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Target setting for the SEE 2020 Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategystrategy
Bled, SloveniaJuly 3rd 2012
1
Agenda• Introduction and objectives
• Target setting for Integrated Growth
• Target setting for Smart Growth
• Target setting for Sustainable Growth
• Target setting for Inclusive Growth
• Target setting for Governance for Growth
2
Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision
SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE Ministerial Conference:
i. Integrated growth to deepen regional trade and investment linkages;
ii. Smart growth – innovation and competition based on value-added rather than labour costs
iii. Sustainable growth – private sector competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener and energy-efficient development;
iv. Inclusive growth – skills development, employment creation & labour market participation by all
v. Governance for growth – improve capacity of public administrations to strengthen the rule of law and reduce corruption
A set of headline targets to be adopted at the next Ministerial
3
The proposed process
Nov 2011
Apr2012
Jun2012
Sep2012
Nov2012
Vision adopted
First draft targetsTargets discussed
Second draft targets
Written procedure & third draft
SEE Min
SEE IC
SEE IC
Final draft targets
Targets adopted
SEE Min
4
Task Force Meeting
2nd Task Force Meeting
i. Integrated growth
a. Total value of trade in goods
b. Total value of trade in goods as % of GDP
c. Foreign direct investment net inflows
d. Foreign direct investment as % of GDP
e. Annual GDP growth
f. Standards and technical regulations
ii. Smart growth
a. Business expenditure on R&D
b. Gross expenditure on R&D
c. Tertiary education attainment
d. GDP per person employed
e. High technology exports
f. Internet users
g. Software Piracy Rates
h. Participation in lifelong learning
iii. Sustainable growth
a. CO2 emissions
b. Renewable energy
c. Energy efficiency
d. Fossil fuel consumption
e. Entrepreneurship
f. Trade balance in goods as % of GDP
iv. Inclusive growth
a. Employment
b. Female employment
c. Gender ratio of income
d. Poverty headcount / People at risk of poverty
e. Early leavers from school
f. Formal training
g. Youth employment
h. Gini co-efficientv. Governance for growth
a. Unofficial payments are frequent
b. Government debt as % of GDP
c. Rule of law
d. Regulatory quality
An initial set of target indicators
5
Agenda
• Introduction and objectives
• Target setting for Integrated Growth
• Target setting for Smart Growth
• Target setting for Sustainable Growth
• Target setting for Inclusive Growth
• Target setting for Governance for Growth
6
Dimensions for Integrated Growth
7
a. Total value of trade in goods
b. Total value of trade in goods as % of GDP
c. Foreign direct investment net inflows
d. Foreign direct investment as % of GDP
e. Annual GDP growth
f. Standards and technical regulations
Integrated Growth: Total value of trade in goods
Main Indicator?
8
Source: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database
9
Integrated Growth: Regional trade openness in good
Suggested indicator
Integrated Growth: Foreign direct investment
10Source: World Bank
Integrated Growth: foreign direct investment
11Source: World Bank
Suggested indicator
GDP Growth (Annual)
12Source: World Bank
Suggested indicator
Integrated Growth: Standards and technical regulations
13
Source: SME Policy Index 2012, only includes Western Balkans
Suggested indicator
Full transposition of EU standards and laws
No legislation or standards transposed.
Agenda
• Introduction and objectives
• Target setting for Integrated Growth
• Target setting for Smart Growth
• Target setting for Sustainable Growth
• Target setting for Inclusive Growth
• Target setting for Governance for Growth
14
a.Business expenditure on R&D
b.Gross expenditure on R&D
c.Tertiary education attainment
d.GDP per person employed
e.High technology exports
f. Internet users
g.Software Piracy Rates
h.Participation in lifelong learning
Dimensions for Smart Growth
15
Smart Growth: Business expenditure on R&DMain
Indicator?
16
Source: UNESCO data for SEE, Eurostat data for the EU and Erawatch data for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Smart Growth: Gross expenditure on R&D
17
Source: UNESCO data for SEE, Eurostat data for the EU
EU2020 target
Smart Growth: Tertiary education attainment
18
Source: Eurostat
EU2020 target
Smart Growth: GDP per person employed
19Source: World Bank
?
