Technology ForesightsBiofuel (Biodiesel)

Agenda• Introduction• As-is• To-be • Conclusion

Introduction

Technology Foresights • This term “Technology Foresight” took off in the 1990s, each

countries sought new policy tools to deal with problems in their science, technology and innovation systems (Miles,2010)

• The term “foresight” has long been used to describe readiness to deal with long-term issues (especially on the part of governments) (Miles,2010)

Biofuel • A gaseous, liquid, or solid substance of biological origin that

is used as a fuel (Collins English Dictionary)• One type of renewable energy and alternative energy

sources may potentially inhibit the development and maturation of longer-term technologies that have greater potential to correct the harmful effects of fossil-fuel dependence (Charles, Ryan, Ryan, & Oloruntoba, 2007)

About Biodiesel

BiodieselA biofuel intended for use in diesel engines (Collins English Dictionary). It is output from refining a range of biomass* materials and can be use as transport fuel (Taylor. 2008)

• A well-established technology• Generally methyl esters made by transesterification*. • FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Ester) or FAEE (Fatty Acid Ethyl Ester)• A common FAME is RME, made from oil-seed rape• Renewable raw material: vegetable oils (rapeseed oil, sunflower

oil, soy oil, palm oil), animal fat or used cooking/frying oil • Co-products: glycerine and animal feed• Used in compression ignition diesel systems• Mixable with fossil diesel (pure, B100, or blended, B10, B20…)

* Transesterification - A feedstock oil or fat reacts with methanol and a catalyst, usually potassium hydroxide or sodium hydroxide.* Biomass - Organic matter

ObjectiveAccording European Council's proposal for an Energy Police for Europe, March 2006. The Central objectives of energy policy are:• Environmental, Social, Economic sustainability • Competitiveness • Energy supply security• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020, scale up to 30% if

other developed countries make comparable efforts (below 1990 levels)• Improving energy efficiency by 20% by 2020• Raising the share of renewable energy to 20% by 2020• Increasing the level of biofuels in transport fuel to 10% by 2020

*Climate action and renewable energy package, a legislative proposal from the European Commission 23 Jan 2008

Purpose

• The purpose of this project is to analyze the technology of biofuel nowadays and in future

General Information about Biofuel

• Natural alternative from other fossil fuels and is attained from living or biological material that has just died.

• Produced by using ethanol from naturally grown plant matter which allows for a more sustainable and environmentally friendly earth.

source:http://www.biofuelwatch.org/

General Information about Biofuel

• It is a green fuel and clean, does not contribute to the carbon dioxide (CO2) burden and produces drastically reduced engine emissions. It is non-toxic and biodegradable.

• In principle, biofuels are a way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional transport fuels

• The main types of biofuel for transport are biodiesel and bioethanol

• Biofuels may be used in ordinary vehicle engines, unmodified for low blends or with modifications for higher blends

Source:http://www.farmersguardian.com/home/hot-topics/biofuels/32011.article

World biomass shipping today

Current Trend

• Biofuel has become an alternative energy source explored• Palm biofuel program since 1982 • Homegrown indigenous palm biodiesel production technologies

As-Is : Biodiesel Foresight

Pest & Pestel analysis

PEST & PESTEL analysisPolitical Economic

The Malaysian government to subsidies the price of biodiesel for the local biodiesel industry

Political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa driving crude oil prices above US $100 a barrel

The Malaysian government launched the National Biofuel Policy in 2006 and a series of supporting measures to promote sector development

Malaysian Biofuel Industry Act 2007

Malaysian biodiesel exports dropped by 60% in 2010 to 90 000 tons, with many producers unable to maintain operations due to the high cost of production

The government subsidy is unlikely to be sufficient to offset the high cost of production

The European Union was the largest biodiesel export market, accounting for 119 000 tons (or 52.4% of total biodiesel exports), followed by the United States with 40 000 tons (17.4%)

Biodiesel will cost an additional MYR0.04–0.05 a liter compared to petroleum diesel

Cont.PEST & PESTEL analysis

Political Economic The Biofuel Working Committee

evaluates and makes recommendations on the applications, which are then submitted to the Biofuel Licensing Committee for consideration and approval

Another certification system, the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) system, as a means of securing entry into the European biofuel market. The ISCC is a global certification system for biomass and biofuels that is approved by the German Federal Agency for Agriculture and Food

MPOB has provided a start-up fund worth MYR1 million each to the five petroleum companies operating in the country: BHP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Petronas and Shell

A company with pioneer status is granted tax exemption on at least 70% of its statutory income for 5 years

Companies that are at least 51% Malaysian owned, with export potential in the rubber, palm oil and wood-based industries, are eligible for ‘Reinvestment Incentives for Resource-Based Industries’. These companies can apply for another 5 years of pioneer status or ITA for reinvestment in expansion

Cont.

