Techno-Economic Analysis ofBus Electrification in India

Dr. Nikit Abhyankar

Aditya Khandekar

International Energy Studies Group

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

August 30, 2018

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Questions for discussion today

• What is happening in other major economies on bus electrification ?

• What is the cost of an electric bus ? What does the FAME-I procurement inform us ?

• What is the impact of bus electrification on the grid ?

• What are the key issues in fast charging?

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In China, electric bus manufacturing has already scaled with bus market almost transformed

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• Subsidies (up to ~50%), sales targets, air quality regulations accelerated the EV bus adoption

• Recently, subsidies are down to ~5-10% of the upfront bus cost; vehicles with range <150km don’t get any subsidy

• Electric bus costs have also fallen and are almost at par with diesel buses (~$100,000 to $150,000)

DRAFT

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Non-Electric Bus Stock Electric Bus Stock

Electric Bus Sales

Given the steep reduction in battery prices, 12m A/C Electric Bus Costs are Marginally Higher than a Diesel Bus

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Others : Electric motor,gearbox, inverter and AC

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Battery Pack Cost ($/kWh)

Data Sources: BNEF (2017), Kammen et al (2017), Tesla( 2017), Bolt (2017)

Policies can play a major role in achieving scale and ensuring sustained cost reduction

FAME-I bus procurement confirms the cost reduction hypothesis

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Note that costs across cities may not be directly compared with each other since each have different terms on contract periods, distance travelled and electricity and maintenance costs

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48 57

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Gross Contract Winning Bids (Rs / km)

0.85 0.850.77

0.99 0.990.88

Outright Purchase Winning Bids (Rs Cr.)

Data Source: UITP (2018)

Even after harmonizing the costs across cities, EV bus’s TCO is lower than diesel operating cost even without subsidy

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Bangalore(12m AC)

Hyderabad(12m AC)

Kolkata (12mAC)

LBNL Estimate(12m AC)

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Diesel TCO = Rs 59/km

All numbers include capital, maintenance, fuel cost, battery replacement in year 8, driver cost and charging infrastructure cost.

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Electric Bus (12m AC) Diesel Bus (12m AC)

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Driver Cost Charging infrastructure cost

Energy Cost Maintanence cost

Bus capital service cost

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In energy terms, the additional load due to electric bus fleets is small

• Let’s do a simple math for Delhi:o Delhi’s total bus fleet = ~5,600

o Assume the entire fleet is converted to electric

o Electric bus efficiency = 1.3 kWh/km

o Distance traveled = 200 km/day

o Total electricity consumption by the Delhi bus fleet = ~450 GWh/yr

o Total electricity sales in Delhi = ~26,000 GWh/yr

• With fast charging infrastructure, the dynamics may change locally and also in cities with smaller electricity loads

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Delhi Load (Summer)

Fast charging peak load = ~220 MW

Peak load = ~220 MW

Fast charging infrastructure is crucial for aggressive electric bus adoption

• Slow charging may require over-procurement of electric buses to maintain the service

• Several fast charging standards / protocols existo CHAdeMO (Japan) – up to 70kW (CAN)o CCS (Europe and US) – up to 90 kW (PLC)o Tesla Supercharger (US) – 120 kWo GB/T (China) - ~200-400 kW standard, ~900 kW (proposed along with CHAdeMO) (CAN)

• In China, fast chargers (300-400 kW) have been deployed in several citieso @ 300 kW, battery can be charged within ~1 houro No significant impact on battery life or performance despite high ambient temperatures (40-42 deg C)

• LTO batteries may perform better with fast charging than NMC or LFP

• Legal and regulatory barriers in setting up third party chargers need to be addressed

For more information , please contact:

Nikit Abhyankar (NAbhyankar@lbl.gov)Aditya Khandekar (AKhandekar@lbl.gov)

Amol Phadke (AAPhadke@lbl.gov)

Most bus manufacturers want to move from using LFP to NMC due to higher specific energy and stability

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Specific Energy

Specific Power

Peformance

Safety

Life span

Affordability

Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC)

Specific Energy

Specific Power

Peformance

Safety

Life span

Affordability

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP)

Specific Energy

Specific Power

Peformance

Safety

Life span

Affordability

Lithium Titanate (LTO)

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Example Simulation

Residential

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Delayed

Stranded

Charging Events

Driver Inconvenience

Using following assumptions, we harmonize all bids in order to facilitate comparison across cities

Parameter Units Value Source

Maintenance cost (12m Diesel) Rs / km 8 ASRTU 2017

Maintenance cost (12m Electric) Rs / km 4 Expert Input

Electricity Cost Rs / kWh 6 Expert Input

Fuel Economy (12m Electric AC) kWh / km 1.3 Expert Input

Fuel Economy (9m Electric AC) kWh / km 1.1 Expert Input

Fuel Economy (9m Electric Non-AC) kWh / km 0.8 Expert Input

Life of bus Years 12 DOT 2014

Daily distance travelled Km 200 CSTEP 2017

Interest Rate % 10

Electric bus total cost of operation is almost on par with a CNG bus despite significant difference in capital costs

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Diesel Bus (12m AC) CNG Bus (12m AC)] Electric Bus (12m AC)

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Bus capital service cost Maintanence cost Fuel cost Charging infrastructure cost

Actual reported battery pack costs were at 150 – 200 $/kWh in 2017; which are projected to go down to 100 $/kWh over the next 5– 7 years

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2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

USD

pe

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Battery Pack Cost ($ / kWh)

BNEF Actual Reported Costs (pack only) BNEF Projections (pack only)

Tesla (pack only) Bolt (pack only)

Kammen et al (pack-only)

Key Recommendations

• Electric bus manufacturing has reached scale in China; thereby lowering costs

• Gross Contract Cost bids are a good way to go given risks and lack of experience for fleet management of battery electric bus

• Securing a good deal for electricity price is critical to keep per km costs low

• Recommend the design of a reverse auction for the subsidy amount as opposed to pre-announcing the amount per bus