16
Sundaram Finance Ltd. CMP : INR 674 Rating : Buy Target : INR 916 We had discussions with management of Sundaram Finance Ltd. regarding the business model of the company, business environment and growth prospects. Following are excerpts of our understanding of the company. Rebound in disbursement growth SFL's growth, in FY09, was severely hit due to economic crisis, this lead to fall in disbursement. In FY10, SFL achieved 29% growth in its disbursements for FY10 against decline of 11% in FY09. This growth was backed by rebound in Indian auto industry during FY10. Growth in CV sales is expected to remain strong in FY11 on account of heightened manufacturing activity, easy availability of finance together with road development programmes. Going forward, we expect disbursements to grow by 20% in FY11E. Robust NIM As per our calculation, SFL's NIM for FY10 stood at 5.7% as against level of 5.3% for FY09. NIM improved due to greater proportion of high yielding retail loans together with high growth of 29% in disbursements in FY10 and low cost funding mix (proportion of bank borrowings increased to 35% in FY10 from 30% in FY09), leading to widening of spread between yields and cost in favor of the company. We expect NIMs to improve from 5.3% to 6.1% in FY11E. NPA : One of the lowest SFL's consistent focus on asset quality, rigorous credit appraisal system and fine tuned collection skills has led to the best asset quality in the industry, in FY10 Gross NPA & Net NPA stood at 1.26% & 0.45% respectively. SFL has made adequate provisions for NPAs in FY10 and PCR (Provision Coverage Ratio) stood at 64.3% as against 54.3% for FY09. SFL has best asset quality among its peers. SFL had CAR of 16.9% for FY10, well above the statutory requirement. We expect NPA levels to remain at the same level of FY10 i.e, Gross NPA at 1.3% and Net NPA at 0.5% for FY11E. Subsidiaries : Significant value SFL had 10 subsidiaries and 2 JVs as on March 2010. Important ones are: Sundaram BNP Paribas Home Finance Limited (50.10%), Royal Sundaram Alliance Insurance Company Ltd (49.9%) and Sundaram BNP Paribas Asset Management Company Limited (100%, initially 50.1%). In July 2010 SFL bought BNP's share in AMC business and made it 100% wholly owned subsidiary. Valuation SFL has shown impressive performance in FY10 and Q1FY11, though partly this has been due to low base effect, we expect SFL to continue the growth momentum for FY11E on back of increasing financing demand as the economy improves. Our Target Price derives 28% of its value from subsidiaries and JVs. Based on our SOTP method, Our Fair Value for SFL comes at INR 916 per share. Adjusting for fair value of subsidiaries, SFL is trading at its 1.6 x FY11E ABV. Its peers MMFSL and STFL are trading at 3.3x and 3.7x its FY11E ABV respectively. We believe such steep discount in core business is not warranted. October 21, 2010 For Private Circulation Only FINQUEST research also available on BLOOMBERG FSPL <GO> and REUTERS. Shareholding % 4Q 1Q 2Q Promoters 41.0 41.0 41.0 MF/Banks/Indian FIs 11.0 11.0 12.0 FII/ NRIs/ OCBs 2.0 2.0 2.0 Indian Public 46.0 46.0 45.0 KEY DATA Market Cap (INR bn) 37.4 Market Cap (USD mn) 850.9 52 WK High / Low 690 / 274 Avg Daily Volume (BSE) 8606 Face Value (INR) 10 BSE Sensex 19872 Nifty 5982 BSE Code 590071 NSE Code SUNDARMFIN Reuters Code SNFN.BO Bloomberg Code SUF IN Performance Chart Visit Note Financials (INR mn) F09 F10 F11E NII 4,373 5,481 6,931 PAT 1,507 2,267 2,814 EPS per sh 27 41 51 ABV per sh 199 230 265 Amandeep Goraya Analyst Tel. : 4000 2669 [email protected] Chintan Mewar Vice President - Research Tel. : 4000 2665 [email protected] PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 3 M 6 M 12 M Absolute 11.8 14.4 16.0 Relative (30.3) (58.8) (108.8)

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Page 1: Target : INR 916 KEY DATA Sundaram Finance Ltd.finquestgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Sundaram-VN...2010/10/21  · 2. CV Finance SFL provides finance for commercial vehicles

Sundaram Finance Ltd.

