6
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1 DAILY TRIM Daily This week we expect market to be focused on earnings. Among large caps, we expect BBRI, BBCA, BBNI to post good earnings results. We also highlight dividend plays as we are near the ex dates now: MPPA 7% yield, PTBA 5%, TLKM 4.4%, PGAS 3.9%, ITMG 3.8% (excl. interim). We also publish BKSL non-rated note - highest discount to NAV at 74%! Potential catalyst: Resorts, universities, and other facilities to be constructed in Bukit Sentul’s new CBD, which should help raise overall land price, implying potential upside risk to NAV (despite already big discount). Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) was up by 24.0 points or 0.49% to 4,897.1 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by Agricultural (+1.74%), Consumer Goods (+1.58%), and Misc. Industries (+0.73%). Total transaction value was Rp5.2tr with regular market transaction Rp4.6tr. IDX recorded Rp673bn net buy by foreign investors. We expect JCI to further strengthen, with today’s trading range of 4864- -4933 JCI 4,897.1 STOCK PRICE Rec Details PTBA 9700 Buy We expect PTBA to trade up today in the range of 9575-9825. Buy at level 9600 with target price 9825 (resistance) ITMG 25325 Buy With stochastic indicator to form a golden cross, we expect a upware movement for ITMG today in the range of 25100-25700 ADRO 980 Buy ADRO is a short term bullish. We expect ADRO to further strengthen, with today’s trading range of 930-1125 INCO 3555 Buy INCO remains strong with potential upside in the range of 3500-3695 for today. AALI 28350 Buy If 28400 break, Buy AALI at level 28400 with potential upside to level 29400 GGRM 50600 Spec Buy Spec Buy GGRM at level 49550 with target price today at level 51200 MPPA 2640 Spec Buy Stochastic Oscilator indicates positive signal of a potential technical rebound for MPPA. Spec Buy at level 2400 with target price 2715 (resistance) WIKA 2230 Sell WIKA formed a Overbought, we expect a technical correction for WIKA today in the range of 2050-2315 PTPP 1800 Sell PTPP today is expected to continue its weakening trend and trade in 1700-1940 range ASRI 555 Sell Based on technical analysis, as its Stochastic Ochilator formed a dead cross, we expect ASRI to move downward today within the range of 530-570 TRIM Highlights Market View Trader’s Pick REKSA DANA TRIMEGAH ASSET MANAGEMENT NAB Chg % Trim Kapital 8,318.9 66.5 0.81 Trim Kapital + 3,082.0 18.0 0.59 Trim Syariah SHM 1,541.9 12.2 0.80 Tram Consumption + 1,353.5 5.6 0.41 Trim Komb 2 1,832.7 8.1 0.44 Trim Syariah B 2,191.1 17.3 0.80 Trim Dana Stabil 2,089.7 1.1 0.05 Trim Dana Tetap 2 1,662.4 1.1 0.07 Tram PDPT USD 1.1 0.0 0.02 Tram Reguler INC 994.7 0.0 0.00 Tram Strategic Fund 1,075.5 0.3 0.03 Trim Kas 2 1,072.3 0.3 0.02 APRIL 21, 2014 Change : 0.49% Transaction Volume (m) : 3,576.7 Transaction Value (Rpbn) : 5,200.4 Mkt Cap (Rptr) : 4,848.9 Market P/E (x) : 15.5 Market Div. Yield (%) : 2.0 Price Chg % Dow Jones 16,408.5 -16.3 -0.1 Nasdaq 4,095.5 9.3 0.2 Nikkei 14,516.3 98.6 0.7 ST Times 3,253.8 0.6 0.0 FTSE 6,625.3 41.1 0.6 Hang Seng 22,760.2 64.2 0.3 GLOBAL INDICES (USD) (Rp) Chg % 41.0 11,715.3 0.07 0.2 X.X DUAL LISTING (NYSE ) Chg % USD IDR 11,424 -12.0 -0.1 10 yr Indo Govr bond (%) 7.95 0.1 0.7 10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.7 0.09 3.6 Spread (%) 5.22 -0.04 -2.9 EIDO 28.3 0.1 0.5 Foreign YtD (USDmn) 2,828 58.9 2.1 OTHERS Global Wrap In U.S., the U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 304,000 in April 12 week (vs consensus: 315,000), following an upwardly revised 302,000 in prior week. Meanwhile, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed business outlook jumped to 16.6 in April (vs consensus: 9.5) from 9.0 in March.

