Takoma Junction Development Business Partner Report

Takoma Junction Development Anna Jurs 9 May 2014

ABSTRACT Takoma Park released a Request for Proposals (RFP) on January 22nd, 2014 to redevelop a series of city owned lots in the heart of the historic commercial district Takoma Junction. The site is intended for mixed use development that enhances community assets, preserves transportation infrastructure and amenities, attracts economic investment and responds to context. Through pre-planning community outreach, four potential commercial tenants and development partners were identified and listed in the RFP—the Takoma Park Silver Spring Food Co-op, the Ability Project, Takoma Children’s School and the Paint Branch Montessori School. Using ArcGIS analysis, this report aims to make recommendations based on spatial, demographic and business data, existing assets and cultural research as to which potential partner is most ideal for the proposed space. Takoma Junction is located on the border of Takoma Park and Washington, D.C. in Montgomery County, Maryland. Takoma Park is considered part of the Greater District of Columbia Metropolitan area.


TAKOMA PARK, MARYLAND The City of Takoma Park is a unique city rooted in the greater District of Columbia metropolitan area. Recognized as one of the first railroad accessible suburbs of the US capital, the city holds historic significance and works to retain historic landmarks and uphold the values of its founder through growth and modernization.1 Takoma Park began in 1883 as a community development experiment of B.F. Gilbert. An investor and small scale developer from New York, Gilbert purchased 83 acres of a family farm on which he hoped to “carve a unique community.”2 The city was to be founded on the ideals of the temperance movement, the precursor to the Prohibition, and aimed to take lifestyle cues from the pure and virgin landscape. Upon visiting the undeveloped land for the first time, one of Gilbert’s associates suggested giving the city the name Tacoma as the term meant “high up, near heaven,” a testament to the innate beauty of the landscape.2 Adopting the name, Takoma experienced success in its youth. Attracted by the refreshing contrast to the dirty cityscape and perils of urban life, politicians and businessmen from Washington, D.C. began settling in the woodland paradise.1 To further brand the fledgling city, Gilbert added Park to the city name, calling upon the natural assets of the land to sell homes and encourage investment. Takoma Park grew quickly. Incorporated in 1890 by Maryland, the city grew to be the biggest in Montgomery County by 1913. Seventh Day Adventist Church established world headquarters in Takoma Park in 1904, quickly building community facilities including a hospital and university.1 A large vegetarian population continued to value temperate tenets and formed simplicity circles focused on living well but not excessively.2 The city’s political activism became a national model when in 1960 Mayor Sam Abbott successfully campaigned against the construction of a highway in favor of installing a Metrorail line. Subsequent activist movements—declaring the city nuclear free and a sanctuary city, adopting environmental policies, passing provisions to retain trees above a certain height—coupled with an influx of Buddhist, midwife and yoga practitioner population caused the nation to apply titles to the city such as “the Berkley of the East” or “the People’s Republic of Takoma Park.”1 Takoma Park continues to represent progressive communities and relaxed culture. The government takes a very liberal approach to civic rights, allowing non-U.S. residents, non-incarcerated felons and peoples age 16 and 17 to vote in municipal elections. A large portion of Takoma Park is registered as a Historic District, including Takoma Junction, and many of the original buildings still stand. The majority of businesses in Takoma Park are independent and local, some relying on cooperative ownership.2 Hoping to maintain a small city feel inside a growing metropolis, Old Takoma Business Association launched a Main Street program focused on improvements and historic classifications to maintain the existing character of market streets through economic changes and new development.2 The city is densely populated with a 91.7% occupancy rate.1 Montgomery County Schools are regarded as some of the best in the nation. Multiple universities, business districts and recreation facilities fall within a four mile radius of the city. Well connected by public transit to Washington, D.C. and neighboring communities, Takoma Park continues to be culturally relevant and desirable. TAKOMA JUNCTION Takoma Junction is a historic commercial district in Takoma Park. The Junction consists of about 20 businesses clustered about a local treasure, the B.Y. Morrison pocket park.3 The park is the iconic center of the district and carries significant cultural weight. Benjamin Yeo Morrison was one of the first residents of Takoma Park and a horticultural pioneer. After graduating Harvard with a BA in landscape architecture, he became the first director of the National Arboretum and invented the Glen Dale azalea, a particularly hearty azalea. A well loved and recognized mural inside the park pavilion painted by local artist James Colwell displays a jazz club scene commemorating Morrison’s love for music. It is said that Morrison had a lovely baritone, wrote an opera libretto and preformed lieder concerts fairly regularly.4 The park anchors a prominent corner in the commercial district. Residents cherish the park and mural to the point that regular touch ups are completed to ensure vibrancy. Takoma Junction is part of the larger commercial district Old Takoma. Old Takoma crosses the border between Washington, D.C. and Takoma Park. The area hosts regular events including art fairs, vintage markets and holiday celebrations. The Old Takoma Business Association works with residents and businesses in the area to enhance storefronts, recruit more business and retain street character.2 Daily traffic on main roads in the area hover between 8,000 and 10,000 drivers a day. This traffic combined with pedestrian traffic from public transit provide a strong customer base.3 A Capital Bikeshare station located near the center of the business district provides bike commuter traffic and ensures a broad visitor base. Already beginning to thrive and redevelop, Takoma Park is looking to grow Takoma Junction and is calling for proposals to stimulate growth by converting a series of city owned parcels into mixed use and residential development.


