Teaching Decision Makingto Adolescents

Edited by

Jonathan BaronUniversity of Pennsylvania

Rex V. BrownDecision Sciences Consortium, Inc.

Reston, VA

LAWRENCE ERLBAUM ASSOCIATES, PUBLISHERS1991 Hillsdale, New Jersey Hove and London

Contents

List of Contributors xi

Prologue: Why Americans Can't Think Straight 1Jonathan Baron and Rex V. Brown

Teaching Decision Making 3Personalized Decision Analysis 4The Reflective Self 5

Chapter 1Introduction 7Jonathan Baron and Rex V. Brown

Scope of Book 7Adolescent Decision Making: Is it Deficient

and if so, How? 8How Should Deficiencies in Decision Making

be Corrected? 9Evaluating Success 12Institutionalizing Teaching in the Schools 15Should Decision Making be Taught? 17

Chapter 2Teaching Decision Making to Adolescents:A Critical Review 19Ruth Beyth-Marom, Baruch Fischhoff,Marilyn Jacobs Quadrel, and Lita Furby

Vi CONTENTS

Introduction 19Decision Making: Definition and

Normative Models 20Programs Focused on Decision-Making Skills 32Programs Teaching Social and Life Skills 39Summary and Conclusions 46

Chapter 3The GOFER Course in Decision Making 61Leon Mann, Ros Harmoni, and Colin Power

The Origin of GOFER 62GOFER and GOOFER 64Overview of the GOFER Course 66When to Teach a Course in Decision Making? 68Evaluation 71Attitudes and Values About Decision Making 74Implementation of the Course 76

Chapter 4Thinking and Decision Making 79Marilyn Jager Adams and Carl E. Feehrer

The Odyssey Framework 80Evaluation of the Curriculum 92Summary 93

Chapter SToward Improved Instruction in Decision Makingto Adolescents: A Conceptual Framework andPilot Program 95Jonathan Baron and Rex V. Brown

Introduction 95Flaws to be Corrected: Heuristics and Biases 98Concepts to be Absorbed l00Pedagogy 105A Research and Pilot Teaching Program 108Measuring the Impact of Decision Training 110Conclusion 114Appendix A: Illustrative Analysis of a Personal

Decision 119Appendix B: Courses Taught as Part of DSC

Project 121

CONTENTS VII

Chapter 6Evaluation of an Intermediate Level DecisionAnalysis Course 123Kathryn Blackmond Laskey and Vincent N. Campbell

Introduction 123A Unit in Decision Analysis 124Formal Evaluation of Decision-Making Course 130Informal Evaluation of Decision-Making Course 138Discussion and Lessons Learned 143

Chapter 7Teaching Decision Making in the City:Two Experiences 147Greer Graumlich and Jonathan Baron

Graumlich's Class 147Baron's Class 154Conclusion 158

Chapter 8Teaching the Foundations of Social Decision Makingand Problem Solving in the Elementary School 161Maurice J. Elias, Leslie R. Branden-Muller,and Michael A. Sayette

A Comparison of Approaches 165

Chapter 9Teaching Decision-Making Skills to Student Nurses 185James Shanteau, Margaret Grter, Joyce Johnson,and Eta Berner

Method 190Results 194Discussion 197Appendix 203

viii CONTENTS

Chapter 10Analog Devices for Teaching Decision Skills

to Adolescents 2O7Anne W. Martin and Rex V. Brown

Introduction 207Case Testing the Beam as a Problem-Solving Aid 211Experiments on Developing Mathematical

Intuition 218Conclusions 227Appendix A: Alternative Analog Possibilities 230Appendix B: Intuition Training Exercises 233

Chapter 11Learning-Disabled Adolescents' Difficultiesin Solving Personal/Social Problems 237Joanna P. Williams

Training in Problem Solving 238Comprehension 241Our Research Program 243Instruction 260Summary 266

Editors' Preface to Chapter 12 271

Chapter 12Normative Decision Making 273John A. Swets

Introduction 273Lesson 1: A Dice Game Illustrative of Some

Common Decision Problems 275Lesson 2: Analyzing the Dice Game 276Lesson 3: Variations of the Dice Game 279Lesson 4: A General Formula for the Optimal

Criterion 280Lesson 5: The Practical Generality of the Dice-Game

Analysis 283Lesson 6: Other Decision Settings and Other

Decision Rules 287Lesson 7: Related Concepts in Statistical

Inference 290Lesson 8: Some Other Relationships Between Relevant

Quantities in Decision Making 292

CONTENTS IX

Chapter 13Institutional Strategy for TeachingDecision Making in Schools 297Vincent N. Campbell and Kathryn B. Laskey

Introduction 297Curriculum Content 298Instrustructional Techniques 300Teacher Acceptance 3O4Outreach 306

Chapter 14Metaphors for Effective Thinking 3O9Daniel D. Wheeler

Introduction 309The Metaphor of Problem Solving 313The Metaphor of Decision Making 316The Metaphor of Design 320The Metaphor of Improvisation 323

Conclusions 326

Author Index 329

Subject Index 341