CMP : INR 674Rating : BuyTarget : INR 916

We had discussions with management of Sundaram Finance Ltd. regarding the business model

of the company, business environment and growth prospects. Following are excerpts of our

understanding of the company.

Rebound in disbursement growth

SFL's growth, in FY09, was severely hit due to economic crisis, this lead to fall in disbursement.

In FY10, SFL achieved 29% growth in its disbursements for FY10 against decline of 11% in

FY09. This growth was backed by rebound in Indian auto industry during FY10. Growth in CV

sales is expected to remain strong in FY11 on account of heightened manufacturing activity,

easy availability of finance together with road development programmes. Going forward, we

expect disbursements to grow by 20% in FY11E.

Robust NIM

As per our calculation, SFL's NIM for FY10 stood at 5.7% as against level of 5.3% for FY09.

NIM improved due to greater proportion of high yielding retail loans together with high growth

of 29% in disbursements in FY10 and low cost funding mix (proportion of bank borrowings

increased to 35% in FY10 from 30% in FY09), leading to widening of spread between yields

and cost in favor of the company. We expect NIMs to improve from 5.3% to 6.1% in FY11E.

NPA : One of the lowest

SFL's consistent focus on asset quality, rigorous credit appraisal system and fine tuned collection

skills has led to the best asset quality in the industry, in FY10 Gross NPA & Net NPA stood at

1.26% & 0.45% respectively. SFL has made adequate provisions for NPAs in FY10 and PCR

(Provision Coverage Ratio) stood at 64.3% as against 54.3% for FY09. SFL has best asset quality

among its peers. SFL had CAR of 16.9% for FY10, well above the statutory requirement. We

expect NPA levels to remain at the same level of FY10 i.e, Gross NPA at 1.3% and Net NPA at

0.5% for FY11E.

Subsidiaries : Significant value

SFL had 10 subsidiaries and 2 JVs as on March 2010. Important ones are: Sundaram BNP

Paribas Home Finance Limited (50.10%), Royal Sundaram Alliance Insurance Company Ltd

(49.9%) and Sundaram BNP Paribas Asset Management Company Limited (100%, initially

50.1%). In July 2010 SFL bought BNP's share in AMC business and made it 100% wholly

owned subsidiary.

Valuation

SFL has shown impressive performance in FY10 and Q1FY11, though partly this has been due

to low base effect, we expect SFL to continue the growth momentum for FY11E on back of

increasing financing demand as the economy improves. Our Target Price derives 28% of its

value from subsidiaries and JVs. Based on our SOTP method, Our Fair Value for SFL comes at

INR 916 per share. Adjusting for fair value of subsidiaries, SFL is trading at its 1.6 x FY11E ABV.

Its peers MMFSL and STFL are trading at 3.3x and 3.7x its FY11E ABV respectively. We believe

such steep discount in core business is not warranted.

October 21, 2010

For Private Circulation OnlyFINQUEST research also available on BLOOMBERG FSPL <GO> and REUTERS.

Shareholding % 4Q 1Q 2Q

Promoters 41.0 41.0 41.0

MF/Banks/Indian FIs 11.0 11.0 12.0

FII/ NRIs/ OCBs 2.0 2.0 2.0

Indian Public 46.0 46.0 45.0

KEY DATA

Market Cap (INR bn) 37.4

Market Cap (USD mn) 850.9

52 WK High / Low 690 / 274

Avg Daily Volume (BSE) 8606

Face Value (INR) 10

BSE Sensex 19872

Nifty 5982

BSE Code 590071

NSE Code SUNDARMFIN

Reuters Code SNFN.BO

Bloomberg Code SUF IN

Performance Chart

Visit Note

Financials (INR mn) F09 F10 F11E

NII 4,373 5,481 6,931

PAT 1,507 2,267 2,814

EPS per sh 27 41 51

ABV per sh 199 230 265

Amandeep GorayaAnalystTel. : 4000 [email protected]

Chintan MewarVice President - ResearchTel. : 4000 [email protected]

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)

3 M 6 M 12 M

Absolute 11.8 14.4 16.0

Relative (30.3) (58.8) (108.8)

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 2

Rebound in disbursement growth

Sundaram Finance Ltd. (SFL) achieved 29% growth in its disbursements for FY10 against decline of

11% in FY09. This growth was backed by rebound in Indian auto industry during FY10 supported by

the government stimulus to support economic growth.

