Upload
dangnhu
View
218
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Tantangan dan potensi Indonesia 2016
Kresnayana Yahya Email: [email protected] Blog: http://www.kresnayana.com
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 1
Realitas 2015
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 2
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 3
World challenge
New orientation
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 4
Rebalancing is needed along two dimensions
Private demand
Demand from external surplus economies
Public demand Demand from external deficit economies
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 5
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Data, July 2015 kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 6
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 7
QE increase reserve account
• Example: US Fed :
sejak 2008 sudah $
14 Triliun
• Di gelontorkan
• Sekarang waktunya
dollar ditarik pulang
• Dan di masukkan
kembali
Growth of world gross product, 2008–2016*
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Data, 2015; UN/DESA *Growth rate for 2014 is partially estimated; rates for 2015 and 2016 are forecast kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 8
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 9
Penyesuaian dan transisi
• Saatnya Indonesia membangun
Infrastruktur di luar jawa dengan APBN
dan di Jawa dengan penyertaan Investor
• Konsolidasi utama : Maritim dan
Transportasi
• Peningkatan kemandirian pangan
• Fokus pada penyediaan manusia
berkualitas: pendidikan dan kesehatan
• Menumbuhkan Ekonomi Kreatif, Pariwisata kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 10
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 11
World economic growth 2016
US 3.4% JP 1.3%
S. AF 5.1%
World 4.9%
CIS 4.2%
ME/NA
5.1%
LAm 3.9%
RoA 8.6%
EU 2.1%
International Macroeconomic Policy
situation
• Macroeconomic developments depend on macro
policies:
– Conventional (the policy rate tool, the money supply)
and unconventional monetary policy such as, ZIRP
(Zero Interest Rate Policy), QE (Quantitative Easing),
CE (credit easing), FG (Forward Guidance), Negative
Interest Rates, Liquidity Support of Banks and Non-
Banks
– Conventional (tax and government spending) and
unconventional fiscal policy (bailouts and backstop of
banks, households, corporations and other state
guarantees for economic agents kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 13
• PORTS – Container mega hub
• Medan –Jakarta-Surabaya-Makasar-
Bitung – Free port, Service
and Industrial port declared as a
“Free Port”
• – Leisure Port
• – Port-related
industries and Port City
l – Commercial and
fisheries
• Kankasanthurei and Point Pedro –
Regional ports
• Six international airport
• Modernisation and the Runway at Upgrading of domestic airports
• as a regional logistics and services hub
• IT literacy and internet access for all
• Creation of knowledge-based jobs
• Promotion of research and innovation
• as an “education” destination Accredited foreign universities
• Develop renewable energy sources
• Oil exploration and production –
(Mannar, Cauvery, Southern waters)
• Develop oil trade related ancilliary
services including gas
• as a top centre in the region for commercial
services
• Growth of ports and tourism will
catalyse the development of
commercial sector
• Industry, Manufacturing
• Arrivals target of 15
mn by 2020
• Earnings from Tourism
– develop tourism HUB
The Economic Diversification Programme would need to continue, based on the ‘5 Hubs ++’ concept…
14
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015
Our vision for a sustainable economic cycle
Building growth on opportunities
More economic
opportunities
Maintain and enhance natural
environment
More participation opportunities
Higher value economic
activity
Reduce inequities
Develop strong communities
Town amenity
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 15
16
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 17
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 18
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 19
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 20
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 21
• Indonesia berpeluang menghemat penggunaan BBM khususnya dan energi umumnya, sehingga juga menekan impor dengan cukup signifikan.
