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PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1DAILY
TRIM Daily
This week we expect market to be focused on earnings. Among large caps, we
expect BBRI, BBCA, BBNI to post good earnings results. We also highlight dividend
plays as we are near the ex dates now: MPPA 7% yield, PTBA 5%, TLKM 4.4%,
PGAS 3.9%, ITMG 3.8% (excl. interim). We also publish BKSL non-rated note
- highest discount to NAV at 74%! Potential catalyst: Resorts, universities, and
other facilities to be constructed in Bukit Sentul’s new CBD, which should help
raise overall land price, implying potential upside risk to NAV (despite already big
discount).
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) was up by 24.0 points or 0.49% to 4,897.1 yesterday.
Index movers were mostly driven by Agricultural (+1.74%), Consumer Goods
(+1.58%), and Misc. Industries (+0.73%). Total transaction value was Rp5.2tr
with regular market transaction Rp4.6tr. IDX recorded Rp673bn net buy by foreign
investors. We expect JCI to further strengthen, with today’s trading range of 4864-
-4933
JCI 4,897.1
STOCK PRICE Rec Details
PTBA 9700 BuyWe expect PTBA to trade up today in the range of 9575-9825. Buy at level 9600 with target price 9825 (resistance)
ITMG 25325 BuyWith stochastic indicator to form a golden cross, we expect a upware movement for ITMG today in the range of 25100-25700
ADRO 980 BuyADRO is a short term bullish. We expect ADRO to further strengthen, with today’s trading range of 930-1125
INCO 3555 BuyINCO remains strong with potential upside in the range of 3500-3695 for today.
AALI 28350 BuyIf 28400 break, Buy AALI at level 28400 with potential upside to level 29400
GGRM 50600 Spec BuySpec Buy GGRM at level 49550 with target price today at level 51200
MPPA 2640 Spec BuyStochastic Oscilator indicates positive signal of a potential technical rebound for MPPA. Spec Buy at level 2400 with target price 2715 (resistance)
WIKA 2230 SellWIKA formed a Overbought, we expect a technical correction for WIKA today in the range of 2050-2315
PTPP 1800 SellPTPP today is expected to continue its weakening trend and trade in 1700-1940 range
ASRI 555 SellBased on technical analysis, as its Stochastic Ochilator formed a dead cross, we expect ASRI to move downward today within the range of 530-570
TRIM Highlights
Market View
Trader’s Pick
REKSA DANA TRIMEGAH ASSET MANAGEMENT
NAB Chg %
Trim Kapital 8,318.9 66.5 0.81
Trim Kapital + 3,082.0 18.0 0.59
Trim Syariah SHM 1,541.9 12.2 0.80
Tram Consumption + 1,353.5 5.6 0.41
Trim Komb 2 1,832.7 8.1 0.44
Trim Syariah B 2,191.1 17.3 0.80
Trim Dana Stabil 2,089.7 1.1 0.05
Trim Dana Tetap 2 1,662.4 1.1 0.07
Tram PDPT USD 1.1 0.0 0.02
Tram Reguler INC 994.7 0.0 0.00
Tram Strategic Fund 1,075.5 0.3 0.03
Trim Kas 2 1,072.3 0.3 0.02
APRIL 21, 2014
Change : 0.49%
Transaction Volume (m) : 3,576.7
Transaction Value (Rpbn) : 5,200.4
Mkt Cap (Rptr) : 4,848.9
Market P/E (x) : 15.5
Market Div. Yield (%) : 2.0
Price Chg %
Dow Jones 16,408.5 -16.3 -0.1
Nasdaq 4,095.5 9.3 0.2
Nikkei 14,516.3 98.6 0.7
ST Times 3,253.8 0.6 0.0
FTSE 6,625.3 41.1 0.6
Hang Seng 22,760.2 64.2 0.3
GLOBAL INDICES
(USD) (Rp) Chg %
41.0 11,715.3 0.07 0.2 X.X
DUAL LISTING (NYSE )
Chg %
USD IDR 11,424 -12.0 -0.1
10 yr Indo Govr bond (%) 7.95 0.1 0.7
10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.7 0.09 3.6
Spread (%) 5.22 -0.04 -2.9
EIDO 28.3 0.1 0.5
Foreign YtD (USDmn) 2,828 58.9 2.1
OTHERS
Global WrapIn U.S., the U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 304,000 in April 12 week (vs
consensus: 315,000), following an upwardly revised 302,000 in prior week.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed business outlook jumped to 16.6 in April (vs
consensus: 9.5) from 9.0 in March.
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com2 DAILY
News of the DayPLN: Worried about gas supply
Amid heightened demand for electricity, PT PLN is struggling
to source gas to feed its power plants. The company would
need 28 cargos of liquefi ed gas this year. The number will
double to 56 cargos in 2012 and is expected to increase to 60
the following year. Of the total cargos needed next year, PLN
has secured 22 from the Bontang plant in East Kalimantan
and 12 from the Tangguh plant in Papua. Indonesia has a
signifi cant amount of natural gas resources, around 104
trillion standard cubic feet (tscf) in proven and 48 tscf in
potential gas reserves. That fi gure makes the country the 13th
largest owner of proven natural gas reserves in the world.
