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Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview HCHMA Trends & Forecasting Forum Tampa, Florida August 4 th , 2016 Presented by: All information in this presentation is confidential and is the property of The Plasencia Group, Inc., subject to limitations of any client contract. © 2016 The Plasencia Group, Inc.

Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

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Page 1: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Tampa Bay Area

Lodging Investment Overview

HCHMA Trends & Forecasting Forum

Tampa, Florida

August 4th, 2016

Presented by:

All information in this presentation is confidential and is the property of The Plasencia Group, Inc., subject to limitations of any client contract.

© 2016 The Plasencia Group, Inc.

Page 2: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 2Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Presentation Disclaimer

■ We are merely presenting information today regarding the economy and the

lodging sector, as well as our firm’s perceptions on the economy and the industry’s

performance.

■ We are not in any way recommending or urging you to take any action whatsoever

as a result of our presentation. Any actions you may decide to take resulting from

any comments today would be at your own risk.

■ We recommend you independently validate today’s information.

■ We make no representation that any statements or projections we may present

today will actually come to fruition.

Page 3: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 3Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

TPG Background

■ Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout the United

States, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean

■ Completed over $15 billion in sales, financings, and developments for hundreds of hotel,

resort and mixed use engagements

■ Corporate headquarters in Tampa with offices throughout the United States

■ Divisions include:

• Investments & Transactions – acquisitions and dispositions, mainly of Upper

Upscale and Luxury full service hotels and resorts

• Capital Markets – Raising investment equity and placing debt for acquisitions,

refinancings and repositionings

• Advisory and Consulting – Providing ownership oversight on behalf of clients and

investment partnerships; Managing hotel construction and renovations for clients and

investment partnerships

Page 4: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 4Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Florida Visitor Volume (2005-2015)

83.6 83.9 84.5 84.280.9

82.3

87.3

91.594.1

98.9101.8

55

65

75

85

95

105

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Vis

ito

rs (

mill

ion

s)

Source: Visit Florida

Page 5: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 5Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Florida International Visitor Volume (2005-2015)

Source: Visit Florida

6.4 6.2

7.2

8.1

9.6

11.1

12.6

13.9

15.4 15.716.1

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Vis

ito

rs (

mill

ion

s)

Page 6: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 6Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Florida Visitor Trip Purpose (2015)

Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates; Visit Florida

38%

26%

10%

8%

7%

11%

General Vacation Visit Relatives/Friends Weekend Getaway

Special Event Other Leisure Business

Page 7: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 7Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Florida Visitor Profile by Trip Purpose (2015)

(1) Visiting Friends & Relatives data is included in Leisure.

(2) Visitors visiting friends and relatives typically inspire increased entertainment and travel spending by their hosts, which is not

reflected in this study.

Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates; Visit Florida

Leisure

Visiting Friends &

Relatives (1) Business

Percentage of Total

Domestic Visitation89% 26% 11%

Per Day Spend $145 $97 (2) $260

Average Length of Stay 4.5 nights 4.3 nights 3.1 nights

Paid Accommodation 60% 21% 84%

Average Party Size 2.3 1.9 1.4

Leading Season Summer (30%) Winter (29%) Fall (29%)

States of Origin

Georgia (10%)

New York (9%)

Ohio (5%)

New York (12%)

Georgia (10%)

Pennsylvania (5%)

Georgia (13%)

New York (11%)

Texas (9%)

Trip Value $1,751 $931 $1,401

Page 8: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 8Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Strong T-12 RevPAR Growth in Major FL Markets

ADR Rate of Growth

Occupancy Rate of Growth

RevPAR Rate of Growth

All segments; Twelve months ending May 2016.

Source: Smith Travel Research.