• Harga energy pada umumnya turun dan beaya logistik diperkirakan makin efisien
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 22
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 23
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 24
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 25
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 26
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 27
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 28
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 29
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 30
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 31
Peta Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Daerah Triwulan II 2015
Sumber : KER BI, 2015 kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 32
PDRB per Provinsi Semester I-2015 di Wilayah Timur Indonesia
12.12
12.93
13.71
15.79
30.88
35.95
41.88
42.37
51.45
64.06
163.52
0 50 100 150 200
Maluku
Maluku Utara
Gorontalo
Sulawesi Barat
Papua Barat
Nusa Tenggara Timur
Sulawesi Tenggara
Sulawesi Utara
Sulawesi Tengah
Papua
Sulawesi Selatan
(triliun rupiah)
Nusa Tenggara Timur
Sulawesi Utara
Sulawesi Selatan
Sulawesi Barat
Sulawesi Tengah
Gorontalo
Maluku Utara
Maluku
Papua Barat
Papua
Sulawesi Tenggara
33,7%
13,2% 10,6%
8,7%
8,6%
7,4%
6,4%
3,3%
2,8%
2,7%
2,5%
Distribusi PDRB
Sumber: BPS Prov (NTT, Sulut, Sulteng, Sulsel, Sultra, Gorontalo, Sulbar, Maluku, Malut, Pabar, & Papua) 2015, diolah Enciety Business Consult kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 33
PETA INFLASI DAERAH
Sumber : KER BI, 2015 kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 34
Konsumsi
Sumber : KER BI, 2015
Konsumsi rumah tangga (RT) di triwulan II 2015 masih tumbuh melambat dibanding periode
triwulan sebelumnya.
Konsumsi rumah tangga tumbuh sebesar 4,72% (yoy) di triwulan II 2015, lebih rendah
dibanding realisasi di triwulan I 2015 yang tumbuh sebesar 4,96% (yoy). Kondisi ini dipengaruhi
oleh meningkatnya harga BBM pada akhir triwulan I dan cenderung melemahnya daya beli
masyarakat sebagaimana terindikasi dari hasil Survei Konsumen (SK). kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 35
Konsumsi
Sumber : KER BI, 2015
Penyaluran kredit konsumsi bahkan tercatat melambat hingga di titik terendahnya
selama 3 tahun terakhir yakni 9,95% (yoy).
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 36
Produksi Industri Kendaraan Bermotor
Sumber : KER BI, 2015
Pertumbuhan kredit kendaraan bermotor juga melambat cukup dalam hingga 5,78% (yoy),
sejalan dengan rendahnya penjualan sepeda motor dan kendaraan roda 4 yang hanya tumbuh -
18% dan -25% secara tahunan.
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 37
Investasi
Sumber : KER BI, 2015
Kinerja Investasi PMA
Investasi di triwulan II 2015 tercatat
melambat karena terbatasnya investasi
swasta maupun pemerintah.
Investasi triwulan II 2015 tercatat
sebesar 4,70%, melambat dari 5,07% di
triwulan I 2015.
Kinerja Investasi PMDN
Data BKPM menunjukkan terjadinya penurunan
realisasi investasi swasta domestik hingga
7,40% (yoy), sementara peningkatan realisasi
investasi swasta asing masih terbatas.
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 38
Perkembangan Investasi
Sumber : KER BI, 2015
Likert Scale Investasi dan perkiraannya
Indikator Perekonomian Mitra Dagang (PMI)
Masih rendahnya anggaran belanja modal
pemerintah baik pusat maupun daerah turut
berdampak pada kinerja investasi Jawa.
Demikian halnya dengan impor barang modal
yang tercatat menurun cukup dalam hingga
21% (yoy) pada Juni 2015.
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 39
Kinerja Ekspor Jawa
Sumber : KER BI, 2015
Kinerja ekspor kawasan Jawa di triwulan II 2015 tercatat melambat terutama dipengaruhi oleh masih
lemahnya permintaan global.
Ekspor Jawa pada triwulan II 2015 tumbuh sebesar 1,77%, melambat dibandingkan triwulan I 2015 yang
tumbuh 4,83%.
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 40
Kinerja Impor Jawa
Sumber : KER BI, 2015
Pada triwulan II 2015, impor turun cukup signifikan dibandingkan triwulan sebelumnya, khususnya impor
barang antara, barang konsumsi dan barang modal.
Impor mengalami penurunan hingga -4,85% (yoy), setelah tumbuh 0,23% pada triwulan sebelumnya.
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 41
Business tendency third quarter 2015
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 42
The Opportunity of Asian Markets
Developing Asia will account for 65% of global energy demand growth –
four times the combined growth of Latin America and Africa
Global Perspective:
Sources: BP Energy Outlook 2035; OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2014
kresnayana yahya, oktober
2015
43
Asia’s Energy Mix (Regional Level)
Source: “Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035,” Asian Development Bank. October 14, 2014.
kresnayana yahya, oktober
2015
44
Country and Sub-Regional Views
While China is looking to shift its mix from coal to gas, SE Asia will see the reverse.
