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Preliminary Results for the 52 weeks ended 28 December 2008 Domino’s Pizza UK & IRL plc TAKING A BIGGER SLICE

TAKING A BIGGER SLICE - Domino's Pizza › system › files › ... · – Step change for Domino’s Pizza – BGT final had c.14m viewers –3rd biggest TV audience in 2008 23 •

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Page 1: TAKING A BIGGER SLICE - Domino's Pizza › system › files › ... · – Step change for Domino’s Pizza – BGT final had c.14m viewers –3rd biggest TV audience in 2008 23 •

Preliminary Results for the 52 weeks ended 28 December 2008Domino’s Pizza UK & IRL plc

TAKING A BIGGER SLICE

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The Team

Chris Moore Chief Executive Officer

Lee Ginsberg Chief Financial Officer

2

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Financial Highlights for 2008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

LFL sales growth System sales PBT pre-exceptionals* Diluted EPS pre-exceptionals *

Total dividend pence pershare

Another record year

+10.0%

+18.4%+24.7%

+28.6%

+34.1%

* Move to the Official List + other exceptionals

3

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2008 2007 % increase£’000 £’000

System Sales 350,771 296,349 18.4

Operating profit pre-exceptionals 23,739 18,828 26.1Net interest paid (378) (91) ( -) Profit before tax pre-exceptionals 23,361 18,737 24.7Exceptional items:

- (Loss)/Profit on sale of stores (156) 346 -- Admission to Official List (1,002) - -- Operating exceptionals (54) (333) -- Accelerated LTIP charge - (174) __ - _

Unadjusted profit before tax 22,149 18,576 19.2Taxation (6,485) (5,337) (21.5)Profit after tax 15,664 13,239 18.3

Dividends - Per share 5.9p 4.4p 34.1- Cover 1.7x 1.9x

Earnings per share *- Basic 10.86p 8.48p 28.1- Diluted 10.71p 8.33p 28.6

4

Profit and loss

* Pre-exceptionals

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Balance Sheet

2008 2007£’000 £’000

Current Assets:2008 2007 Non current assets 27,660 18,404£’000 £’000

Inventories 2,542 2,340 Current assets 35,784 28,117Receivables 13,650 10,071Investment in Non current assetsfinance leases 858 857 held for sale 736 1,772Prepaid leasecharges 132 220 Total Assets 64,180 48,293Cash 18,602 14,629

35,784 28,117

Current Liabilities Current liabilities (28,094) (27,575)Trade & other (20,523) (18,187)Deferred income (77) (68) Non current liabilities (23,306) (10,821)Financial liabilities (4,867) (6,817)Tax liabilities (2,627) (2,503) Total Liabilities (51,400) (38,396)

(28,094) (27,575)Net assets 12,780 9,897

5

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Statement of Changes in Equity

2008 2007£’000 £’000

At beginning of year 9,897 8,986Proceeds from share issue 653 700Treasury shares held by EBT (4,308) (187)Share buybacks (3,783) (8,346)Profit for year 15,664 13,239Tax (charge)/credit on employee share options (59) 214Share options and LTIP charge 1,106 880Exchange translation differences 1,644 230 Dividends (8,035) (5,816)

12,779 9,900Minorities 1 (3)

12,780 9,897

6

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Cash flow statement2008 2007£’000 £’000

Profit before taxation 22,149 18,576Net finance costs 378 91Share of post tax profits of associates (187) (158)Amortisation and depreciation 1,958 1,545Loss/(Profit) on disposal of non-current assets 156 (346)Share option and LTIP charge 1,106 880Changes in working capital (1,255) 3,835Cash generated from operations 24,305 24,423Taxation paid (5,965) (4,335)Net cash generated by operating activities 18,340 20,088Net cash used by investing activities (8,554) (619)Cash inflow before financing 9,786 19,469Financing activities (6,864) (15,243)Net increase in cash 2,922 4,226Opening cash balance 14,629 10,262Foreign exchange gains on cash and cash equivalents 1,051 141 Cash at end of year 18,602 14,629

7

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Analysis of Borrowings2008 2007

£’000 £’000Cash at bank 18,602 14,629

Revolving credit facilities (12,300) (6,000)

Net Cash 6,302 8,629

DP Capital (2,424) (2,448)

EBT loan (12,035) (7,721)

Other (17) (28)

Net debt (8,174) (1,568)

Net debt/EBITDA 0.3 0.1

8

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Available debt facilities

Effective Utilised at Undrawn atFacility Date 28 Dec 08 28 Dec 08 Term Purpose

£’m £’m £’m

6.0 * Feb 2008 4.0 2.0 364 days Working capital25.0 * Dec 2007 8.3 16.7 5 years Multi-purpose5.0 Dec 2008 2.4 2.6 5 years DP Capital

