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Decision Support at the Microscale. Tactical Forecast Grids. How good is “good enough?”. Research conducted in microscale meteorology suggest variations of 20 F and tens of knots are not uncommon at spatial scales less than 1 mile. Crosstimbers Micronet. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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TACTICAL FORECAST GRIDS
Decision Support at the Microscale
How good is “good enough?” Research conducted in microscale
meteorology suggest variations of 20 F and tens of knots are not uncommon at spatial scales less than 1 mile.
Crosstimbers Micronet
See: ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/103127.pdf by M.J. Haugland
Crosstimbers Micronet
Temperature(comparison between Micronet and nearby Mesonet sites)
MATT HAUGLAND
Pasture-Level Influences
Note the cold anomaly mid-way between two Mesonet sites spaced 20 miles apart!
Why does it matter?
Mount Scott(~2400 ft)
Medicine Creek
(~1500 ft)
Trains, Trucks, and Mountains
Trucks(~1230 ft) Trains
(~750 ft)
What about NDFD Grids?
What if…
We could accurately forecast with 2500 times more detail?
Account for local mesoscale circulations? What if we could account for land use and
urbanization? Update the forecast each hour? Produce tailored decision support forecast
content?
Tactical Forecast Grids
Tactical Forecast Grids
Tactical Forecast Grids
100 m grid spacing 50 X 50 km moveable tactical domain Updated hourly Hourly forecast to 8 hours Time of request to forecast product ~15
minutes
NDFD vs. TFG – A Comparison
Tactical Forecast Grids
How do we do that?
LAPS5000m2X hr-1
Mesonet
Topo1000m
RUC
Metars
WFO WRF4000m1X hr-1
NAMLateral
Boundary
Topo1000m
VegetativeFraction
(Satellite)
LandUse
GFE 100m
HAZMATFire
SupportTacticalForecast
Topo30m
Forecaster Expertise
QC,SA
Tactical model configuration, domain grid
selection
QC, Smart Tools,Decision Support
Expert
Tactical Grid Forecast Process
RUC13
Alte
rnat
ive
LAPS Domain
WRF Domain
LAPS, WRF, TFG Domains
Tactical Forecast Grids
They look pretty, but are they any good?
The Fort Cobb Project ARS Ft. Cobb
Micronet5 min T,Td15 stations
Compared T, Td between NDFD and TFG at stations
Jan 9 – Feb 28, 2009Around clock
Results
12240 temperature forecast pairs TFG improved over NDFD 75% of the
time MAE was about 40% improved in TFG
(about 1.3 deg F) MAE improvement was consistent night
and dayMAE slightly larger at night
MAE at 01Z
F101 F102 F103 F104 F105 F106 F107 F108 F109 F110 F111 F112 F113 F114 F115
Hires
1.81617647058824
1.76838235294118
2.37132352941176
1.83088235294118
1.63235294117648
1.875 1.58455882352941
1.64705882352941
1.89705882352941
4.15073529411765
1.70588235294118
2.51838235294118
1.73161764705882
1.38970588235294
1.47426470588235
NDFD
3.29411764705883
3.58455882352941
3.5220588235294
2.77573529411765
3.02941176470588
3.375 2.85294117647058
3.09191176470588
2.625 4.63235294117647
2.92279411764706
2.875 2.72426470588237
2.76470588235295
2.41544117647058
0.25
0.75
1.25
1.75
2.25
2.75
3.25
3.75
4.25
4.75
MAE 01Z Accumulation Per Site
Hires
Site Location
oF
MAE at 21Z
F101 F102 F103 F104 F105 F106 F107 F108 F109 F110 F111 F112 F113 F114 F115
Hires
1.47426470588235
1.79044117647059
1.31985294117647
1.8125 1.47426470588235
1.33455882352941
1.52205882352941
1.53676470588235
2.16176470588237
1.99632352941177
1.27573529411764
1.44485294117647
1.28308823529412
1.88970588235294
1.33823529411765
NDFD
3.20220588235294
3.25367647058823
2.91544117647058
2.71323529411765
2.91911764705882
3.01470588235294
2.83088235294118
2.8639705882353
2.47794117647059
3.33823529411765
2.56985294117647
2.60661764705882
2.4375 2.43382352941176
2.42279411764706
0.25
0.75
1.25
1.75
2.25
2.75
3.25
3.75
21 Z MAE Accumulation Per Site
Hires
Site Location
oF
Future Work
Explore techniques to improve WRF initialization
Refine Smart-Init Expand domains Run farther in time Develop GIS compatible formats
Tactical Forecast Grids
What are the implications for NWS services?
Implications – Services
More accurate short-term forecastsFire weather, dispersion, HAZMAT, special
event support, simulating local effects for forecast decisions (e.g. freeze warnings)
The tactical forecast
Tactical Forecast
Generated by Tactical GFE formatter Includes ALOHA parameters Disseminated via email to event-specific
customer list.
TTAA00 KOUN 061612 TACOUN TACTICAL DECISION SUPPORT FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2009 .INCIDENT...DEWEY CO WILDFIRE .FORECAST... TIME (CST) 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 WIND SPEED (KT) 4 G5 5 G9 7 G11 10 G16 11 G18 12 G19 WIND DIR (DEG) 129 166 195 199 207 209 SKY (%) 60 60 60 60 60 60 TEMPERATURE (F) 59 62 67 70 74 76 STABILITY CLASS C C C C D D REL. HUMIDITY (%) 18 20 21 22 21 21 DEWPOINT (F) 16 21 26 29 32 33 1KFT WIND (MPH) S 4 S 6 S 11 S 14 SW 15 SW 18 2KFT WIND (MPH) SW 11 SW 14 SW 20 SW 24 SW 20 SW 20 3KFT WIND (MPH) W 17 SW 17 SW 21 SW 25 SW 27 SW 26 MIXING HGT (FT) 1023 1496 2176 2564 3178 3754 TRANS WIND (KT) SW 5 S 7 S 10 S 15 SW 15 SW 18 N/A N/A HEAT INDEX WIND CHILL 59 62 67 70 74 76 .LAT/LON...36.03/-98.96 $$
Tactical Forecast
Georeferenced formatsGeoTiffShapefiles
○ Highlight areas using thresholds important to decision-makingRegions and times below freezingRegions and times of poor dispersionRegions and times of dangerous wildfire spread
indexAnd so on
Implications - Operations Redefines the role of the forecaster and the
forecast processToo detailed and rapid-paced for hand editsForecaster becomes an advisor to decision
makersForecaster needs to be expert in mesoscale
and microscale meteorology Easily transportable throughout NWS field
Can be customized to meet local needsExpertise to implement already exists in many
offices
QUESTIONS?