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Page 1: td140421_2

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1DAILY

TRIM Daily

This week we expect market to be focused on earnings. Among large caps, we

expect BBRI, BBCA, BBNI to post good earnings results. We also highlight dividend

plays as we are near the ex dates now: MPPA 7% yield, PTBA 5%, TLKM 4.4%,

PGAS 3.9%, ITMG 3.8% (excl. interim). We also publish BKSL non-rated note

- highest discount to NAV at 74%! Potential catalyst: Resorts, universities, and

other facilities to be constructed in Bukit Sentul’s new CBD, which should help

raise overall land price, implying potential upside risk to NAV (despite already big

discount).

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) was up by 24.0 points or 0.49% to 4,897.1 yesterday.

Index movers were mostly driven by Agricultural (+1.74%), Consumer Goods

(+1.58%), and Misc. Industries (+0.73%). Total transaction value was Rp5.2tr

with regular market transaction Rp4.6tr. IDX recorded Rp673bn net buy by foreign

investors. We expect JCI to further strengthen, with today’s trading range of 4864-

-4933

JCI 4,897.1

STOCK PRICE Rec Details

PTBA 9700 BuyWe expect PTBA to trade up today in the range of 9575-9825. Buy at level 9600 with target price 9825 (resistance)

ITMG 25325 BuyWith stochastic indicator to form a golden cross, we expect a upware movement for ITMG today in the range of 25100-25700

ADRO 980 BuyADRO is a short term bullish. We expect ADRO to further strengthen, with today’s trading range of 930-1125

INCO 3555 BuyINCO remains strong with potential upside in the range of 3500-3695 for today.

AALI 28350 BuyIf 28400 break, Buy AALI at level 28400 with potential upside to level 29400

GGRM 50600 Spec BuySpec Buy GGRM at level 49550 with target price today at level 51200

MPPA 2640 Spec BuyStochastic Oscilator indicates positive signal of a potential technical rebound for MPPA. Spec Buy at level 2400 with target price 2715 (resistance)

WIKA 2230 SellWIKA formed a Overbought, we expect a technical correction for WIKA today in the range of 2050-2315

PTPP 1800 SellPTPP today is expected to continue its weakening trend and trade in 1700-1940 range

ASRI 555 SellBased on technical analysis, as its Stochastic Ochilator formed a dead cross, we expect ASRI to move downward today within the range of 530-570

TRIM Highlights

Market View

Trader’s Pick

REKSA DANA TRIMEGAH ASSET MANAGEMENT

NAB Chg %

Trim Kapital 8,318.9 66.5 0.81

Trim Kapital + 3,082.0 18.0 0.59

Trim Syariah SHM 1,541.9 12.2 0.80

Tram Consumption + 1,353.5 5.6 0.41

Trim Komb 2 1,832.7 8.1 0.44

Trim Syariah B 2,191.1 17.3 0.80

Trim Dana Stabil 2,089.7 1.1 0.05

Trim Dana Tetap 2 1,662.4 1.1 0.07

Tram PDPT USD 1.1 0.0 0.02

Tram Reguler INC 994.7 0.0 0.00

Tram Strategic Fund 1,075.5 0.3 0.03

Trim Kas 2 1,072.3 0.3 0.02

APRIL 21, 2014

Change : 0.49%

Transaction Volume (m) : 3,576.7

Transaction Value (Rpbn) : 5,200.4

Mkt Cap (Rptr) : 4,848.9

Market P/E (x) : 15.5

Market Div. Yield (%) : 2.0

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 16,408.5 -16.3 -0.1

Nasdaq 4,095.5 9.3 0.2

Nikkei 14,516.3 98.6 0.7

ST Times 3,253.8 0.6 0.0

FTSE 6,625.3 41.1 0.6

Hang Seng 22,760.2 64.2 0.3

GLOBAL INDICES

(USD) (Rp) Chg %

41.0 11,715.3 0.07 0.2 X.X

DUAL LISTING (NYSE )

Chg %

USD IDR 11,424 -12.0 -0.1

10 yr Indo Govr bond (%) 7.95 0.1 0.7

10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.7 0.09 3.6

Spread (%) 5.22 -0.04 -2.9

EIDO 28.3 0.1 0.5

Foreign YtD (USDmn) 2,828 58.9 2.1

OTHERS

Global WrapIn U.S., the U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 304,000 in April 12 week (vs

consensus: 315,000), following an upwardly revised 302,000 in prior week.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed business outlook jumped to 16.6 in April (vs

consensus: 9.5) from 9.0 in March.