Meanwhile: uncertainty in Japan continues to impact markets.
China
SE Asia
Japan
Sources: BP Energy Outlook 2035; OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook Special Report: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook; Nature
kresnayana yahya, oktober
2015
45
WHAT IS AT STAKE?
• Increasing access to electricity and to energy overall is vital to sustaining the region’s economic growth.
• Yet if current trends continue, the Asia-Pacific’s CO2 emissions are likely to more than triple by 2050 (ADB).
• Countries are looking for supplies that best provide for three core needs –
economic security, environmental security, and geopolitical security.
“Climate change will cut agricultural
crop yields and hike food prices –
every 10% rise will push another 64
million Asians into poverty.”
Source: “Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035,” ADB. October 14, 2014.
kresnayana yahya, oktober
2015
46
Asia’s Search for Energy Supply Security • Declining energy self-sufficiency is a
regional trend. By 2020, Asia will be a net importer of fossil fuels.
• Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are already 100% import dependent for oil, gas, and coal.
• Indonesia is seeing domestic demand rise steadily, and is looking for strategies to sustain the role of energy in promoting its economic growth.
• China is a top global producer of both oil and gas, yet rising demand means that import dependence will climb through 2035 (oil: 80%; gas: 40%).
• Australia, Russia, others continue as regional suppliers, yet overall demand pushes Asian consumers to also look outside of the region.
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035
kresnayana yahya, oktober
2015
47
Index for evaluating Energy Security A View from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
• The degree to which stable fuel procurement is possible in the face of contingent/unforeseen risks that impact supplies
• The extent to which an environment is in place that allows the fuel to be stably supplied
• Specific variables: • Past production record of supplier
country • Conflict frequency of supplier country • Disruption risk of transport routes • Overall portfolio of the importing
country - diversification of suppliers, transportation routes and fuel mix
EVALUATING ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES
kresnayana yahya, oktober
2015
48
KEY PRIORITIES & QUESTIONS FOR ASIA Strengthening Markets for
Energy and Environmental Security
• Expand energy access to the 700 million
people in Asia still without electricity
• Develop and strengthen infrastructure to
avoid energy becoming a bottleneck to
economic growth
• Buffer against geopolitical and market
shocks that can disrupt access to supplies
or increase price volatility
• Address rising environmental concerns
with air quality and pollution
• Pairing technology and policy to improve
energy consumption
What role can U.S. exports play in
supporting these goals?
kresnayana yahya, oktober
2015
49
GROWING SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN OIL
U.S. oil production has hit a 40+ year high, and crude inventories are the highest on record
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, The Wall Street Journal.
Total U.S. energy production & consumption in the Reference case, 1980-2040 (quadrillion Btu)
U.S. net petroleum product imports in four cases, 2005-40 (million barrels per day)
kresnayana yahya, oktober
2015
50
What is business
Business – whether they make dog food or software - don’t sell products, they sell solutions
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 51
Disruption
• All disruption starts with
introspection • You have a choice : pursue your dreams or
be hired by someone else to helpthem fulfil
their dreams
• True disruption alters a
market or system forever
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 52
Entrepreneur
“simply those who understand that there is little difference between obstacle and opportunity and are able to turn both to their advantage”
Will you do it?
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 53
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 54
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 55
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 56
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 57
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 58
Growth strategy
• Cashflow
• Market share development
• Renewing process
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 59
The Boston Consulting Group’s
Growth-Share Matrix
20%- 18%- 16%- 14%- 12%- 10%- 8%- 6%- 4%- 2%- 0 M
ark
et
Gro
wth
Ra
te
10x 4x 2x 1.5x 1x Relative Market Share
.5x .4x .3x .2x .1x
Dogs 8
7
3 ? Question marks
? 2
1
Cash cows
6
Stars
5
4
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 60
61
Why The Third Industrial Revolution?
• First Industrial Revolution powered by the wheels of power run by steam.
• Second Industrial Revolution thrived on great advances on automation & mobility.
• The Third Industrial Revolution will be propelled by the power of connectivity, power of mind and energy farming, mass entrepreneurship.
There will be no poor, no hunger and no unemployment …
in the third industrial revolution. kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015
62
First Industrial Revolution .: Powered by the wheels of power run by steam.
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015
63
Second Industrial Revolution .: Thrived on great advances on automation & mobility.
