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Technology EvaluationDavid A. Berg
Queen’s University – Kingston, ON
November 28, 2017
About me
• Born and raised in Alberta
• Queen’s alumni (as well as University of Calgary & Western)
• Recently retired from DuPont Canada:
31 years in Research & Development; all in Kingston
Worked with multiple DuPont BUs: Polyethylene, Nylon, Polyester, DuPont
Protection Technologies, DuPont Industrial BioSciences, DuPont Crop
Protection Chemicals
Multiple roles: Research Scientist, Project Leader, Technology Manager, Global
Process Owner for Technology Selection and Basic Data Development
• Volunteer Work:
Providence Care – Vice Chair and Board Member (2015 – present)
Eastern Lake Ontario Regional Innovation Initiative – Board Member (2005 –
2011)
Canadian Society for Chemical Engineering – Treasurer and Board Member
(1996 – 1999)
Queen’s University – Industrial Advisor for TEAM (1994 – present)
Presentation Outline
• Development and Scale-Up of Chemical Processes:
Approach to Scale-Up
Business Justification for Piloting
Effective use of Process Modeling and Piloting
• Stage-Gate Models for Managing Innovation:
Framework, Elements, and Benefits
Discussion Exercise: Project Review Questions
• Commonly Used Tools:
Technology Risk Assessments
Technology Readiness Levels
Techno-Economic Assessments
What Scale-Up is Not
https://www.hazenresearch.com/sites/default/files/case-
study/scaleup_issues_from_bench_to_pilot.pdf
Think Scale-Down, not Scale-Up
1. Start first with the end in mind:
Define what business success means:
o Process economics (e.g. capital investment & operating cost)
o Process CTQs (e.g. overall yield, catalyst consumption, energy
consumption, …)
o Product CTQs (e.g. product specification, purity, …)
Develop high level design for the commercial process:
o Batch vs. continuous?
o Reactor design?
o Product specifications?
o Process flow diagram?
Iterate on design to meet success targets
2. Then scale-down the planned commercial process to design
lab and pilot scale processes
Structured Approach to Process Scale-Up
• Concept Feasibility
Assessment
• Reaction Kinetics
• Data for Modeling
• Process Design and
Optimization
• Basic Data for Scale-Up
• Samples for Customer
Testing
• Process Demonstration
• Basic Data for
Commercial Plant
• Samples for Market
Development
• Commercial Production
Laboratory
Reactors
Process Development
Unit
Market Development
Unit
Full-Scale
Commercial Plant
Scale-Up Ratio “X”Scale-Up Ratio “Y”
Scale-Up Ratio “Z”
Reproduced from “Reduce Piloting Time and Cost”, D.A. Berg and M.T. Cleary,
Chemical Engineering Progress, July 2011
Determining Process Scale-Up Ratios
How do you decide on
what is an appropriate
scale-up ratio?
What factors need to be
considered?
Determining Process Scale-Up Ratios
• Very complex issue
• Specific to:
Process technology
Management’s comfort with the level of
scale-up risk
• Factors that influence scale-up
ratios:
Customer sample requirements for product
development
Chemical reactor:
o Phases: gas, liquid, solid, biological,
…
o Batch vs. continuous
o Design: stirred tank, fluidized bed,
tubular, column …
o Effects of mixing
o Effects of heat and mass transfer
Other unit operations: separation, particle
size reduction, …
http://ocw.ump.edu.my/mod/resource/view.php?id=2321
Business Justification for Piloting
• Challenges:
Developing and piloting new technology is costly
Businesses have limited budgets, and are under significant pressure
to reduce the cycle time and cost of development
Scale-up risks are not always well understood
• Consequence:
Some businesses take higher levels of risk than is often warranted:
• Not building an integrated pilot plant
• Not evaluating the effect of recycle
• Not using real life feeds
• Not building the right scale of pilot plant
Business Justification for Piloting
• Challenges:
Developing and piloting new technology is costly
Businesses have limited budgets, and are under significant pressure
to reduce the cycle time and cost of development
Scale-up risks are not always well understood
• Consequence:
Some businesses take higher levels of risk than is often warranted:
• Not building an integrated pilot plant
• Not evaluating the effect of recycle
• Not using real life feeds
• Not building the right scale of pilot plant
“You always build a pilot plant, it’s just that sometimes it’s at the commercial
scale” – Kate Threefoot, DuPont Research Fellow
Business Justification for Piloting
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/bioenergy/biomass2010/pdfs/biomass2010_track3_s1_marton.pdf
Developed by Independent Projects Analysis (IPA)
Business Justification for Piloting
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/bioenergy/biomass2010/pdfs/biomass2010_track3_s1_marton.pdf
Developed by Independent Projects Analysis (IPA)
Business Justification for Piloting
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/bioenergy/biomass2010/pdfs/biomass2010_track3_s1_marton.pdf
Developed by Independent Projects Analysis (IPA)
Contingency Planning for Underdeveloped Projects
• See “RAND Cost Growth” worksheet in CHEE
470 economics model spreadsheet
Developed in the early 1980s
RAND became the basis for the IPA
organization
Provides a basis for comparing actual vs.