Page 2: td140421_2

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com2 DAILY

News of the DayPLN: Worried about gas supply

Amid heightened demand for electricity, PT PLN is struggling

to source gas to feed its power plants. The company would

need 28 cargos of liquefi ed gas this year. The number will

double to 56 cargos in 2012 and is expected to increase to 60

the following year. Of the total cargos needed next year, PLN

has secured 22 from the Bontang plant in East Kalimantan

and 12 from the Tangguh plant in Papua. Indonesia has a

signifi cant amount of natural gas resources, around 104

trillion standard cubic feet (tscf) in proven and 48 tscf in

potential gas reserves. That fi gure makes the country the 13th

largest owner of proven natural gas reserves in the world.

The government has called for higher domestic utilization of

gas in an attempt to reduce dependency on oil. Figures from

SKKMigas showed that domestic and gas distribution reached

52.1% of total production in 2013. This year, SKKMigas in

targeting 57.3% of total gas produced to be sold to the

domestic market. Source: The Jakarta Post

GJTL: Seeking to increase export contribution

GJTL seeks to have its export business contributes 30-35%

from total revenue. In 2013, it recorded revenue of Rp9.1tr,

a 2.9% decrease YoY. Its export contribution in 2013 was

at 32.2%, down from 36.8% YoY. Its net income decreased

by 44.9% YoY to Rp375bn due to mainly foreign exchange

difference. Target revenue growth for 2014 is set at 5-10%

and GJTL has set aside USD120-25mn capex for this year.

Source: Kontan

GIAA: Trans Airways’ ownership increased to 28%

PT Trans Airways ownership in GIAA increased by 2.75bn

shares to 3.65bn shares, giving it 28% ownership from

previously 16%. Previously GIAA has rights issue amounting

to 3.23bn shares, of which was not exercised by the

government. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

AALI: Expanding into rubber plantation of 2,000ha

AALI is set to expand its rubber planted area up to 2,000ha

this year. Currently it has 500ha of rubber plantation located

in Muara Teweh, Central Kalimantan. The rubber plantation

would be used to support tire production of its sister company,

AUTO. AALI allocates Rp3tr in capex this year, which would be

mostly used for expansion of its palm oil business. Source:

Investor Daily

TICKERdividend

(Rp/shares)Price

(17-apr-14)Rating

Target price

Dividend yield

EX Date TYPE Pay Date

MPPA 186 2,640 Buy 3,000 7.0% 6-May-14 Regular + Special Cash 19-May-14

PTBA 462 9,700 Buy 12,000 4.8% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/16/2014

TLKM 102 2,325 Buy 2,497 4.4% 4/30/2014 Regular + Special Cash 5/19/2014

PGAS 210 5,350 Hold 5,100 3.9% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/19/2014

ITMG 975 25,325 Buy 32,000 3.8% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/14/2014

MLPL 21 640 NA NA 3.3% 5/19/2014 Regular Cash 6/5/2014

BBNI 146 5,050 Buy 5,600 2.9% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/19/2014

BDMN 127 4,470 Hold 4,250 2.8% 5/30/2014 BDVD Forecast -

SMGR 407 15,825 Hold 17,000 2.6% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/19/2014

BBRI 257 10,000 Buy 11,600 2.6% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/14/2014

BMRI 234 9,850 Buy 11,200 2.4% 3/27/2014 Regular Cash 4/15/2014

INDF 165 7,200 NA 7,781 2.3% 7/17/2014 BDVD Forecast -

ASII 166 7,825 NA 7,560 2.1% 5/20/2014 BDVD Forecast -

INTP 470 23,450 Buy 27,400 2.0% 6/20/2014 BDVD Forecast -

GGRM 900 50,600 Hold 54,760 1.8% 7/31/2014 BDVD Forecast -

UNTR 350 21,600 Buy 24,000 1.6% 5/17/2014 BDVD Forecast -

WSKT 11 740 Buy 690 1.5% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/19/2014

PTPP 26 1,800 Buy 1,800 1.4% 4/22/2014 Regular Cash 5/7/2014

KLBF 20 1,545 Hold 1,535 1.3% 6/13/2014 BDVD Forecast -

WIKA 28 2,230 Buy 2,850 1.2% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/13/2014

ADRO 11 980 Buy 1,300 1.2% 5/29/2014 BDVD Forecast -

UNVR 320 30,800 Hold 28,404 1.0% 6/30/2014 BDVD Forecast -

AALI 290 28,350 Hold 25,732 1.0% 5/8/2014 BDVD Forecast -

BBCA 75 11,200 Buy 12,200 0.7% 4/30/2014 Final 5/20/2014

Dividend Table

Page 3: td140421_2

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 3DAILY

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Statistics

INDONESIA & SECTORS +/- (%) YTD(%)

COMMODITIES +/- (%) YTD(%)

INDICES REGION +/- (%) YTD(%)

KURS REGION +/- (%) YTD(%)