6.0%

4.7% 4.4%

0.3%

3.6%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Tampa BayArea

Orlando FortLauderdale

Miami Florida

3.1%

1.4%

-0.7% -0.6%

1.2%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Tampa BayArea

Orlando FortLauderdale

Miami Florida

9.3%

6.2%

3.6%

-0.3%

4.9%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Tampa BayArea

Orlando FortLauderdale

Miami Florida

Page 9: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 9Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Supply and Demand Across Florida Markets

-0.1%

0.5%

3.0%

4.2%

1.3% 1.3%

3.0%

1.9%

2.3%

3.6%

2.5%

2.1%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Tampa Bay Area Orlando Fort Lauderdale Miami Florida U.S.

Supply Growth Demand Growth

Twelve months ending May 2016.

Source: Smith Travel Research.

Page 10: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 10Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Transaction Environment

United States

■ The overall number (volume) of hotel sales has decreased dramatically as REITs have stopped

buying.

■ Vast amounts of sovereign money continue to flow into the United States due to uncertainty in

other parts of the world. The USA is seen, now more than ever, as the safest haven for foreign

capital.

■ Increases in room supply in many major markets is now resulting in very little growth in

occupancy while ADR has been the driving component in RevPAR growth..

Tampa Bay

■ US investment activity peaked in late 2015 but transaction pace in the Tampa Bay area has actually

increased.

■ There have already been at least two major transactions (above $20M) in the Tampa Bay area this

year, and at least three more will occur by year end.

■ A new record will be set in our region this year as sale volume and per-key pricing will be the

highest ever recorded.

Page 11: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 11Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

US Lodging Capitalization Rates and Investor Returns

Cap Rates (Stabilized Properties)

■ 6.0% to 7.0% for luxury hotels or full-service hotels in

gateway markets

■ 7.0% to 8.0% for full-service hotels in secondary markets

■ 8.0% to 9.5% for select-service hotels in primary and

secondary markets

IRRs

■ Unlevered: 8.0% to 10.0%

■ Levered: 18.0% to 20.0%

Page 12: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 12Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Florida Hotel Investment Trends

Hotel values in Florida reflect increased profitability, having grown sharply in recent years and

having surpassed both prior peaks and the national average. Florida assets continue to garner

attention from domestic and foreign capital sources seeking to invest in a robust lodging market.

Note: 2013 data includes the transactions of the Fontainebleau Miami Beach and the Hyatt Regency Orlando Convention Center,

the two largest transactions by volume in the entire date range, which accounts for peak in FL Price Per Key in that year.

Source: Real Capital Analytics. Includes all transactions over $10 million.

$30,000

$70,000

$110,000

$150,000

$190,000

$230,000

$270,000

$310,000

$350,000

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD July2016

Price P

er Key

Gro

ss V

olu

me

(billio

ns)

FL Gross Volume (billions) FL Price Per Key U.S. Price Per Key

Page 13: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 13Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Florida Gulf Coast Hotel Sales (25 Most Recent Transactions)

Note: Includes transactions over $10 Million. Source: Real Capital Analytics

Date Hotel City Keys Price Price per Key

Feb-16 Hyatt Regency Clearwater Beach Resort Clearwater Beach 250 $120,500,000 $482,000

Dec-15 Holiday Inn Sanibel Island Sanibel 98 $27,000,000 $275,510

Nov-15 Aloft Tampa Downtown Tampa 130 $28,621,500 $220,165

Jun-16 Hilton Tampa Downtown Tampa 521 $101,000,000 $193,858

May-16 Courtyard by Marriott Naples 98 $18,800,000 $191,837

Jul-16 Residence Inn Clearwater Downtown Clearwater 115 $18,000,000 $156,522

Aug-15 Pierview Hotel & Suites Fort Myers Beach 70 $10,900,000 $155,714

Jun-16 Hampton Inn & Suites Wesley Chapel 94 $13,900,000 $147,872

Jul-16 Hyatt Place Sarasota / Bradenton Airport Sarasota 114 $16,100,000 $141,228