Socio-cultural Technological

Certification under the RSPO requires palm oil producers to meet 8 principles and 39 criteria covering best management practices, social responsibility and environmental considerations in order for their palm oil to be labeled as ‘Certified Sustainable Palm Oil’

Immigration is increasing

If biodiesel projects meet certain criteria, they may also be considered for ‘Incentives for High Technology Companies’ or ‘Incentives for Commercialization of Research and Development Findings of the Public Sector in Resource Based Industries’

Cont.Environmental (ecological) Legal

Land - legal gazettement of forest areas Greenhouse gas emission The expansion of agricultural land for

the cultivation of biofuel feedstock’s raises concerns about deforestation, biodiversity loss, land conflicts, competition with land for food and an increase in carbon emissions from land use change

The Environmental Quality (Prescribed Activities) (Environmental Impact Assessment) Order 1987

The Sabah Environment Protection Enactment 2002 and the Sabah Environment Protection (Prescribed Activities) Order 2005

The Sarawak the Natural Resources and Environment (Prescribed Activities) Order 1994

Malaysian Biofuel Industry Act 2007 (Act 666)

The Malaysian government launched the National Biofuel Policy in 2006 and a series of supporting measures to promote sector development

MS 2008:2008, the quality standard for 100% biodiesel (B100) was published in 2008, largely based on the European standard EN 14214, with some minor modifications suggested by the Technical Committee on Petroleum Fuels

The Environmental Quality (Prescribed Activities) (Environmental Impact Assessment) Order 1987

The Sabah Environment Protection Enactment 2002 and the Sabah Environment Protection (Prescribed Activities) Order 2005

The Sarawak the Natural Resources and Environment (Prescribed Activities) Order 1994

Case Study

• Powering the Future of Flight in UK• Solena will produce large amounts of aviation biofuel

(by processing municipal waste) for British Airways and others airways.

• Convert all forms of biomass into clean renewable energy

• Offer a unique opportunity for aviation to decarbonizes over the short-medium term.

• Zero waste to landfill target by 2025

Case Study

• The plant have a major effect on Co2 and greenhouse gas reduction.

• Providing air quality benefits when the fuel is burned• The project will generate around 1,000 jobs in

London

Advanced biofuels key R&D issues

Achivement

To-Be : Biodiesel Foresight

• To create situation when biodiesel do make significant and sustainable contribution to renewable energy source in the future.• The technology already exist to meet 2020 target, emphasis

would be on optimization and implement the best technology much more widely on next decade.

• New technology such convert waste to bioethanol would increase over longer term to achieve higher target after 2020

• Biofuel play a complementary role in substituting for oil , prospect to run hybrid electric/biofuel in future

To-Be : Biodiesel Foresight .. (cont..)

• Biodiesel comsumption would be provisioned by domestic production and by import, depend on economic terms, diversify biofuel source in such countries

• Would be regulated by global standard and have a leading way to establish itself

• This sector would provide significant opportunities for Malaysian firms – create new supply chain in industry

• Overcoming the obstacles such as land use change and Green House Gas (GHG) emissions.

Biodiesel Foresight .. Rudolf Diesel (1912)In a 1912 speech Diesel said, “...The use of vegetable oils for engine fuels may seem insignificant today, but such oils may become, in the course of time, as important as petroleum and the coal tar products of the present time.”

ConclusionTechnology foresight for biodiesel has responded requests from the government leaders for more detailed analysis of the sustainable growth pathway for biofuels, as a key carbon mitigation technology. The biofuel roadmap is intended to be a process that evolves to take into account new technology developments, policies and international collaboration efforts. The roadmap has been designed with milestones that the international community can use to ensure that biofuel development efforts are on track to achieve reductions in GHG emissions that are required by 2050 in a sustainable manner. The IEA*, together with government, industry and NGO stakeholders are working together on it, to make sure the biofuel roadmap actions will be successfully implement in this world

*IEA : International Energy Agency