13.0 * Mar 2008 12.0 1.0 7 years EBT49.0 26.7 22.3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5 year total Consensus free cashflow projection ** - £’m 18.9 23.6 28.2 30.0 34.1 134.8

* All at interest rates of LIBOR + 50bpts** Before expansionary capex

9

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Cash returned to shareholders

5 year total 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004£’000 £’000 £’000 £’000 £’000

Profit after tax 53,909 15,664 13,239 9,996 8,247 6,763

Share buybacks 32,122 3,783 8,346 10,161 8,222 1,610

Dividends 23,494 8,035 5,816 4,234 3,169 2,240

Total returned 55,616 11,818 14,162 14,395 11,391 3,850

% of profit after tax 103% 75% 107% 144% 138% 57%

Net cash at year end 6,302 8,629 4,262 5,885 4,824

10

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Diluted earnings per share *

0123456789

101112

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Dilted earnings per share Linear (Dilted earnings per share)

Compound increase of 28%over last 5 years

4.004.72

5.99

8.33

Penc

e

10.71

18%

27%

39%

29%

* pre-exceptionals

11

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Dividends per share *

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Dividends per share Linear (Dividends per share)

Compound increase of 38%over last 5 years

1.64

2.27

3.06

4.40

Penc

e

* All figures adjusted for share split

5.90

38%

35%

44%

34%

12

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System Sales – The Growth Driver

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

2004(53 wks) 2005 2006 2007 20080

5

10

15

20

25

System Sales PBT

19% compound growth in system sales24% compound growth in PBT

+23%+15%

+20%

+23%

Syste

m Sa

les £’

m +18%

£174.3m£200.7m

£240.1m

£296.3m

PBT

£’m

£350.8m

13

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System sales up 18.4%

450 mature stores 51 immature stores 52 new stores

450 mature stores: £317m Average sales up 10%

51 immature stores: £26m Average sales up 20%

* Increase on stores opened in 2007

52 new stores: £7mAverage sales* up 26%

14

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Like-for-like sales 2008

11.2% 10.7%

14.8% 15.3%

6.5%

9.3%

3.7%

11.2% 11.0%11.9%

10.4%

5.1%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

mature store sales increase

Growth of 10.0% for the year

10.0%

15

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Cumulative mature store sales increase2 year run rate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2007 mature increase 2008 mature increase

%

19.7%

9.7%

13.4% 12.2%13.8%

17.8%

3.7%

11.2%

11.0%11.9% 10.4%

5.1%9.3%

16.1%

11.2%

10.7%

14.8%

15.3% 6.5%

12.8%16.8%

17.6%

9.5%

15.3%

24.0%

27.5%

32.4%

24.8%

21.8%

25.4%23.4%

20.9%

24.4% 24.1% 24.2%22.9%

16

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Historical like-for-like sales growth

10.0%

14.7%

9.7%

7.1%6.6%

7.4%

11.2%

21.4%

4.4%5.5%

6.3%

0

5

10

15

20

25

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

LFL sales growth LFL store population

LFL store populationSa

les gr

owth

% 11.2%

6.6%9.7%

17

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£0

£200

£400

£600

£800

£1,000

£1,200

£1,400

£1,600

£1,800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013£0

£50

£100

£150

£200

£250

Mintel UK Home Delivery (£'000s)Domino's (less carryout and ROI) £'000s

Key Drivers of Like-for-Like GrowthThe Underlying Market

18

• Driven by demographic and social changes• 486 branded competitor stores in 2008 (2001:360)*• 553 Domino’s stores in 2008 (2001:237)

• Market still relatively under-researched• UK Home Delivery predicted to grow by 5% p.a.to 2013 * *• Approx 1 in 6 home delivered meals delivered by Domino’s

UK Home Delivery Market

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Oct '01 Oct '07

Source; Mintel Pizza and Pasta Restaurants 2002 & 2008

Percentage of each age group ordering from Domino’s 2001 to 2007

* Pizza Delivery stores Source: Mintel Pizza & Pasta Restaurants, company estimates * * Source: Mintel Home Delivery Market Aug ’08

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The competition

2008Net

Stores Openings Net Sales

- Domino’s 553 52 £351m- Pizza Hut/PHQ* 258 3 £104m- Perfect Pizza* 110 - £ 18m- Papa Johns* 118 10 £ 30m- Others * 2,000 n/a £312m- TOTAL 3,039 £815m

* company estimates - includes estimates for Ireland where applicable

19

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Key Drivers of Like-for-Like Growth

19

11%

11.7%

12.3%

13.3%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

2006 2007 2008

Penetration42

3734

20

25

30

35

40

45

H2 2006 H2 2007 H2 2008

Re-order frequency in last 6 months

£14.20

£15.23

£16.23

£13.00

£13.50

£14.00

£14.50

£15.00

£15.50

£16.00

£16.50

2006 2007 2008

Average Ticket

20

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Key Drivers of Like-for-Like GrowthContinuous service improvements