Dec-15 Hampton Inn & Suites Largo 92 $12,900,000 $140,217

Nov-15 Courtyard St. Petersburg Saint Petersburg 128 $17,750,000 $138,672

Oct-15 Bay Harbor Hotel Tampa 257 $34,500,000 $134,241

Nov-15 Sheraton Riverwalk Tampa 277 $32,875,000 $118,682

Sep-15 Homewood Suites Bonita Springs 106 $11,500,000 $108,491

Oct-15 The Suites at Mainsail Village Tampa 360 $39,000,000 $108,333

Jun-16 Hampton Inn & Suites Sarasota 108 $11,215,200 $103,844

Dec-15 Doubletree Tampa 489 $40,000,000 $81,800

Apr-16 Sheraton Suites Tampa Airport Tampa 259 $19,950,000 $77,027

Page 14: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 14Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

U.S. Hotel Pipeline

130

165

130

175

166169

100

120

140

160

180

2015 2016

Num

ber

of

Ho

tels

In Construction Planning Final Planning

As of May 2016.

Source: Smith Travel Research.

Page 15: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 15Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Hotels Now Under Construction in Tampa Bay Area

Hotel City Class Open Date

Hyatt Place Lakewood Ranch Bradenton Upscale Q1 2017

Wyndham Grand Resort Clearwater Upper Upscale Q3 2017

Hampton Inn & Suites Clearwater Upper Midscale Q3 2017

Springhill Suites/Residence Inn Clearwater Upscale Q2 2017

Bay Esplanade Hotel Clearwater Upper Midscale Q1 2017

Entrada Clearwater Beach Clearwater Upper Midscale Q4 2016

Fenway Hotel Dunedin Upper Upscale Q2 2017

Hotel Sarasota Sarasota Upper Upscale Q2 2017

Westin Sarasota Sarasota Upper Upscale Q4 2016

Embassy Suites Sarasota Sarasota Upper Upscale Q2 2017

Hampton Inn Busch Gardens Tampa Upper Midscale Q3 2016

Hampton Inn Tampa Airport Tampa Upper Midscale Q3 2016

Holiday Inn Express Wesley Chapel Upper Midscale Q4 2016

Source: Lodging Development Group.

Page 16: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 16Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

New Supply in TPA / Westshore Area

N

Autograph at

Rocky Point South

Select service

hotel site

Possible Cambria

Hotel & Suites

Hampton at Avion

Relocation of

Airport Marriott

AC by Marrriott

at MetWest

Page 17: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 17Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

New Supply in Downtown Tampa Area

500-room luxury

hotel

Select service hotel

Ybor City

boutique hotel

N

Full service hotel,

Brandon Towne Center

Hampton Inn

Busch Gardens

Full-Service Hotel

Busch Gardens

Page 18: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 18Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Our Cracked Crystal Ball

Page 19: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 19Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

As We See It: The National Scene

■ As was the case in 2015, all of the annual “Cracked Crystal Ball” indicators that we follow are

trending positive:

• Commercial Rail (Forward Contracts)

• Luggage Sales

• Jet A Fuel Contracts

• Dry Cleaning & Laundry Institute

• Movie Theatre Ticket Sales

• Sleep in America Poll

■ Economists suggest that GDP will grow in 2017 and that the chances of a technical recession

remain very low.

■ Higher GDP growth in 2017 leads to higher ADR growth with improved flow-through to the

bottom line.

■ The U.S. lodging sector will continue to set records for profitability, but labor and insurance costs

are taking their toll.

■ As interest rates rise – and they will – there will be fewer dollars available for capital expenditures.

Page 20: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 20Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

As We See It: The Local Scene

■ Hillsborough and Pinellas demand (occupancy) has picked pick up nicely in

the past year, although the rate of growth is slowing. We believe there will be

positive growth for at least two more years, ending when significant new

supply hits the market.

■ Group pace at individual properties is strong for the next two to three years.

City-wide group pace is strong, but is not growing as fast as is that of

individual area hotels.

■ Group will play a larger role in Pinellas in the coming years.

■ Average Daily Rate is finally growing at a faster pace due mainly to group

business at individual hotels. Hotels benefitting from enhanced flow-through.