estimated costs for new technology
projects employing underdeveloped
technology
Framework for Visualizing Uncertainty
https://skipwalter.net/2012/01/05/the-four-boxes-of-knowing/
https://skipwalter.net/2012/01/05/the-four-boxes-of-knowing/
• Process development
is an experience based
competency:
You learn through doing
Failures are great
learning opportunities
With experience comes
the wisdom to know
what you don’t know
Framework for Visualizing Uncertainty
Effective Use of Process Modeling
• Model Types:
Reaction kinetics, thermodynamics, mass transfer, …
Process flowsheets (e.g. HYSYS)
Process flow models (e.g. CFD)
Structural models (e.g. Finite Element)
Economic models (e.g. Capital Investment & Operating Cost)
• Model Uses:
Process flowsheet optimization
Input to costing calculations
Detailed equipment design
Support to piloting & start-up
Operator training
• Key Issue:
“All models are wrong, but some are useful.” – George Box
• Best Practices:
Develop good quality data for input (e.g. for reaction kinetics)
Challenge assumptions (e.g. reactor mixing)
Understand the limits of your model (e.g. interpolation vs. extrapolation)
Validate model predictions at each scale
Effective Use of Process Modeling
Alignment of Commercialization Activities
DiscoveryBusiness
Analysis
Development
and Testing Launch
New Product Development
Technology DeliveryLab-Scale
Technology
Definition
Bench-Scale
Demonstration
Pilot-Scale
Demonstration
Process Modeling
Start-Up
SupportPerformance
Validation
Evaluate Business
OpportunityDevelop Best
Scope
Define How to
Implement
Implement
ProjectOperate
Product Supply/Asset Creation
• Product Development Samples
• Data for Model / Cost Validation
• Product Testing Samples
• Equipment Design Data
Reproduced from “Reduce Piloting Time and Cost”, D.A. Berg and M.T. Cleary,
Chemical Engineering Progress, July 2011
Example: Innovation Stage Gate Process
http://www2.curtin.edu.au/research/jcipp/local/docs/dupont-curtin-corner-
innovation-making-choices.pdf
DuPont’s Stage Gate Management Process for R&D
Stage Gate Process (continued)
Key Elements
• Stages:
Covers discovery to commercialization
launch
Defines all activities and deliverables that
must be achieved
Cross-functional: technical, business,
marketing, …
Includes integrated analysis of all parallel
activities
• Gates:
Articulates deliverables that must be
achieved to advance to next stage
Reviewed by business leadership (Decision
Board)
Possible outcomes: go, kill, hold, recycle
Benefits
• Accelerates speed-to-market
• Increases likelihood of business success
• Coordinates cross-functional parallel
activities
• Brings discipline to the decision making
process – ensures the poor projects get
killed
• Achieves efficient and effective
allocation of scarce resources
• Common playbook – everyone speaks
the same language
Discussion Exercise
You are a Technology Director with a company that is working
to commercialize a new polymer that is derived from sugar.
You are part of the Decision Board for a Gate Review to
decide whether to approve spending $125 million CAD to build
a commercial manufacturing facility for this polymer.
What are some of the questions you would be expecting the
project team to answer before making a GO decision?
Financial
• Confirm attractive economics?
Capital cost estimate
Cost of manufacturing estimate
Sales forecast: pricing and volume
• Have lower cost options been considered?
Retrofit vs. new build
Contract manufacturing
Discussion Exercise (continued)
Financial
• Confirm attractive economics?
Capital cost estimate
Cost of manufacturing estimate
Sales forecast: pricing and volume
• Have lower cost options been considered?
Retrofit vs. new build
Contract manufacturing
Discussion Exercise (continued)
Market
• What is our product value proposition?
• How have the product CTQs been
established? Can we reliably meet them?
• What are our customers’ plans for
commercialization?
• What are our competitors doing?
Financial
• Confirm attractive economics?
Capital cost estimate
Cost of manufacturing estimate
Sales forecast: pricing and volume
• Have lower cost options been considered?
Retrofit vs. new build
Contract manufacturing
Discussion Exercise (continued)
Market
• What is our product value proposition?
• How have the product CTQs been
established? Can we reliably meet them?
• What are our customers’ plans for
commercialization?
• What are our competitors doing?
Safety, Health, Environment
• What are the Process Hazards and risk
mitigation plans?
• Consideration for
• Results from Product Stewardship, Life
Cycle, and Regulatory assessments?
Financial
• Confirm attractive economics?
Capital cost estimate
Cost of manufacturing estimate
Sales forecast: pricing and volume
• Have lower cost options been considered?
Retrofit vs. new build
Contract manufacturing
Discussion Exercise (continued)
Process Technology
• Do we have a clear competitive
advantage?
• What are the scale-up risks and our plans
to mitigate them?
• What is our IP strategy? Do we have
Freedom to Operate?
Market
• What is our product value proposition?
• How have the product CTQs been
established? Can we reliably meet them?
• What are our customers’ plans for
commercialization?
