TCRP Report 161: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation

Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand Workshop

TCRP Report 161: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying

Need for Rural Passenger Transportation

1

Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand Workshop

Welcome A.T. Stoddard, PhD, PE

◦ Principal - LSC Transportation Consultants

Corey Pitts, AICP◦ Transportation Planner - Vanasse Hangen Brustlin,

Inc (VHB)

2


Project B-3 (1995)◦ Methods for forecasting Demand based on data from 39 selected

counties◦ Workbook and spreadsheet (in 1-2-3)◦ Methods applied by states and agencies

Mixed reviews Project B-36

◦ Methods for both Need and Demand◦ Used national databases◦ Considered new travel markets

History

3


Markets have changed

FTA requirement for Public Transportation-Human Service Coordination Plan◦ Plans will be more useful if related to measures of unmet need and

served demand

Internet provides easy access to data not readily available in 1995

Good forecasts provide support for funding from local governments

Why New Methodology?

4

Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 5

Need = number of persons likely to require service

Demand = Use of service at given level of quality and cost

Both are required; need may be more important to build support

It may be more useful to forecast demand related to changes from a base condition

Input from Practitioners


Demographic data – American Community Survey (and PUMS)◦ Only source for disability data

◦ 3-Year data available for areas having a population of 20,000 or more

◦ 5-Year data for areas of all size available at the tract level

Data Sources

6


National Household Travel Survey◦ Valid data only for large geographic areas

Rural National Transit Database (NTD)◦ Service areas not clearly identified◦ Patronage by market not specified◦ Some questions about data quality◦ General public services only

Data Sources

7


http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_rpt_161.pdf

http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_rpt_161.pdf


http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_w58.pdf

http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_w58.pdf


http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/168758.aspx



Understand concepts of need and demand

Explore methodologies for estimating need and demand

Become familiar with workbook

Identify sources of data (collect when appropriate)

Select and apply appropriate methodologies

Understand and apply spreadsheet tool

Goals of the Workshop


Introduction to TCRP Report 161

12


Quick Start Guide

Introduction

Need

Demand

Data Sources

Appendices

Workbook Contents and Organization

13


Worksheets

Hot links to Census data (electronic version)

Spreadsheet for application

Features


Basic data required to estimate need and demand◦ Service characteristics

Service area population Service area (square miles) Annual vehicle-miles Annual vehicle-hours Number of one-way trips served (boardings)

◦ Community Characteristics Area of each county in service area (square miles) College/University enrollment List of social service agencies providing transportation

Quick Start Guide

15


Populations in need

Mobility Gap◦ Number of trips needed

Methodologies: Need

16


General purpose rural – mostly demand response

Program trips – tied to human service programs

Small city fixed route – in small communities, under 50,000 population*

Commuters – rural area to urban center*

* New topic not addressed in project B-3

Methodologies: Demand - Four Markets

17


A – Retrieving Data from the American Community Survey (ACS)

B – Step by Step Instructions for the Rural Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet

C – Suggested Guidelines for Data Collection

Appendices

18

Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand Workshop 19Rural Transit Need and Demand WorkshopRural Transit Need and Demand Workshop

Important Definitions


Need Demand Mobility Gap Trip Program Trip Non-Program Trip Rural Urbanized Area Urban Cluster Urban Center

Some Important Definitions...


Need relates to transportation that is required so that individuals can fulfill life needs and participate in society. Need is independent of the quality of available transportation◦ Need is measured in two ways: people and trips

Demand is the number of trips that will be made using a transportation service offered at a given price and level of service. ◦ Demand is measured in trips

Need and Demand


Mobility Gap - The difference between the number of trips made by persons with access to a personal vehicle and those who lack such access◦ Represents the full unmet trip need relative to those

with relatively unfettered mobility

◦ Measured in trips per day

◦ Serving all of the unmet need is unrealistic. This measure can be used to estimate the proportion of unmet need that is served or to set goals based on proportion served

Need – Trip Based


Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity ◦ Trip time and destination established by agency