■ We expect RevPAR for upper upscale hotels in the Tampa Bay Area to

increase over 6.0% in 2017 and 4.5% in 2018.

Page 21: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 21Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

As We See It: The Local Scene

■ We will see several more investors from outside the region invest here, as the

lack of attractive opportunities in gateway markets leads them to shift their

focus to “A” properties in “B” markets.

■ Over the next two to three years, both Hillsborough and Pinellas counties will

experience growth in room inventory above national or Florida levels.

■ Look for downtown St. Petersburg to attract at least one other group-

oriented hotel in the next two years.

■ The effects of the Zika virus will be limited as efforts are underway to

address the issue head-on.

Page 22: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Page 22Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview

Question & Answer

For copies of this presentation,

please email your request to:

[email protected]

Page 23: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

Corporate Headquarters: One North Dale Mabry Highway, Suite 1000, Tampa, Florida 33609

Telephone: 1-813-932-1234

www.tpghotels.com

Page 24: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

HCHMA 17th Annual Trends & Forecasting Forum

Karrie Keen, CHIA

Senior Operations Analyst

[email protected]

Page 25: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

• Total U.S. Review

• Comparative Markets

• Florida Markets

• Tampa/St. Petersburg

• Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties

• 2016 / 2017 Forecast

Agenda

Page 26: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Total U.S. Review

Page 27: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

RevPAR Growth Continues to Slow

% Change

• Hotels 54 k

• Room Supply 1.8 bn 1.4%

• Room Demand 1.2 bn 2.0%

• Occupancy 65.5% 0.6%

• ADR $122.04 3.6%

• RevPAR $79.91 4.3%

• Room Revenue $146 bn 5.7%

Total US - Key Statistics Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

Page 28: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Demand Growth Slows while Supply Growth Ticks Up to 1.4%

1.4%

2.0%

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10Supply % Change Demand % Change

Feb ’11 7.8% June ’89

5.3%

Sept ’09 -7.1%

Aug ’06 -0.2%

Jan ’89 4.6%

Mar ’02 -4.7%

Oct ’91 -0.9%

Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to June 2016

Page 29: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

0.6%

3.6%

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10Occ % Chg ADR % Chg

June ’91 -3.4%

Jan ’92 0.1%

Mar ’02 -6.7%

Aug ’02 -4.5%

Oct ’06 7.5%

Sept ’09 -9.7%

Jan ’10 -8.8%

Feb ’11 6.3%

ADR Growth Softening Occupancy Growth Decelerating

Total United States Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to June 2016

Page 30: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

RevPAR Weakening Due to Moderate ADR Growth and Minimal Occupancy Growth

4.3%

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

Oct ’09 -16.8%

June ’06 9.3%

June ’02 -10.2%

Jan ’01 6.6%

Oct ’91 -2.6%

June ’11 8.5%

Total United States RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to June 2016

Page 31: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

0.8

3.8

3.0

4.9

8.0

1.4

2.0

0.6

3.6

4.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR

2015 2016

Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

Supply Growth Coupled with Slowing Demand and ADR Hinders Occupancy and RevPAR Growth

Page 32: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Weaker Transient ADR Growth -> Depressed 2016 ADR

2.6

2.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Demand % Change ADR % Change

Transient Demand and ADR % Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 2012 to June 2016

Page 33: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Group Demand Growth Slows Rapidly

0.6

3.3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Demand % Change

ADR % Change

Group Demand and ADR % Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 2012 to June 2016

Page 34: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Comparative Markets

Page 35: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Booming Supply in TX Tampa Only Market with Zero 12mo Supply Growth

0.5

2.9

0.0

1.4

0.6

2.6

7.1

3.9

1.7

3.8

1.9

3.1

2.1

3.2

5.3

6.6

-3.0

0.6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Phoenix, AZ FortLauderdale,

