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Mikio Ishiwatari, PhD Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist World Bank Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water Sector Twenty-first Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change “Technology Development and Transfer of Environmentally Sound Technologies in the Asia-Pacific Region” July 26, 2012, Tokyo

Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

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Page 1: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Mikio Ishiwatari, PhD

Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist

World Bank

Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation

in Water Sector

Twenty-first Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change

“Technology Development and Transfer of Environmentally Sound

Technologies in the Asia-Pacific Region”

July 26, 2012, Tokyo

Page 2: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Contents

1. What’s happened in Japan? And how to

adapt?

2. What is adaptation in water sector?

3. Lessons from Great East Japan Earthquake: to

prepare for unexpected (or uncertain) events

4. Conclusion

Page 3: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

1. What’s happened in Japan?

How to adapt?

Page 4: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

0

5

10

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

1976 1986 1987 1997 1998 2008

Daily rainfall over 200mm is significantly increasing

Recent change on Climate in Japan

Average

3.5 days

1901 1930

1978 2007

Hourly rainfall over 100mm is increasing

Incidence of daily rainfall over 200mm per year

Average

5.1 days

year

Nu

mb

er o

f incid

en

ce

Incidence of hourly rainfall over 100mm per year

Nu

mb

er o

f incid

en

ce

year

Average

1.7 days

Average

2.0 days

Average

3.6 days

Source: JMA

Page 5: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

5

lRainfall after 100years is projected to increase 10 to 30% (max. 50%)

lbigger increase in northern area

Increasing rainfall intensity make flood safety level

significantly lower than present

Flo

od

Sa

fety

Lev

el

Decline of

flood safety level

Future rainfall projected as a median value in each region Average rainfall in 2080-2099 Average rainfall in 1979-1998 The maximum daily precipitation GCM20 (A1B scenario).

Projection of future Climate

Pre

sen

t

Page 6: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

3. Impacts of

droughts

Source: Water Resources in Japan 2007, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

Legend

1.4

1.2- 1.4

1.0 - 1.2

0.8- 1.0

< 0.8

Comparison between present conditions(1979 to 1998)

and future rainfall(2080 to 2099) in Class A rivers

After 100 years, rainfall decrease in March - June

More frequent and serious droughts

Page 7: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas

(Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe)

*Prepared by the River Bureau based on the national

land-use digital information.

*Shown are the areas at elevations lower than sea level

shown in a three-dimensional mesh (1 km x 1 km). Total

area and population are based on three-dimensional

data.

*No areas of surfaces of rivers or lakes are included.

*A premium of 60% is applied to the potential flood risk

area and to the population vulnerable to flood risk in the

case with a one-meter rise of sea level.

Increasing areas with flood risks

Increase of areas below sea level,

and of inundation risks

Ise Bay

Kawagoemachi to Tohkai City

Osaka Bay

Ashiya City to Osaka City

Tokyo Bay

Yokohoma City to Chiba City

Ise Bay

Kawagoemachi to Tohkai City

Osaka Bay

Ashiya City to Osaka City

Tokyo Bay

Yokohoma City to Chiba City

593

879

. 404

577 Area k

X

59.3

879

Prediction

40.4 Population (,000)

. 577

Current

)

Page 8: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

8

Present Future (100years later) 100

Runoff

regulation

measures in

basin

Crisis management

and Evacuation

Runoff

regulation

measures in

basin

Collaboration with regional Development

Crisis management and Evacuation

Reevaluated

safety level

Present

Safety Level

deteriorate

significantly by

increase of rainfall

1/40 40

Target of

Safety

Level

Target of

Safety Level

Basic concept for managing increasing risks - Multiple measures in flood management -

Page 9: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Recommendations

in coastal and low-lying areas:

- More frequent heavy rains and more intense typhoons

Frequent and serious flood and sediment disasters

- Sea level rise and more intense typhoons

Frequent and serious high tides and coastal erosions

- Wider range of variation of rainfall intensity and change of river flow

Frequent and serious droughts

- More frequent heavy rains and more intense typhoons

- Sea level rise and more intense typhoons

- Wider range of variation of rainfall intensity and change of river flow

Recommendation Basic policy

1. Adaptation measures to achieve “zero casualty”

Paradigm shift from ‘’Zero damage’’

2. Keeping national functions

In strategic centers, such as the Tokyo Metropolitan area,

Page 10: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

2. What is adaptation in water sector?

Page 11: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Issues: “Stationarity is Dead” (Milly et al., 2008)

Under changing and uncertain climate ü Climate is changing

Return period (ex. 100-year flood or 10-year drought) is never foundation of planning

ü Prediction possible, but with uncertainty

☺Conventional Method of Water Planning Assumption: rainfall pattern fluctuate within unchanging envelope of variability

New Designing methods of water infrastructures are needed

River bank heights, reserve capacity, bridge heights etc.

