8
 Bnkpsycu Rbacfbc Icphuykcfy Ycbjfabh` Ucpnuy FTS+BR+11+8 8111 Srafd Rynbjhryab Afycu|h`r yn _uciaby Hpp`abhyanf Ecjh|anu nf Bnfycfici Ucrnsubcr Mcffalcu K& Rbjnpl Luhfbafc Ecukhf Heryuhby Bsuucfy iaryuaesyci phuh``c` p`hylnukr bhf pun|aic yjc ucrnsubcr ucxsauci yn czcbsyc h rbacfyalab hpp`abhyanf cllabacfy`q& Jntc|cu, tjcf yjcrc p`hylnukr huc rjhuci eq ks`yap`c srcur, pculnukhfbc  puciabyanf ecbnkcr afbuchrafd`q iallabs`y isc yn yjc iqfhkab ecjh|anu nl yjc rqryck& Yjar phpcu hiiucrrcr yjc src nl rynbjhryab |h`scr, ucpucrcfyci eq afycu|h`r, yn phuhkcycua}c pculnukhfbc knic`r& Tc icrbuaec h kcyjni lnu srafd sppcu hfi `ntcu ensfi aflnukhyanf yn phuhkcycua}c hpp`abhyanf  puciabyanf knic`r af nuicu yn khgc ecyycu puciabyanfr hensy yjc hpp`abhyanfr ecjh|anu af h bnfycfyansr cf|aunfkcfy& Tc icknfryuhyc yjar ycbjfaxsc lnu h rcy nl yjucc hpp`abhyanfr sficu iallcucfy tnug`nhir nf h punisbyanf fcytnug nl tnugryhyanfr&

Tech Report NWU-CS-99-01: Using Stochastic Intervals to Predict Application Behavior on Contended Resources

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Page 1: Tech Report NWU-CS-99-01: Using Stochastic Intervals to Predict Application Behavior on Contended Resources

8/6/2019 Tech Report NWU-CS-99-01: Using Stochastic Intervals to Predict Application Behavior on Contended Resources

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/tech-report-nwu-cs-99-01-using-stochastic-intervals-to-predict-application 1/8

 

Bnkpsycu Rbacfbc Icphuykcfy

Ycbjfabh` Ucpnuy

FTS+BR+11+8

8111

Srafd Rynbjhryab Afycu|h`r yn _uciaby Hpp`abhyanf Ecjh|anunf Bnfycfici Ucrnsubcr

Mcffalcu K& Rbjnpl Luhfbafc Ecukhf

Heryuhby

Bsuucfy iaryuaesyci phuh``c` p`hylnukr bhf pun|aic yjc ucrnsubcr ucxsauci yn czcbsyc h rbacfyalab

hpp`abhyanf cllabacfy`q& Jntc|cu, tjcf yjcrc p`hylnukr huc rjhuci eq ks`yap`c srcur, pculnukhfbc puciabyanf ecbnkcr afbuchrafd`q iallabs`y isc yn yjc iqfhkab ecjh|anu nl yjc rqryck& Yjar phpcu 

hiiucrrcr yjc src nl rynbjhryab |h`scr, ucpucrcfyci eq afycu|h`r, yn phuhkcycua}c pculnukhfbc knic`r&

Tc icrbuaec h kcyjni lnu srafd sppcu hfi `ntcu ensfi aflnukhyanf yn phuhkcycua}c hpp`abhyanf

 puciabyanf knic`r af nuicu yn khgc ecyycu puciabyanfr hensy yjc hpp`abhyanf‑r ecjh|anu af hbnfycfyansr cf|aunfkcfy& Tc icknfryuhyc yjar ycbjfaxsc lnu h rcy nl yjucc hpp`abhyanfr sficu 

iallcucfy tnug`nhir nf h punisbyanf fcytnug nl tnugryhyanfr&

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8/6/2019 Tech Report NWU-CS-99-01: Using Stochastic Intervals to Predict Application Behavior on Contended Resources

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Page 3: Tech Report NWU-CS-99-01: Using Stochastic Intervals to Predict Application Behavior on Contended Resources

8/6/2019 Tech Report NWU-CS-99-01: Using Stochastic Intervals to Predict Application Behavior on Contended Resources

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_unbcciafdr nl AR_HF ‑11 

Srafd Rynbjhryab Afycu|h`r yn _uciaby Hpp`abhyanf Ecjh|anu nf Bnfycfici

Ucrnsubcr

Mcffalcu K& Rbjnpl ¢  Luhfbafc EcukhfÛ 

Bnkpsycu Rbacfbc Icphuykcfy Icpy& nl Bnkpsycu Rbacfbc hfi Cfdafccuafd

Fnuyjtcrycuf Sfa|curayq Sfa|curayq nl Bh`alnufah Rhf Iacdn  mkrObr&fts&cis ecukhfObr&sbri&cis

