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TCEH Competitor Analysis July 2015

TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

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Page 1: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

TCEHCompetitor Analysis

July 2015

Page 2: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

Summary(All figures in million unless otherwise stated)

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TCEH Calpine DYNEGY

Balance Sheet Date: 6/30/2015 6/30/2015 3/31/2015

TEV 14,200(1) 7,909 9,912

Total Debt TBD 11,835 7,085

Credit Rating (Moody’s / S&P) NR B1/B+ B2/B+

Total Generation Capacity 15,427 MW ~27,000 MW ~26,000 MW

Total Number of Power Plants 14 88 with 1 under construction 35

Total Number of Units / Generating Capacity

• Nuclear- 2 / 2,300MW• Coal- 12 / 8,017MW• Natural Gas- 26 / 5,110MW

• Simple cycle 23u, 2,459MW.• Combined Cycle 26u, 14,208MW.• Renewable Cycle 15u 729MW.• Under advanced development 2u,

793MW.• Under Construction 1u, 760MW

• Gas 17p, 13,184MW• Oil 3p, 905MW• Coal 14p, 11,420MW

Markets:ERCOTPJMNEISOCAISONYISOMISOSPP

Generation

Retail

Generation

Retail

Generation

Retail

Total Transmission/ Distribution(circuit miles)

Tn/a

Dn/a

Tn/a

Dn/a

Tn/a

Dn/a

Retail/Utility Customers 7.3(1)

Page 3: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

Summary

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Talen NRG AEP

Balance Sheet Date: 12/31/2014 6/30/2015 6/30/2015

TEV 5,570 29,513 9,912

Total Debt 4,107 20,713 7,085

Credit Rating (Moody’s / S&P) BA2/- BA3/BB- B2/B+

Total Generation Capacity 15,320 MW ~52,000 MW ~32,000 MW(1)

Total Number of Power Plants 22 ~150 ~60

Total Number of Units/Generation Capacity

• Gas 14p, 20u,149MW• Coal 7p, 16,176MW• Nuclear 1p, 2u, 2,600MW• Hydro/ Renewable 2p, 2u 169MW

• Natural Gas 29p, 14,896MW• Oil 28p, 5,424MW• Coal 13p, 10,884MW• Nuclear 1p, 1,146MW• Solar 6p, 518MW

Wind 26p, 1381MW

Markets:ERCOTPJMNEISOCAISONYISOMISOSPP

Generation

Retail

Generation

Retail

Generation

Retail

Total Transmission/ Distribution(circuit miles)

T5,468

Dn/a

Tn/a

Dn/a

T~40,000

D~220,000

Retail/Utility Customers 10+ ~3 5.3

(All figures in million unless otherwise stated)

Page 4: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

Calpine Based in Houston, Texas. Largest producer of electricity from natural gas (16,194) & geothermal resources (769). Filed for bankruptcy on December 20th, 2005. Emerged from bankruptcy on January 31st, 2008. It serves in the ERCOT, CAISO, PJM, and ISO-NE power generation markets. Calpine is primarily a wholesale power company.

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Total Enterprise Value(3/31/2015)

Market Capitalization 7,909

Less: Cash and Short Term Investments 796

Total Debt 11,835

Minority Interest 53

Preferred Equity -

Total Enterprise Value 15,040

Credit Ratings (Moody’s/S&P)

B1/B+

Financial Metrics(6/30/2015)

EBITDA 6/30/2015 1,866

Adj. EBITDA (6/30/2015) 60(1)

1 Yr. Forward EBITDA (2016) 1,949

Interest Expense 617

Debt/EBITDA 6.0x

EBITDA/Interest Coverage 3.0x

Note: All data from S&P Capital IQ unless otherwise noted.(1) Source: Calpine 2015 Q2 Earnings Press Release.

Page 5: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

Calpine

Generation capacity of 26,548MW Owns and operates 88 power plants including 1 under construction.

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Retail: Calpine announced it will acquire Champion Energy (peak load of 4,000MW), on July 20 th,2015. Expected to close deal with Champion Energy by the fourth quarter of 2015.

Generation

Other Lines of Business

Page 6: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

Dynegy Based in Houston, Texas. Operates in three divisions; Coal, Illinois Power Holdings (IPH) subsidiary, and Gas. Went bankrupt in November 2011. Emerged from bankruptcy on October 2nd, 2012. It serves in the CAISO, NYISO, IPHISO, NEISO, and PJM power generation markets. DYNEGY sells its services as a wholesale company.

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Credit Ratings (Moody’s/S&P)

B2/B+

Total Enterprise Value(3/31/2015)

Market Capitalization 4,162

Less: Cash and Short Term Investments 1,734

Total Debt 7,085

Minority Interest (1)

Preferred Equity 400

Total Enterprise Value 9,912

Financial Metrics(3/31/2015)

EBITDA 3/31/2015 310

Adj. EBITDA 825-1,025(1)

1 Yr. Forward EBITDA (2016) 1,272

Interest Expense 329

Debt/EBITDA 23.0x

EBITDA/Interest Coverage 0.9x

Note: All data from S&P Capital IQ unless otherwise noted.(1) Source: Dynegy Investor Day Presentation dated June 25, 2015.

