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WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS
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PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 # 486
PLANB
Technical View
The SET index held its ground and finally reversed back up as Modi. Sto. reversed to the upside to issue a buy signal again and MACD continued to march higher. In our view, a test of the uptrend channel could still be in store. Supports lie at 1565 and 1545 points while resistances at 1600 and 1640 points.
Stock of The Week
More gains still in store
S50H19 seen sideways down between 1,070-1,040 points. There is increased optimism over the prospect of a US-China trade deal as well as the new election date in Thailand following news of the publishing of a royal decree. However, we still need to keep an eye on few issues expected to put downward pressure on the SET 50 index including the EC and Constitutional Court’s ruling on the 150-day deadline, the likely slower growth in China’s GDP, and real sector’s earnings after the downbeat earnings from big banks.
Spot gold seen to decline towards US$1,310/ozand US$ 1,280/oz. Spot gold lacks new catalysts to drive prices higher but prolonged US government shutdown may keep prices to hold above US$1,280/oz. However, the Brexit deadlock in which May is due to present a ‘plan B’ on Monday and a Commons vote on it will not take place until Jan 29 could cause short-term fluctuations for gold. This week,we advise to watch further China’s 4QFY18 GDP and the US PMI and home sales.
Sideways with bearish bias External pressure remains a drag: Several factors continue to weigh
on the Thai stock market such as (i) PM Theresa May’s failure to get a Brexit deal through Britain’s parliament and she is expected to lay out an alternative plan on Monday, and (ii) the announcement of China’s GDP which is anticipated to miss the target due to the trade war fallout. However, Chinese government may launch additional stimulus measures after it already injected more than US$83,000 into the system.
Internal factors seen steady: Although the prospect of a royal decree calling for the election of MPs being published in the Royal Gazette this week will bring more clarity on the election date in Thailand, this optimism could be tempered by divisions over the specifics of the 150-day timeframe. Meanwhile, there is still some redemption of LTF units, especially when the SET moved near 1600 points which pushed higher the fund redemption by institutional investors. These factors will limit the market's recovery and so we expect the SET to trade sideways with downside bias between 1550-1610 points.
Strategy Team #487
21 - 25 Jan 2019
WEEKLY STATISTICS
Strategy Team #487
www.poems.in.th
PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 # 486
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%T
hai
land
Vie
tnam
Ho
ng k
ong
Ch
ina
Ta
iwa
n
Sin
gapo
re
Mal
aysi
a
Ph
ilip
ine
s
Ko
rea
Indo
nes
ia
Indi
a
WOW MTD YTD
App
reci
atio
nD
epr
eci
atio
n
w-w Asian stock market performances
Performance of major Asian currencies against US dollar
-1.04%
-0.11%
-0.09%
0.23%
0.29%
0.30%
0.33%
0.39%
0.74%
1.00%
1.52%
-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0%
Thailand
Malaysia
Vietnam
China
Philipines
Taiwan
Hong kong
Singapore
India
Indonesia
Korea
21 - 25 Jan 2019
WEEKLY STATISTICS
Strategy Team #487
www.poems.in.th
PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 # 486
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
12 N
ov 1
8
19 N
ov 1
8
26 N
ov 1
8
3 D
ec 1
8
10 D
ec 1
8
17 D
ec 1
8
24 D
ec 1
8
31 D
ec 1
8
7 Ja
n 19
14 J
an 1
9
Thailand Philippines S.Korea Taiwan Vietnam Indonesia India
Unit: Mil US$
Foreign portfolio Flows into 7 ASIAN bourses
Forward P/E ratios of Asian stock markets
21 - 25 Jan 2019
4
Commodity Watch
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PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 # 486
21 - 25 Jan 2019
CUSGHYDF OILA Index Olefin Spread NEX Index (Weekly) Positive Negative BCP, IRPC, PTTGC Positive Negative IRPC, PTTGC, SCC Positive Negative BANPU