Heryuhby

Bsuucfy iaryuaesyci phuh``c` p`hylnukr bhf pun|aic yjc

ucrnsubcr ucxsauci yn czcbsyc h rbacfyab hpp`abhyanf cl+

bacfy`q& Jntc|cu, tjcf yjcrc p`hylnukr huc rjhuci eq ks`ya+

 p`c srcur, pculnukhfbc puciabyanf ecbnkcr afbuchrafd`q ial+

 bs`y isc yn yjc iqfhkab ecjh|anu nl yjc rqryck&

Yjar phpcu hiiucrrcr yjc src nl rynbjhryab |h`scr, ucp+

ucrcfyci eq afycu|h`r, yn phuhkcycua}c pculnukhfbc knic`r&

Tc icrbuaec h kcyjni lnu srafd sppcu hfi `ntcu ensfi af+

 lnukhyanf yn phuhkcycua}c hpp`abhyanf puciabyanf knic`r af

nuicu yn khgc ecyycu puciabyanfr hensy yjc hpp`abhyanf‑r ec+

jh|anu af h bnfycfyansr cf|aunfkcfy& Tc icknfryuhyc yjar

ycbjfaxsc lnu h rcy nl 2 hpp`abhyanfr sficu iallcucfy tnug+

`nhir nf h punisbyanf fcytnug nl tnugryhyanfr&

8 Knya|hyanf hfi Nsy afc

Af nuicu yn hbjac|c pculnukhfbc af ks`ya+srcu iaryuaesyci

cf|aunfkcfyr ay ar buayabh` yn pun|aic pculnukhfbc knic`r

tjabj hbbsuhyc`q ucpucrcfy yjc czcbsyanf ecjh|anu nl pun+

duhkr af bnfycfici rqryckr& Af W83[ tc czp nuci yjc hb+bsuhbq nl ryusbysuh` pculnukhfbc knic`r tjabj h``ntci lnu

rynbjhryab afpsy phuhkcycur& Rynbjhryab |h`scr h``nt pculnu+

khfbc knic`r yn ec phuhkcycua}ci eq h uhfdc nl pnrrae`c

|h`scr& Rsbj |h`scr knuc hbbsuhyc`q ucpucrcfy phuhkcycur

nl rqryck hfi hpp abhyanf ecjh|anu& Lnu czhkp c ehfi+

taiyj bn`i ec ucpnuyci hr <+: Keayr.rcbnfi uhyjcu yjhf h

rafd`c *pnafy! |h`sc *lnu czhkp`c hfi h|cuhdc!&

Af puc|ansr tnug tc af|cryadhyci yjc hbbsuhbq nl ryusb+

ysuh` knic`r tjcf phuhkcycua}ci eq rynbjhryab |h`scr yjhy

bns`i ec hicxshyc`q ucpucrcfyci eq fnukh` iaryuaesyanfr& Af

yjar phpcu tc `nnrcf yjc ucxsauckcfy hfi bnfraicu ryusb+

ysuh` pculnukhfbc knic`r tjabj huc phuhkcycua}ci eq rak+

p`c afycu|h`r& Tc icknfryuhyc lnu yjucc hpp abhyanfr yjhy

¢ _huyah` q rsppnuyci eq FHRH DRU_ Duhfy "FDY+8+35822 Ihuph

duhfy "F<<??8+14+B+:328&Û Rsppnuyci af phuy eq FRL duhfy "HRB+14?8222 Ihuph duhfy

"F<<??8+14+B+:328&

afycu|h` puciabyanfr ucrs`yafd lunk ryusbysuh` knic`r phuhk+

cycua}ci eq afycu|h` |h`scr pun|aic h dnni puciabyanf nl ne+

rcu|he`c ecjh|anu af ks`ya+srcu iaryuaesyci cf|aunfkcfyr&

Af yjar phpcu tc icfc hf czycfranf yn h knic`afd ycbj+

faxsc yn h``nt lnu knic` phuhkcycur yjhy huc rynbjhryab |h`+

scr ucpucrcfyci eq hf sppcu ensfi hfi h `ntcu ensfi& Rcb+

yanf 5 da|cr h euacl n|cu|act nl yjc ryusbysuh` knic`afd

hppunhbj& Rcbyanf 2 icrbuaecr jnt afycu|h r huc icfci

hfi icyha`r afycu|h` huayjkcyab& Yjar ucrs`yr af hpp`abhyanf

pculnukhfbc puciabyanfr yjhy huc rynbjhryab puciabyanfr hfi

knuc hbbsuhyc`q icrbuaec yjc hpp`abhyanf ecjh|anu hr rjntf

czpcuakcfyh``q af Rcbyanf 9& Rcbyanf 9&3 bnkphucr yjar hp+

punhbj yn puc|ansr tnug yjhy srci fnukh` iaryuaesyanfr yn

ucpucrcfy rynbjhryab |h`scr hfi nyjcu uc`hyci tnug& Tc bnf+

b`sic hfi da|c lsysuc tnug af Rcbyanf <&

5 N|cu|act nl Ryusbysuh` Knic`afd

Af puc|ansr tnug W82 89[ tc ic|c`npci h ycbjfaxsc

bh``ci ryusbysuh` knic`afd hr hf hppunhbj yn hbbsuhyc pcu+

lnukhfbc knic`afd& Ryusbysuh` knic`afd srcr yjc lsfb+

yanfh` ryusbysuc nl yjc hpp`abhyanf yn icfc h rcy nl cxsh+

yanfr yjhy ucstcby yjc yakc+icpcficfy iqfhkab kaz nl hp+p`abhyanf yhrgr nbbsuuafd isuafd czcbsyanf af h iaryuaesyci

