UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT

MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT

9-10 April 2014

Technology options to flexibly cope with stochastic renewable resources including

the role of biofuels or synthetic fuels

by

Prof Daniel Favrat Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)

Energy Center and

Member of WFEO Executive and Energy Committees ( World Federation of Engineering Organizations)

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of

UNCTAD.

Technology options to flexibly cope with stochastic renewable resources including

the role of biofuels or synthetic fuels

Prof Daniel Favrat

Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) Energy Center and member of WFEO Executive and Energy Committees ( World Federation of Engineering Organizations) 1 1

Major trends Worldwide

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400 800 1200 1600 2000 year

0

1000

5000

7000

[Millio

ns]

population

0.

10

20

30

en

erg

ie [

Gte

p]

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

yearly primary energy consumption

En

erg

y

450ppm

230

250

270

290

310

330

350

CO

2 [

pp

m]

mean CO2 concentration in atmosphere

400ppm (2013)

Global environment is a major concern

Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014

We need innovation towards less

degradation and lower emissions • Physics: conservation of mass and energy

• The confusion about the term energy:

• from the Greek word , « containing work»

• But: driving forces result from unbalances (of exergy

levels, of concentration in materials and fluids,....)

• Nature is a story of degradation: By degrading high

“exergy” value from the Sun, Earth is able to generate

vegetation and ultimately fuels and food for animals and

humans

• Degradation is part of life..... But

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would be sustainable if the tremendous

potential of the Sun-Earth-Space

unbalance would be used properly to:

• satisfy energy services

• recycle materials and wastes

• clean or dessalinate water , .....

Hence efficient use of commodities and

renewable Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014

Degradation is part of life ...But

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The world energy demand until 2035 IEA current policies

IEA Outlook 2010

A rather modest target !

Renewable 13%

Renewable 14.5%

Non linear scale Worl

d e

nerg

y d

em

an

d [

Mto

e]

5

Share of electricity generation by source (New Policy Scenario)

WEO2012© OECD/IEA 6

But significant growth of renewable electricity everywhere

Exploiting renewable: the daily and seasonal variations

• Solar: daily cycles + cloud/clear hours • Wind: stochastic with dead periods (> a week) • Hydro run of river: seasonal

• Geothermal: relatively constant

• Storage is the key

• The most flexible: • hydro accumulation • fuel (wood, wastes, biofuels, H2 or fossil)

conversion units 7

Storage scales and technologies • For hourly and daily fluctuations: • Hydro pump storage whenever possible even

envisaged at small scale (16 kV level) • Compressed air (including compressed compressed

and hydro) • Batteries (ex: Li-Titanate with or without supercaps)

• For seasonal variations: • Hydro dams but often far from sufficient • Advanced conversion from fuels (either fossil, biofuels

or synthetic fuels (power to gas or power to liquid fuels

• Engines with ORC waste heat conversion, • Fuel cells (SOFC) or hybrid SOFC-GT with CO2

separation 8

Statement and medium term vision

• Fossil fuels are still the cheapest and less

cumbersome way to store energy

• Liquid and gaseous fossil fuels should be

essentially used to backup renewable

energies, in particular the stochastic ones

(less and less used for base load production)

• In a longer term replaced by synthetic fuels

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Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014 http://energycenter.epfl.ch

SYNTHETIC HYDROCARBONS

ELECTROLYSIS

CO2

O2

O2

SUN

ENERGY

ENERGY

n CO2 + (3n+1) H2 CH3-(CH2)n-2- CH3 + 2n H2O

H2O

-(CH2)n-

COMBUSTION

H2

CO2

H2O

H2O

H2O H2 + ½O2

SYNTHESIS

H2 O2

H2O

OH-

e-

e-

Electrolyte

KOH/H2O

H OH-

H2

H2OH2O

O2

O2

H2O

Slide from Prof Züttel

10

Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014 http://energycenter.epfl.ch

Renewable fuel refinery based on H2 CO2 and N2

11 Slide from Prof Züttel

Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014 http://energycenter.epfl.ch

Swiss seasonal variations highlighted by Swiss energyscope.ch , a platform for energy scenarios

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The example of Switzerland: Future renewable electricity

Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014 http://energycenter.epfl.ch

Renewable technologies have significant requirements for: - materials - embedded energy

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Trend of the World production (in metric tons of 14 minerals and metals)

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2 000 000 000

2 500 000 000

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World production (in metric tons) of 14 minerals and metals essential to the world economy, from 1919 to 2007

(Al, Cu, Pb, Zn, Fe, Cr, Phosphate rock, K20, Pt Group Metals, Co, Au, Mn, Ni, Baryte)Data source: USGS Data series 140 - http://minerals.usgs.g

The

BRIC

take-off

The

BRIC

take-off

In about 90 years the world productionof the listed commodities was multiplied by

20! with a strong acceleration since 2002,

while the world population grew only by a factor of

3.6!.

• In 90 years:

• Population growth by 3.6

• Production of minerals &metals by 20

(Al,Cu,Pb,Zn,Fe,Cr,…..)

From Varet (BRGM) and USGS Data Series 140

1 500 000 000

2 000 000 000

http://www.divex.ca/documents/acfaspresentations2013/Varet13

%20economie%20mat%20premieres%20ACFAS.pdf

Diversification of the economy towards other (“small”) metals

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Une table de Mendeleïev de plus en plus sollicitée:

diversification de l’ économie vers les « petits métaux »

Source: Varet BRGM

Evolution of the number of “small” metals

Years 1980s: 10

Years 1990s: 15

Years 2000s: 60

http://www.divex.ca/documents/acfaspresentations2013/Varet13

%20economie%20mat%20premieres%20ACFAS.pdf

Diversification of the economy towards other (“small”) metals

Innovation towards sustainability

From a non sustainable abundance to: • An energy and materials moderated approach (eco

efficient energy and materials use, increased use of renewable, proper waste management including for CO2 and nuclear wastes)

Need for innovation • with novel indicators (both technical and economical) • Novel design and planning methods ( holistic, LCA,

etc.) • Integrated systems with advanced technologies

17 Let us manage efficiently our commodities

Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014 http://energycenter.epfl.ch

Thank you for your

attention !

18