TOP
Dubai Aromatic Spread BDI Index Positive Negative BCP, IRPC, PTTGC Positive Negative IRPC, PTTGC, TOP Positive Negative JUTHA, PSL,TTA
TOP, PTTEP
Rubber RSS3 Sugar#11 VIX IndexPositive Negative STA Positive Negative KBS, KSL, KTIS Negative Positive SET Index
Soybeans Cotton GOLD Positive Negative TVO Positive Negative IVL Negative Positive SET IndexNegative Positive CPF, GFPT, TU
Unit: US$/ton Unit: US$/ounce
Unit: US cents/Kg Unit: Cents/Ib
Unit: US cents/bushel
Unit: US$/bbl Unit: US$/ton
Unit: US$/bbl
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
Unit: US$/ton Unit: US$/ton
2
4
6
8
10
Au
g 18
Se
p 18
Oct 1
8
Nov 18
Dec 18
Jan 19
GRM 3.35(-0.49)
20
40
60
80
100
Au
g-18
Se
p-18
Oct-18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan-1
9
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
Au
g-18
Se
p-18
Oct-18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan-1
9
Spread: HDPE-Naphtha (RHS)HDPE (LHS)Naphtha (LHS)
HDPE spread 606.46(-7.47)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Au
g-18
Se
p-18
Oct-18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan-1
9
Spread: Paraxylene-Naphtha (RHS)
Paraxylene (LHS)
Naphtha (LHS)
PX spread 549.32(-59.27)
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-1
8
No
v-18
De
c-18
Jan
-19
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-1
8
No
v-18
De
c-18
Jan
-19
Baltic Dry Index 1055(-134)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-1
8
No
v-18
De
c-18
Jan
-19
VIX index 19.04(-0.46)
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-1
8
No
v-18
De
c-18
Jan
-19
100
120
140
160
180
200
Au
g-18
Se
p-18
Oct-18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan-1
9
Rubber RSS3 162.6(1.3)
0
4
8
12
16
20
Au
g-18
Se
p-18
Oct-18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan-1
9
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Au
g-18
Se
p-18
Oct-18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan-1
9
Soybeans 894.5(-1)40
60
80
100
120
Au
g-18
Se
p-18
Oct-18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan-1
9
Cotton 73.27(0.42)
Dubai 60.07(0.73)
NEX 100.84(+2.39)
Sugar#11 13.17(0.5)
GOLD 1290.5(-1.9)
CG - 2018
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PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 #48618 ม.ค. 62
6
21 - 25 Jan 2019
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PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 #48618 ม.ค. 62
7
Thai CAC (As of May 21, 2018)
Declared Non‐participation Non‐participation
A AI AIE AIRA AJ 2S AAV ABICO ACAP ACC TPIPL TPIPP TPOLY TPP TR
ALUCON AMATAV AOT APCO AQUA ADAM AEC AEONTS AF AFC TRC TRITN TRT TRUBB TSF
ARROW ASIA ASK AU BCH AGE AH AHC AIT AJA TSI TSR TSTE TTA TTL
BJC BJCHI BLAND BR BROCK AKR ALLA ALT AMA AMARIN TTTM TTW TUCC TWP TWZ
BRR CEN CGH CHEWA CHG AMATA AMC ANAN APCS APEX TYCN UAC UBIS UEC UKEM
CHOTI CHOW CIG COL COM7 APURE AQ ARIP AS ASAP UMI UMS UNIQ UP UPF
CPALL CPF CPR CSC EKH ASEFA ASIAN ASIMAR ASN ATP30 UPOIC UT UTP UV UVAN
EPCO FC FER FPI FSMART AUCT BA BAT‐3K BCPG BDMS VARO VI VNG VPO VTE
GEL GFPT GGC GIFT GJS BEAUTY BEC BEM BFIT BGRIM WG WHAUP WIN WINNER WORK
GLOBAL GOLD GPSC GREEN GSTEL BGT BH BIG BIZ BKD WORLD WP WPH WR XO
GUNKUL HARN IFS ILINK INET BLISS BM BOL BPP BSBM YCI YNP YUASA ZIGA ZMICO
IRC J JMART JMT JUBILE BSM BTC BTNC BTW BUI
JUTHA KASET KBS KCAR KTECH CBG CCET CCP CGD CHARAN
KWC KYE L&E LEE LIT CHO CHUO CI CITY CK
LVT MAKRO MATCH MATI MBAX CKP CMO CMR CNT COLOR
MC MFEC MIDA MILL ML COMAN CPH CPL CRANE CRD
MTLS NBC NCL NEP NINE CSP CSR CSS CTW CWT
NMG NNCL NTV NUSA NWR D DCON DCORP DELTA DIGI
OGC PACE PAF PAP PATO DNA DTCI EA EARTH EASON
PCSGH PIMO PK PL PLANB ECF EE EFORL EIC EMC
POST PRINC PRO PSTC PYLON EPG ERW ESSO ESTAR ETE
QTC ROH ROJNA RWI SANKO EVER F&D FANCY FMT FN
SAUCE SC SCCC SCN SEAOIL FOCUS FORTH FTE FVC GC
SE‐ED SENA SIRI SMART SPACK GENCO GL GLAND GRAMMY GRAND
SPPT SPRC SR SRICHA SST GTB GYT HFT HOTPOT HPT
STA SUPER SUSCO SWC SYMC HTECH HYDRO ICHI ICN IEC
TAKUNI TBSP TFI THE TICON IHL III INGRS INOX INSURE
