Taskings and Instructions on Atlantic Ocean Cyclonic Activity

8/12/2019 Taskings and Instructions on Atlantic Ocean Cyclonic Activity

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TASKINGS AND INSTRUCTIONS ON ATLANTIC

OCEAN CYCLONIC ACTIVITY

INFORMATION SETThis information is time sensitive. Please go to the NOAA site for update.

From NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration) Data Source

Update your data sourcing by visiting the NOAA site at

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#SANDY

8:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 26

Location: 27.5°N 77.2°W

Moving: N at 7 mph Min pressure: 970 mb

Max sustained: 75 mph



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HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N 77.2W AT

27/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF GREAT ABACOISLAND...OR ABOUT 400

MI...645 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING

N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH

GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC

ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3 /

WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER

AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3 /WTNT23 KNHC FOR

MORE DETAILS.

SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ISN OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W.SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WELL E OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-31N

BETWEEN 65W-72W. ONE OF THE OUTER BANDS ALSO

EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO THE CARIBBEAN WHEREWIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LINGERS

WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 22N65W TO

14N76W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.HISPANIOLA IS EXPERIENCING SUSTAINED RAINFALL OVER

SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING

FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF

HIGH TERRAIN.

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N43W TO 10N43W MOVING W

NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE

AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTALRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM

EARLIER TODAY ALSO INDICATES THAT CYCLONIC

SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELYSCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.



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TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N50W TO 11N49W MOVINGWEST AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME

BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT THE WAVE TO

THE EAST IS WITHIN. A 1536 UTC OSCAT PASS CONFIRMED ALOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO

THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUINEA AT 11N15W TO 9N21W.THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W

12N41W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVES

FROM 7N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 8N59W.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N

BETWEEN 23W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATECONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS. SEE

ABOVE. S OF 31N...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS INEFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF

DEERFIELD BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE...AS WELL AS

OVER THE GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRALATLANTIC FROM 31N45W TO 30N50W TO 30N57W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N

BETWEEN 33W-53W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E

ATLANTIC AT 24N26W.



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MORE SPECIFIC PRODUCTS

About this product:

Note: The time of the tropical cyclone's center location at the bottom

of the graphic will be 3 hours earlier than the time of the current

advisory. The forecast cycle for each advisory begins 3 hours prior

to the issuance of the advisory products.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average)

surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt...74 mph (hurricaneforce). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official

National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii

forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecastvariables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative



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probabilities that wind speeds of at least 74 mph will occur during

cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. Thecumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend

through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals

(i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic isproduced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and

animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of

experiencing winds of at least 74 mph at any location, the 120-h

graphics are recommended.

These probabilities will be updated by the NHC with each advisory

package for all active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North

Pacific basins. While separate graphics are focused on each individual

tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting from more than one activetropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic.

Additionally, these probability products are available on the

National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast

Database (NDFD) graphical tropical webpage. The previously provided strike probability product (discontinued after

2005) conveyed the chances of a "close" approach of the center of the

cyclone. However, these new probability products are about the weather.That is, these cumulative wind speed probabilities provide the chances

that wind speeds of at least 74 mph will occur at individual locations.

The cumulative probabilities can answer the question, "What are the

chances that sustained winds of tropical storm or hurricane force will

occur at any specific location?" This can also help one answer the

question, "Do I need to take certain actions to prepare?" A companion

product, the wind speed probability text product, will also be issued and

updated with each advisory package. That product is recommended tomore easily assess when winds of each threshold are most likely to start

at any specific location, helping to answer the question, "How long do Ihave to prepare?" Overall, these probabilities provide users withinformation that can enhance their ability to make preparedness

decisions specific to their own situations.

It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities that

might seem relatively small at their location might still be quite



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significant, since they indicate that there is a chance that a damaging or

even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protectlives and property.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120Hours

About this product:

Note: The time of the tropical cyclone's center location at the bottom

of the graphic will be 3 hours earlier than the time of the current

advisory. The forecast cycle for each advisory begins 3 hours prior

to the issuance of the advisory products.



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These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average)

surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt...39 mph (tropical stormforce). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official

National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii

forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecastvariables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative

probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during

cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The

cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend

through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals

(i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is

produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and

animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk ofexperiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-hgraphics are recommended.

These probabilities will be updated by the NHC with each advisory

package for all active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern NorthPacific basins. While separate graphics are focused on each individual

tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting from more than one active

tropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic.

Additionally, these probability products are available on the

National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast

Database (NDFD) graphical tropical webpage. The previously provided strike probability product (discontinued after

2005) conveyed the chances of a "close" approach of the center of the

cyclone. However, these new probability products are about the weather.

That is, these cumulative wind speed probabilities provide the chances

that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur at individual locations.The cumulative probabilities can answer the question, "What are the

chances that sustained winds of tropical storm or hurricane force willoccur at any specific location?" This can also help one answer thequestion, "Do I need to take certain actions to prepare?" A companion

product, the wind speed probability text product, will also be issued and

updated with each advisory package. That product is recommended to

more easily assess when winds of each threshold are most likely to start



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at any specific location, helping to answer the question, "How long do I

have to prepare?" Overall, these probabilities provide users withinformation that can enhance their ability to make preparedness

decisions specific to their own situations.