Non-program trips – akin to general public transportation but includes trips made using a service limited to specific groups (e.g. persons age 60 or over)◦ Trip time and destination chosen by traveler

Definitions – Trip Types


In this methodology a trip is a one-way trip from point A to point B

For fixed-route and non-program trips, a “trip” is as defined for the National Transit Database i.e. a “boarding”

For program or sponsored trips, a “trip” is a linked trip from original origin to ultimate destination

Definitions - Trip


Rural – a county which has a population density less than 1,000 persons per square mile

Urbanized Area – a central place and adjacent territory with population density ≥ 1,000 persons per square mile and total population of at least 50,000

Definitions (continued)


Urban Cluster – A densely settled area with a population between 2,500 and 50,000◦ Defined by U.S. Census

Urban Center – the central place of an urbanized area◦ As used in the demand forecasting methodology

and Workbook

Definitions (continued)


Transportation NeedPopulation Segments Method

27


Population Based◦ Number of persons residing in households owning

no vehicle Vehicle ownership more important than age

◦ Number of persons residing in households with income below the poverty line

Data for each group, individually, available from the American Community Survey

Need


Vehicle Ownership is more important than age

60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+0123456789

10

0 Vehicles 1 Vehicle 2 or more Vehicles

Age of at Least One Household Member

Ave

rage

Dai

ly R

ural

Hou

seho

ld

Trip

s


1 – year data ◦ areas of 65,000 or more population

3 – year data ◦ areas of 20,000 or more population

5 – year data◦ block group level

ACS Data


Households by Vehicle Availability◦ B08201

Persons residing in households with income below the poverty level ◦ B17001

Table Numbers for ACS Data Retrieval


Need – Population Based

32

Number of Persons Residing in

Households with Income Below the

Poverty Line

Number of Persons Residing in

Households with No Vehicle Available


Population Segments Method

Example

33


Households with No Vehicle

Multiplier

Persons residing in households

with No Vehicle

One person

household 755 1 755

Two person household 238 2 4763 person

household 198 3 594

4 or more person

household 14 4 56

Total 1,074 1,881

Persons Living in Households with No Vehicle Available (B08201)


Persons Living in Households with Income Below the Poverty Line (B17001)


Persons residing in households with income below the poverty levelPersons residing in households owning no automobile

Total Need

Population Segments Method Result

5,827

1,881

7,708


Transportation NeedMobility Gap Method

37


Mobility Gap - The difference between the number of trips made by persons with access to a personal vehicle and those who lack such access◦ Represents the full unmet trip need relative to those

with relatively unfettered mobility

◦ Measured in trips per day

◦ Serving all of the unmet need is unrealistic. This measure can be used to estimate the proportion of unmet need that is served or to set goals based on proportion served

Need – Trip Based

38


In this methodology a trip is a one-way trip from point A to point B

Definitions - Trip

39


0 1 2 or more0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Rural Household Trips by Number of Household Vehicles

Number of Household Vehicles

Daily

Hou

seho

ld T

rips

Mobility Gap

Source: National Household Travel Survey- 2009

40


Mobility Gap by Census Region (NHTS 2009)

Division States

Trips per Rural Household Per Day

Vehicles Available Gap0 1

National 3.2 4.7 1.5

Division 1: New England

Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island

3.3 5.0 1.7

Division 2: Middle New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania 3.5 4.8 1.3

Division 3: East North Central

Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois 2.7 4.1 1.4

Division 4: West North Central

North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota

2.4 4.5 2.1

Division 5: South Atlantic

Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida

3.2 4.5 1.3

Division 6: East South Central

Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi 2.7 4.1 1.4

Division 7: West South Central

Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana 2.9 4.9 2.0

Division 8: MountainIdaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico

5.2 6.0 0.8

Division 9: Pacific Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii 3.8 4.9 1.1

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Mobility Gap

42

Number of Households with

No Vehicle Available(B08201)

Mobility Gap(by Region)