DEVELOPMENT SITE The site proposed for development in the Takoma Park RFP is in the heart of Takoma Junction, covering Lots 33-37 along the commercial road and Lot 39 on Columbia Avenue. With 53,493 square feet, the site can support substantial commercial and residential development. Both sites are within walking distance of neighboring Silver Spring Central Business District, public transit, Washington Adventist Hospital, three universities, Silgo Creek hiker-biker trail and other amenities. Dense residential development surrounds the Takoma Junction historic district, providing a strong base of consumers and community support. While in an ideal location, each site presents different strengths, opportunities and contextual considerations for new construction. LOTS 33-37 Seated on the south side of Ethan Allen Avenue, Lots 33-37 front the intersection of Ethan Allen Ave. (MD 410), Carroll Ave. (MD 195), and Grant Ave. opposite B.Y.

Morrison Park, several independent businesses and a gas station. Bordered by a grocery co-op, medical practice and auto repair shop, the site is currently used as the primary public parking lot for Takoma Junction with 56 parking spaces.3 While within a historic district, none of the adjacent buildings qualify for historic registration. The majority of the block’s commercial buildings do not exceed two story heights and have simple façades. The site is extremely well connected by four bus lines that connect to bordering municipalities and transit stations stopping directly in front of the parcels, the Takoma Metro station less than a mile away and a Capital Bikeshare station hub on the property. At the intersection of two state routes and only three miles from Capital Beltway, Lots 33-37 can be reached easily by vehicular traffic. The Silgo Creek hiker-biker trail meanders less than a half mile north of the site, providing access to the Anacostia Tributary Trail System serving Prince George’s County and parts of Montgomery County and Washington, D.C.5 Any future development of these lots requires significant input from the surrounding businesses and local business coalitions. Two such entities exist and have been involved in previous area planning: Old Takoma Business Association (OTBA) and the Takoma Junction Task Force (TJTA). OTBA is the primary body guiding development in Takoma Junction. The organization runs a main street program dedicated to maintaining historic buildings, small town character and commercial stability. The organization focuses on community revitalization and commercial vitality by running programming, enhancing curbside appeal and engaging community stakeholders. TJTA is a task force formed in 2010 to analyze the Takoma Junction commercial district to complete a rudimentary SWOT analysis and asset mapping. The resulting report, the Community Report, has not yet been recognized officially by the City of Takoma Park. Both OTBA and TJTA have heavy influence in the neighborhood and should be respected as a consult and partner for plans and physical development. Neighboring businesses will be the most critical collaborators for any new construction. All stores depend on Lots 33-37 as a primary parking facility. The most urgent question from them will be how new development will maintain parking amenities for car-based customers. Plans for the space require concerted efforts to maintain, even increase, parking opportunities. Most importantly, partnerships and collaborative efforts should be forged with immediate commercial neighbors: Takoma Park Silver Spring Food Co-op (TPSS) to the east and Takoma Auto Clinic repair shop to the west. Takoma Auto Clinic has a private parking lot separating the building from the shared property line. Contrastingly, TPSS directly borders the site with a loading bay fed from the rear of the lot. TPSS relies on the lot for customer parking. Access to the loading bay is vital for TPSS deliveries and cannot be blocked. The lots are zoned as CRT 0.75, Commercial/Residential Town with a 0.75 floor area ratio. In essence, this calls for mixed use development that dedicates 25% of the plot to residential, 50% to commercial business and the remaining 25% to no structure. The building cannot exceed 45 feet in height, two to three stories, and must reflect the context. LOT 39


Lot 39 is a triangular parcel at about 19,500 square feet. Currently densely wooded, the parcel slopes steeply south toward Washington, D.C. This parcel is zoned R60, residential not to exceed 35 feet in height. The zoning is essentially equivalent to single family residential zoning in other municipalities. Building footprints cannot exceed 35% of the lot area. The site terminates into the rear of the Takoma Park Fire Department to the west, runs along parking lots and Lots 33-37 to the north and other residential development to the south and east. Any development will require assessing existing vegetation to determine if any trees should be saved. Permitting to fell trees will be necessary. LAND USE SUMMARY There are 33,993 square feet available in Lots 33-37 for mixed use development. Of the 33,993 square feet available, 8,498 square feet are dedicated to residential building footprint and 25,495 square feet is dedicated to commercial building footprints. There is no stipulation regarding parking structures specified, but will be assumed to be part of the commercial building footprint. The buildings can be two to three stories high but must adhere to the Old Takoma Business Association’s rules for new development in a historic district. There are 19,500 square feet available for residential development on Lot 39. The building footprint can only cover 6,825 square feet.