During FY10, SFL achieved 51% growth, in unit terms, in the M&H commercial vehicle segment and

25% growth, in unit terms, in the car finance segment. The growth in CV sales is expected to remain

strong in FY11 on account of heightened manufacturing activity, buoyant consumption, evolving

distribution and service networks, easy availability of finance and road development programmes.

SFL clocked impressive 69% YoY growth in its disbursements to INR 17.6 bn in Q1FY11. Albeit, this

growth has come on much lower base in Q1FY09. We expect the company to maintain 20% growth

in FY11.

Disbursements growth

Source: Company, FQ Research

Receivables under management

Gross receivables under management where at INR 102.2 bn registering growth of 11% for FY10.

RUM

Source: Company, FQ Research

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 3

SFL has a strong presence in commercial vehicle and car financing segments with a market share of

10% in Medium and Heavy CV and 4% in light weight CV and 3.5% in car financing. The company

closely follows the trends in the auto sector as around 60% of its loan book constitutes CV loans,

another 30% car loans and remaining comprises of equipment finance, tyre finance and loans for

fleet cards.

Loan segment-wise break-up (March 2010)

Source: Company, FQ Research

Industry

Auto sales were severely hit during FY09 due to economic crisis. Passenger vehicle sales plunged

down to almost 0% and CV sales registered de-growth of 22% for FY09. With improving economic

conditions, sales in Passenger vehicle & CV sales moved up to 26% & 38% respectively for FY10.

This was backed by the stimulus programme announced by the government to support economic

growth. Going forward, for FY11 auto industry is expected to keep up growth pace on back of increased

infrastructure activities and improved monsoon. There by paving growth path for auto financing

industry.

Passenger vehicle sales trend

Source: SIAM, FQ Research

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 4

CV sales trend

Source: SIAM, FQ Research

CV sales have been historically correlated to GDP growth of the country. With expected growth in

GDP, CV sales are expected to keep up with the growth momentum.

GDP and CV Sales co-relation

Source: Bloomberg, FQ Research

Below is segment wise growth forecast for Indian auto industry for FY11:

Growth forecasts

Passenger cars 12-13%

Utility vehicles 13-14%

CV (goods) 19-20%

CV (Buses) 4-5%

2 wheeler 9-10%

3 wheelers (goods) 5-6%

3 wheelers (passenger) 8-9%

Source: SIAM

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 5

SFL is in auto financing business. It provides loans for car, CV, equipment and tyre finance. Finance

is given on Hire purchase, lease and Hypothecation basis depending on the customer need. At present

majority of SFL advances are hypothecated loans. Below is a brief detail on SFL products:

1. Car Finance

SFL is into car financing. It provides finance for both new & used cars. Its major portion is for new

car finance and used car is a negligible portion of total car financing portfolio. Various financing

schemes are provided, to attract customers with different financing needs. For used cars, maximum

finance period is for 36 months and this also depends on the model and age of the car being

financed. The financing period including the age of the car is generally maintained at a maximum

of 5 years. Maximum amount of finance is 60% of the assessed value.

2. CV Finance

SFL provides finance for commercial vehicles. Finance is given for both new & used commercial

vehicles. In case of new CV, maximum finance is 75% of the on road cost of the vehicle (excluding

accessories and insurance) and maximum tenure is 48 months. On other hand for used CV,

finance is given for vehicles that are maximum upto 5 years old and maximum tenure of finance

is 36 months. Finance quantum is normally upto 60% of the value as assessed by the lender.

3. Equipment finance

SFL provides finance for acquiring equipment either under hire purchase or lease finance routes.

The mode of finance to be employed for funding the requirement is left to the borrower. SFL

offers lease finance option only to corporates. Some of the distinguishing features between lease

and hire purchase are given as follows :

Lease finance Hire purchase

Ownership Lender Lender

Book depreciation claim Borrower Borrower

IT depreciation claim Lender Borrower

Expenditure claim Borrower can charge the entire Finance charges can only be

lease rental to expenses. charged by borrower as expenses.

Transfer of ownership at the Borrower has to identify a third Ownership transfers to borrower

end of the contract period. party, to whom the asset is automatically at the end of the

sold by lender. contract.

Tax implications Lease tax is payable on lease Sales tax is payable wherever there

rentals in some states. is no second sale exemption.

SFL also provides finance for Off-the-road vehicles such as excavators, loaders, dumpers, tippers,

compacters, compressors, etc.