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015
64
The Third Industrial Revolution .: Propelled by the power of connectivity, power of mind and energy farming, mass entrepreneurship.
.: connectivity :. .: energy farming :.
.: power of mind :. .: mass entrepreneurship :. kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015
EE141
65
Consumer
Computer
Telecom
Medical
Aerospace
Transportation
USA
Soft
war
e, A
pp
lica
tion
s
Product Life Cycle
applies to every
product & service
Software base development
kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 66
Mencapai 13 400 tanggal 9/10/2015
Persentase dan Andil Perubahan (IHPB) Bahan Bangunan/Konstruksi Indonesia Agustus 2015
Sumber: BPS Indonesia kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 67
Persentase dan Andil Perubahan (IHPB) Indonesia Non Migas Agustus 2015
Sumber: BPS Indonesia kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 68
Persentase Perubahan (IHPB) Menurut Kelompok Bahan Bangunan/Konstruksi Indonesia Agustus 2015
Sumber: BPS Indonesia kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 69
Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi Jilid III
3. Penyederhanaan izin pertanahan untuk kegiatan penanaman modal
1. Kementerian ATR/BPN merevisi Permen Nomor 2 Tahun 2015 tentang Standar Pelayanan dan Pengaturan Agraria, Tata Ruang, dan Pertanahan dalam Kegiatan Penanaman Modal.
2. Beberapa substansi pengaturan baru ini mencakup beberapa hal, seperti: a. Pemohon mendapatkan informasi tentang ketersediaan lahan (semula 7 hari menjadi 3 jam). b. Seluruh permohonan didaftarkan sebagai bentuk kepastian bagi pemohon terhadap ketersediaan dan rencana penggunaan lahan. Surat akan dikeluarkan dalam waktu 3 jam. c. Kelengkapan perizinan prinsip: - Proposal, pendirian perusahaan, hak atas tanah menjadi persyaratan awal untuk dimulainya kegiatan lapangan. - Ada persyaratan yang dapat menyusul sampai dengan sebelum diterbitkannya keputusan tentang hak penggunaan lahan.
Sumber : Kontan
Pergerakan Rupiah 2015
Sumber : Bloomberg
Rencana Belanja Negara 2016
Sumber : Kementerian Keuangan
3. Penyederhanaan izin pertanahan untuk
kegiatan penanaman modal
Proyeksi Inflasi s/d 2016
Sumber : SEKI- BI & CEIC; 2015
Laporan Inflasi (Indeks Harga konsumen) 2015
6.96%
6.29% 6.38%
6.79%
7.15%
7.26% 7.26% 7.18%
6.83%
Januari2015
Februari2015
Maret2015
Apr-15 Mei 2015 Juni 2015 Juli 2015 Agustus2015
Sep-15
Sumber : Laporan BI 2015
Sumber : SEKI- BI & CEIC; 2015
Perkiraan Indikator Ekonomi s/d 2016
Sumber: Bappenas – Oxford Economic Model (Baseline Scenario)
Perkembangan Dan Perkiraan Ekspor Dunia s/d 2019
Lab testing
R&D+i projects
Promote the use of
standards
Product development
Technical information and
Technological watch
Training
Technical Assistance
Technological Transfer
Innovation
R&D+i
Productivity and Quality
improvement
Enterprise
Value Chain
Logistics management and ITC
Role and Services in Consumer Industry
MA R K E T
Quality System
Pilot Plants
kresnayana yahya,
pengembanganindustri september 2015 77
Asset
Management
Industry
Forces
Technology
Forces Of Change
NOTICE: This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information
generally available to the public and does not contain any material, nonpublic information. The presentation has been prepared solely for information
purposes, is not a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented June 26, 2001.
Asset
Management
Industry
Technology
Changing
Customers
Forces Of Change
Forces
NOTICE: This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information
generally available to the public and does not contain any material, nonpublic information. The presentation has been prepared solely for information
purposes, is not a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented June 26, 2001.
Asset
Management
Industry
Technology
Changing
Customers
Forces Of Change
Market
Maturation
Forces
NOTICE: This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information
generally available to the public and does not contain any material, nonpublic information. The presentation has been prepared solely for information
purposes, is not a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented June 26, 2001.