• What are our competitors doing?
Safety, Health, Environment
• What are the Process Hazards and risk
mitigation plans?
• Consideration for
• Results from Product Stewardship, Life
Cycle, and Regulatory assessments?
Financial
• Product Pricing and Strategy Review
• Capital Project Reviews and Benchmarking
• Supply Chain Review
• Operations Review
Discussion Exercise (continued)
Process Technology
• Technology Readiness and Risk
Assessment
• Intellectual Property Review
• Competitive Technology Assessment
• Basic Data Review
Market
• Market Assessment
• Review of Customer Evaluations &
Launch Plans
• Marketing Plan Review
Safety, Health, Environment
• Process Hazards Assessment
• Product Stewardship Review
• Life Cycle Assessment
• Regulatory Assessment?
Most of these questions should have been addressed during different
Project Reviews (Stage Gate Deliverables)
Example: Stage 1 Gate Deliverables
DuPont’s Stage Gate Management Process for R&D
http://www2.curtin.edu.au/research/jcipp/local/docs/dupont-curtin-corner-
innovation-making-choices.pdf
Financial
• Product Pricing and Strategy Review
• Capital Project Reviews and Benchmarking
• Supply Chain Review
• Operations Review
Discussion Exercise (continued)
Process Technology
• Technology Readiness and Risk
Assessment
• Intellectual Property Review
• Competitive Technology Assessment
• Basic Data Review
Market
• Market Assessment
• Review of Customer Evaluations &
Launch Plans
• Marketing Plan Review
Safety, Health, Environment
• Process Hazards Assessment
• Product Stewardship Review
• Life Cycle Assessment
• Regulatory Assessment?
Most of these questions should have been addressed during different
Project Reviews (Stage Gate Deliverables)
Technology Risk Assessment
• Commonly used tool to evaluate risks associated with
the scale-up and commercialization of new technology
• Conducted by multi-disciplinary group of subject-matter
experts + senior leadership
• Uses a similar template as PHAs:
Identify risk
Assess “Probability of Occurrence” (e.g. H, M, L)
Assess “Impact of Risk” (e.g. H, M, L)
Develop mitigation plans for H × H items
• Key is to ensure mitigation plans are implemented:
Assign responsibilities
Review status regularly
Technology Readiness Levels
• Systematic, metric-based process to assesses the
maturity of technologies
• Pioneered by NASA (and adopted by many)
• Provides a common language for evaluations
U.S. DOE Technology Readiness Levels (TRL)
https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/em/Volume_I/O_SRP.pdf
Technology Readiness Levels
Technology Readiness Levels in the Oil & Gas Industry (API 17N)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_level
Technology
Readiness LevelDescription
TRL 0 Unproven idea/proposal Paper concept. No analysis or testing has been performed
TRL 1
Concept demonstrated. Basic functionality demonstrated by analysis, reference to features shared
with existing technology or through testing on individual subcomponents/subsystems. Shall show that
the technology is likely to meet specified objectives with additional testing.
TRL 2
Concept validated. Concept design or novel features of design validated through model or small scale
testing in laboratory environment. Shall show that the technology can meet specified acceptance
criteria with additional testing
TRL 3New technology tested. Prototype built and functionality demonstrated through testing over a limited
range of operating conditions. These tests can be done on a scaled version if scalable
TRL 4Technology qualified for first use. Full-scale prototype built and technology qualified through testing in
intended environment, simulated or actual. The new hardware is now ready for first use
TRL 5Technology integration tested. Full-scale prototype built and integrated into intended operating
system with full interface and functionality tests
TRL 6
Technology installed. Full-scale prototype built and integrated into intended operating system with full
interface and functionality test program in intended environment. The technology has shown
acceptable performance and reliability over a period of time
TRL 7Proven technology integrated into intended operating system. The technology has successfully
operated with acceptable performance and reliability within the predefined criteria
Techno-Economic Assessments
• Framework for evaluating alternative process
technologies:
Combines technical process modeling with cost modeling
Many possible uses:
• Assessing options in technology development
• Evaluating alternative technologies for possible acquisition or licensing
• Comparing competitive position of own technologies
• Significant undertaking
• Nexant provides unbiased third party assessments of new
and emerging technologies (PERP Reports):
Industry standard
Could be useful framework to use for TEAM Projects involving
assessments of new technologies
Reports are proprietary, but Abstract and Table of Contents are available
on Nexant’s web site
Contents of PERP Reports
• Strategic Business Overview
• Process Technology: Chemistry
Process Flow Diagrams + Process Descriptions + Material/Energy
Balances
Includes both Commercial + Developing Technologies
Process Economics Facility Cost
Cost of Manufacture
Process Comparison
Global Market: Commercial Projects
Applications
Example: Cost of Production Table
http://thinking.nexant.com/sites/default/files/report/field_attachment_prospectus/199309/2012_PERP_Prospe
ctus.pdf
Example: Process Comparison
http://thinking.nexant.com/sites/default/files/report/field_attachment_prospectus/199309/2012_PERP_Prospe
ctus.pdf
Wrap Up
Questions?
