TAFE NSW International Centre for VET Teaching and Learning Course Non-Completions in Trade Skill Shortage Areas Terry SaunbyAnn Topple Principal Program

TAFE NSW International Centre for VET Teaching and LearningTAFE NSW International Centre for VET Teaching and Learning

Course Non-Completions in Course Non-Completions in Trade Skill Shortage Areas Trade Skill Shortage Areas

Terry SaunbyTerry Saunby Ann ToppleAnn TopplePrincipal Program ManagerPrincipal Program Manager Chief Education OfficerChief Education Officer

Donna Inkson Donna Inkson Mehrassa FarjadMehrassa FarjadChief Education Officer Chief Education Officer Project ManagerProject Manager


Why?Why?



Several years ago it was observed that Several years ago it was observed that completions of the trade qualifications in the completions of the trade qualifications in the Automotive area had a peculiar Automotive area had a peculiar characteristic of not following the trend for characteristic of not following the trend for overall enrolments – overall enrolments –

If enrolments increased or decreased If enrolments increased or decreased completions didn’t reflect that trend…completions didn’t reflect that trend…


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

__Completions

_Commencements

Enrolments

__Completions 880 1040 1134 828 713 817 807 865 776 827 702 760 354 564 623 612

_Commencements 20521666 15121677 18971804 17431673 157215541805 16491417 16451673 1617

Enrolments 49934912 47624418 52575242 52645205 444840064206 40873792 40014034 4219

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

INSTITUTE (All) DESCRIPTION _LIGHT AUTO 2278 2240 7293 7116 7119 9003 AUTOMOTIVE MECHANIC LIGHT

Sum of DATA

YEAR

TYPE


The phenomenon raised the question:The phenomenon raised the question:

“ “What happens if we are measured on What happens if we are measured on outcomes?”outcomes?”


This anomaly was recommended for This anomaly was recommended for research but didn’t rank sufficiently high research but didn’t rank sufficiently high enough on the organisation’s priorities…enough on the organisation’s priorities…


Then COAG decided that training would Then COAG decided that training would progressively move to an outcomes based progressively move to an outcomes based model… model…


……and TAFE NSW would be funded on the and TAFE NSW would be funded on the outcomes model…outcomes model…


Interest was renewed…Interest was renewed…


COAG identified six skill shortage trade COAG identified six skill shortage trade areas:areas:

Bricklayers Carpenters and joiners Electricians Motor mechanics Plumbers Refrigeration/air-conditioning mechanics


Bi-lateral Funding AgreementBi-lateral Funding AgreementAdditional New Apprentice commencements in skills Additional New Apprentice commencements in skills shortages in traditional trades:shortages in traditional trades: The NSW target is The NSW target is 3,3263,326 places. The industries in which places. The industries in which NSW will meet the target are (ASCO Code and ASCO NSW will meet the target are (ASCO Code and ASCO name):name):

41 Mechanical and Fabrication Engineering 41 Mechanical and Fabrication Engineering TradespersonsTradespersons

42 Automotive Tradesperson42 Automotive Tradesperson 43 Electrical and Electronics Tradespersons43 Electrical and Electronics Tradespersons 44 Construction Tradespersons44 Construction Tradespersons

(4 of 7 identified trades)(4 of 7 identified trades)


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

__Completions

_Commencements

Enrolments

__Completions 171 241 225 167 153 127 161 175 94 90 91 172 152 114 126 103

_Commencements 611 401 336 487 569 552 512 403 673 713 725 513 479 514 605 564

Enrolments 12911179 971 946 10291065 1014 832 101911481264 1058 883 868 977 1038

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

INSTITUTE (All) DESCRIPTION BRICKLAYING 5159 2160 8064 4427 BRICKLAYING

Sum of DATA

YEAR

TYPE


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

__Completions

_Commencements

Enrolments

__Completions 10271528 1422 935 954 947 1030 936 716 775 825 794 817 669 855 974

_Commencements 22781778 16982161 26052522 24582017 247028542703 21431916 24552594 2902

Enrolments 59275790 50894814 51715218 50804520 445852255542 52964607 49875587 6507

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

INSTITUTE (All) DESCRIPTION CARPENTRY 5158 2149 2192 7078 4429 4814 CARPENTER AND JOINER

Sum of DATA

YEAR

TYPE


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

__Completions

_Commencements

Enrolments

__Completions 11401100 11761002 801 740 803 901 779 630 827 836 423 677 676 537

_Commencements 22512124 20252011 18141976 18861886 201221521857 16251807 20562019 2404

Enrolments 57535703 56065280 47034615 47594877 485750705158 48444792 52715639 6471

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

INSTITUTE (All) DESCRIPTION _ELECTRICAL 1001 1093 1027 1059 7793 6029 4279 9183 6077 ELECTRICIAN

Sum of DATA

YEAR

TYPE


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

__Completions

_Commencements

Enrolments

__Completions 473 660 558 399 327 338 374 384 343 283 370 428 309 272 296 366

_Commencements 887 696 630 773 830 825 737 630 818 946 786 923 877 11411096 1079

Enrolments 25172452 21151926 19362080 20581863 192622142306 24942401 24802656 2908