FL

Tampa/StPetersburg,

FL

Kansas City,MO-KS

Charlotte,NC-SC

Nashville,TN

Austin, TX Houston, TX SanAntonio, TX

Supply Demand

Supply / Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

Page 36: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Poor Houston! Supply / Demand Imbalance Nashville Reporting the Highest ADR Growth

3.2

-1.0

3.1

0.6

2.5 2.6

-0.5

-6.7

-1.0

0.6

4.4

5.9 6.0 5.3

7.3

4.4

-0.1

2.7

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Phoenix, AZ FortLauderdale,

FL

Tampa/StPetersburg,

FL

Kansas City,MO-KS

Charlotte,NC-SC

Nashville,TN

Austin, TX Houston, TX SanAntonio, TX

Occ ADR

Occupancy / ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

Page 37: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Despite Falling Occupancy in Houston Still Mediocre Ft. Lauderdale Wins Out with the Highest ADR

66.8

77.7 71.5

64.8 71.8 74.5 73.3

65.8 64.8

$120.95

$138.71

$118.88

$98.04 $103.63

$130.80 $137.52

$107.98 $107.85

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Phoenix, AZ FortLauderdale,

FL

Tampa/StPetersburg,

FL

Kansas City,MO-KS

Charlotte,NC-SC

Nashville,TN

Austin, TX Houston, TX SanAntonio, TX

Occ ADR

Absolute Occupancy / ADR Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

Page 38: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Rate Growth Drives RevPAR Growth in Most Markets

3.9 3.4

9.1

6.7

8.0

10.1

3.9

-6.8

1.7

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Phoenix, AZ FortLauderdale,

FL

Tampa/StPetersburg,

FL

Kansas City,MO-KS

Charlotte,NC-SC

Nashville,TN

Austin, TX Houston, TX SanAntonio, TX

RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

Page 39: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Florida Markets

Page 40: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Florida Keys Experiencing Strong Supply Growth Daytona Beach Leads Demand Growth

0.9 0.8

5.8

0.2

2.9

0.2 0.6

0.3

4.1

0.5 1.0

0.0

3.3

5.9

3.6

1.9

1.3

1.9

2.5

3.5

1.1

3.5

1.3

-0.7

3.1

1.6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7Supply Demand

Supply / Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

Page 41: Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview...Tampa Bay Area Lodging Investment Overview Page 3 TPG Background Founded in 1993, specializing exclusively in hospitality real estate throughout

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Occupancy Growth Mixed All Markets Except Miami Growing Rate

4.9

2.8

-3.6

1.2

-1.0

2.4 2.8

0.8

-0.6

0.8

-1.7

3.1

-1.7

5.7

2.9 2.7 2.9

4.4

3.0

5.8

7.7

0.1

4.8

3.2

5.9

1.9

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10Occ ADR

Occupancy / ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

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The Keys Report a Significant ADR Premium

60.6 62.8 76.4

60.3 77.7

70.0 69.4 64.6 77.5 75.9

68.6 71.5 72.5

$107.23 $120.83

$268.94

$112.19

$138.71 $147.53

$102.15 $101.29

$193.27

$114.71

$137.43 $118.88

$166.74

0

50

100

150

200

250

300 Occ ADR

Absolute Occupancy / ADR Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

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Tampa/St. Petersburg

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Healthy Growth in Tampa

% Change

• Hotels 450

• Room Supply 16.3 mn 0.0%

• Room Demand 11.6 mn 3.1%

• Occupancy 71.5% 3.1%

• ADR $118.88 5.9%

• RevPAR $84.97 9.1%

• Room Revenue $1.4 bn 9.1%

Tampa/St. Petersburg, FL - Key Statistics Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

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Supply / Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

S: 2.0% D: 2.5%

S: -1.2% D: 5.5%

S: -4.1% D: 2.5%

S: 1.0% D: 3.4%

S: 0.0% D: 3.1%

S: 0.4% D: 2.8%

S: -1.2% D: 1.8%

Tarpon Springs/North Shore Limited Supply – Not as Bad as it Looks

North/Busch Gardens Reporting the Highest Demand

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Occupancy / ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