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 6

4. Tyre Finance

SFL offers tyre finance scheme to Fleet operators (big or small / retail) and Corporates who own

light/medium/heavy commercial vehicles including buses. A credit limit is fixed based on fleet

size, activity level, and the security offered and finance can be drawn as and when requirement

to purchase tyres arises, within the fixed credit limit.

Terms & conditions for tyre finance are

Finance upto 80% of the invoice value

Flexibility of finance for any brand of tyres

Any number of tyres with a minimum of 2 tyres for HCV's and 4 tyres for LCV's.

Repayment in 4 convenient EMIs.

5. Fleet card

To assist its customers to manage fleets fuel needs, SFL has launched fleet card programme -

XTRAPOWER with IndianOil & SmartFleet with Bharat Petroleum. Fleet Card is an effective fuel

management tool that provides customers an efficient way of purchasing auto fuels like diesel,

petrol and lubricants. The Fleet Card is an affordable fuel finance product that offers low cost

working capital to monitor and control fleet expenses. It offers a comprehensive customer credit

limit, within which one can preset daily usage limits for each vehicle.

Robust NIM

As per our calculation, NIM for FY10 stood at 5.7% as against level of 5.3% for FY09. NIM improved

on back of 9% growth in interest income as against de-growth of 1.8% in interest expended. For FY10

the 29% growth in disbursements supported the growth in interest income and as major portion of

lending is to retail clients, these are high yielding as compared to other loans, added to interest

income. On interest expended side, the company has increased its dependence on bank borrowings

i.e. form 30% in FY09 it moved to 35% for FY10, which are cheaper than other borrowings, this has

helped to widen the spread between lending yields and borrowing cost favorably for the company.

Margin Analysis

FY09 FY10 FY11Yield Cost of NIM Yield Cost of NIM Yield on Cost NIM

on assets funds on assets funds assets of funds

SFL 14.2 9.5 4.5 13.2 7.9 5.3 13.5 8.0 6.1

STF 17.2 11.2 8.0 17.4 11.6 8.7 18.4 12.2 9.7

MMF 19.4 8.7 12.1 19.1 7.5 12.8 19.9 8.3 13.0

Source: Company, FQ Research

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 7

Funding Mix - 2010 Funding Mix - 2009

Source: Company, FQ Research Source: Company, FQ Research

NPA : One of the lowest

SFL's consistent focus on asset quality, rigorous credit appraisal system and fine tuned collection

skills has led to the best asset quality in the industry. For FY10 Gross NPA & Net NPA stood at 1.3%

& 0.5% respectively. SFL has made adequate provisions for NPAs in FY10 and PCR (Provision Coverage

Ratio) stood at 64.3% as against 54.3% for FY09.

Asset Quality

FY09 FY10 FY11GNPA NNPA PCR GNPA NNPA PCR GNPA NNPA PCR

SFL 1.6 0.8 54.9 1.3 0.5 64.3 1.3 0.5 63.8

STF 2.1 0.8 61.9 2.8 0.7 75.0 2.7 0.7 74.1

MMF 8.7 2.6 71.9 6.4 0.9 86.4 7.0 1.4 81.6

Source: Company, FQ Research

To strengthen the balance sheet, the company has provided additional provision of 0.4% on standard

assets, amounting to INR 316.2 mn for FY10. SFL had CAR of 16.93% for FY10, well above the

statutory requirement. Out of this Tier 1 is more than 14%, this gives sufficient headroom to the

company to grow its AUM without equity dilution.

Securitization

SFL has been securitizing its loan book to avail the benefits of securitization. The company has

historically securitized not more than 10% of its loan book and we expect that 10% of the loan book

will be securitized in FY11E.

Securitisation enables the Company to access low cost funds since it funds, STOs, which are

classified as Priority Sector by RBI.

At the same time, securitisation also allows the Company to substantially mitigate the interest

rate risk since rates are fixed. This enables the Company to immunise business from adverse

changes in interest rates.

Asset-liability maturities are matched door-to-door through securitisation.

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 8

Subsidiaries : Significant value

Following are the subsidiaries which according to us forms material part for valuation of SFL.