phuh``c` cf|aunfkcfy& H ryusbysuh` knic` bnfraryr nl h ynp+

`c|c` knic` bnkpnfcfy knic`r hfi afpsy phuhkcycur& H

ynp+`c|c` knic` ar h pculnukhfbc cxshyanf bnfraryafd nl 

bnkpnfcfy knic`r hfi bnkpnrayanf npcuhynur& Chbj bnk+

pnfcfy knic` ar h`rn icfci yn ec h pculnukhfbc cxshyanf

phuhkcycua}ci eq p`hylnuk hfi hpp`abhyanf bjhuhbycuaryabr

rsbj hr ecfbjkhugr iqfhkab rqryck kchrsuckcfyr pune+

`ck ra}c nu yjc fskecu nl aycuhyanfr yn ec czcbsyci& Yjc

nsypsy nl h ryusbysuh` knic` ar h puciabyci czcbsyanf yakc&

Ryusbysuh` knic`r bhf h`rn ec ic|c`npci lnu h`ycufhya|c pcu+

lnukhfbc kcyuabr rsbj hr rpccisp nu ucrpnfrc yakc&

H dnni pculnukhfbc knic` `agc h dnni rbacfyab yjc+nuq ar he`c yn czp`haf h|ha`he`c nercu|hyanfr hfi puciaby ls+

ysuc c|cfyr tja`c heryuhbyafd hthq sfakpnuyhfy icyha`r W3[&

Ryusbysuh` knic`r huc ucpucrcfyci eq cxshyanfr yjhy h``nt

sr yn heryuhby hthq icyha`r afyn yjc ynp `c|c` knic`r hfi yjc

8

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8/6/2019 Tech Report NWU-CS-99-01: Using Stochastic Intervals to Predict Application Behavior on Contended Resources

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phuhkcycur esy rya`` hbbsuhyc`q knic` yjc pculnukhfbc eq

rjntafd yjc afycu+uc`hyanf nl hpp`abhyanf hfi rqryck lhbynur

yjunsdj yjc bnkpnfcfy knic`r hfi yjcau phuhkcycua}hyanfr&

Al yjc puciabyanfr huc lnu src af h yakc`q khffcu ‒ lnu czhk+

p`c hr phuy nl h usfyakc rbjcis`afd hppunhbj ‒ yjcq ksry

ec he`c yn ec c|h`shyci xsabg`q hfi tayj kafakh` bnkpsyh+

yanfh` n|cujchi hr tc`` h lhbynu yjhy tc hiiucrr yjunsdjnsy&

Af nuicu yn src rynbjhryab |h`scr fny nf`q in tc fcci yn

icrbuaec jnt yn icfc yjck esy tc ksry icfc yjc fccici

huayjkcyab& Af yjc ln``ntafd tc hrrskc yjhy hbbsuhyc ryusb+

ysuh` knic`r huc h|ha`he`c yn yjc srcu& Rcbyanf 9&3 icrbuaecrrnkc pnrrae`c raic cllcbyr al yjar ar fny yjc bhrc&

2 Icfafd Rynbjhryab \h`scr srafd Afycu|h r

Nfbc hf hbbsuhyc ryusbysuh` knic` jhr eccf icfci rc|+

cuh` puhbyabh` arrscr ksry ec hiiucrrci af nuicu yn phuhkc+

ycua}c ay tayj rynbjhryab |h`scr& Af yjar rcbyanf tc iarbsrr

jnt iqfhkab aflnukhyanf bhf ec srci yn icfc h rynbjhr+

yab |h`sc srafd hf sppcu ensfi hfi h `ntcu ensfi hfi yjc

fccici huayjkcyab yn bnkeafc yjc |h`scr&

2&8 Icfafd hf Afycu|h`

Da|cf ihyh af yjc lnuk nl h yakc+rcuacr yjc rakp`cry thq

yn ucpucrcfy yjc |huahea`ayq nl h rynbjhryab |h`sc ar hr hf af+ycu|h`& H raka hu hppunhbj thr srci lnu xscsafd fcytnug 

knic`r af W:[& Tc icfc yjc afycu|h` nl h rynbjhryab |h`sc

  yn ec yjc ysp`c

    РР   × Ü     Р ¶      Р   Р   Р  

*8!

Yjc |h`scr Р hfi Р huc bh``ci yjc cfipnafyr nl yjc afycu|h`&

Yjc |h`scР

ar yjc kafaksk |h`sc n|cu h``Р ¶   

hfi ar

bh``ci yjc `ntcu ensfi hfi yjc |h`sc Р ar yjc khzaksk

|h`sc bh``ci yjc sppcu ensfi& Yjc ra}c nl hf afycu|h`   

  РР   ar icfci hr         Р   Р &

Yjc khaf hi|hfyhdc nl srafd afycu|h`r ar yjc rakp`abayq

hfi afysaya|cfcrr nl yjc hppunhbj& Icycukafafd yjc khz+aksk hfi kafaksk |h`sc nl yjc afycu|h` lnu h rynbjhryab

|h`sc ar h`knry h`thqr pnrrae`c hfi bnuuc`hycr yn yjc afys+

ayanf ecjafi icfafd h `ntcu hfi sppcu ensfi lnu h |h`sc&

Yjc puakhuq iarhi|hfyhdc nl srafd afycu|h`r ar yjhy h

da|cf afycu|h` khq fcci yn ec h |cuq `hudc yn hbbnsfy lnu

nsy`qafd |h`scr& Ladsuc 8 rjntr lnsu pnrrae`c rynbjhryab

|h`scr h`` tayj |cuq iallcucfy iaryuaesyanfr h`` ucpucrcfyci

eq yjc rhkc afycu|h`& Lnu czhkp`c h rynbjhryab |h`sc tayj

ytn nu knuc ‐knicr‛ rsbj hr rjntf af `afcr ytn hfi yjucc

nl Ladsuc 8 tns`i ec ucpucrcfyci eq yjc rhkc afycu|h` hr h

|h`sc tayj h rafd`c knic&

Hfnyjcu akpnuyhfy bnfbcuf ar yjc rjhupfcrr nl yjc ic+

fci afycu|h r W85[& H rcy nl ensfir  ß Ñ   

huc rjhupcu yjhfhfnyjcu rcy   ß 

° 

Ñ 

° 

  al  ß 

° 

  ß  hfi Ñ 

° 

  Ñ  tjcuc enyj   ß Ñ    hfi

  ß 

° 

Ñ 

° 

 