COMMERCIAL PARTNERS Takoma Park has identified four potential commercial partners interested in purchasing space as a tenant or owner upon development completion. Those identified include Takoma Park Silver Spring Food Co-op (TPSS), Paint Branch Montessori School, Takoma Children’s School and The Ability Project. TAKOMA PARK SILVER SPRINGS FOOD CO-OP (TPSS) Takoma Park Silver Springs Food Co-op is the only identified potential retail partner. TPSS was established in 1981 as a membership based health food retailer. In 1998 the co-op grew out of its retail space and moved to the current location, 201 Ethan Allen Ave. 6 The TPSS store has a 5,500 square foot sales floor which adequately keeps up with current customer demand. The co-op acts as a major grocery for surrounding neighborhoods and draws health conscious consumers in the region. The store supports community programming, offering weekly story-time and health classes and coordinating holiday events. TPSS hopes to expand the store, requesting an ideal amount of 10,000 square feet of retail space and 7,500 square feet for supportive spaces—community room, restrooms, offices, etc. With this additional space, TPSS plans to “provide broader product mix with a wider variety of price points, create a store that is committed to responsible energy use and conservation and provide a new space that will allow TPSS to sponsor regular community programs that will continue to foster a strong co-op and community relationship.” 6 Due to community loyalty, strong sales and inherent values consistent with Takoma Park’s founding values, development on Lots 33-37 should incorporate space dedicated to TPSS. However, extending the storefront will create a monotonous wall of glazing with few shops to access,


a design that would stand inconsistent with the mom-and-pop feel of Takoma Junction. Expanding the store westward may be best to expand southwest set back from the sidewalk to allow additional retail space for small shops or offices. Development of the site will displace customer parking while increasing demand. Inevitably some parking structure or other surface parking will be required to support dense development. Currently, TPSS has access to 56 parking space in the public lot and 21 spaces in the TPSS parking lot. Assuming TPSS gains double the floor space, then their customer base and employee count will also increase significantly causing demand for more parking. In all, TPSS would need 17,500 square feet of building space, leaving 7,995 square feet for additional development, and about 20,000 in parking. The retail space should continue from the existing store to make a continuous retail floor plan. Supportive spaces, especially those that are strictly for community groups and activities, can be on a second floor or sub-level. This configuration would leave 15,495 square feet for additional commercial space, a much more favorable use ratio. PAINT BRANCH MONTESSORI SCHOOL Paint Branch Montessori School currently has a site in Silver Spring, immediately northwest of Takoma Park, at 10309 New Hampshire Avenue. The site is a heavily wooded five acre plot. Classrooms take advantage of the woodland view with glazed façades facing the woods, bird feeders and student maintained gardens. Tuition for a single child ranges between $10,000 and $15,000 with full and partial scholarships available. 7 A priority is placed on a connection with the outdoors and learning by doing. The school works to “aid children in their own natural development” through a curriculum engaging physical, emotional and cognitive skills. 7 Core classes include language arts, geography, art, mathematics, music, physical education, history, science and Spanish while extra-curricular activities focus on cultural enrichment. Class sizes hover around 20 students to one teacher. Adult education is also offered for parents of enrolled students, fostering community growth in addition to student education. Montessori schools mandate that if an outdoor teaching environment is possible it should be included. Development for Paint Branch would require planning gardening and outdoor classrooms for each class. Development for Paint Branch should focus classrooms along the southern edge of Lots 33-37 facing wooded Lot 39, perhaps with direct outdoor access. Planning development of the entire facility on the southwestern corner of Lots 33-37 would This would also take any drop off or pick up of children off the main road, therefore increasing safety. Limited parking would be required, namely reserved for staff. Capacity at Paint Branch Montessori allows primary classes (pre-kindergarten and kindergarten) for children age two to six at a ratio of 12 students to one teacher and elementary classes covering grades 1 through 6 at a ratio of 20 students to one teacher. About 55-60 students are enrolled each year, significantly less than full capacity, with six full time faculty. As Paint Branch Montessori School can limit the number of students enrolled, hypothetically any square footage would suffice. However, in “A Sense of Timeless Beauty: Designing Facilities for Montessori Programs” published by the Montessori Foundation, the minimum classroom size allots 35 square feet per student enrolled. While 35 is the minimum allowed by the Foundation, ideal sizes are much higher. Montessori would like to see 50 square feet per student for primary classes and 75 square feet per student for elementary classes.8 With current enrollment, Paint Branch Montessori would require a minimum of 2,100 square feet, a maximum of 3,800 square feet for classroom space. These amounts do not include support space including offices, restrooms, maintenance closets and other similar necessary interior spaces. However, a typical Montessori facility has a relatively continuous teaching allowing functional flexibility. Students pack their lunches or lunches are provided, but considering the small size of the school no large dining space is necessary. We will assume that at least 1,500 additional square feet are required for restrooms, offices, storage, lockers and other similar school necessities. This brings the totals to 3,600 and 5,300 square feet respectively. The classrooms do not need to be on the same floor. In this setting, it might be more useful and save space to have a primary classroom stacked above the elementary classrooms or vice versa. This would free up space for additional commercial use. TAKOMA CHILDREN’S SCHOOL Takoma Children’s School is a highly sought after year round preschool with a capacity of 42 students. With extremely low student to teach ratios between 1:4 and 1:10, Takoma Children’s School offers extensive high quality educational programming that extends beyond