Asset
Management
Industry
Technology
Changing
Customers
Increased
Competition
Forces Of Change
Market
Maturation
Forces
NOTICE: This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information
generally available to the public and does not contain any material, nonpublic information. The presentation has been prepared solely for information
purposes, is not a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented June 26, 2001.
Asset
Management
Industry
Changes
Power Shifting to Distributors
Losing Control of the Customer
Greater Mobility of Assets
Ubiquity of Products & Services
Performance Transparency
Price Transparency
Commodization of the Mutual Fund
Slower Organic Growth
Increased Pressure On Margins
Forces Of Change
Technology
Changing
Customers
Increased
Competition
Market
Maturation
Forces
NOTICE: This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information
generally available to the public and does not contain any material, nonpublic information. The presentation has been prepared solely for information
purposes, is not a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented June 26, 2001.
The Hypernet
2010
2
00
0
INTERNET HYPERNET
Devices
Standards
Bandwidth
Fragmentation/
Integration
Services
Virtualization
Asset
Management
Industry
Changes
Power Shifting to Distributors
Losing Control of the Customer
Greater Mobility of Assets
Ubiquity of Products & Services
Performance Transparency
Price Transparency
Commodization of the Mutual Fund
Slower Organic Growth
Increased Pressure On Margins
Forces Of Change
Technology
Changing
Customers
Increased
Competition
Market
Maturation
Forces
NOTICE: This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information
generally available to the public and does not contain any material, nonpublic information. The presentation has been prepared solely for information
purposes, is not a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented June 26, 2001.
Foxconn/China:
1,000,000 robots in next 3
years
Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
1
“The root of our problem is not that we’re in a Great Recession
or a Great Stagnation, but rather that we are in the early
throes of a Great Restructuring. Our
technologies are racing ahead, but our skills and organizations
are lagging behind.”
Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
1
Strategic Areas
Green Innovation
Life Innovation
Asia
Tourism-
Oriented Nation
& Local
Revitalization
Science and
Technology
IT Oriented
Nation
Employment
& Human
Resources
Financial
Sector
New Growth Strategy 2010 – 2020
88
…And Affected by the
Development of Organizations
Compete
Collaborate
Control
Create
Where is Your Organization on the growth curve? www.competingvalues.com kresnayana yahya,
pengembanganindustri september 2015 88
The Innovation Cycle for SME’s
Lab Tests Training Legislative Surveillance
Quality Product & Systems Certification
Technological Audits Prototyping
Business Intelligence
Product Development
R&D
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
891
Why is AM(additive manufacturing) becoming
so important to manufacturers
(I want to be a user!)
So where are the
opportunities to get involved in the consumer 3D printing
space?
The 3DP Ecosystem
Machines
Materials
Products Design
solutions Data
management
Integrated solutions
Front end software
Machines
Materials
Products Design
solutions Back-end software
Integrated solutions
Communications
Managing Change
Leadership Coaching
Commitment
Technology
Change
The Human Side of Change
Mission/Vision Strategies
kresnayana yahya,
pengembanganindustri september 2015 94
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
95
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
96
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
97
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
99
“Mengangkat Indonesia menjadi negara maju dan merupakan kekuatan 12 besar dunia di tahun 2025 dan 8 besar dunia pada tahun 2045 melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan”
(Sumber: Master Plan Percepatan dan Perluasan
Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia 2011– 2025 )
2010 PDB ~ US$ 700 Milyar
Pendapatan/kap US$ 3,000 (2010)
Terbesar ke-17 besar dunia
2025
PDB: 3,8 – 4,5 Trilyun US$ Pendapatan/kap: 13.000 – 16.100 US$ Terbesar ke-12 dunia Proyeksi KEN Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 14,900 (high income country)
2045
PDB ~US$ 16.6 Trilyun
Prediksi Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 46,900
Diprediksi menjadi terbesar ke-7 atau ke-8 dunia*)
100 tahun kemerdekaan
Pencapaian Visi 2025 dan 2045 memerlukan penyiapan generasi yang mampu berperan aktif dalam kegiatan pembangunan. Edukasi, Investasi dan Infrastruktur kresnayana yahya,
pengembanganindustri
september 2015
100
Creative Economy Creative Economy
Integration Experience
Inn
ov
ation
Experience
Experience
Community
Reflection
Community
Trend pekerjaan masa depan
• Makin banyak pekerjaan bukan rutin job, makin banyak non rutin work . Kerja profesionals makin entrepreneurial
• Wujud pekerjaan makin Service based berbasis Knowledge dan mengandung Problem solving
• Penghargaan tertinggi pada kemampuan Design • Menghadapi MEA , kemampuan kerja produktif
harus ditingkatkan • Creativity menjadi elemen utama dalam
peningkatan innovasi
EC - 109 © Minder Chen, 1996-2014
EC and Business Processes Seller Buyer
Co
rpo
rate
Data
bases
Provide
Info
Get
customer
Provide
info
Fulfill
order
Support
Identify
need
Find
source
Evaluate
offerings
Purchase
Operate,
Maintain,
Repair
Phone,
fax, e-mail
Web site
Newsgroups
Net
communities
Web site
EDI
Web site, phone,
fax, e-mail, e-
mailing list
Credit cards, e-cash P.O.s
Demos,
reviews
Send info
Data sheets,
catalogs, demos
Request info
Web surfing
Web searches,
web ads
Deliver soft goods electronically
Selling Process Procurement Process
Customer Feedbacks/Reviews
Dis/Re-intermediation
Pearson/Prentice Hall & Dr. Chen, Electronic Commerce
Government Professional
Association
Universities
Research Institutions
Manufacturers
Contractors
Suppliers
Subsuppliers
Retailers
Customers
Dealers
Content
Providers
Banks
Financial
Institutions
Logistics
Services IT Providers
Other
Exchanges
Market Maker
and Administrator
Trading
Community ( An Exchange )
The Community of an Exchange:
Information Flow and Access to Information
Manfred Bornemann: Wissensmanagement 2013
symbols
data
information
knowledge
applying
act
competency
+ syntax
+ meaning
+ context (experiences, expectations)
+ focus of application
+ strategic intent
+ act “correct”
+ uniqueness
competitive
advantage
Source: North, K. (1999): Wissensbasierte Unternehmensführung: Wertschöpfung durch Wissen. 2. Aufl., Wiesbaden: Gabler.
A staircase model of knowledge
education transformation 2015 112
education transformation 2015 113
EC - 114 © Minder Chen, 1996-2014
The Real Cost of Music: Physical vs. Digital
115
Mental Resources
Technology
Information
Knowledge
Creativity
“Unlike material resources, information & knowledge are not lost when you give them away.” Harlan Cleveland
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri
september 2015
116
Internet as Mental
Organization
Internet multiplies human capabilities &
extends social organization 1000-fold
Global social networking
Global access to information
Global free communication
Global transactions
The potential impact on productivity of
resources & quality of life is
incalculable kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri
september 2015
The Analytics Maturity Model
Standard Reports
Ad-Hoc Reports
Query Drill-down
Alerts
Statistical Analysis
Forecasting
Predictive Modeling
Optimization
What happened?
How many, how often?
Where exactly is the problem
What actions are needed?
Why is this happening? What opportunities are we missing?
What if these trends continue?
What will happen next?
How do we do things better?
Adapted from SAS kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
117
Why is AM(additive manufacturing) becoming
so important to manufacturers
(I want to be a user!)
So where are the
opportunities to get involved in the consumer 3D printing
space?