Furthermore……

Page 12: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Can we continue to construct higher dykes

according to increasing flood scale?

“Stationarity is Dead” Is flood Control Philosophy Dead, as well?

Source: MLIT

Page 13: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Can we continue to construct higher dykes

according to increasing flood scale?

“Stationarity is Dead” Is flood Control Philosophy Dead, as well?

Page 14: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Target setting1) Strategic Area Protection by Structural Measures

2) Land Use Regulation3) Community-based Risk Management

conventional project> Climate Change Adaptation Project

Run-off Analysis

Target settingTo decide target floods scale based on probability analysis

Historical hydro-metrological data

Structural Measures

such as

river bank, and dam

Non-structural Measures such

as flood early warning

Historical hydro-metrological data

probability analysis on target floods

Runoff and Inundation analy sis

Climate Change Prediction

Evaluation on Impact on Extreme Events by

Climate Change

Coping Mechanism Analysis

River Basin Governance

Structural Measures

Non-structural Measures

early warning,

Evacuation

MonitoringPoverty Alleviation,

Vulnerability Consideration

CBDM

Urban, Regional Planning

land use regulation

Objective: to mitigate human and economic losses

Objective: to minimize human loss

<Project> Project

Proposed Method for CCA Planning

Page 15: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Muar

Climate change prediction

Impact on Extreme Event

Pahang River Basin, Malaysia

• Once in 100 year rainfall in 2050 • Multi-model ensemble of GCM

Source: JICA

Page 16: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

• Catchments 1,778km2

• Precipitation 1,500-2,000mm

25-yr return period

4,200 in present

4,650-4,800 in 2050

5,000-5,300 in 2100

Case Study Tagoloan River Basin,

the Philippines

Source: JICA

Page 17: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Increase

rate of

rainfall

intensity

(%)

Design rainfall

(mm)

Probable Flood

Discharge

(m3/s) Scenario

Return

period

(year)

5yr 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr 25yr 50yr

Status quo - 125 142 164 181 198 4190 4770

A1F1 2050 11 150 170 197 217 237 4780 5720

2100 14 161 183 211 233 255 5400 6150

B1 2050 20 138 157 182 200 219 4650 5290

2100 29 142 162 187 206 225 5030 5430

50 yrs flood → 25yr flood in 2050

100 yrs flood → 25-50yr flood in 2100

Source: JICA

Page 18: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Revising Plan

Original MP Revised MP

Source: JICA

Page 19: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Framework Document on

Water and Climate change Adaptation For Leaders and Policy-makers in the Asia-Pacific Region

Source: ADB

Page 20: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Principle 1 - Usable Knowledge

We must support to scientists and practitioners to work

together and develop knowledge that leads effective actions

and increases public awareness:

Action

Develop data infrastructure and networking for sharing

data, information and knowledge to support decision-

making and to raise public awareness

Action

Accelerate scientific efforts to improve use of climate

projections for countries, river basins and cities and to

quantify and reduce the related uncertainty

Page 21: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

3.Lessons from Great East Japan Earthquake:

to prepare for unexpected (or uncertain)

events

Page 22: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

190km / 300km

damage / total

fukushima

MLIT

Dyke Height

tsunami height

We cannot prevent disaster and

have to prepare for unexpected

Page 23: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Lesson: Integrated approach, putting evacuation at the center

“To take integrated approach, putting evacuation at the center of DRM system, and combining a wide range of measures”

20,000: not 500 (Chile tsunami 2010) • Hazard map showed limited risk

area • Tsunami Warning misled

evacuation, increasing death toll

20,000: not 500,000 • DRM education: “Kamaishi Miracle” • Community-based DRM

Fire corps

Sendai City

Inundated

Hazard Maps

Source: CAO

Page 24: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Land raising of

residential area

Tsunami

Dyke

Tsunami mitigation

structure

(multi-purpose)

Tsunami mitigation structure

(inland lock gate)

Evacuation route

Evacuation site

Tsunami Disaster Special protection Zone (orange

zone)

Zone designated by ordinance (red zone)

Tsunami Protection Zone (yellow zone) (1) Planning evacuation (facilities, routes,

drills, information delivery, etc)

(2) Hazard maps

(3) Agreement on evacuation facilities

(4) Evacuation plan and evacuation drills

living space

under tsunami miliving space

over tsunami

l

o

Tsunami Disaster Special Protection Zone

Tsunami

risk area

Page 25: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

4. Conclusion Technology transfer to prepare for

unexpected or uncertain events

1. Prediction and estimation technology

(climate change and risk)

2. Understand uncertainty and limitation of

technology

3. Integrated or cross-sector approach

Page 26: Technology Transfer of Climate Change Adaptation in Water ... · Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe) *Prepared

Thank you

Mikio Ishiwatari, PhD

[email protected]