bnfyhaf h`` |h`scr nl rnkc rynbjhryab |h`sc 

& Rjhup

nu yadjy ensfir nf yjc ucrs`yafd afycu|h`r nl h bnkpsyhyanf

huc crpcbah` q akpnuyhfy lnu puciabyanfr srci lnu rbjcis`afd

tjcuc yadjycu ensfir nf h puciabyci czcbsyanf yakc bhf chi

yn h knuc clbacfy czcbsyanf yakc& Yjar ar h iallcucfy arrsc

yjhf yjc `hudc afycu|h` ucrs`yafd lunk nsy`acur& Af yjhy bhrc

hfi lnu h`` yjc afycu|h`r icpabyci af Ladsuc 8 yjc ensfir

hunsfi yjc ihyh huc yadjy hunsfi yjc ihyh tjcuc hf sfrjhup

afycu|h` ar nfc yjhy ar ‐`nnrc‛ hunsfi yjc ihyh&

Ladsuc 8& Lnsu rhkp`c rynbjhryab |h`scr, chbj

tayj yjc rhkc afycu|h` ucpucrcfyhyanf&

2&5 Huayjkcyab n|cu Afycu|h`rBnkeafafd rynbjhryab |h`scr ucpucrcfyci hr afycu|h`r af+

|n`|cr necqafd tc`` icfci us`cr lnu bnkpsyafd afycu|h`

huayjkcyab W85[& Lnuks`hr huc da|cf af Yhe`cr 8 5 hfi 2&

Yjc ucrs`y nl huayjkcyab nf afycu|h`r af ryusbysuh` knic`r ar

hf afycu|h` tjabj pun|aicr hf sppcu ensfi hfi ntcu ensfi

nf yjc puciabyanf&

Yjc ryhfihui afycu|h` huayjkcyab lnuks`hr huc h`rn ic+fci hrrskafd hfq ytn |h`scr lunk yjc rhkc rynbjhryab

|h`sc khq ec bnuuc`hyci& Yjhy ar h ksysh` nu ucbapunbh`

uc`hyanf czaryr ecytccf yjck rn chbj rjns`i ec yuchyci hr h

rcphuhyc |huahe`c af yjc uhfdc nl pnrrae`c |h`scr& Yjar khq

`chi yn yjc n|cucryakhyanf nl hpphucfy`q rakp`c czpucrranfr&

Lnu czhkp`c al H;Wh®

®h [ yjcf H+H ; Wh®

+ ®h ®h + h®

[ afrychi

nl W??[& Knuc bnfbucyc`q al H ; W34[ H+H ; W+55[& Yjar

ar h`rn bh``ci yjc icpcficfbc nu raks`yhfcayq pune`ck W85[&

Af rnkc bhrcr yjar pune`ck bhf ec kayadhyci eq uctuay+

afd yjc czpucrranf yn h|nai ks`yap`c nbbsuucfbcr nl huds+

kcfyr W:[& Lnu czhkp c yjc czpucrranf  ¹    ³  

     

     

lnu afycu|h` |h`scr   hfi   khq ec uctuayycf hr »   

¶ 

»    

al  °  ¶    & Al yjc czpucrranf ar c|h`shyci af yjc `hyycu lnuk ay

ucrs`yr af yjc czhby uhfdc nl   ¹  Ð Û  ³ 

lnuР ¶   

hfiÛ  ¶   

&

C|h`shyafd yjar czpucrranf tayj yjc afycu|h`r Z ; W9 3[ Q

; W85[ ucrs`yr af W5.4 9.3[ srafd yjc ury lnuks`h hfi W8.2

5.2[ srafd yjc rcbnfi&

Hiiayanf z ' q ; Wz®

' q®

®z ' ®q[

Rseyuhbyanf z + q ; Wz®

+ ®q ®z + q®

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Yhe`c 8& Hiiayanf hfi Rseyuhbyanf n|cu afycu+|h` |h`scr, z ; Wz

®, ®z[, q;Wq

®, ®q[&

Icrpayc yjcrc pnrrae`c iarhi|hfyhdcr isc yn yjc hrrskp+yanfr fccici yn src ryhfihui afycu|h` huayjkcyab yjar hp+

punhbj ar n|cutjc`kafd`q hppch`afd isc yn yjc `nt n|cu+

jchi af hbxsauafd yjc fccici aflnukhyanf hfi ay‑r afysaya|c

hppch`&

5

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q   ? q ¾  ? q   ?

z   ? Wz®

®z®q[ W®zq®

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z ¾  ? Wz®

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[ Wz®

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Yhe`c 5& Ks`yap`abhyanf nl afycu|h` |h`scr z ;

Wz®

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q   ? q   ?