JCI WINNERS (%) JCI LOSERS (%) JCI VOLUME (Lot) JCI FREQ (X)JCI VALUE (Rpmn)

Page 4: td140421_2

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 4DAILY

World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

16-Apr-14 US Housing Starts (000's) Mar 970 946 920

US Building Permits (000's) Mar 1,010 990 1,014

US Industrial Production MoM (%) Mar 0.5 0.7 1.2

CH GDP YoY (%) 1Q 7.3 7.4 7.7

EC CPI MoM (%) Mar 1.0 0.9 0.3

EC CPI YoY (%) Mar F 0.5 0.5 0.5

JN Industrial Production MoM (%) Feb F -- -2.3 -2.4

17-Apr-14 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Apr 9.5 16.6 9.0

US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 12-Apr 315 304 302

21-Apr-14 JN Trade Balance (JPY bn) Mar -1,066.0 -- -802.5

JN Exports YoY (%) Mar 7.2 -- 9.8

JN Imports YoY (%) Mar 15.5 -- 9.0

22-Apr-14 US Existing Home Sales (USD mn) Mar 4.55 -- 4.60

US Existing Home Sales MoM Mar -1.1 -- -0.40

EC Consumer Confi dence Apr A -9.3 -- -9.3

23-Apr-14 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Apr P 56.3 -- 55.5

US New Home Sales (000's) Mar 455 -- 440

US New Home Sales MoM (%) Mar 3.4 -- -3.30

CH HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Apr P 48.5 -- 48.0

EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr P 53.0 -- 53.0

GE Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI Apr P 53.7 -- 53.7

24-Apr-14 US Durable Goods Orders (%) Mar 1.0 -- 2.2

GE IFO Business Climate Apr 110.4 -- 110.7

GE IFO Expectations Apr 105.8 -- 106.4

25-Apr-14 US Univ. of Michigan Confi dence Apr F 83.0 -- 82.6

US Markit US Composite PMI Apr P -- -- 55.7

US Markit US Services PMI Apr P -- -- 55.3

JN Natl CPI YoY (%) Mar 1.7 -- 1.5

27-Apr-14 GE Retail Sales MoM (%) Mar -- -- 1.3

GE Retail Sales YoY (%) Mar -- -- 2.0

28-Apr-14 US Pending Home Sales MoM (%) Mar -- -- -0.8

US Pending Home Sales YoY (%) Mar -- -- -10.2

US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Apr -- -- 4.9

29-Apr-14 US Consumer Confi dence Index Apr -- -- 82.3

GE CPI MoM (%) Apr P -- -- 0.30

GE CPI YoY (%) Apr P -- -- 1.0

JN Industrial Production MoM (%) Mar P -- -- -2.3

30-Apr-14 US ADP Employment Change (000's) Apr -- -- 191

US GDP Annualized QoQ (%) 1Q A 1.0 -- 2.6

US Personal Consumption (%) 1Q A -- -- 3.3

US Core PCE QoQ (%) 1Q A -- -- 1.3

US ISM Milwaukee Apr -- -- 56.03

US Chicago Purchasing Manager Apr -- -- 55.9

GE Unemployment Change (000's) Apr -- -- -12000

GE Unemployment Rate (%) Apr -- -- 6.7

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PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 5DAILY5

RESEARCH TEAM

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Frederick Daniel Tanggela

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Robby Hafi l

Equity Analyst

(robby.hafi [email protected])

Melvina Wildasari

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

EQUITY CAPITAL MARKET TEAM

JAKARTA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Musji Hartono

Mangga Dua, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Jakarta

([email protected])

SUMATRA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

Hari Mulyono Soewandi

Palembang, Sumatra Selatan

([email protected])

Maria Renata

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Hapiz Sakti Azi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Research Associate

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Wiranto Sunyoto

Branch Area Manager

([email protected])

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Agus Jatmiko

Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur

([email protected])

Arifi n Pribadi

Ujung Pandang, Sulawesi Selatan

(arifi [email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Andrew Jatmiko

Yogyakarta, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Muhammad Ishaq

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

Joshua N.C. Tjeuw

Research Associate

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffi anto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

(ariffi [email protected])

INSTITUTIONAL SALES

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

[email protected]

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

[email protected]

Meitawati

Equity Institutional Sales

[email protected]

Fachruly Fiater

Equity Institutional Sales

fachruly.fi [email protected]

Henry Sidarta

Equity Institutional Sales

[email protected]

Raditya Andyono

Equity Institutional Sales

[email protected]

Nancy Pardede

Equity Institutional Sales

[email protected]

Page 6: td140421_2

DISCLAIMER:This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affi liated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any offi cer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com