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Teacher supply and demand:An analysis of current developments in Newfoundland and Labrador
David C. Dibbon
Faculty of Education
Memorial University of Newfoundland
May 2001
Overview
• Research design
• Factors affecting teacher demand
• Measures of teacher demand
• Sources of teacher supply
Research Design
• Original research conducted in 6 phases– Review of literature– Forces influencing supply and demand– Assessment of present and future demands– Sources of teacher supply– Teacher retention– Conclusions and recommendations
Factors Affecting Teacher Demand
• Globalization– Increased mobility– Changes to curriculum
• Policy– Teacher allocation formula– Teacher retirement patterns
• Demographics– Population trends– Student Enrollment trends – Teacher retirement trends
Population Trends
Newfoundland Population: Actual and Projected 1994-2004
500,000
520,000
540,000
560,000
580,000
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
Population Trends
Net Inter-provincial Migration
19901995
199819992000
20012002
20032004200520062007200820092010
-8000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0
Population Trends
Newfoundland Live Births 1972-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Bir
ths
Population Trends
Median Ages of Newfoundland Population: Actual and Projected 1971-2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
Year
Me
dia
n A
ge
20.9 22.7 25.2 27.8 30.7 33.9 36.8 40
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Student Enrollment
Student population: actual and projected: 1990-2010
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
stu
de
nts
Teacher Population
Teacher Projections 2000-2010
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Te
ach
ers
Teacher Retirement
Number of Teachers Retiring by Year
0100200300400500600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Te
ac
he
rs
female male totals
Teacher Retirement
Age Distribution for Teacher Population 2000-2001
0
500
1000
1500
2000
< 25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+
Age Group
Nu
mb
er o
f Te
ach
ers
Teacher Retirement
Number of Teachers by Teaching Experience 2000-2001
0
500
1000
1500
<1 1-4.9 5-9.9 10-14.9
15-19.9
20-24.9
25-29.9
30+
Years Experience
Nu
mb
er o
f Te
ach
ers
Measures of Teacher Demand
• Specializations– mathematics
– science
– French
– guidance
– special education
– administration
• Geography– urban
– rural
– remote
– isolated
Areas of Specialization
Secondary School Teachers Eligible to Retire within 5 Years
0200400600800
Subject Area
Nu
mb
er
Geographical Regions
Urban Rural Remote Isolated
Relatively easy Very difficult
Teacher Supply
Substitute Teachers By Year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
Nu
mb
er
Teacher Supply
Substitute teaching areas
05
1015202530354045
Subjects
Pe
rce
nt
Major
Minor
Teacher Supply
Number of Admissions by Program:1992-2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents
prim/elem secondary music spec. ed.
Teacher Supply
New graduates by Major (Secondary)
01020
3040
Major
Nu
mb
er
of
Stu
de
nts
2000 2001
Conclusions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