It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities thatmight seem relatively small at their location might still be quite

significant, since they indicate that there is a chance that a damaging or

even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect

lives and property.

RAINFALL

DAY 1: 10/26/2012



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DAY 2: 10/27/2012



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DAY 3: 10/28/2012



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RAINFALL POTENTIAL

DAY 1-3: 10/26/2012



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DAY 2-3: 10/27/2012



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DAY 3-3: 10/28/2012



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SANDY PROGRESS

NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification

NHC receives frequent inquiries on the accuracy and skill of its forecasts

and of the computer models available to it. To help answer these

questions, these verification web pages were established in March 2005.The development of this resource will be completed in stages; ultimately

all available records dating back to the earliest NHC forecasts in 1954

will be included. A digital database of NHC official track forecast errorshas been constructed for the period 1970 to the present, and it is this

period that is presented initially here. A digital database of intensity

errors has been constructed dating back to 1990. These pages will be

updated as extensions to the database are completed. Questions on NHC

forecast verifications may be directed [email protected].

For more information, visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/

TTTT AAAA SSSS KKKK IIII NNNN GGGG SSSSBefore you move onto these taskings, you need to have thoroughly and

carefully read the foregoing. Additional information you need are

source-indicated along the way as links. Please visit them to update theinformation set with which you and your pair will work. It now becomes



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your responsibility to have the most updated information on storm

movements

TASKINGS

1. Take note that the movement of Sandy is due north/northwest.Curving into the New York/New Jersey area but covering a lot of

territory. Have a closer look below at the 5-day forecast from the StormCenter.

Unless there is something to change speed and direction for Sandy’s

trajectory, its eye will be due east from the Chesapeake Bay, and

heading toward the New York/New Jersey area. By the time it reachesthis region, it will affect areas within the white semicircle, reaching into

the Great Lakes area and parts of Canada and most of New England.



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Now the question becomes: what’s to the east of Sandy’s trajectory,

such that it will keep it on its course? Well, let’s take a look at the imagebelow and extrapolate.

The storm mass close to the CONUS (continental US) is a low pressure

center (running counterclockwise). There is another low pressure centernortheast of Sandy and due east of its path north. This presents a

problem: there is no room for Sandy to have a chance to move east,

instead of west and into land. Tropical

Depression Tony is in its way (which by

now may be turning into a tropical

storm). So we need to help both do whatis best for all human beings along the

East Coast.Tasking 1: We need to handshake with

BOTH simultaneously. Once

connectivity is established, we need tonudge their strange attractors (edges of an atmospheric convection) see

image to the right. We need to get the edges to come together and duff



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(embroil each other in a way that the two become one, but the direction

is to the east, and not to the north,northwest, or west). See image

below.

Another way of looking at this

linearly is to see them embroil

themselves by seeing them from twoangles: the y-z plane, and the x-z

plane.

Both of these planes give us a view

of what we need to make happen

with the two depressions as we make them come together. Looked atfrom the y-z plane, we get this:

And looked at from the x-z plane, we see this:



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This is what we need to make them do – become one by nonlinear

embroiling, such that the edges of both storms carry their kineticenergies in the direction of the one with less energy (Tony).

This is, then, your main task.Tasking 2: Once you and your pair acquire knowingness that the strange

attractors are performing precisely what we wish to happen (the dynamicvisual interpretation you give to the above process is KEY to making

this happen!), you-pair can then turn to the making of the x-y plane look

like this:

such that the combining of kinetic energies move both of them to theeast, drawing their eyes in the say in which the figure above indicates.

This needs to be accompanied by visualizations at the western (left edge

on this picture) of rain and wind speed dampening.

CONCLUSION

The accomplishments of these two taskings will result in the diminution

of speed and direction to the north-northwest on the part of Sandy and

the movement of Tony to the east in attraction to the more energetic ofthe two storms (Sandy). The latter, when the gnosive procedure used

here succeeds, will feed back to you that there is Sandy movement to the

east/northeast and an eventual merging with Tony but heading out to the

North Atlantic instead of toward the west.



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PROCOTOLS

The protocols to be used here are identical to those used in the Beta test.

Pairs focus on the process described above, developing both an emotive-

energetic frame that is harmonically resonated to a waveguide (S.D.S.),who will collocate the energetics of the vectored-intentions to induce the

storms to perform the sequences described above.

Any further questions, send them to Aegis contact at the following

email: [email protected].

The time frame for everything begins at 0200 EDT Saturday 10/27/2012.

Action on the focus must be pair-simultaneous, as before, and done

twice a day at the same time for the next four days (10-27-2012 to 11-01-2012 ending on this day at 0159:59 AM).

Documents

Taskings and Instructions on Atlantic Ocean Cyclonic Activity