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

INSTITUTE (All) DESCRIPTION _Plumbing, Gasfitting and Draining 1409 7996 1270 PLUMBER

Sum of DATA

YEAR

TYPE


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

__Completions

_Commencements

Enrolments

__Completions 54 109 97 113 162 147 155 175 191 81 143 141 170

_Commencements 291 379 335 469 553 511 452 512 604 478 543 530 482 524 631

Enrolments 291 600 742 913 1059 1082 1014 1085 1245 1251 1271 1315 1367 1399 1615

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

INSTITUTE (All) DESCRIPTION ELECTROTECHNOLOGY REFRIGERATION & AIR CONDITIONING 4204 7795 9189 REFRIGERATION MECHANIC

Sum of DATA

YEAR

TYPE


What’s wrong with this idea?What’s wrong with this idea?


VOCED has a legacy of VOCED has a legacy of continuous improvement continuous improvement

of quality inputsof quality inputs


Competency Standards

Objective Based

Curriculum

CBT Style Curriculum

Unit Based Curriculum

1990 2005

ANTA

1993

Institutes RTOs

2001

Schofield Review

1994 1997

ISO

AQTF

NationalTraining

Framework

ARFTraining Packages AQTF

Curriculum mapped to UOC

National

NSW

2006

ANTA

DEST

AQTFv.2

AQF


Research about completions:Research about completions:

•ModulesModules

•QualificationsQualifications


Research into Non-Completions:Research into Non-Completions:


Current destination surveys of VET students Current destination surveys of VET students in Australia tend to focus on course and in Australia tend to focus on course and

module completers and there is little follow-module completers and there is little follow-up with those who did not complete their up with those who did not complete their

course/qualification course/qualification


The findings from a preliminary literature The findings from a preliminary literature review have been grouped below in three review have been grouped below in three

categories: categories:

1.1. RTO factorsRTO factors

2.2. Employer factorsEmployer factors

3.3. Personal factors Personal factors


Relationships between course completion Relationships between course completion and course design for all courses (not just and course design for all courses (not just apprenticeships and traineeship courses) apprenticeships and traineeship courses)

are few and weak. are few and weak.


Courses that are ‘bigger’ have lower Courses that are ‘bigger’ have lower completion rates:completion rates:

the more modules in a course, the lower the the more modules in a course, the lower the completion ratecompletion rate

the more ‘core’ modules in a course, the the more ‘core’ modules in a course, the lower the completion rate lower the completion rate

the more ‘elective’ modules in a course, the the more ‘elective’ modules in a course, the lower the completion ratelower the completion rate


Courses that are ‘bigger’ have lower Courses that are ‘bigger’ have lower completion rates:completion rates:

the longer the course, in nominal hours, the the longer the course, in nominal hours, the lower the completion rate (except that lower the completion rate (except that course with 601 -700 hours have the lowest course with 601 -700 hours have the lowest completion rate)completion rate)

the greater the average module length, the the greater the average module length, the higher the completion rate.higher the completion rate.


Courses that have more choice have lower Courses that have more choice have lower completion rates:completion rates:

courses composed of core plus electives courses composed of core plus electives had lower completion rates then ‘core only’ had lower completion rates then ‘core only’ coursescourses

core-elective courses with more electives core-elective courses with more electives from which to choose had lower completion from which to choose had lower completion rates than those with fewer electivesrates than those with fewer electives


Courses that have more choice have lower Courses that have more choice have lower completion rates:completion rates:

where students had to choose several where students had to choose several electives (M) out of a larger number (N), the electives (M) out of a larger number (N), the lower the value of the M/N, the lower the lower the value of the M/N, the lower the completion rate (analysed only for Victoria). completion rate (analysed only for Victoria).

courses consisting of modules with courses consisting of modules with ungraded assessments had higher ungraded assessments had higher completion rates than courses consisting completion rates than courses consisting largely of modules with graded assessments largely of modules with graded assessments (analysed only for New South Wales).(analysed only for New South Wales).