% OTD <15 minutes

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

07 mature store 08 mature store

Average Delivery Time in 2008: 23.3 minutes21

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• Product Quality and Innovation• 555,888, BOGOF

• Steak Special

• Meatball Mayhem

• Texas BBQ

• American Hot

• Premiere Pizza/Potato Skins/Kickers with hot sauce

• Ad Fund £18m in 2008 (2007: £15m)

• BGT sponsorship

Key Driver of Like-for-Like GrowthProduct Quality and More Ad Fund fire power

22

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Key Driver of Like-for-Like GrowthMore Ad Fund fire power

• Britain’s Got Talent– ITV1 flagship show, plus..– ITV2;BGMT & AGT– Step change for Domino’s Pizza– BGT final had c.14m viewers– 3rd biggest TV audience in 2008

23

• Media deflation– c.10% in 2008– 25% cheaper in first 6 weeks ‘09

• With shorter spot lengths for the 555 offer, we had 23% more ratings than last year but spent 21% less

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Key Drivers of Like-for-Like Growth E-commerce: 74% increase in online sales

£0

£10,000,000

£20,000,000

£30,000,000

£40,000,000

£50,000,000

£60,000,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

e-commerce net sales (£) % of delivered sales (RHS)

Average ticket 20% higherthan regular orders

24

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Key Drivers of Like-for-Like GrowthCustomer Dynamics (UK only)

• We delivered to 2.7 million customers– 31% entirely new to the brand– 14% returning from pre-2007

• New customers came from a wider range of household types than seen in H1

• Spending the same as existing customers

• Continued growth in customer retention, led by our core and more affluent customers

25

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Other Sales Highlights

• Of the 8,700 Domino’s stores worldwide, 38 of the top 50 are in the UK and Ireland

• 10 out of Top 10 Domino’s International Stores

• 47 stores with sales in excess of £1 million (2007: 35)• Over 50 million pizza bases sold

26

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200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

407

451

num

ber o

f sto

res a

t yea

r end

27

40

50

50

46

501

New Store Openings

Potential for at least 1,000 stores

553

52

Average 48 Openings Per Year

357

(1) (0) (2) (0) (0)

( ) = no. of closures

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Store Growth in 2008

28

Strengthened acquisitions

Team

Better planning

environment

Site availability

Existing franchisee

demand

Smarter processes

and organisation

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Business Development outlook for 2009

• Banks remain confident to lend to a Domino’s franchise

• Well placed to achieve 2009 target of 50 store openings

• At 10th Feb 2009 – Pipeline numbers ahead of last year

• Rolling 150 Target Acquisition List

• Continued gradual improvement in planning environment

• Franchisee Focus – 2008 success builds confidence for 2009– Store: Franchisee ratio now at 4.2:1 (2007: 3.5:1)

• Potential new opportunities

29

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Potential for 1000 + stores

• Current average households in Mature Store Delivery Area = c.30,000

• Ten stores opened last year with <15,000 households. AWUS: £13k

• 18 of 52 store openings were delivery area splits (16 of which were voluntary)

30

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Area SplitsCardiff 1 (1997): 110,000 Households

Cardiff 1& 2 (1999): 110,000 Households

Cardiff 1-5 (today): 157,000 Households

Cardiff 1-6 (2011): 157,000 Households

31

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Area SplitsBirmingham (current): 756,000 Households18 stores

Birmingham (current + target): 961,000 Households25 stores

Birmingham (current + target + future): 1,195,000 Households40 stores

32

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Store refit programme

• New store modernisation programme– Last image update started in 2000– Improving design, ‘theatre’ and branding– Communicating core values

» Quality, fresh, fun

• Up to 100 stores to be re-fitted in 2009– Cost of c£25k per store (funded by franchisee)– Up to 4 day closure for store– c£750k “lost” system sales

33

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Commissary update

• Extension to Penrith– 100% additional capacity

• To circa 200 stores at build-out– On track for completion

• Quarter 2 2009– On budget at a capital spend of circa £4.0m– Resilience to wider capacity in system until new Milton

Keynes facility in use• Key processes will be automated

34

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Commissary update (contd.)

• New Milton Keynes facility– 10 acres of land acquired– Construction well underway– Capacity to service 500 stores at build-out

• Higher capacity to cover growing sales– Technological investment/automation

• Potential benefits after commissioning– Estimated completion Quarter 2 2010– Cost of circa £27m

• Marginally higher than expected• Larger footprint and more automation• More resilience and back-up

35

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Commissary update (contd.)