Sundaram BNP Paribas Asset Management Company Limited (100%, initially 50.1%)

Sundaram BNP Paribas Asset Management is one of the largest and well established fund houses

in the country. Fund basket consists of 12 well researched and class leading equity funds and 4

products in the fixed income category. The fund house was sponsored by two giants of the

financial services industry - SFL Group and BNP Paribas Asset Management. In October 012010,

SFL Ltd. has acquired all the shares held by BNP Paribas Asset Management (France) representing

49.9% in the equity share capital of each of the company's subsidiaries viz Sundaram BNP

Paribas Asset Management Company Ltd. and Sundaram BNP Paribas Trustee Company Ltd. for

a total consideration of INR 1.4 bn (~2.2% to AUM, considering 49.9% share). BNP Paribas had

to exit the JV as SEBI prohibits a single entity from holding stakes in more than one domestic asset

management companies. At present, BNP also has 100% holding in Fortis Mutual fund. Sundaram

Mutual Fund (now 100% owned) had total AUM (as on Sept. 2010) of INR 140.0 bn with 80% of

the corpus in the form of equity. Over the past few years, deals in Indian Asset Management

business range from 2% - 13% of the AUM. We have also seen that higher equity portion derived

higher valuation multiple. Hence, we believe our valuation of Sundaram Mutual Fund (6% of

AUM) is conservative and reasonable.

AUM Growth

Source: Company, FQ Research

AMC Business Financials

FY09 FY10 FY11E

Gross Income 861 1117 1475

PBDT 192 330 442

Prov. For Depreciation 26 21 44

PBT 166 309 398

Prov. For Tax 59 101 133

PAT 107 208 266

AUM 92670 138780 173475

Source: Company, FQ Research

The Average Assets under Management (AUM) of Sundaram BNP Paribas Asset Management Company

Ltd. was INR 138.8 bn for the year 2009-10, registering a growth of 49.8% as compared to INR 92.7

bn in the previous year. It earned a total income of INR 1117.1 mn for FY10, by way of investment

management and advisory fees and other income as compared to INR 860.5 mn in FY09. After

providing for depreciation and tax, the company reported a profit of INR 208.4 mn for FY10 as against

INR 106.8 mn in FY09.

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 9

Sundaram BNP Paribas Home Finance Limited (50.1%)

SFL Limited (SFL) and Union de Credit pour le Batiment (UCB) a wholly-owned subsidiary of

BNP Paribas (France) had entered into an agreement in 2007 regarding a strategic partnership in

housing finance in India whereby, UCB acquired 49.9% and SFL acquired 50.1% stake in

Sundaram Home Finance Limited.

The company offers Home Loans, Extension Loans , Improvement Loans, Land Loans, NRI Loans

and Loans to Professionals.

Loan growth

Source: Company, FQ Research

Financials

FY09 FY10 FY11E

NII 453.8 412.0 523.0

Other Income 217.8 302.5 313.8

Operating income 671.6 714.5 836.8

Operating cost 245.4 252.7 292.9

Operating profit 426.2 461.8 543.9

Provisions & other exp. 33.6 46.9 59.4

PBT 392.6 414.9 484.5

Tax 124.5 137.7 161.3

PAT 268.1 277.2 323.1

ROE 13.8 13.0 13.2

Book value 25.4 27.7 30.5

EPS 3.4 3.5 4.0

CAR 14.4 18.7 18.0

CI ratio 36.5 35.4 35.0

GNPA 0.3 0.3 0.3

NNPA 0.1 0.1 0.1

PCR 67% 68% 71%

Net worth 2034.5 2217.9 2447.3

Source: Company, FQ Research

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 10

In FY10, company approved loans aggregating to INR 9.2 bn as against INR 6.0 bn for FY09 and

disbursements for FY10 amounted to INR 7.4 bn as against INR 5.3 bn in FY09. The company earned

Gross Income of INR 2.4 bn as against INR 2.1 bn in FY09 and reported a profit after tax for FY10 of

INR 277.2 mn as against INR 268.1 mn in FY09. The loan portfolio in March 2010 stood at INR 19.8

bn as against INR 15.9 bn FY09. GNPA and NNPA stood at 0.34% and 0.11% respectively inMarch

2010 of 31.03.10, clearly the best in the industry. We expect Housing finance business to continue its

robust growth as the company has strong presence in South India due to surge in low cost housing

projects and coming under construction in FY11.