Square Feet Remaining for Further Development Minimum Sq. Ft Maximum Sq. Ft One Floor Two Floors One Floor Two Floors

TPSS 7,995 15,495 - -


Paint Branch 21,895 23,095 20,195 21,962


the preschool classroom to families. The school is currently located at 6925 Willow Street NW in Washington, D.C. Tuition fees range depending on how frequently a child attends, ranging from $880 to $1,635 with financial assistance available for families with financial need. The school is open from 8:00 am to 6:00 pm with half day options. Curriculum focuses on skill building using an individual child’s interests. Children develop social and problem solving skills through self-dependence during routine tasks and independent decision making.9 Takoma Children’s School has a unique characteristic that would make a nearness to TPSS an asset. The school has incredibly strict food policies for all students. Unhealthy food is not given to students and there are regulations on what parents or guardians are allowed to pack. Being near TPSS who places a premium on healthy, local, organic foods could provide opportunities to collaborate on workshops, catering, or other partnerships, enhancing the financial stability of TPSS and providing a health foods location for parents who might not be aware of where to purchase allowable foods. Also, the school has long relied on fundraising with the local businesses and community to develop operational sustaining funds, including restaurants, educational businesses and Takoma Foundation. Being surrounded by an invested and strong community and business district would be advantageous for Takoma Children’s School to develop further fundraising relationships. Assuming that the school would like to retain around the same number of students, calculations will be made to accommodate 50 children. There are no existing design standards for Takoma Children’s School. It can be assumed that, due to the cost and caliber of education, the same guidelines that are used for Montessori Foundation Facilities are similar to those considered ideal for Takoma Children’s School. The same values will be used for analysis. With 42 students, the school would require 1,750 square feet minimum, 2,500 maximum for the classroom alone. As the school serves fewer students we will assume less storage and support space, adding only 1,000 square feet to each total. It is not ideal to partition the school by floor as it is likely to be one large classroom with several teachers. The school, however, could benefit from outdoor classroom space. Development of Takoma Children’s School could be focused along the southern edge of the lot to take advantage of the wooded lot to the south or could encircle a private courtyard. This second option may be more ideal as it would limit chances of a child wandering off site. THE ABILITY PROJECT The Ability Project is an institution that works to build independent and full lives for developmentally disabled. The organization grew out of the growing need to help adults with developmental or intellectual disabilities to transition into adulthood and find a place in the community. The Ability Project is one of the only organizations that offers full life assistance from job placement to help finding permanent lodging. Formally organized in September 2013, the Ability Project is young. Developing a facility specifically designed for the organization would be a risk as there is no prior evidence of longevity or business sustainability. The organization currently depends on federal dollars but is run as a collective.10 The Ability Project is looking for a home that would provide a large range of services for clients within a reasonable commuting distance by foot or by public transit. Lots 33-37 and Lot 39 are ideal locations for head quarters development as it is well connected by public transit and has associations and ordinances in place to ensure walkability. Additionally, a primary errand to the grocery store would be conveniently nearby if The Ability Project and TPSS partnered corporately. The organization would like to be close to available housing in order to quickly find housing for clients. This requirement presents an opportunity to tie Lots 33-37 and Lot 39 together with one development. The Ability Project could develop limited housing on Lot 39 for clients or could rent units in the residential development for stabilizing income. The ideal facility suggested by the Ability Project would resemble a campus with a social center, lounge, food service, party room, recreation space, administrative offices and classrooms. Due to the amount and variability of programming requested, it is unclear how many square feet would be required. As client numbers fluctuate and clients do not live in the facility, the offices and supporting spaces could be minimalistic. However, as the Ability Project acts as a meeting hub for the disabled community, larger, more flexible space would likely be used and appreciated. Development on this scale would significantly reduce the amount of available square footage for additional commercial development unless it utilized multiple stories. It is recommended that, if developed, Ability Project facilities use multiple floors limiting the impact on the commercial building footprint. COMMERCIAL PARTNER SUMMARY