• Future developments to support 1,000 stores– Irish commissary expansion

• Additional space at current facility• Previously anticipated £7m capital spend in 2010

– Deferred to 2012/13

– Further medium size commissary in UK• Estimated spend of circa £15m in 2013/2014• Resilience rather than capacity needs

– Sale of existing Milton Keynes commissary• Towards end of 2011• Value depends on planning

36

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38

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2009 food cost outlook

• Fixed price contracts in 2008– Vast majority of food basket hedged

• Now out of 2008 contracts– Just at the time of falling commodity prices in Q4 2008

• Early benefits of lower food costs in 2009– Sufficient volumes/pricing secured– Passed on to franchisees

• Eg. Cheese and Flour/Dough

• Further price falls in Q1 2009– Passing on to franchisees where possible– But being negated by strength of USD and Euro

39

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2009 food cost outlook (contd.)– Flour

• Locked in 2009 anticipated volume• Dough +/- 6% of food cost

– Now secured at lower levels than 2008

– Cheese• Falling prices for Q1 and Q2• Cheese +/- 7% of food cost• Significantly lower than 2008 cost

– Pressures more from product sourced in USD and Euros

• Supply chain re-engineering partly mitigating this

NET BENEFIT TO SYSTEM OVERALL40

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Current trading and prospects

• Exceptional start to year in first six weeks of 2009– Like for like sales up 15.0% (2008: 11.0%)– Challenging comparatives for balance of year

• Store opening pipeline looking good– On track to open 50 stores

• Product quality, execution and growing NAF key– TV market providing increased spending power

• Customer Database a big advantage• Resilient model in tougher economic times and food cost pressures

under control

WELL PLACED FOR ANOTHER YEAR OF STRONG GROWTH 41

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APPENDIX 1 The Financial Model at 2018(Pages A-1 – A-2)

APPENDIX 2 The Franchisee Model(Page A-3 – A-4)

APPENDIX 3 Mature Store AWUS Banding(Page A-5)

APPENDICES

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The financial model at 2018At build out

2001 2006 2007 2008 (circa 2018)

No. of stores 237 451 501 553 1,050- 50 openings p.a.

AWUS growth at 3% p.a. £8,422 £11,347 £12,539 £13,493 £17,605System sales £ 98m £ 240m £ 296m £ 351m £ 920mProfit before tax* £ 2.9m £ 14.2m £ 18.7m £23.4m £ 83m-£92mPBT/System sales 3.0% 5.9% 6.3% 6.7% 9.0%-10.0%

+100% 50%

• Stores double – profits grow five-fold• Circa 8% of incremental sales to profit (commissary 5.5% + neet royalty 2.8%)• Significant operational gearing

– Commissaries– Central infrastructure

A-1

* pre-exceptionals

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At build out *2006 2007 2008 (circa 2018)

• PBT £14.2m £18.7m £23.4m £92.0m• Share buybacks ***• Average no. of shares in issue 162.6m 158.0m 156.9m 128.0m• Diluted EPS** - pence 6.2p 8.4p 10.71p 51.0p

- CAGR 19% p.a.• Dividend - cover 2.1x 1.9x 1.7x 1.5x

- pence 3.1p ** 4.4p 5.9p 34.0p

AT LEAST 10 YEARS OF CASH GENERATIVE ORGANIC GROWTH

* Independent analyst research – not a forecast** Pre-exceptionals*** To achieve cash neutral position at 2018. Circa 20% of equity.

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The financial model at 2018 (contd.)

Page 45: TAKING A BIGGER SLICE - Domino's Pizza › system › files › ... · – Step change for Domino’s Pizza – BGT final had c.14m viewers –3rd biggest TV audience in 2008 23 •

2008 average store cost to an existing franchisee was:

£Store construction costs 155,000 (range £115k - £190k)Acquisition and legal costs 15,000 (range £9k - £20k)

170,000

Franchisee fee 13,000 (range £3,750 - £15k)

Project management fee:- Acquisition fee 5,000 (range £1,500 - £6k)- Design and develop 6,000 (£6k)- Project supervisor fee 2,000 (range £0k - £3k)

Total Capital Investment £196,000 plus VAT

The Franchisee Model

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• Average mature store system sales £700,000- £13,493 AWUS in 2008

• Average mature store EBITDA after: £100,000- Food costs 27%- Labour 28%- NAF & Royalty 10.5%- Occupancy 6%- LSM 4%

• Cash payback on investment 2.0 years(range 1.4 – 2.5)

FRANCHISEE PROFITABILITY KEY

The Franchisee Model (contd.)

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Mature Store Turnover by AWUS banding

0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 7% 8%2%

6% 7%9% 9% 7%

10%

16%

22%

10%

18%

26%28%

33%31%

42%

43%

42%

32%

39%

43%

42%

42%42%

34%

29%24%

31%

29%

20%17%

13% 16%8%

4% 3%

25%

8%4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

<£5k

£5k-£7k

£7k-£10k

£10k-£15k

£15k-£20k

>£20k

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