Other Subisdiaries

Name Business Holding Gross PAT NetworthIncome

Sundaram BNP Paribas AMC 100% 12.4 4.2 84.3Trustee Company Limited

SFL Distribution Limited Distribution of 100% 60.7 19.7 38.5insurance products

LGF Services Limited Distribution & marketing 100% 57.2 18.3 24.1of financial products

Sundaram Infotech IT 100% 188.2 13.1 40.0Solutions Limited

Sundaram Business BPO 100% 199.1 (31.1) 150.0Services Limited

Infreight Logistics Logistic services 88% 172.6 (20.7) 50.1Solutions Limited

Sundaram BNP Paribas MF accounting. 51% 11.3 (22.2) 300.0Fund Services Limited

Source: Company, FQ Research

Joint Ventures

Royal Sundaram Alliance Insurance Company Ltd (49.9%)

Royal Sundaram Alliance Insurance Company Ltd is a JV between SFL and Royal & Sun Alliance

Insurance Group. SFL holds 49.9% of the stake. It provides insurance products like Health

insurance, Car insurance, Travel insurance, Home insurance, Hospital cash insurance, Accident

insurance and Business insurance.

Royal Sundaram registered a growth of 13.6% in Gross Written Premium to INR 9.1 bn as against

INR 8.0 bn in FY09 and earned an investment income of INR 927.4 mn as against INR 755.6 mn

in FY09. The company also reported a substantially higher net profit of INR 309.7 mn in FY10 as

against INR 56.6 mn in FY09 (best ever performance in the decade since its inception). As per

certain media reports, SFL is planning to exiting this Joint Venture and is currently in talks with

interested parties to hive off its stake. We have valued SFL’s stake in the JV at 2 x Book Value

and believe in to be conservative.

BNP Paribas Sundaram Global Securities Operations Private Limited (49%)

BNP Paribas Sundaram Global Securities Operations Pvt. Ltd is the business process off-shoring

centre located in Chennai in connection with the business of BP2S in Asia and prospectively

Europe.The company is the Asian Hub, which supports both Local clearing and custody, Global

custody services of the Asian Spokes such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Seoul and Mumbai.

The company provides services to BP2S such as Settlement, Custody, Cash and Cross-Services

and control.

For the period September 2008 to March 2010, BNP Paribas Sundaram Global Securities

Operations Private Limited, which acts as the business process Off-shoring centre of BNP Paribas

Securities Services in Asia, earned gross income of INR 409.1 mn and reported a profit after tax

of INR 44.4 mn.

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 11

Peer comparison

SFL's major competitors are Mahindra & Mahindra Finance Ltd. (MMF) and Shriram Transport Finance

Ltd.(STF).

Product mix

MMF derives major chunk i.e. ~60% of its revenue from its parent company Mahindra & Mahindra.

MMF has dominance in UV and tractor segment. MMF average yield on Tractor loans is 20%-24%,

CV sales yield is 20% and 18% yield comes from UV segment.

STF is mainly in used CV sales i.e. 76% of its AUM is in used CV category and rest is in new CV sales.

STF has 7%-8% of market share in new CV financing and 20% to25% in used CV financing business.

Out of its total AUM as on March 2010, INR 69.7 bn is from new CV financing. Average yield on new

CV financing is 15%-16% and 18%-24% comes from used CV financing.

Business size comparison

Source: Company, FQ Research

Distribution network

Among the peers SFL has much vast distribution network, which helps it to reach wider customer

base and to provide efficient service on time. SFL distribution network is mainly concentrated in

South India. SFL plans to open up new 100 branches in FY10 to create better Pan India presence that

would help the company in increasing its market share.

Distribution network

Source: Company, FQ Research

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 12

Best asset quality among the peers

SFL has the lowest NPA level among its peers on back of strict credit appraisal and efficient recovery

skills. With such stringent control over the asset quality, we expect the NPA levels to remain low

along with the growth in AUM for SFL.

Asset quality comparison

Source: Company, FQ Research

Capital adequacy ratio is low for SFL as compared to its peers, though it is well above the 12%

mandatory RBI requirement.