Smart Growth: High technology as % of manufactured exports
20Source: World Bank
Smart Growth: Internet usage
21Source: World Bank
Smart Growth: Estimated software piracy rates
22
Source: Eighth Annual Business Software Alliance Global Software Piracy Study
Smart Growth: Lifelong learning
23Source: Eurostat
Suggested indicator
Agenda
• Introduction and objectives
• Target setting for Integrated Growth
• Target setting for Smart Growth
• Target setting for Sustainable Growth
• Target setting for Inclusive Growth
• Target setting for Governance for Growth
24
a.CO2 emissions
b.Renewable energy
c.Energy efficiency
d.Fossil fuel consumption
e.Entrepreneurship
f. Trade balance in goods as % of GDP
Dimensions for Sustainable Growth
25
Sustainable Growth: CO2 emissions
26Source: World Bank
EU2020 target
Sustainable growth: Share of renewable energy
27Source: Eurostat
EU2020 target
Sustainable Growth: Energy efficiency
28
Source: World Bank
EU2020 target
Sustainable Growth: Fossil fuel consumption
29Source: World Bank
Sustainable Growth: Entrepreneurship
Note: The EU average is based on data from France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Poland and Sweden only
Main Indicator?
30
Source: EBRD Life in Transition Survey
Sustainable Growth: External balance on goods and services (% of GDP)
31Source: World Bank
Agenda
• Introduction and objectives
• Target setting for Integrated Growth
• Target setting for Smart Growth
• Target setting for Sustainable Growth
• Target setting for Inclusive Growth
• Target setting for Governance for Growth
32
Dimensions for Inclusive Growth
33
Inclusive Growth: Employment
EU2020 target: an increase of employment in the category 20-64 year olds 70.3% to 75% in 2020Main
Indicator?
34Source: World Bank
Inclusive Growth: Female employment
35Source: World Bank
Suggested indicator
Inclusive Growth: Gender ratio of income
Note: The data for EU-27 and SEE show exactly the same ratio: 61.9% 36
Inclusive Growth: Poverty headcount
EU2020 foresees a reduction by 20 million, or 17% of the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion
37Source: World Bank
Inclusive Growth: Early leavers from school
38
EU2020 target
Inclusive Growth: Formal Training
39Source: World Bank
Inclusive Growth: Youth Employment
40Source: World Bank
Suggested indicator
Inclusive growth: Gini co-efficient
41
Source: World BankNotes: The Gini Index plots the cumulative percentages of total income received against the cumulative number of recipients, starting with the poorest individual or household.
Suggested indicator
Agenda
• Introduction and objectives
• Target setting for Integrated Growth
• Target setting for Smart Growth
• Target setting for Sustainable Growth
• Target setting for Inclusive Growth
• Target setting for Governance for Growth
42
a. Percentage of firms saying that unofficial payments are frequent
b. Government debt as % of GDP
c. Rule of law
d. Regulatory quality
Dimensions for Governance for Growth
43
Governance for Growth: Percentage of firms saying that unofficial payments are frequent
Main Indicator?
44
Source: World Bank and the EBRD, Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey
Governance for Growth: Government debt as % of GDP
45
Source: World Bank, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, EBRD
Governance for Growth: Rule of law
46
Source: World Bank
Governance for Growth: Regulatory quality
47
Source: World Bank
Suggestions/ Discussion• Indicators on:
Vocational Education and TrainingBusiness demography dataNet job creation rate Share of the informal economyMore detailed indicators on povertyGlobal Competitiveness Index scoresCorruption perception index scores
48
Comments
Are these indicators available?
Are there data for SEE economies?
Do they capture something that is not yet captured by the existing indicators?
Are they relevant for the SEE 2020 strategy?
Do they capture a priority of the SEE 2020 strategy?
Milan KonopekRCI Project Manager / Policy Analyst
OECD Investment Compact for South East EuropePrivate Sector Development Division
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)[email protected]
www.investmentcompact.org
Thank you for your Thank you for your attentionattention
49
ANNEX
50