Page 7: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

Dynegy

Generation capacity of ~26,000MW 35 power plants

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13%

19%

33%

35%

Fuel Type

Renewables NuclearNatural Gas Coal

Retail: Homefield Energy Dynegy Energy Services

Generation

Other Lines of Business

Page 8: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

Talen Energy Based in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Portfolio of carbon free nuclear power, natural gas generation, and coal-fired generation assets. Third largest independent power producer in the country. Facilities consist of coal-fired, nuclear, and hydro-electric power plants. Serves in the ERCOT, PJM, WECC/MT (Western Electricity Coordinating Council), and NEISO power generation market. Largest plant is Susquehanna Steam Electric Station which produces 2,352 MW of generating capacity and is a nuclear plant. Owns 5,468 Circuit miles of transmission line. July 23, 2015-Talen Energy Corporation announced Monday an agreement to acquire MACH Gen, LLC, for $1.175 billion inclusive of

any assumed debt, subject to customary purchase price adjustments. The transaction is expected to be completed by year-end.

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Credit Ratings (Moody’s/S&P)

Ba2 / -

Total Enterprise Value(12/31/2014)

Market Capitalization 1,960

Less: Cash and Short Term Investments

1,094

Total Debt 4,107

Minority Interest -

Preferred Equity -

Total Enterprise Value 5,570

Financial Metrics(12/31/2014)

EBITDA 776

Adj. EBITDA 4

1 Yr. Forward EBITDA (2016)

928

Interest Expense 219

Debt/EBITDA 4.1x

EBITDA/Interest Coverage

3.5x

Page 9: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

Talen Energy

Generation capacity of 15,320MW 22 power plants, looking to purchase more. LG&E(1) and KU(2) operate a joint electric balancing authority area and own approximately 5,468 circuit

miles of electric transmission lines.

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Generation: Mach GEN July 23, 2015-Talen Energy Corporation announced Monday an agreement to acquire MACH Gen, LLC,

for $1.175 billion inclusive of any assumed debt, subject to customary purchase price adjustments. The transaction is expected to be completed by year-end.

Generation

Other Lines of Business

Page 10: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

NRG NRG Energy is based in Princeton, New Jersey. Operated 95 active fossil fuel and nuclear plants, 14 utility scale solar facilities, and 35 wind farms and multiple distributed

solar facilities. NRG’s reps consist of: Reliant, Green Mountain, Energy Plus, Dominion/Cirro. It operates and produces energy in the NYISO, NEISO, ERCOT, PJM, MISO, SERC and CAISO power generation

markets. NRG Energy files for bankruptcy on May 14 th, 2003. NRG Energy emerges from bankruptcy on December 5 th, 2003.

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Credit Ratings (Moody’s/S&P)Ba3 / BB-

Total Enterprise Value(6/30/2015)

Market Capitalization 6,626

Less: Cash and Short Term Investments

2,146

Total Debt 20,424

Minority Interest 2,671

Preferred Equity 296

Total Enterprise Value 27,871

Financial Metrics(6/30/2015)

EBITDA 3,154

Adj. EBITDA 3,400

1 Yr. Forward EBITDA (2016)

3,089

Interest Expense 1,154

Debt/EBITDA 7.0x

EBITDA/Interest Coverage

2.7x

Page 11: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

NRG

Owns and operates ~150 plants Generation capacity of ~52,000 Megawatts

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Retail: Reliant- Texas, Green Mountain- Texas, Cirro Energy-Texas, Pennywise Power-Texas, NRG Home-

Pennsylvania, New Jersey, MarylandTotal Customers: ~3 million

Generation

Other Lines of Business

Page 12: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

American Electric Power Co. AEP is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio It generates electricity using coal and lignite, natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric and other energy sources. It supplies electricity as wholesale. Their transmission system supplies ~10% of demand in Eastern Interconnection, the transmission system that serves 38

U.S. states & E. Canada, and 11% of demand in ERCOT, covering much of Texas. Operates and produces in PJM, ERCOT, and MISO power generation market.

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Credit Ratings (Moody’s/S&P)Baa1 / BBB

Total Enterprise Value(6/30/2015)

Market Capitalization 26,780

Less: Cash and Short Term Investments

302

Total Debt 20,683

Minority Interest 8

Preferred Equity N/A

Total Enterprise Value 47,169

Financial Metrics(6/30/2015)

EBITDA 5,204

Adj. EBITDA 109(1)

1 Yr. Forward EBITDA (2016)

5,451

Interest Expense (891)

Debt/EBITDA 4.0x

EBITDA/Interest Coverage

5.8x

Page 13: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

American Electric Power Co.

It owns and operates 25 power plants. Generation capacity of 37,600MW

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60%23%

5%

12%

Fuel Type (2014)

CoalNatural GasNuclearHydro pumped/renewables

Retail: AEP Ohio, AEP Texas, AEP Energy, PSO, SWEPCO, Indiana Michigan Power, Kentucky Power,

Appalachian PowerTotal Customers: ~5.3

Generation

Other Lines of Business

Page 14: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

Appendix

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Page 15: TCEH Competitive Analysis July 2015

Power Market Map NEISO- New England ISO NYISO- New York ISO ERCOT- Electric Reliability Council of Texas MISO- Midcontinent ISO SPP- Southwest Power Pool CAISO- California ISO PJM- PJM Interconnection

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