The 3DP Ecosystem
Machines
Materials
Products Design
solutions Data
management
Integrated solutions
Front end software
Machines
Materials
Products Design
solutions Back-end software
Integrated solutions
Communications
Managing Change
Leadership Coaching
Commitment
Technology
Change
The Human Side of Change
Mission/Vision Strategies
kresnayana yahya,
pengembanganindustri september 2015 122
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
123
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
124
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
125
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
127
“Mengangkat Indonesia menjadi negara maju dan merupakan kekuatan 12 besar dunia di tahun 2025 dan 8 besar dunia pada tahun 2045 melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan”
(Sumber: Master Plan Percepatan dan Perluasan
Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia 2011– 2025 )
2010 PDB ~ US$ 700 Milyar
Pendapatan/kap US$ 3,000 (2010)
Terbesar ke-17 besar dunia
2025
PDB: 3,8 – 4,5 Trilyun US$ Pendapatan/kap: 13.000 – 16.100 US$ Terbesar ke-12 dunia Proyeksi KEN Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 14,900 (high income country)
2045
PDB ~US$ 16.6 Trilyun
Prediksi Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 46,900
Diprediksi menjadi terbesar ke-7 atau ke-8 dunia*)
100 tahun kemerdekaan
Pencapaian Visi 2025 dan 2045 memerlukan penyiapan generasi yang mampu berperan aktif dalam kegiatan pembangunan. Edukasi, Investasi dan Infrastruktur kresnayana yahya,
pengembanganindustri
september 2015
128
Tantangan di Indonesia
• Pasar yang sangat besar dan sangat MUDA, median age Indonesia 26 Tahun
• Middle class economy 120 juta- 150 juta orang untuk beragam durable goods
• Tersebar di ratusan pulau dan berjarak
• Waktunya mendistribusika n kegiatan idnutry di luar Jawa
• Produk high tech dan applicationnya justru menjadi kebutuhan
• Proses adaptasi Teknologi baru jadi sangat mudah
130
Mental Resources
Technology
Information
Knowledge
Creativity
“Unlike material resources, information & knowledge are not lost when you give them away.” Harlan Cleveland
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri
september 2015
131
Internet as Mental
Organization
Internet multiplies human capabilities &
extends social organization 1000-fold
Global social networking
Global access to information
Global free communication
Global transactions
The potential impact on productivity of
resources & quality of life is
incalculable kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri
september 2015
The Analytics Maturity Model
Standard Reports
Ad-Hoc Reports
Query Drill-down
Alerts
Statistical Analysis
Forecasting
Predictive Modeling
Optimization
What happened?
How many, how often?
Where exactly is the problem
What actions are needed?
Why is this happening? What opportunities are we missing?
What if these trends continue?
What will happen next?
How do we do things better?
Adapted from SAS kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
132
Indonesia masa depan
• Kelas menengah akan mencapai 150 juta orang di 2030
• Konsumsi akan meningkat tajam setelah 2025
• Pola Industry sudah memasuki tahap integrasi dengan Internet
• Tenaga kerja terdidikmelipat dua dibanding 2015
• Peran di Asean akan makin dominan
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
133
Penduduk Indonesia : Young population
Sumber: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 (20101120_WOC951)
Indonesia Kondisi kependudukan Indonesia
Kelompok usia produktif 15-64 tahun mencapai 66 % atau 165 juta Merupakan kesempatan dan peluang konsumsi yang luar biasa besar dan laju pertumbuhannya cukup tinggi Kelompok dibawah 15 tahun yang cukup besar : 70 juta
66%
28%
6%
strategic management Indonesia 2015, kresnayana yahya
134
Angka Ketergantungan
per 100 penduduk usia kerja
1971 2000 2020-2030 >2030
86 54 44 >50
100 orang
bekerja
menanggung
86
100 orang
bekerja
menangung 54
100 orang
bekerja
menanggung
44
tanggungan
meningkat karena
pesatnya
pertambahan
lansia
strategic management Indonesia 2015, kresnayana yahya
135
Kelo
mpok
umur
Jumlah Penduduk (juta)
Generasi 100 thn Merdeka (Usia pada tahun 2045)
Strukutur Penduduk Indonesia Tahun 2010
55-64 tahun
35-44 tahun
Periode Bonus Demografi 2005-2035
Pendidikan dan Kesehatan
Pendidikan dan Kesehatan
Pastikan setiap anak bangsa
mendapatkan layanan
Pendidikan dan Kesehatan
Generasi Emas 100 Tahun Indonesia Merdeka
45,972
43,724
41,529
38,501
30,730
20,026
10,808
3,376
3,853
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-74
75 +
Sumber: Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2010-2015 (Bappenas, BPS, UNFPA 2013))
Jumlah Penduduk:
238,5 Juta orang
136
Generasi
Pemegang Kunci
Kejayaan
Indonesia
45-54 tahun
strategic management Indonesia 2015, kresnayana yahya
Revolusi Services :
strategic management Indonesia 2015, kresnayana yahya
137
strategic management Indonesia 2015, kresnayana yahya
138
Fenomena Baru : social media apps
strategic management Indonesia 2015, kresnayana yahya
139
Enrichment Plan
education transformation 2015 140
The most powerful Local Content
END OF SLIDES THANK YOU
Kresnayana Yahya Email: [email protected] Blog: http://www.kresnayana.com
146 Enciety Business Consult
kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015
147