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Yhe`c 2& Ia|aranf nl afycu|h` |h`scr z ; Wz®

, ®z[

hfi q ; Wq®

, ®q[& Fnyc yjhy afycu|h` ia|aranf nl Р

Û 

ar nf`q icfci al ? ar fny afÛ 

&

9 Czpcuakcfyh` \cuabhyanf

Yjc ln``ntafd czpcuakcfyr icknfryuhyc yjhy afycu|h` puc+

iabyanfr bhf hbbsuhyc`q bhpysuc punduhk ecjh|anu af ks`ya+

srcu iaryuaesyci cf|aunfkcfyr tayj uchrnfhe`c rjhupfcrr&

Af yjc czpcuakcfyr yjc rynbjhryab B_S aflnukhyanf srci

af yjc knic`r thr rspp`aci eq yjc Fcytnug Tchyjcu Rcu+|abc W84 8: 81[& Af bhycdnua}afd yjc ks`yap`c ehbgdunsfi

tnug`nhir rccf lnu chbj czpcuakcfy rcy tc icfc h kh+

bjafc tayj h `nt |huahyanf af B_S h|ha`hea`ayq hr jh|afd h

|huahyanf nl ?&53 nu `crr nf h rbh`c lunk ? yn 8 h kciask

|huahyanf tjcf yjc B_S h|ha`hea`ayq |huaci knuc yjhf ?&53

esy `crr yjhf ?&3 hfi h jadj |huahyanf tjcf yjc B_S |h`scr

|huaci n|cu jh`l yjc uhfdc&

Tc czhkafci yjucc hpp`abhyanfr nf h iaryuaesyci fcytnug 

nl Rphub tnugryhyanfr `nbhyci af yjc SBRI _huh``c` Bnk+

psyhyanf @he& Yjc khbjafcr huc bnffcbyci tayj h kaz nl 

8? Keay *r`nt! hfi 8?? Keay *lhry! cyjcufcy n|cu hf Afyc`

rtaybj hfi h`` usf Rn`huar& Enyj yjc B_S hfi yjc fcytnug 

tcuc rjhuci tayj nyjcu srcur& Hiiayanfh` czpcuakcfyr hucda|cf af W89[&

9&8 _culnukhfbc Kcyuabr

Yn c|h`shyc yjc rynbjhryab puciabyanfr tc src ytn iallcu+

cfy pculnukhfbc kcyuabr& Yjc ury tc bh`` bhpysuc& Yjar

kchrsucr yjc pcubcfyhdc nl hbysh` |h`scr lh``afd tayjaf yjc

puciabyci uhfdc lnu h rcy nl hpp`abhyanf usfr& Yjar ryhyaryab ar

akpnuyhfy ecbhsrc yjc puakhuq dnh` ar yn icfc puciabyanfr

yjhy huc hbbsuhyc af cryakhyafd yjc czcbsyanf ecjh|anu nl yjc

hpp`abhyanf sficu bnfycfyanf& Jntc|cu yjar ryhyaryab bhf ec

kar`chiafd rafbc nfc uchrnf h puciabyanf khq bhpysuc yjc

khmnuayq nl yjc |h`scr ar isc yn yjc lhby yjhy yjc ensfir tcuc`hudc nu yjc afycu|h` thr fny rjhup&

Nsu rcbnfi kcyuab ar bh``ci rjhupfcrr& Ay ar akpnuyhfy yn

fny nf`q puciaby h uhfdc nl ecjh|anur yjhy ucstcbyr yjc hbysh`

czcbsyanf ecjh|anu uhfdc esy yjar uhfdc rjns`i ec hr yadjy

hr pnrrae`c af nuicu yn jh|c knuc hbbsuhyc aflnukhyanf& Tc

icfc yjc rjhupfcrr kcyuab eq ia|aiafd yjc puciabyci uhfdc

afyn |c cxsh` phuyr hr rjntf af Ladsuc 5& Al yjc khmnu+

ayq nl yjc |h`scr lnu h rcy nl usfr lh`` af yjc bcfycu pnuyanf

yjc |h`scr bns`i jh|c eccf ksbj yadjycu& Al yjcq lh`` afyn

yjc kai uhfdcr yjc puciabyanf bns`i jh|c eccf rnkctjhy

rjhupcu hfi al yjcq lh`` afyn yjc nsycu uhfdcr yjcq bns`i fny

jh|c eccf rjhupcu tayjnsy rhbuabafd yjc bhpysuc punpnu+

yanf& Af hiiayanf tc bhf src yjar kcyuab yn c|h`shyc al yjcuc

thr h eahr af yjc puciabyanf yjhy ar al yjc khmnuayq nl yjc

puciabyanfr tcuc ynn jadj nu ynn `nt& Eahr bhf ec bhsrcieq nsy`acur yjhy inf‑y ucnbbsu nu eq h eahr af yjc nuadafh`

knic`& Yjcrc |h`scr lnu yjc cfyauc rcy nl czpcuakcfyr huc

da|cf af Yhe`c 9&

Bcfycu@n

Kai+JaKai+@n

Ja

Ladsuc 5& Rjhupfcrr afycu|h`r&

Ladsuc Sficu @n Kai Bcfycu Kai Ja N|cu

@n @n

RNU8 ? ? : 3 3 < 8

Ladsuc 2

RNU5 ? 5 < : 9 2 2

Ladsuc 9

DH 8 ? ? 5 : 3 2 <

Ladsuc 3

DH5 ? 2 1 1 8 2 1

Ladsuc <

@S 8 ? ? : 1 5 8 ?

Ladsuc 4

@S5 ? 5 8? 1 ? 8 ?