The government has called for higher domestic utilization of
gas in an attempt to reduce dependency on oil. Figures from
SKKMigas showed that domestic and gas distribution reached
52.1% of total production in 2013. This year, SKKMigas in
targeting 57.3% of total gas produced to be sold to the
domestic market. Source: The Jakarta Post
GJTL: Seeking to increase export contribution
GJTL seeks to have its export business contributes 30-35%
from total revenue. In 2013, it recorded revenue of Rp9.1tr,
a 2.9% decrease YoY. Its export contribution in 2013 was
at 32.2%, down from 36.8% YoY. Its net income decreased
by 44.9% YoY to Rp375bn due to mainly foreign exchange
difference. Target revenue growth for 2014 is set at 5-10%
and GJTL has set aside USD120-25mn capex for this year.
Source: Kontan
GIAA: Trans Airways’ ownership increased to 28%
PT Trans Airways ownership in GIAA increased by 2.75bn
shares to 3.65bn shares, giving it 28% ownership from
previously 16%. Previously GIAA has rights issue amounting
to 3.23bn shares, of which was not exercised by the
government. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
AALI: Expanding into rubber plantation of 2,000ha
AALI is set to expand its rubber planted area up to 2,000ha
this year. Currently it has 500ha of rubber plantation located
in Muara Teweh, Central Kalimantan. The rubber plantation
would be used to support tire production of its sister company,
AUTO. AALI allocates Rp3tr in capex this year, which would be
mostly used for expansion of its palm oil business. Source:
Investor Daily
TICKERdividend
(Rp/shares)Price
(17-apr-14)Rating
Target price
Dividend yield
EX Date TYPE Pay Date
MPPA 186 2,640 Buy 3,000 7.0% 6-May-14 Regular + Special Cash 19-May-14
PTBA 462 9,700 Buy 12,000 4.8% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/16/2014
TLKM 102 2,325 Buy 2,497 4.4% 4/30/2014 Regular + Special Cash 5/19/2014
PGAS 210 5,350 Hold 5,100 3.9% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/19/2014
ITMG 975 25,325 Buy 32,000 3.8% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/14/2014
MLPL 21 640 NA NA 3.3% 5/19/2014 Regular Cash 6/5/2014
BBNI 146 5,050 Buy 5,600 2.9% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/19/2014
BDMN 127 4,470 Hold 4,250 2.8% 5/30/2014 BDVD Forecast -
SMGR 407 15,825 Hold 17,000 2.6% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/19/2014
BBRI 257 10,000 Buy 11,600 2.6% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/14/2014
BMRI 234 9,850 Buy 11,200 2.4% 3/27/2014 Regular Cash 4/15/2014
INDF 165 7,200 NA 7,781 2.3% 7/17/2014 BDVD Forecast -
ASII 166 7,825 NA 7,560 2.1% 5/20/2014 BDVD Forecast -
INTP 470 23,450 Buy 27,400 2.0% 6/20/2014 BDVD Forecast -
GGRM 900 50,600 Hold 54,760 1.8% 7/31/2014 BDVD Forecast -
UNTR 350 21,600 Buy 24,000 1.6% 5/17/2014 BDVD Forecast -
WSKT 11 740 Buy 690 1.5% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/19/2014
PTPP 26 1,800 Buy 1,800 1.4% 4/22/2014 Regular Cash 5/7/2014
KLBF 20 1,545 Hold 1,535 1.3% 6/13/2014 BDVD Forecast -
WIKA 28 2,230 Buy 2,850 1.2% 4/29/2014 Regular Cash 5/13/2014
ADRO 11 980 Buy 1,300 1.2% 5/29/2014 BDVD Forecast -
UNVR 320 30,800 Hold 28,404 1.0% 6/30/2014 BDVD Forecast -
AALI 290 28,350 Hold 25,732 1.0% 5/8/2014 BDVD Forecast -
BBCA 75 11,200 Buy 12,200 0.7% 4/30/2014 Final 5/20/2014
Dividend Table
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 3DAILY
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Statistics
INDONESIA & SECTORS +/- (%) YTD(%)
COMMODITIES +/- (%) YTD(%)
INDICES REGION +/- (%) YTD(%)
KURS REGION +/- (%) YTD(%)
JCI WINNERS (%) JCI LOSERS (%) JCI VOLUME (Lot) JCI FREQ (X)JCI VALUE (Rpmn)
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 4DAILY
World Economic Calendar
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
16-Apr-14 US Housing Starts (000's) Mar 970 946 920
US Building Permits (000's) Mar 1,010 990 1,014