Takoma Children’s School 22,745 - 21,995 -


Identified partners are very different in type, needed square footage and the kind and number of people they would attract to the neighborhood. TPSS will definitely receive space. This limits the use of allotted commercial square footage to either 7,995 or 15,495 square feet for development footprints. This does not include any parking structures. Parking structures would not fit well with the desired historic district aesthetic. Combined with the limited square footage, it is recommended that further study be conducted on the site to determine the appropriateness of underground parking. Limited surface parking could be offered using the 25% of unbuildable space, particularly angled street parking, however much more will be necessary. Both Paint Branch Montessori School and Takoma Children’s School are good candidates for Takoma Junction as the bring in parents and families that may stay to experience the business district after school. The Ability Project would increase community members permanently. This could strengthen the local economy. Both schools would attract customers for TPSS as parents drop off or pick up children. All three potential partners could capitalize on nearness to TPSS using catering, space or community support services. The Takoma Junction site is not as ideal for Paint Branch Montessori School as for Takoma Children’s School. Paint Branch currently has a large facility with ample outdoor space. The school would lose naturalistic appeal moving to a more urban setting. However, opening a new branch might attract new customers who prefer to educate their children in an urbanized setting. Takoma Children’s School serves fewer students within a smaller age range. This would require less space and less parking. The Ability Project could make use of vacant properties or newly constructed units. This could enliven pockets of Takoma Park that are not densely populated. The Ability Project is the only development partner that would make consistent use of available multi-modal transit including public transportation and Capitol Bikeshare. Nearness to secondary institutions would also benefit The Ability Project over any other commercial partner. DEMOGRAPHICS AND MARKET STRENGTH For the purposes of this study, 30, 10 and 5 minute drive time service areas were used to analyze demographic, market and distribution data. A 5 minute service area was assumed as the strongest base for customers of retail businesses. 10 minutes is the furthest someone would reasonably drive regularly for groceries. 30 minutes is considered a reasonable base of customers for a highly sought after school, particularly surrounding an urban center like Washington, D.C. All drive time service areas were created using SNAD83 State Plane Maryland FIPS 1900 projection to be accurate to Takoma Park. All analysis was completed with the aid of ArcGIS and Microsoft Excel using available Census and American Community Survey data at the lowest level possible for each category. Age, sex, race, housing and population data was analyzed at the block level using 2010 American Community Survey data for the 5 and 10 minute service areas. Disability density was analyzed using 2000 American Community Survey data at the block group level for all three drive time areas. Data was joined to spatial files in GIS, clipped and reduced depending on the size of the clipped block or block groups to represent proportional data. Hot spot analysis was run in ArcGIS to determine the spatial clustering of age, population, housing and disability data. Hot spot analysis considers how data is distributed versus a randomly distributed set of the same data over the same size area. The output includes a GiZ Score. GiZ Scores represent locations of high and low densities compared to what is expected in a random dataset. Lower values presented in blue represent areas of low densities that are statistically significant while high values presented in red represent areas of high density that are statistically significant. Business Analyst Online provided by ESRI Press was used to provide market strength, additional demographics, and nearby businesses for all three service areas. A summary of all pertinent attributes is provided on the following page and will be referenced throughout the demographic and market analysis portion of this report. Also provided are maps of the density and hot spots for child, housing, disability and population density. Use these as a reference as they are discussed in the analysis.


SERVICE AREA ATTRIBUTE SUMMARY 5 Minute 10 Minute 30 Minute POPULATION

Total Population 173,039 609,349 3,644,713

% White 29.1% 46.3% 48.0% % Black 46.0% 36.3% 31.0%

% American Indian 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% % Asian 3.9% 6.3% 10.1%

% Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% % Other 18.3% 12.9% 6.7%

% Age 0-4 7.5% 6.4% 6.5%

% Age 0-14 18.2% 16.2% 18.3%

Married Households 6,906 32,614 392,400 % of Total Households 9.9% 12.5% 25.8%

Unmarried Partner Households 1,391 6,767 61,970 % of Total Households 2.0% 2.6% 4.1%

Married and Partner Households per Square Mile 1,823 288 438

Population with a Disability 8,746 94,847 328,253 Population Age 5 to 21 with a Disability 975 8,780 35,304

HOUSING Count of Units 69,998 261,141 1,518,432

Occupancy Rate 93.0% 92.0% 93.4% Vacancy Rate 7.5% 8.6% 6.6%

Available Housing Units 183 11,490 66,811 INCOME AND SPENDING

Median Household Income $55,793 $56,207 $76,293 Projected Median Household Income for 2017 $67,411 $66,547 $86,423

<$10,000 5.3% 5.7% 5.3%

$10,000 - $25,000 11.7% 12.2% 8.6% $25,000 - $50,000 23.4% 25.4% 18.0% $50,000 - $75,000 18.5% 12.6% 17.5%

$75,000 - $100,000 10.5% 13.8% 13.5% $100,000 - $150,000 15.5% 13.8% 17.7% $150,000 - $200,000 9.3% 6.3% 8.9%

