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Technology Roles in an Ecosystem Model of Technology Evolution

Third Intelligent Storage Workshop

May 5th, 2005

Gediminas AdomaviciusJesse C. Bockstedt

Alok GuptaRobert J. Kauffman

Motivation

> The current environment of business related technologies is extremely complex and dynamic.

> Forecasting for technological evolution is difficult.

> Current analytical models for technology evolution are complicated and incomplete.

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Problem

> Explain the evolution of a technology and account for complex system of factors that influences its development

> Model related technologies and their evolution with respect to the analysis of the evolution of a given technology

> Provide insight for technology development decision making and forecasting purposes

Population Perspective

x

xxxx

xx

xxx

xx

xx

xx

xx

x

x

xxx

xx

Characteristic SpaceStorage Capacity

Command Processing Time

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Hierarchical Model

PersonalDigital

Photography

DigitalCamera

PhotoPrinter

DriveMotor

PrintHead

InkCartridge

ColorLCD

CMOSSensor

System of Use

Products

Components

Ecosystem View

> Population of technologies with specific roles

> Relationships between technologies

> A set of resources (firms)

> External environmental forces

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Ecosystem View

Roles of Technologies in an Ecosystem

> Component Role

> Product and Application Role

> Support and Infrastructure Role

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Specific Ecosystem View

Disk-DriveMP3Player

Step 1

Solid-state MP3Player

Step 2

Compact DiscPlayer

Step 2

Color LCD

Step 3

HardDisk Drive

Step 3

Flash Memory Drive

Step 3

Laser Lens

Step 3

SD Flash Memory Cards

Step 4Online Digital Music Retailer

Step 4

Compact Discs

Step 4Support andInfrastructure Layer

Product and Application Layer

Component Layer

Temporal Aspect of Technology Ecosystem

Components

Products / Applications

Support / Infrastructure

802.11 Standard

Wireless Hotspots

802.11a Components

802.11b Components

1st

Generation Wi-Fi

Devices

2nd

Generation Wi-Fi

Devices

3nd

Generation Wi-Fi

Devices

Wireless Hotspot Growth

Wireless Encryption

and Security

802.11g Components

802.11b Integrated Wireless

WiMAXComponents

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Temporal Aspect

Future state of the technology

ecosystem

Present state of the

technology ecosystem

C P* C I*

P I*P P*

I I*

P C*

I C* I P*

Component Innovation

Product/Application Innovation

Support/Infrastructure Innovation

C C*

P P*

I I*

C C*

Overview of Individual Paths of Influence

Support EvolutionExamples: growth of mobile cellular phone network, Internet 2.0

Infrastructure-Leveraging Product Development

Examples: instant messaging services, picture mail

Infrastructure-DrivenComponent Development

Examples: Internet technologies, 802.11g Wi-Fi equipment

Infrastructure Present State

Diffusion and AdoptionExamples: digital camera infrastructure, software applications designed for Windows OS

Product Integration and EvolutionExamples: camera phones, Wi-Fi enabled PDAs

Product-Driven Component Development

Examples: Blue-ray DVD, Digital Encryption Technology

Product Present State

Standards and Infra-structure Development

Examples: XML, RFID

Design and CompilationExamples: digital camera, MP3 players, PCs

Component EvolutionExamples: microprocessors and Moore's Law, digital camera mega- pixels.

Component Present State

InfrastructureFuture State

ProductFuture State

Component Future State

Infrastructure-Oriented

Paths of Influence

Product-OrientedPaths of Influence

Component-OrientedPaths of Influence

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Paths of Influence Conceptual Model

Intelligent Storage Case Study

EthernetEnterprise storage systems (RAID, SAN, NAS, object-based)Internet and database connectivityCommunication protocols (HTTP, FTP, TCP/IP)File systems (NFS, CFIS, OSD file systems)

Infrastructure/Support (Layer C)

Personal computers / laptopsServersPersonal devices (MP3 players, digital cameras, PDAs, personal

video recorders)

Product/Application (Layer B)

Hard disk drivesTape-based storageOptical storage (DVD, CD)Solid-state storage (RAM, flash) Computer interfaces (serial, parallel, IEEE 1394 Firewire, USB,

SCSI, PCMIA, ATA, Fiber Channel)

Component (Layer A)

TechnologiesLayer

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Intelligent Storage Case Study

> Storage components evolve to support intelligence and object-based storage (C C*)

> “Smart” personal media devices that utilize attribute based storage techniques (C P*, P P*)

> Intelligent storage technologies for maintainability, recovery, and network and system performance (I C*, I P*)

Intelligent Storage Case Study

Identify patterns of innovation in the ecosystem

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Continuing Research

> External drivers and environmental forces

> Firm level of analysis

> Resources

> Algorithms and analytical models using ecosystem concepts.

Summary

> Take a system-view of technology evolution: > Individual technologies do not evolve in isolation> The ecosystem around a technology impacts its evolution

> Importance of domain knowledge

> Ecosystem model provides necessary structure for analyzing technology evolution