Occ: 3.1% ADR: 5.9%

Occ: 6.7% ADR: 7.0%

Occ: 6.9% ADR: 4.9%

Occ: 0.4% ADR: 3.7%

Occ: 2.4% ADR: 5.4%

Occ: 2.3% ADR: 6.7%

Occ: 3.1% ADR: 8.5%

Healthy ADR Growth Across the Market

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Absolute Occupancy / ADR Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

Occ: 71.5% ADR: $118.88

Occ: 65.7% ADR: $89.72

Occ: 62.5% ADR: $90.09

Occ: 74.4% ADR: $130.66

Occ: 69.9% ADR: $145.58

Occ: 75.9% ADR: $125.22

Occ: 73.2% ADR: $92.12

Rooms Full 3 Out of 5 Nights Highest Rates in St. Petersburg

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Polar Opposite – Why?

1.4

6.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Demand % Change ADR % Change

Transient Demand and ADR % Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 2012 to June 2016

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While ADR Growth Follows a Similar Pattern Not As Volatile

1.8 2.8

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Demand % Change ADR % Change

Group Demand and ADR % Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 2012 to June 2016

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Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties

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Double Digit RevPAR Growth Driven by ADR Growth Supply Growth Not an Issue

% Change

• Hotels 169

• Room Supply 7.8 mn -0.5%

• Room Demand 5.7 m 2.8%

• Occupancy 73.5% 3.3%

• ADR $110.35 7.2%

• RevPAR $81.05 10.8%

• Room Revenue $633.5 mn 10.3%

Hillsborough County, FL - Key Statistics Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

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Higher Rates in Pinellas County Yet Less Supply and Absolute Occupancy

% Change

• Hotels 236

• Room Supply 7.0 mn 0.2%

• Room Demand 4.9 mn 2.3%

• Occupancy 70.7% 2.1%

• ADR $135.32 4.9%

• RevPAR $95.71 4.9%

• Room Revenue $665.7 mn 7.3%

Pinellas County, FL - Key Statistics Twelve Month Moving Average June 2016

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Similar Yet Different Supply Cycles

9.6%

6.5%

-0.5%

2.7%

-5.8%

0.2%

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Hillsborough Pinellas

Hillsborough & Pinellas County, FL Room Supply Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to June 2016

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Like Demand Patterns yet… Higher Demand in Hillsborough

2.8%

2.3%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Hillsbourgh Pinellas

Hillsborough & Pinellas County, FL Room Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to June 2016

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3.3% 2.1%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15Hillsborough Pinellas

Occupancy Follows along the Same Demand Trend

Hillsborough & Pinellas County, FL Occupancy Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to June 2016

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7.2

4.9

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15Hillsborough Pinellas

Very Comparable Rate Trend… Hillsborough Steeper Decline at Times

Hillsborough & Pinellas County, FL ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to June 2016

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Consecutive Months of Positive RevPAR Growth 30 Hillsborough / 66 Pinellas

10.7

7.1

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25 Hillsborough Pinellas

Hillsborough & Pinellas County, FL RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to June 2016

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2016 / 2017 Forecast

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Supply Growth Continues While Demand Growth Slows

Outlook

2016 Forecast

2017 Forecast

Supply 1.7% 1.9%

Demand 2.1% 1.9%

Occupancy 0.4% 0.0%

ADR 4.0% 3.8%

RevPAR 4.4% 3.8%

Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2016 - 2017

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Demand Growth Continues as ADR Growth Loses Speed

Outlook

2016 Forecast

2017 Forecast

Supply 1.3% 1.4%

Demand 1.3% 1.8%

Occupancy 0.0% 0.4%

ADR 5.3% 3.5%

RevPAR 5.3% 3.9%

Tampa-St Petersburg, FL Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2016 - 2017

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Thank You!

© 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

Karrie Keen

[email protected]