Ladsuc :

Yhe`c 9& Rjhupfcrr yhe`c lnu czpcuakcfyr, `h+ec`ci lnu huch nl afycu|h` tjcuc hbysh` |h`scr

lc` & Sficu hfi N|cu afiabhyc hbysh` |h`scryjhy tcuc fny bhpysuci eq yjc puciabyanfr&

9&5 Hpp`abhyanf 8 + Rsbbcrra|c N|cu+Uc`hzhyanfBnic

Rsbbcrra|c N|cu+Uc`hzhyanf *RNU! ar h Ucds`hu R_KI

bnic yjhy rn`|cr @hp`hbc‑r cxshyanf& Nsu akp`ckcfyhyanf

srcr h uci+e`hbg rycfba` hppunhbj tjcuc yjc bh`bs`hyanf nl 

chbj pnafy af h duai hy yakcÚ 

ar icpcficfy nf yjc |h`scr af hrycfba hunsfi ay hy yakc Ú    »  & Yjc hpp abhyanf ar ia|aici afyn

‐uci‛ hfi ‐e`hbg‛ pjhrcr tayj bnkksfabhyanf hfi bnkps+

yhyanf h`ycufhyafd lnu chbj& Af nsu akp`ckcfyhyanf yjcrc ytn

pjhrcr ucpchy lnu h pucicfci fskecu nl aycuhyanfr&

2

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Ladsuc 2 rjntr yjc afycu|h` rynbjhryab |h`sc puciabyanfr

hfi yjc hbysh` yakc nl yjc RNU hpp`abhyanf usf tjcf yjc

_B@ b`srycu jhi ytn punbcrrnur tayj h jadj`q |huahe`c B_S

h|ha`hea`ayq nfc tayj h kciask |huahe`c h|ha`hea`ayq hfi

nfc tayj h `nt |huahe`c h|ha`hea`ayq& Srafd afycu|h` ucpuc+

rcfyhyanfr tc bhpysuc 5< nl 54 |h`scr& Lunk yjc rjhupfcrr

aflnukhyanf da|cf af Yhe`c 9 tc rcc h r`adjy eahr yn yjc

jadjcu |h`scr esy hr yjar ar fny rccf lnu yjc nyjcu RNU ihyh

rcyr ay ar `agc`q isc yn hf nsy`acu |h`sc lnu yjc B_S h|ha`+

hea`ayq& Lunk yjar aflnukhyanf tc h`rn rcc yjhy yjcrc |h`scr

jh|c h dnni rjhupfcrr yn yjck rafbc icbuchrafd yjc afycu|h`tns`i `agc`q `ntcu yjc bhpysuc pcubcfyhdc radfabhfy`q&

H rcbnfi rcy nl czpcuakcfyr lnu yjc RNU bnic nf yjc

_B@ b`srycu huc pucrcfyci af Ladsuc 9 usf tjcf yjc _B@

b`srycu jhi nfc jadj |huahe`c h|ha`hea`ayq ytn kciask |hua+

he`c h|ha`hea ayq hfi nfc `nt |huahe`c h|ha`hea`ayq& Yjcrc

czpcuakcfyr rjnt yjc ecfcyr nl rynbjhryab puciabyanfr

tjcf yjc czcbsyanf yakcr czjaeay hf czyuckc |huahfbc af

yjar bhrc |huahfbcpunisbyanf n|cu 2??#& Lnu yjcrc usfr yjc

afycu|h` ucpucrcfyhyanf bhpysuci 59 nl yjc 54 |h`scr& Lunk

yjc rjhupfcrr yhe`c yjc hbysh` |h`scr huc rpuchi hbunrr yjc

cfyauc uhfdc afiabhyafd yjhy yadjycu ensfir tns`i hi|curc`q

hllcby yjc bhpysuc pcubcfyhdc afiabhyafd h dnni y af ycukr

nl rjhupfcrr&

18?5323??&? 18?539???&? 18?5393??&? 18?533???&? 18?5333??&?

Yakc Ryhkpr

5?&?

2?&?

9?&?

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4?&?

    C   z   c   b   s    y    a   n   f    Y    a   k   c    *   r   c   b    !

Hbysh` Czcbsyanf Yakcr

Afycu|h` Rynbjhryab \h`sc _uciabyanf

Ladsuc 2& RNU8+ Afycu|h` rynbjhryab |h`sc puc+iabyanf lnu yjc RNU ecfbjkhug&

18?533???&?18?5333??&?18?53<???&?18?53<3??&?18?534???&?18?5343??&?18?53:???&?

Yakc Ryhkpr

?&?

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83?&?

    C   z   c   b   s    y    a   n   f    Y    a   k   c    *   r   c   b    !

Hbysh` Czcbsyanf Yakcr

Afycu|h` Rynbjhryab \h`sc _uciabyanf

Ladsuc 9& RNU5+ Afycu|h` rynbjhryab |h`sc puc+iabyanf lnu yjc RNU ecfbjkhug&

9&2 Hpp abhyanf 5 + Dcfcyab H`dnuayjk Bnic

Tc akp ckcfyci h dcfcyab h`dnuayjk *DH! jcsuaryab

lnu yjc Yuh|c`afd Rh`crkhf _une`ck *YR_! W< 8<[& Nsu

iaryuaesyci akp`ckcfyhyanf nl yjar dcfcyab h`dnuayjk srcr

h d`neh` pnps hyanf hfi rqfbjunfa}cr ecytccf dcfcuh+

yanfr W2[& H`` nl yjc R`h|cr npcuhyc nf h d`neh` pnps`hyanf

*chbj kckecu nl yjc pnps`hyanf ar h rn`syanf yn yjc YR_ lnu

h da|cf rcy nl bayacr! yjhy ar eunhibhry yn yjck& Chbj R`h|c

tnugr af arn`hyanf yn buchyc h rpcbaci fskecu nl bja`iucf

*ucpucrcfyafd fct ynsur! hfi yn c|h`shyc yjck& Nfbc h`` yjc

rcyr nl bja`iucf huc ucbca|ci eq yjc Khrycu yjcq huc rnuyci*eq clbacfbq nl yjc ynsu! rnkc pcubcfyhdc huc bjnrcf yn