TIP TKN TLUXE TMILL TMT IRCP IT ITD ITEL JAS
TNP TPA TRUE TSE TTI JCT JSP JTS JWD KAMART
TU TVD TVO TVT TWPC KC KCM KDH KIAT KKC
U UPA UREKA UWC VGI KOOL KTIS KWG LALIN LDC
VIBHA VIH VNT WAVE WHA LH LOXLEY LPH LRH LST
WICE WIIK LTX M MACO MAJOR MALEE
MANRIN MAX M‐CHAI MCS MDX
Certified MEGA METCO MGT MJD MK
ADVANC AKP AMANAH AP ASP MM MODERN MPG MPIC NC
AYUD BAFS BANPU BAY BBL NCH NDR NETBAY NEW NEWS
BCP BKI BLA BROOK BTS NFC NOBLE NOK NPK NPP
BWG CENTEL CFRESH CIMBT CM NVD NYT OHTL OISHI ORI
CNS CPI CPN CSL DCC OTO PAE PDG PERM PF
DEMCO DIMET DRT DTAC DTC PICO PJW PLANET PLE PMTA
EASTW ECL EGCO FE FNS POLAR POMPUI PPM PRAKIT PRECHA
FSS GBX GCAP GLOW HANA PRIN PRM PTL RAM RCI
HMPRO HTC ICC IFEC INTUCH RCL RICH RICHY RJH ROCK
IRPC IVL K KBANK KCE RP RPC RPH RS S
KGI KKP KSL KTB KTC S11 SAFARI SALEE SAM SAMART
LANNA LHBANK LHK LPN MBK SAMCO SAMTEL SAPPE SAWAD SAWANG
MBKET MCOT MFC MINT MONO SCI SCP SDC SE SEAFCO
MOONG MSC MTI NKI NSI
OCC OCEAN PB PDI PE SELIC SF SFP SGF SHANG
PG PHOL PLAT PM PPP SIAM SIMAT SKN SKR SKY
PPS PRANDA PREB PRG PSH SLP SMK SMM SMT SOLAR
PSL PT PTG PTT PTTEP SPA SPALI SPCG SPG SPORT
PTTGC Q‐CON QH QLT RATCH SPVI SQ SSC SSP STANLY
RML ROBINS S & J SABINA SAT STAR STEC STHAI STPI SUC
SCB SCC SCG SGP SINGER SUTHA SVH SVOA SYNEX T
SIS SITHAI SMIT SMPC SNC TACC TAPAC TASCO TC TCB
SNP SORKON SPC SPI SSF TCC TCCC TCJ TCOAT TEAM
SSI SSSC SVI SYNTEC TAE TFD TFMAMA TGPRO TH THAI
TCAP TCMC TFG TGCI THANI THANA THIP THL TIC TIW
THCOM THRE THREL TIPCO TISCO TK TKS TM TMC TMI
TKT TMB TMD TNITY TNL TMW TNDT TNH TNPC TNR
TOG TOP TPCORP TRU TSC TOA TOPP TPAC TPBI TPCH
TSTH TTCL TVI UOBKH WACOAL
Companies participating in Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against
Corruption programme (Thai CAC) under Thai Institute of Directors (as of May 21, 2018)
Contact Information of Hong Kong Representatives
Research
Benny WANG
Dealing Director
(852) 2277 6720
ZHANG Jing
Research Analyst
Transportation and Automobiles
(86) 21 51699400-103
Terry LI
Research Analyst
TMT, Education and Finance
(852) 2277 6527
Sales
Eurus ZHOU
Research Analyst
Pharmaceutical and Consumer
(852) 2277 6515
Tracy KU
Research Analyst
Retail and Property
(852) 2277 6516
Aric AU Yoshikazu SHIKITA
Manager, Corporate & Institutional Sales Manager, International Sales
(852) 2277 6783 (852) 2277 6624
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS
Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks
> +20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price
+5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20% upside from the current price
-5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within +/- 5% from the current price
-5% to -20% Reduce 4 -5% to -20% downside from the current price
< -20% Sell 5 -20% downside from the current price
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock’s risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
GENERAL DISCLAIMER
This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited (“PSHK”), which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for regulated activities, including Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securities). This publication was originally prepared by analysts from our overseas affiliates. The information contained herein is based on sources that PSHK and its affiliates believe to be accurate and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and is not intended to provide tailored investment advice and does not take into account the individual financial situation and objectives of any specific
person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of any investments or securities discussed or recommended in this report. This report is not (and should not be construed as) a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on such business in that jurisdiction. This research report may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part or and any form or manner, without the express written consent of PSHK. Please direct any enquiries to [email protected].
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