US Industrial Production MoM (%) Mar 0.5 0.7 1.2
CH GDP YoY (%) 1Q 7.3 7.4 7.7
EC CPI MoM (%) Mar 1.0 0.9 0.3
EC CPI YoY (%) Mar F 0.5 0.5 0.5
JN Industrial Production MoM (%) Feb F -- -2.3 -2.4
17-Apr-14 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Apr 9.5 16.6 9.0
US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 12-Apr 315 304 302
21-Apr-14 JN Trade Balance (JPY bn) Mar -1,066.0 -- -802.5
JN Exports YoY (%) Mar 7.2 -- 9.8
JN Imports YoY (%) Mar 15.5 -- 9.0
22-Apr-14 US Existing Home Sales (USD mn) Mar 4.55 -- 4.60
US Existing Home Sales MoM Mar -1.1 -- -0.40
EC Consumer Confi dence Apr A -9.3 -- -9.3
23-Apr-14 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Apr P 56.3 -- 55.5
US New Home Sales (000's) Mar 455 -- 440
US New Home Sales MoM (%) Mar 3.4 -- -3.30
CH HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Apr P 48.5 -- 48.0
EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr P 53.0 -- 53.0
GE Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI Apr P 53.7 -- 53.7
24-Apr-14 US Durable Goods Orders (%) Mar 1.0 -- 2.2
GE IFO Business Climate Apr 110.4 -- 110.7
GE IFO Expectations Apr 105.8 -- 106.4
25-Apr-14 US Univ. of Michigan Confi dence Apr F 83.0 -- 82.6
US Markit US Composite PMI Apr P -- -- 55.7
US Markit US Services PMI Apr P -- -- 55.3
JN Natl CPI YoY (%) Mar 1.7 -- 1.5
27-Apr-14 GE Retail Sales MoM (%) Mar -- -- 1.3
GE Retail Sales YoY (%) Mar -- -- 2.0
28-Apr-14 US Pending Home Sales MoM (%) Mar -- -- -0.8
US Pending Home Sales YoY (%) Mar -- -- -10.2
US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Apr -- -- 4.9
29-Apr-14 US Consumer Confi dence Index Apr -- -- 82.3
GE CPI MoM (%) Apr P -- -- 0.30
GE CPI YoY (%) Apr P -- -- 1.0
JN Industrial Production MoM (%) Mar P -- -- -2.3
30-Apr-14 US ADP Employment Change (000's) Apr -- -- 191
US GDP Annualized QoQ (%) 1Q A 1.0 -- 2.6
US Personal Consumption (%) 1Q A -- -- 3.3
US Core PCE QoQ (%) 1Q A -- -- 1.3
US ISM Milwaukee Apr -- -- 56.03
US Chicago Purchasing Manager Apr -- -- 55.9
GE Unemployment Change (000's) Apr -- -- -12000
GE Unemployment Rate (%) Apr -- -- 6.7
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 5DAILY5
RESEARCH TEAM
Sebastian Tobing, CFA
Head of Research & Institutional Sales
Frederick Daniel Tanggela
Equity Analyst
Robby Hafi l
Equity Analyst
(robby.hafi [email protected])
Melvina Wildasari
Equity Analyst
EQUITY CAPITAL MARKET TEAM
JAKARTA
Nathanael Benny Prasetyo
Head of Retail ECM
Ariawan Anwar
Artha Graha, Jakarta
Windra Djulnaily
Pluit, Jakarta
Musji Hartono
Mangga Dua, Jakarta
Ferry Zabur
Kelapa Gading, Jakarta
Very Wijaya
BSD, Jakarta
SUMATRA
Juliana Effendy
Medan, Sumatera Utara
Tantie Rivi Watie
Pekanbaru, Riau
Hari Mulyono Soewandi
Palembang, Sumatra Selatan
Maria Renata
Equity Analyst
Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA
Equity Analyst
Hapiz Sakti Azi
Research Associate
Paula Ruth
Research Associate
EAST INDONESIA
Wiranto Sunyoto
Branch Area Manager
Sonny Muljadi
Surabaya, Jawa Timur
Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti
Denpasar, Bali
Ivan Jaka Perdana
Malang, Jawa Timur
Agus Jatmiko
Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur
Arifi n Pribadi
Ujung Pandang, Sulawesi Selatan
(arifi [email protected])
CENTRAL JAVA
Agus Bambang Suseno
Solo, Jawa Tengah
Andrew Jatmiko
Yogyakarta, Jawa Tengah
Muhammad Ishaq
Semarang, Jawa Tengah
Joshua N.C. Tjeuw
Research Associate
Rovandi
Research Associate
WEST JAVA
Asep Saepudin
Bandung, Jawa Barat
Ariffi anto
Cirebon, Jawa Barat
(ariffi [email protected])
INSTITUTIONAL SALES
Daniel Dwi Seputro
Head of Institutional Equity Sales
Dewi Yusnita
Equity Institutional Sales
Meitawati
Equity Institutional Sales
Fachruly Fiater
Equity Institutional Sales
fachruly.fi [email protected]
Henry Sidarta
Equity Institutional Sales
Raditya Andyono
Equity Institutional Sales
Nancy Pardede
Equity Institutional Sales
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