>$200,000 6.0% 5.4% 10.7%

2012 Median Disposable Income $44,275 $44,446 $57,015 Per Capita Income $31,408 $30,243 $41,699

COMPETING BUSINESSES Grocers 38 147 1,268

Specialty Food Stores 12 63 493

















LOCAL DEMOGRAPHICS SUMMARY The Takoma Junction site is rooted in a diverse community. Black is the predominant race with 46% in the 5 minute drive time area. Only 29% of the population is white. This is low compared to the 10 and 30 minute drive times which both have over 45% white population. This could speak to the inclusive nature of Takoma Park, aligning with founding values, or to socio-economic characteristics not currently analyzed. Children under age fourteen generally comprise less than 20% of the population, of which children under the age of 5 make up about a third. The rate of married coupes varies greatly between the 5, 10 and 30 minute drive time, values increasing as the study area increases. Household occupancy rates are high for the area with all service areas over 90% occupied. TAKOMA PARK SILVER SPRINGS FOOD CO-OP (TPSS) Values significant to the success of expanding TPSS are housing unit density, market potential and demand and competing businesses. Median expendable income is relatively high for all drive time areas, always above $44,000. For this reason, income level will not be analyzed. As mentioned previously, because TPSS has been a longtime Takoma Junction merchant, is directly adjacent to the site and is experiencing great success, it is recommended that TPSS be selected as a partner. However, an analysis of TPSS will be conducted to determine if the growth is warranted given the current market. As each housing unit is a potential customer, denser units represent a stronger customer base. As can be expected, housing density is highest in the urban core of Washington, D.C. Maryland blocks are statistically denser than expected only on the northwest border of Washington. Few blocks in the 5 minute drive time area have high housing density. High density blocks in the 10 minute drive time are clustered near the urban center. Ten minutes is a reasonable time to pick up groceries. As the density of both housing and population are high and statistically significant within the 10 minute drive time area, expansion is supported by housing density. Market potential is measured by ESRI Press Online Business Analyst as a market potential index (MPI) or percentage compared to the national demand average. For example, if a product is rated 95 then it has a demand 5% less in the study area than on average for the U.S. The MPI for produce, a critical product for TPSS as an organic foods store, is 100, 98 and 100 for the 5, 10 and 30 minute drive time areas respectively. These high rates suggest strong demand in the area. Other products commonly found at farmers’ markets and whole foods stores such as breads and dairy never dip below a rating of 97. High MPIs for these product suggest that demand for TPSS groceries would maintain store success through expansion. Although MPIs are high for individual products, supply and demand rates suggest expanding the store may not be supported by the local market. Within the 5 minute drive time area supply exceeds demand by over $30 million dollars. This high value coupled with 38 competing businesses falling within the study area discourage store expansion. However, if TPSS is considered an organic co-op providing healthy, local foods, the demand exceeds the supply in the 5 minute drive time area by $2 million. Generally TPSS would be classified as a grocer, however it may have an edge over other groceries given the relatively unique products. In the 10 minute service area, the demand for both groceries and specialty food stores exceed supply, by $80 million and $15 million respectively. These values support expanding TPSS much more than those of the 5 minute drive time area. Often the closest food store is the one most frequented by residents. With 220 competing businesses in the 10 minute drive time area, there would be stiff competition. Driving further distances for food is typically done for unique products or products of higher quality. TPSS likely has high quality goods than other grocers. The expansion would further diversify offerings in the store and may provide more opportunities to gain customers across a wider area. PAINT BRANCH MONTESSORI SCHOOL & TAKOMA CHILDREN’S SCHOOL Due to their similar services and market characteristic requirements, Paint Branch Montessori School and Takoma Children’s School market strength will be analyzed together. Values of significance for the success of either institution are child density, density of married or partner families and income level. Because both schools are non-traditional private schools, are sought after and have limited capacities, they would likely draw students regardless of other nearby institutions. Competing establishments will not be analyzed for either school. Child densities in the 5, 10 and 30 minute drive time areas do not cluster significantly near the Takoma Junction site. Block groups and blocks immediately surrounding the site rank low in densities. However, the fringes of the 5 minute drive time gain density as well as corridors extending through Washington, D.C. in the 10 minute drive time area. According to results from hot spot analysis, densities are statistically significant in Maryland block groups that border Washington, D.C. which bodes well for both schools.