ec yjc fczy dcfcuhyanf hfi yjc bqb`c ecdafr hdhaf&

DH8 Ladsuc 3 rjntr yjc afycu|h` rynbjhryab |h`sc puc+

iabyanfr hfi yjc hbysh` yakc usf tjcf yjc ytn khbjafcr nf

yjc b`srycu jhi h jadj`q |huahe`c h|ha`hea`ayq hfi ytn jhi

`nt |huahea ayq& Yjc puciabyanfr bhpysuci 81 nl 53 |h`scr&

DH5 Ladsuc < rjntr yjc afycu|h` rynbjhryab |h`sc puciab+

yanfr hfi yjc hbysh` yakc usf tjcf yjc _B@ b`srycu jhi ytn

jadj`q |huahe`c khbjafcr hfi ytn `nt |huahea`ayq khbjafcr&

Yjc afycu|h` ucpucrcfyhyanf bhpysuci 8< nl 53 |h`scr& Af

ycukr nl rjhupfcrr ay hppchur yjhy yjc afycu|h`r khq jh|c h

eahr hrrnbahyci tayj yjck ynthuir sficucryakhyanf nu khq

ec ynn yadjy hfi in fny yhgc afyn hbbnsfy yjc jadj |huahea ayqaf yjc iciabhyci pculnukhfbc nl yjar bnic af DH5&

18?25:???&? 18?25:3??&? 18?251???&? 18?2513??&? 18?22????&?Yakc Ryhkpr

?&?

5?&?

9?&?

<?&?

    C   z   c   b   s    y    a   n   f    Y    a   k   c    *   r   c   b    !

Hbysh` Czcbsyanf Yakcr

Afycu|h` Rynbjhryab \h`sc _uciabyanf

Ladsuc 3& DH8+ Afycu|h` rynbjhryab |h`sc puc+

iabyanf lnu yjc DH bnic&

9&9 Hpp abhyanf 2 + @S Ecfbjkhug

Yjc @S ecfbjkhug ar h raks`hyci BLI hpp`abhyanf yjhy

rn`|cr h e`nbg+`ntcu+yuahfds hu.e`nbg+sppcu+yuahfds`hu rqr+

yck nl cxshyanfr hfi ar nfc nl yjc FHR _huh``c` Ecfbj+

khugr *F_E! W8[& Yjar rqryck nl cxshyanfr ar yjc ucrs`y

nl hf sflhbynuci akp`abay fayc+iallcucfbc iarbucya}hyanf nl 

yjc Fh|acu+Ryngcr cxshyanfr af yjucc iakcfranfr& Yjc @S

ecfbjkhug fir `ntcu yuahfds`hu hfi sppcu yuahfds`hu kh+yuazcr rsbj yjhy É    Ë      lnu hf nuadafh` khyuaz   & Ay jhr

yjc lchysuc yjhy ay ycryr yjc bnkksfabhyanf hrpcbyr nl yjc

rqryck tc`` eq rcfiafd h uc`hya|c`q `hudc fskecu nl 3 tnui

kcrrhdcr&

9

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18?2513??&? 18?22????&? 18?22?3??&? 18?228???&? 18?2283??&?

Yakc Ryhkpr

?&?

3?&?

8??&?

83?&?

    C   z   c   b   s    y    a   n   f    Y    a   k   c    *   r   c   b    !

Hbysh` Czcbsyanf Yakcr

Afycu|h` Rynbjhryab \h`sc _uciabyanf

Ladsuc <& DH5+ Afycu|h` rynbjhryab |h`sc puc+iabyanf lnu yjc DH bnic&

@S8 Ladsuc 4 rjntr yjc afycu|h` rynbjhryab |h`sc puc+

iabyanfr hfi yjc hbysh` yakc usf tjcf ytn nl yjc khbjafcr

rjntci h jadj |huahea`ayq af h|ha`hea`ayq hfi ytn jhi h `nt

|huahea ayq& Yjc afycu|h` ucpucrcfyhyanf bhpysuci 58 nl yjc 53

|h`scr& @S5 Ladsuc : rjntr yjc afycu|h` rynbjhryab |h`sc

puciabyanfr hfi yjc hbysh` yakc usf tjcf yjc _B@ b`srycu

nfc jadj |huahea`ayq khbjafc nfc kciask |huahea`ayq kh+

bjafc hfi ytn `nt |huahea`ayq khbjafcr& Yjc afycu|h` ucpuc+rcfyhyanf bhpysuci 55 nl yjc 53 |h`scr& Yjc afycu|h`r bns`i

ec rjhupcu h`yjnsdj fn eahr ar c|aicfy& Hdhaf tc lcc` yjhy

yjar khq ec isc yn yjc jadj`q puciabyhe`c iciabhyci pculnu+

khfbc&

18?213???&? 18?21<???&? 18?214???&? 18?21:???&? 18?211???&?

Yakc Ryhkpr

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85?&?