Capital adequacy ratio

Source: Company, FQ Research

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 13

Valuation

RoE RoA PE PBV

2010 2011E 2010 2011E 2010 2011E 2010 2011E

STF 28.6 27.9 3.2 4.1 21.0 15.1 5.1 3.7

MMF 19.5 23.0 3.8 4.5 21.8 15.4 4.1 3.3

SFL 18.4 19.9 2.6 2.7 16.6 13.3 2.9 2.6

Source: Bloomberg, FQ Research

Valuations SFL

Particulars Valuation Multiple INR Mn

Core Business 2.5 x FY11E ABV 36788

AMC 6.0% of AUM 8396

Home Loan 2.0 x FY11 ABV (50.1%) 2424

Other Subsidiaries 1.0x ABV (as per holding %) 534

General Insurance JV 2.0 x BV 2532

Global Securities JV 8.0 x FY10 PE 176

Fair Value 50850

Fair Value per Share Equity 555 mn ( FV 10) 916

SFL has shown impressive performance in FY10 and Q1FY11, though partly this has been due to low

base effect, we expect SFL to continue the growth momentum for FY11E on back of increasing financing

demand as the economy improves. Our Target Price derives 28% of its value from subsidiaries and

JVs. Based on our SOTP method, Our Fair Value for SFL comes at INR 916 per share. Adjusting for fair

value of subsidiaries, SFL is trading at its 1.6 x FY11E ABV. Its peers MMFSL and STFL are trading at

3.3x and 3.7x its FY11E ABV respectively. We believe such steep discount in core business is not

warranted.

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One year forward band charts

PABV

Source: Company, FQ Research

PBV

Source: Company, FQ Research

PE

Source: Company, FQ Research

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 15

Profit and Loss statement

FYE March, INR mn FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E

Interest earned 9,017.6 10,827.8 11,818.9 14,767.3

Interest expended 4,970.0 6,454.4 6,338.0 7,835.9

Net interest income 4,047.7 4,373.4 5,481.0 6,931.4

Non-interest income 223.6 319.9 414.3 458.0

Operating expenses 1,903.3 2,034.5 2,369.7 2,760.2

Pre-provisioning profits 2,368.0 2,658.8 3,525.6 4,629.2

Provisions & contingencies 330.8 461.7 544.7 609.7

PBT 3,029.0 2,197.1 3,234.8 4,019.5

Income tax, Interest tax 903.5 689.8 967.3 1,205.9

Net profit 2,125.4 1,507.3 2,267.5 2,813.7

Balance Sheet

FYE March, INR mn FY08 FY09E FY10 FY11E

Current Assets 5,619 6,888 16,649 12,732

Current Liabilities & provisions 6,276 5,788 6,736 7,999

Net Current Assets (658) 1,099 9,913 4,732

Loans and advances 65,231 65,396 79,936 98,144

Investments 4,565 5,119 5,374 5,743

Net Block (inc CWIP) 1,726 2,024 2,324 2,831

Deferred Tax asset 375 509 553 621

Total assets 71,239 74,148 98,102 112,072

Share Capital 278 556 556 556

ESOPS - - 2 2

Reserves & surplus 10,152 10,972 12,606 14,619

Net Worth 10,430 11,527 13,164 15,177

Secured Loans 43,172 41,773 58,842 67,668

Unsecured Loans 17,638 20,848 26,096 29,228

Total liabilities 71,239 74,148 98,102 112,072

Ratios

FYE March, INR mn FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E

Shares outstanding (mn) 27.8 55.6 55.6 55.6

FDEPS (Rs) 76.5 27.1 40.8 50.6

DPS (Rs) 15.0 6.5 7.5 12.6

Book value (Rs) 375.5 207.5 237.0 273.2

Adjusted book value INR/ sh 364.0 198.7 230.5 264.9

Valuation ratios

P/E (x) 8.8 24.8 16.5 13.3

P/BV (x) 1.8 3.2 2.8 2.5

P/ABV (x) 1.9 3.4 2.9 2.5

Return Ratios (%)

Interest spread 4.8 4.6 5.3 5.5

Net interest margin 4.6 4.5 5.3 6.1

Yield on assets 12.5 14.2 13.2 13.5

Cost of funds 7.7 9.5 7.9 8.0

Opex cost/ Total income 44.6 43.3 40.2 37.4

Return on average net worth 22.1 13.7 18.4 19.9

Return on average assets 3.1 2.1 2.6 2.7

Growth ratios (%)

Net interest income 52.0 8.0 25.3 26.5

Total income 43.7 9.9 25.6 25.3

Pre-provisioning profit 51.6 12.3 32.6 31.3

PAT 111.6 (29.1) 50.4 24.1

Asset quality (%)

Gross NPA 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.3

Net NPA ratio 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5

CAR 14.2 14.7 16.9 15.6

Tier-I ratio 13.6 14.0 14.3 13.2

Standalone Financials

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For Private Circulation OnlyOctober 21, 2010 16

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