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Technology Forecasting
Data Examples provided by Technology Futures, Inc. Austin, TX by permission
Five key impacts on Technology Forecasting
Technical Social Environmental Legal Political
Types of Forecasts
Surveillance Normative (Goal Oriented) Expert Opinion Integrative (Scenarios) Projective
Surveillance READ EVERYTHING!!!!!
The EconomistWired
Nov 2003: Smart Bandages, Superglue for sutures, Growth Hormones, Open source computing for medicine, Modafinil for insomnia, Heart tissue regeneration
Business 2.0Historians
Groups exist that do this professionallySRIDATACOMTechnology Futures, Inc.
Expert Opinion
Seeking definition of the knowable future
Single Expert Committee Surveys Groups Delphi Structured Interviews
Nominal Group Technique
Outline of goals and methods by moderator
Silent, independent generation of ideas
Silent, written presentation of ideas
Discussion of ideas Silent independent voting
Using Expert Opinion More Effectively
Surveys-Traditional Samplingeffective only if the general
population knows the subject Groups-Focus, brainstorming,
nominal group technique Delphi
effective if it is a new technology known only by a few experts
Implications Wheel
Potential topics (select one-well defined innovation, trend, decision
Write a concise statement (hub) Areas of direct, immediate
impact (1st ring) Impacts of direct impacts (2nd
ring) Higher order impacts (3rd and
4th ring)
General Rules of Thumb
If a technology achieves worldwide standardization, it will tend to see explosive growth.Fax Machines
Standardization can be through standards bodies (CCITT, IEEE, etc.) or defacto industry standard (Windows and Intel).
Trend Analysis
Looking for the roots of change Trend Extrapolation
What happens if this trend keeps going?
Constant percentage rate of improvement
Growth models and performance envelopes
Precursor DevelopmentsHas this happened before?
Accuracy is More Critical Than Precision
Precise, but not accurate.
Accurate, but not precise.
Will These Targets Match the Competition?
The Real Competitive Targets
The Compound Interest Approach to Competitive Performance
Trend of Costs for Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM Chips)
U.S. Farm Technology Improvements
Effective Costs of Cellular Telephone Service in Current Dollars
Bell System Employee Productivity
Bell System Employee Productivity
Constant Percentage Rate of Improvement
Most new technologies fit this trend pattern
Rates will remain the same if the basic assumptions are unchanged: The improvement is technically possible The product demand/need continues Basic approach remains the same
Subsidies may increase short term rates
Laws and regulations may decrease short term rates
Growth Models and Performance Envelopes
A frequently observed pattern for technologies which have natural limitsex. how many eggs can a
chicken physically lay each day? therefore, what is the maximum
possible egg production rate for a Tyson chicken farm?
Growth Model Forecast of Egg Production Model
Average Cost of Residential Electric Service in 1967 Dollars
Airline Development-1
Airline Development
Year Seats Speed Seat MPH
Type
1927 10 100 1,000 Ford Trimotor
1932 14 140 2,000 Various Ave
1937 21 190 4,000 Douglas DC-3
1942 40 200 8,000 Douglas DC-4
1947 50 320 16,000 Lockheed 749
1952 64 500 32,000 DeHavilland Comet
1957 64,000
Airliner Development -2
Airliner Development-3
Airliner Development-4
Airliner Development-5
Natural Limits and Constraints
Setting Competitive Targets
Precursor Patterns and Trends
Random Access Memory Historical Development
Annual Sales of Consumer Electronics (sales in $1,000s)
How Can You Judge a Forecast Before the Fact?
Are assumptions specified? Is quantitative evidence included? Does it follow a path of logic? Is the projected rate of
improvement comparable to prior rates?
If the forecast breaks from the past are substantial reasons offered?
Does it provide a basis for rational discussion?
Multiple trends in life expectancy