Mobility Gap MethodExample

43


Households with No Vehicle

One person

household 755

Two person household 2383 person

household 198

4 or more person

household 14

Total 1,205

Households with No Vehicle Available (Data for Bedford County, VA)


Data for Bedford County VA: ◦ Households with no vehicle available = 1,205◦ Gap (Division 5, South Atlantic) = 1.3 trips per

day

Daily Mobility Gap ≈ 1,600 Trips Annual Mobility Gap ≈ 480,000 Trips**Assumes 300 days of service

Mobility Gap Calculation


List service providers in your area

Tabulate trips served per day (average day) for each provider◦ Report by market group if possible

Sum trips

Compare to computed Mobility Gap

Report estimated percent of Gap served

Compare to Service Provided


Estimated Trip Need = X trips per day

@ 1.0 trips/mile = X Miles - Existing Daily Vehicle Miles to satisfy 100% of estimated need

TCRP Report 98 provides methodology and software for estimating the number of vehicles to serve any given level of demand◦ http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/153268.aspx

Uses of Mobility Gap Based Need Estimate



General Public Rural Demand

Peer Method

48


Two basic approaches to developing forecasts

◦ Peer analysis

◦ Demand Function

General Public Rural Transit

49


Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity ◦ Trip time and destination established by agency

Non-program trips – akin to general public but includes trips made using a service limited to specific groups (e.g. persons age 60 or over)◦ Trip time and destination chosen by traveler

Definitions

50


Preferred Sources of Data (in decreasing order)◦ Your System

◦ Systems Operating in Similar Rural Settings in Your State

◦ Systems Operating in Similar Rural Settings Elsewhere

General Public (Peer Comparisons)

51


Operating environment◦ Size of service area (population; square miles)◦ Presence of college or university◦ Funding sources

Degree of coordination◦ Social service programs in operation◦ Agency provided client transportation

Selecting Peers

52


Sources of Peer Data Your state transit agency or transportation

agency State transit association

◦ Your state◦ Neighboring states

National Rural Transit Database Call other agencies For larger systems: Integrated National

Transit Database Analysis System

53


Information Needed (for identified peer systems)◦ Population of the area served◦ Size in square miles of the area served◦ Presence of major generator (College, Employer, etc.)◦ Annual vehicle-miles and/or vehicle-hours of service

provided◦ Nature of the operation (e.g. fixed-route, route-deviation,

demand-response)◦ Number of one-way trips served (per month, per year)◦ Degree of coordination with other carriers


54


Who are peers of your system?

How can you get data?



Compute the following values for each system’s data:◦ Passenger Trips per Capita

◦ Passenger Trips per Vehicle Mile (by service type)

◦ Passenger Trips per Vehicle Hour (by service type)

General Public Method (Peer)


Peer MethodExample

57


Input Data from Peer Transit SystemsName of Peer SystemPopulation AreaSize of Area Served (Sq Mi)Annual Vehicle Miles of ServiceAnnual Vehicle Hours of ServiceNumber of 1-Way Trips per YearService TypeDegree of CoordinationTrips / CapitaTrips / Vehicle MileTrips / Vehicle Hour

Peer Data WorksheetPeer A

82,879

1,154

130,376

10,009

57,874

FR

Unk

0.70

0.44

5.78

Peer B

88,661

1,037

200,676

14,390

221,910

FR

Unk

Peer C

87,614

835

316,403

20,252

224,046

FR

Unk

2.50

1.11

15.42

2.56

0.71

11.06


Results Data from Peer Transit SystemsName of Peer System Peer A Peer B Peer C

Trips per CapitaTrips per Vehicle MilesTrips per Vehicle Hours

Compute the Following

Results Data from Peer Transit SystemsMinimum Maximum Average Median

Trips per CapitaTrips per Vehicle MilesTrips per Vehicle Hours

0.70 2.50 2.56

0.44 1.11 0.71

5.78 15.42 11.06

1.92

0.75

10.75

0.70

0.44

5.78

2.56

1.11

15.42

2.50

0.71

11.06


General Public Method (Peer)