Paint Branch Montessori School has a higher chance of success as students range in age from 2 to 12 versus 2 to 5 in Takoma Children’s School. The broader range of ages allows for more of the population to be eligible to enroll. Children age 0 to 4 consistently comprise around one third of the total population below age 15. Takoma Children’s School has one third less the customer base than Paint Branch. The percent of the population age 0 to 14 is stable between the 5 and 30 minute drive time areas. This suggests Paint Branch would have a local and broad customer base. The percent of the population age 0 to 4 reduces as the drive time area increases. This negative relationship suggests the local customer base would be stronger for Takoma Children’s School than the wider service area. It was assumed for this study that, given the high cost of education, families with two adults parents or guardians would be more apt to enroll children in either institution as there are two or more adults assumed to be capable of earning household income. According to the U.S. Department of Labor’s estimates for 2013, both parties are employed in 47.4% of families. It is reasonable to assume these families will have more expendable income to cover high education costs than those that have one employed party. Also, adults in relationships are more than twice as likely to have children than those that are single.11 Married or partner families are denser in the 5 minute drive time area at over 1,000 per square mile, versus under 500 for both the 10 and 30 minute drive time areas. This low rate of two parent families in the thirty minute area is concerning, but may not prove hazardous to either school’s business. Over 8,000 married or partner families live within the 5 minute drive time area alone, giving both schools ample opportunity for enrollment. Also, the densities being higher in the 5 minute drive time area supports siting a school in Takoma Junction. The demographic value with the most significance is by far annual household income and average disposable income. Paint Branch Montessori School has significantly high tuition than Takoma Children’s School and therefore will be analyzed separately. For the purposes of this study, it was assumed that households earning more than $75,000 could potentially afford Paint Branch. However, it is more likely that earning over $100,000 annually would spend $10,000 to $15,000 on tuition. Applying the earning rates to the number of married and partner family households, 230,820 households earn over $75,000 and 169,480 households earn over $100,000 in the 30 minute drive time area. These values are large enough to easily cover 60 student enrollment openings. For the purposes of this study, it was assumed that households with an income greater than $25,000 can could potentially afford Takoma Children’s School while households earning over $50,000 would be more apt to pay $1,000 each year. Applying these income rates to the number of married and partner households, 310,334 households earn over $50,000 and 392,121 households earn over $25,000, gaining over 100,000 households that can potentially afford the education than those that can afford Paint Branch. THE ABILITY PROJECT Values impacting the viability of The Ability Project are the rate of people with disabilities, access to public transportation, additional nearby autism and disability support services, access to retailers of home necessities, and available housing. Clients of the organization would likely relocate to participate in the program and to be part of the community. This presents a difficulty in determining how heavily to weight disability density. However, if the client requires more support than is typical, it is likely that the family would not want to live far from their child or sibling. For this reason disability density will still be analyzed. Income level also presents a difficulty as it is likely that parents would help support program participants, even if remotely. The Ability Project attempts to keep services affordable for all income ranges, also making it difficult to apply weighted analysis to local income. For this reason, income will not be analyzed to determine market strength for The Ability Project. Disabilities are not frequent in the population, never rising to a rate above 10%. Disabilities in the population age 5 to 21 remains below 2% for all drive time areas. These numbers do not readily appear to support a disability service center. However, raw numbers for the 30 minute drive time area show over 300,000 people with disabilities. Even if only 10% have a developmental or intellectual disorder and only 10% participate in the program, it would mean 3,000 clients for the organization. These numbers may be sustainable. However, that value represents the total population in the study area with a disability. It is more likely that clients would enter the program between the ages of 18 and 30, the age when many young adults and college students transition into independent adulthood. The population between the ages of 5 and 21 that will be entering that transitional phase is 1% for the 30 minute drive time area. The raw count of peoples comes to about 35,000. Taking the same percentage as before, if only 350 clients participated in the program, the program could still be viable. Further analysis of fees and costs to participate in the program would better determine the likelihood of success for the organization. As viewable in the disability maps, there appears to be a concentration of people with a disability to the south, east, and north of Takoma Junction. However, these are only statistically significant to the north and south. Within the 5 minute drive time service area, there is a significant concentration immediately north of Ethan Allen Avenue. This density so near the development site could bode well for the success of The Ability Project. The center of Washington, D.C. appears to have the highest statistically significant concentration of people with a disability. This concentration could be a viable client group as there is rail transit access between the heart of the city and Takoma Park.


The site is well connected to public transportation with several rail and bus options within short walking distances. Commuting to downtown Washington, D.C. and even into Arlington is easy using the Metro Transit system. For more active clients, Capitol Bikeshare and the Silgo Creek trail which connects to northern suburbs and the city are easily accessible. Mobility in this region is feasible without an automobile. Within the 30 minute drive time area, there are over 60 autism and disability support centers with services ranging from treatment to education to advocacy. Siting the organization in Takoma Junction would allow easy access to public transportation that connect to a range of services. Several specialized medical offices are located in Silver Spring, including quality of life and treatment services. No center with equivalent services to The Ability Project was found in the search. The Ability Project would offer unique disability support for the community and the greater metro area. A full range of retailers exist inside the 5 minute drive time service area, including personal health, food, home electronics and furnishings, and fashion retailers. A variety of medical professionals also maintain offices within the study area. Housing would be the biggest struggle for The Ability Project. Household occupancy rates are high for the area with all service areas over 90% occupied. This limits available housing for new community members, perhaps limiting options for The Ability Project clients. Of the available vacant housing, less than 5% is available to rent or purchase. This leaves a significant 328,258 housing units available in the 30 minute drive time area. However, this amount does not represent transit accessible units. Available housing within a ¼ mile walk to a bus or rail stop is 2,887 units. Assuming clients would like to be closer to the facility and therefore would not live as far as Virginia, the number of available units drops to 2,196. While seemingly high, this represents the units available for the entire population of Washington, D.C. and the greater metro area available to the entire population. Competition for housing is often stiff in densely populated cities. It would be smart for development in Takoma Junction for The Ability Project to include housing on the residential lot and in the mixed use development on Lots 33-37 to alleviate some housing stress.



CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Partnering with TPSS and Takoma Children’s School is recommended. TPSS has experienced success and is a longtime Takoma Junction merchant, making the store a valued asset for the community. Given the 10 minute drive time area demand for both grocers and specialty food stores and high MPIs for common sales products, expansion is recommended. However, as the 5 minute drive time demand was low and number of competing businesses rather high for such a short distance, expansion may need to decrease in sales floor area. An expansion tripling the current sales floor coverage may prove to be too large a risk. Square footage made available by reducing the amount dedicated to TPSS could be repurposed as rentable small retailers aiding in diversifying the business district and reviving Takoma Junction. Takoma Children’s School is recommended over Paint Branch Montessori as the school is affordable for a larger number of households. Also, the Takoma Junction site would force Paint Branch away from existing amenities that come with a five acre lot. It is recommended that Paint Branch Montessori remain at the current school site. Takoma Children’s School is recommended over The Ability Project as children will continue to be born while disability rate may decrease or demanded services may change. The school requires less square footage than The Ability Project, has demonstrated success and is likely to thrive. Also, as the school depends on local restaurants and businesses for financial support it would better integrate with local merchants and provide mutual support. However, it is recommended that a portion if not all of the remaining square footage be dedicated to The Ability Project. Takoma Junction is an ideal location for the organization given it’s connectivity, contribution of new community members, nearness to supporting services and ability to use adjacent housing development. These qualities make The Ability Project and attractive partner for development of the site. Both Takoma Children’s School and The Ability Project have present strong opportunities for partnership with TPSS through catering or asset and space sharing. Both also bring potential new customers for TPSS and would feed one another’s success.

Square Footage Breakdown

Minimum Sq. Ft Maximum Sq. Ft

Option 1 - One Floor Option 2 - Two Floors Option 3 - One Floor Option 4 - Two Floors

Building Footprint

Available Sq. Ft

Building Footprint

Available Sq. Ft

Building Footprint

Available Sq. Ft

Building Footprint

Available Sq. Ft

TPSS Food Co-op 17,500 7,995 10,000 15,495 17,500 7,995 10,000 15,495 Takoma Children’s School 2,750 5,245 2,750 12,745 3,500 4,495 3,500 11,995

The Ability Project 2,623 2,623 6,373 6,373 4,495 0 11,995 0 Parking or Other Retail 2,623 0 6,373 0 0 0 0 0

Above are proposed options to distribute commercial square footage. In Options 1 and 2, it was assumed that The Ability Project would only receive 50% of the remaining square footage to maintain space for parking. In Options 3 and 4 it was assumed that parking would be provided elsewhere or eliminated in favor of building dependency of alternative transportation modes. Options 3 and 4 would leave TPSS with only the existing spaces in the existing surface parking lot, a likely unreasonable choice for future development. Considering each new business would require some sort of parking, Options A and B are more reasonable choices. Of the two, it is recommended that Option 2 be used to guide development. TPSS would occupy two floors while Takoma Children’s School would occupy only the ground floor. With 6,373 square feet, The Ability Project may not need additional space. This would allow the majority of the second story to be dedicated to residential or office development. The additional square footage should be sufficient to hold limited surface parking or have an entrance to and underground garage. A portion of the parking or other retail square footage could go to an outdoor learning space for Takoma Children’s School as previously discussed. Option 2 presents more flexibility of ground floor space, perhaps allowing for additional storefronts along Ethan Allen Avenue to better align with Old Takoma Business Association. Future development in Lots 33-37 should focus on providing space for TPSS, Takoma Park Children’s School, The Ability Project, limited parking and one to two additional small storefronts. It is recommended that additional study be completed to determine what portion of the building footprint to dedicate to TPSS. Residential development in Lot 39 should partially provide housing for initial Ability Project clients as well as residential built on Lots 33-37. Remaining housing could be owned by the businesses occupying the ground floor providing additional income during start-up.


1 The City of Takoma Park. www.takomaparkmd.gov. Accessed 6 May 2014. 2 Old Takoma Business Association. www.mainstreettakoma.org. Accessed 7 May 2014. 3 City of Takoma Park, Maryland Request for Proposals- Takoma Junction Site. 22 January 2014. 4 City of Takoma Park. www.takomapark.info. Accessed 7 May 2014. 5 Prince George’s County Department of Parks and Recreation. Part of the Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission. http://www.pgparks.com/Your_Parks/Trails/Anacostia_Tributary_Trail_System.htm. Accessed 14 May 2014. 6 Takoma Park Silver Springs Food Co-op. www.tpss.coop. Accessed 6 May 2014. 7 Paint Branch Montessori School. www.pbmontessori.com. Accessed 6 May 2014. 8 Seldin, Tim. The Montessori Foundation. A Sense of Timeless Beauty: Designing Facilities for Montessori Programs. Downloaded from www.montessori.org/sitefiles on 1 June 2014. 9 Takoma Children’s School. www.takomachildren.org. Accessed 6 May 2014. 10 The Ability Project. www.abilityprojectmaryland.com. Accessed 6 May 2014. 11 United States Census Bureau. America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2012. www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p50-570.pdf. Accessed 21 May 2014.

Documents

Takoma Junction Development Business Partner Report