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Hbysh` Czcbsyanf Yakcr

Afycu|h` Rynbjhryab \h`sc _uciabyanf

Ladsuc 4& @S8+ Afycu|h` rynbjhryab |h`sc puc+iabyanf lnu yjc @S ecfbjkhug&

9&3 Iarbsrranf

Af rskkhuq lnu yjc khmnuayq nl yjc czpcuakcfyr tc

hbjac|ci puciabyanfr yjhy bhpysuci yjc khmnuayq nl yjc

czcbsyanf ecjh|anu srafd afycu|h` ucpucrcfyhyanfr lnu yjc

rynbjhryab aflnukhyanf& Tc rht yjhy yjc rjhupfcrr nl yjcafycu|h` bns`i ec hllcbyci eq enyj yjc puciabyhea`ayq nl yjc

hpp`abhyanf af h iciabhyci rcyyafd yjc |huahyanf af h|ha`he`c

B_S hfi hfq eahr af yjc nuadafh` knic`& Tc pnrys`hyc yjhy

yjc yakc luhkc srci lnu yjc uhfdc nl |h`scr srci yn cryakhyc

18?21:???&? 18?211???&? 18?9?????&? 18?9?8???&?

Yakc Ryhkpr

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Hbysh` Czcbsyanf Yakcr

Afycu|h` Rynbjhryab \h`sc _uciabyanf

Ladsuc :& @S5+ Afycu|h` rynbjhryab |h`sc puc+iabyanf lnu yjc @S ecfbjkhug&

yjc h|ha`he`c B_S rjns`i ec himsryci eq yjcrc |h`scr af+

rychi nl zci af hf hpp`abhyanf icpcficfy khffcu& Yjar ar h

ynpab lnu lsysuc tnug&

3 Uc`hyci Tnug

Af puc|ansr tnug W83 89[ tc af|cryadhyci srafd h fnu+

kh` iaryuaesyanf afrychi nl hf sppcu ensfi hfi `ntcu ensfi

yn khgc puciabyanfr af bnfycfyanfr cf|aunfkcfyr& Yjar jhi

yjc hi|hfyhdc nl ecafd he`c yn adfnuc nsy`qafd |h`scr rafbc

tc srci h puciabyanf uhfdci ehrci nf yjc kchf p`sr nu ka+

fsr ytn ryhfihui ic|ahyanfr tayj yjc afycfyanf nl bhpysu+

afd nf`q 13# nl yjc |h`scr af yjc ecry bhrc& Jntc|cu yjar

kcyjnin`ndq thr bnkp`abhyci eq yjc lhby yjhy khfq rqryck

bjhuhbycuaryabr h|ha he`c B_S lnu nfc in fny jh|c h fnukh`

iaryuaesyanf yjsr `chiafd yn cuunur af yjc puciabyanfr hr tc``

hr yjc knuc bnkp`abhyci huayjkcyab af|n |ci tjcf jhfi`afd

rpcbah` bhrcr `agc knih` iaryuaesyanfr&

Yjcuc huc rc|cuh` uc`hyci hppunhbjcr& Fnyc yjhy rynbjhr+

yab |h`scr hr icfci jcuc huc fny uc`hyci yn _cyua fcy kni+c`r W1 88[ h`rn bh``ci ‐rynbjhryab knic`r‛ af hfq thq cz+

bcpy yjunsdj yjc hpp abhyanf nl bnf|cfyanfh` ryhyaryabh` ycbj+

faxscr&

Rnkc ucrchubjcur huc ecdaffafd yn src punehea`aryab ycbj+

faxscr yn ucpucrcfy ihyh lnu puciabyanfr nl hpp`abhyanf pcu+

lnukhfbc af iaryuaesyci cf|aunfkcfyr& Euhra`caun cy h`& W9[

src punehea ayq iaryuaesyanf lsfbyanfr yn bh`bs`hyc thay yakcr

nf h yngcf uafd fcytnug& Yjar tnug enuuntr jch|a q lunk

xscsafd yjcnuq af h ksbj knuc yjcnucyabh` rcyyafd yjhf nsu

punisbyanf rcyyafd&

Yjc knry b`nrc q uc hyci tnug yn nsu hppunhbj ar eq

Kcficr hr phuy nl yjc Uabc Lnuyuhf I13 bnkpa cu W8?[&

Yjcq dcfcuhyc rqken`ab pculnukhfbc puciabyanfr srafd hihyh phuh``c` bnkpa`cu& Yjc bnkpa`cu dcfcuhycr sppcu hfi

`ntcu ensfir lnu puciabyci czcbsyanf yakc eq bnfraicuafd

czyuckh nl rqryck+icpcficfy bnfryhfyr *cd& kcknuq ucl+

cucfbcr yakcr!& Yjar tnug hrrskcr rnkc ehrc`afc rqryck

3

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ecfbjkhugr esy hy h ksbj `ntcu `c|c` yjhf tc czpcby hfi

bhffny yhgc afyn hbbnsfy iqfhkab usfyakc aflnukhyanf cz+

bcpy hr srcu+pun|aici cryakhycr&

Nsu tnug ar rnkctjhy uc`hyci yn ‐xsh`ayq nl aflnukh+

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psyafd W5 4[& Yjcrc hppunhbjcr jh|c ecdsf yn hiiucrr yjc

fcci lnu hiiayanfh` aflnukhyanf af nuicu yn khgc cisbhyci

icbaranfr hensy pculnukhfbc af h b`srycu cf|aunfkcfy tayj

iqfhkab `nhi& Srafd h rynbjhryab |h`sc yn ucpucrcfy yjc

uhfdc nl |h`scr pnrrae`c lunk rnkc rqryck nu hpp`abhyanf

bjhuhbycuaryab ar nfc rycp af yjar iaucbyanf&

< Rskkhuq hfi Lsysuc Tnug

Af yjar phpcu tc icrbuaec h fct hppunhbj yn hpp`abhyanf

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kcfyr& Tc jh|c icfci rynbjhryab |h`scr yn ucstcby h `agc`q

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uhkcycur hr tc`` hr rynbjhryab pculnukhfbc puciabyanfr& Tc

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