In general terms it appears that higher In general terms it appears that higher completion rates are associated with:completion rates are associated with:

enrolment in courses where enrolment is enrolment in courses where enrolment is combined with paid employmentcombined with paid employment

enrolment in courses which are regarded as enrolment in courses which are regarded as a normal requirement for entry into an a normal requirement for entry into an occupationoccupation


In general terms it appears that higher In general terms it appears that higher completion rates are associated with:completion rates are associated with:

trade certificates and apprenticeships trade certificates and apprenticeships courses leading to occupations in courses leading to occupations in

personal and community servicespersonal and community services


Employer FactorsEmployer FactorsReasons given by apprentices for not Reasons given by apprentices for not completing their apprenticeship were:completing their apprenticeship were:

conflict with the employer conflict with the employer financial concerns (low wages, being treated financial concerns (low wages, being treated

as cheap labour, and leaving for higher pay) as cheap labour, and leaving for higher pay) a perception that ‘they were not learning a perception that ‘they were not learning

anything’ anything’


Reasons given by apprentices for not Reasons given by apprentices for not completing their apprenticeship were:completing their apprenticeship were:

an inadequate understanding of the industry an inadequate understanding of the industry a lack of basic employability and workplace a lack of basic employability and workplace

skillsskills poor recruitment processes by employers; poor recruitment processes by employers;

lack of selection by employers, open entry to lack of selection by employers, open entry to apprenticeshipsapprenticeships

a negative perception of the trade area..a negative perception of the trade area..


Personal FactorsPersonal FactorsStudents rated how important each of a range of Students rated how important each of a range of 58 possible reasons for leaving a course prior to 58 possible reasons for leaving a course prior to completion was for them. Analysis targeted seven completion was for them. Analysis targeted seven key themes:key themes:

•quality of course deliveryquality of course delivery•time demands of the course and personal time demands of the course and personal management skillsmanagement skills•length, relevance and flexibility of courselength, relevance and flexibility of course


Analysis targeted seven key themes Analysis targeted seven key themes (cont.):(cont.):

•course not appropriate to needs; changed career course not appropriate to needs; changed career goalsgoals•appropriateness and timing of assessmentappropriateness and timing of assessment•transferring to a more appropriate course or transferring to a more appropriate course or another institutionanother institution•location of training and travel.location of training and travel.


How?How?


The purpose of this project is to identify The purpose of this project is to identify approaches and strategies that will assist approaches and strategies that will assist

Institutes in addressing low completion rates Institutes in addressing low completion rates in apprenticeship and traineeship in apprenticeship and traineeship

qualifications.qualifications.


MethodologyMethodology

Tool:Tool: Survey (5,000 survey documents mailed Survey (5,000 survey documents mailed out, followed by phone interview of 500 out, followed by phone interview of 500 respondents). The research methodologies used respondents). The research methodologies used will reflect those identified in the 2005 NCVER will reflect those identified in the 2005 NCVER report report Technical report: Survey methodological Technical report: Survey methodological options for a) non-completers of VET and b) options for a) non-completers of VET and b) apprentices and trainees over timeapprentices and trainees over time, by Stephen , by Stephen Lamb.Lamb.


Who:Who: Past students who enrolled in 2001 or Past students who enrolled in 2001 or 2002 in TAFE NSW and did not complete their 2002 in TAFE NSW and did not complete their trade qualification including those who were and trade qualification including those who were and were not registered as an apprentice or trainee were not registered as an apprentice or trainee (as recorded on the Student and Course (as recorded on the Student and Course Information System; and the Vocational Training Information System; and the Vocational Training Tribunal for Craft Certificate data). This would Tribunal for Craft Certificate data). This would include trade apprenticeship qualifications include trade apprenticeship qualifications (Certificate III or Certificate IV) involving a (Certificate III or Certificate IV) involving a Training Plan or indenture; and non-trade Training Plan or indenture; and non-trade qualifications at all AQF qualification levels. qualifications at all AQF qualification levels. (+7000 pop sample)(+7000 pop sample)


Factors that will be investigated through data from Factors that will be investigated through data from the TAFE NSW Data Warehouse:the TAFE NSW Data Warehouse:

age at enrolment (teens; twenty year olds; over age at enrolment (teens; twenty year olds; over 30 year olds)30 year olds)

gender (male; female)gender (male; female) geographical location (metropolitan Sydney or geographical location (metropolitan Sydney or

regional NSW, including campus)regional NSW, including campus) TAFE NSW Institute (12 Institutes).TAFE NSW Institute (12 Institutes).


Factors that will be investigated through the Factors that will be investigated through the survey:survey:

personal variables (time, difficulty, LLN, etc) personal variables (time, difficulty, LLN, etc) employment variables (changed circumstances, employment variables (changed circumstances,

employer; NACs; GTCs; employment employer; NACs; GTCs; employment outcome/no employment outcome; employer outcome/no employment outcome; employer recruitment/screening)recruitment/screening)


Factors that will be investigated through the Factors that will be investigated through the survey:survey:

the student’s intention in choosing the the student’s intention in choosing the alternative path to employment through the alternative path to employment through the Vocational Training Tribunal (rather than Vocational Training Tribunal (rather than starting/completing a qualification)starting/completing a qualification)

RTO variables:RTO variables: delivery (RPL, timing, counseling, screening)delivery (RPL, timing, counseling, screening) course designcourse design



Documents

TAFE NSW International Centre for VET Teaching and Learning Course Non-Completions in Trade Skill Shortage Areas Terry SaunbyAnn Topple Principal Program