Peer Comparison Results


General Public Rural Demand

Non-program trips

62


Demand is a function of Population Groups:◦ Elderly age 60 and over

B01001

◦ Mobility limitation age 18 to 64 S1810

◦ Residents in Households with No Vehicle Available B08201

Non-Program Trip Demand

63


Non-Program Demand Function

64

2.20 Population Age 60+

5.21 Mobility Limited Population Age

18-64

1.52Residents of Households

with No Vehicle


Non-Program TripsExample

65



66



67



68



69

2.20 14,697

5.21 1,537

1.52 1,745


Rural Public Transit Demand

Non-market specific

70


Another method for estimating demand for non-program trips◦ “General Public” Trips

Reported to Rural NTD Method relates expected demand to

estimate of need (mobility gap) and amount of service provided

Can be used to compare change in demand with service expansion/reduction

Rural Public Transportation Demand



72

2.44 Need0.028 Annual Vehicle-Miles0.749

Need = Mobility Gap time 300 Days of Service


Demand - Program Trips

73


Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity

◦ Trip time and destination established by agency

Definition

74


Adult day care Developmental

Services Group Homes Head Start Job Training

Mental Health Senior Nutrition Sheltered Workshop/

Employment Service Organization (ESO)

Types of Human Service Programs

75


What other human service programs operate in your areas?

Do they provide transportation?

How do you work with them?

Group discussion


Program Trip Demand Equals...

77

Number of Program

Participants

Program Events

per Week

The Proportion of Program Participants

who attend the Program on an Average Day

The Proportion of Program Participants

that are Transit Dependent

The Number of Weeks per

Year the Program is

Offered

2 (trips per participant per event)


When preparing a Coordinated Plan obtain from each agency the data required to estimate transportation demand

Suggestion

78


Program TripsExample

79


Small City Fixed Route

Micropolitan Areas

80


A small city, for purposes of this analysis, is one with a population of less than 50,000 located within a county that is not within an urbanized area.

Definition

81


Small City Fixed Route Method

82

5.77 Revenue-hours of Service

1.07 Population(B01003)

7.12 College/ University Enrollment


Sources of Data◦ College/University◦ http://www.collegeboard.org/

Small City Fixed Route DataName of Institution Current Enrollment (s) Projected Planning Year

Enrollment (FTEs)

Name of first university

Name of second university

Name of first college

Etc.

Totals

http://www.collegeboard.org/


Small-city Fixed Route

Example

84



85


Small City Fixed Route Method

86

5.77

1.07 19,257

7.12 7,358

19,857


Commuters to Urban Centers

87


Conditions of application◦Travel from a county that is not part of an

urbanized area◦Travel to a county that is in an urbanized

area◦Commuter trips per day by all modes from

home in county A to workplace in county B in the range of 2,000 – 30,000

Definition

88


Commuter Trip Demand Function

89

Proportion Using Transit for

Commuter Trips from Rural County to

Urban Place

Number of Commuter

s 2


Demand Function (cont.)

90

0.024 0.0000056

Workers Commuting from Rural County to

Urban Place

0.00029

Distance in Miles from

Rural County to Urban

Place

0.015 (if the Urban Place is a

state capital)


Urbanized area Metropolitan Planning Organization

Statewide travel model

American Community Survey (ACS)

Local Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)

Sources of Commuter Trip Data

91


http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/

US Census’ Local Employer-Household Dynamics

http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/


Commuters to Urban Centers

Example



94

Proportion Using Transit for

Commuter Trips from Rural County to

Urban Place

Number of Commuter

s 2


Demand Function (cont.)

95

0.024 0.0000056 2,433

0.00029 220.015 (if the

Urban Place is a state capital)



96

0.031 2,433 2


Using the Excel Spreadsheet


Thank You

Contact Info:A.T. Stoddard

[email protected]

Corey [email protected]

98

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

TCRP Report 161: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation