T5.2 Market study · A detailed report is available. This presentation is only a summary with the goal to have a quick overview of the report’s content. Icons used in this presentation

T5.2 Market studyMiet Van Dael - VITO

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A detailed report is available. This presentation is only a summary with the goal to have a quick

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ContentIntroduction

CO2 availability

CO2 capture and purification

CO2 transport

CO2 use

Legal aspects

Environmental aspects

Public perception

Introduction

Introduction

CO2

Capture, purification

and transport

Conversion and DSP

Industrial applications

Consumer goods

Catalysis• Thermal• Plasma• Electro• Photo(n)• Bio

Flue gases (process vs energy)

• Iron and Steel• Cement• Ammonia• Ethylene oxide• Biogas• …

Direct Air Capture

Capture• Pre-

combustion• Post-

combustion• Oxyfuel

Purification

Transport• Road• Pipeline

ChemicalsFuelsPolymersBuilding materials…

Introduction

CO2


and transport

Conversion and DSP


Consumer goods

H2

Introduction

CO2


and transport

Conversion and DSP


Consumer goods

Reasons for CCU in literature

Reasons for CCU interestTo create a revenue stream for CO2 abatement from fossil fuel use based on consumer demandfor CO2-containing products.Avoid greenhouse gas emissionsAlternative for carbon capture and storage (CCS)Energy securityTo make use of specific attributes of CO2 in commercially competitive applicationsTo remediate inorganic wastes from industrial processesTo decarbonize the process industry and transportation sectorSequestration of significant quantities of CO2 in building materialsEnergy storage optionsCCU can provide revenues to fund (partially) CCS projectsReplace fossil or biobased feedstockFeedstock and price securityContribute to a circular economyReduce the complexity of chemical reaction pathwaysCost control for the supply of fuels

In literature the reasons for CCU are mainly linked to:- Climate change mitigation or

environmental benefits in general - Energy security

Only few linked to:- Competitiveness - Innovation

Probably CCU and CCS are combined and focus in the beginning was mainly on CCS.

Reasons for CCU in literature

CCS is focused on the reduction of CO2 emissions, i.e. environmental driver.

CCU is mainly focused on creating added value to CO2 by using it as a carbon source for the creation of new products, i.e. economic driver.

Delphi & scenario development

Our Delphi study and scenario development have two main goals: (1) to obtain an overview of the critical issues related to CCU technologies, and (2) to establish the interrelationships of these factors in a specific case study.

Questions:1. What are the most important benefits of CCU technologies?2. What are the most important risks of CCU technologies?3. What are the most important future developments of CCU technologies?4. What are the most important constraints that can hinder future demand of CCU technologies?5. What are the most important constraints that can hinder future supply of CCU technologies?

All critical issues identified by Delphi experts per category.


Top 5 of critical issues identified by Delphi experts per category.

Scoring of critical issues on uncertainty and potential impact in scenario development workshop.


Scenario 1“CCU purgatory”

High costs

Low costs

Stimulating government

Unstimulating government

Scenario 2“CCU paradise”

Scenario 3“CCU hell”

Scenario 4“Saint industry”

Delphi & scenario developmentFour identified scenarios by experts.

CO2 availability

CO2

CO2 availability

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are globally around 400 ppm (monthly average).

Many of the technologies to capture CO2 from the atmosphere are still in development.

CO2 availability

Anderson & Peters, 2016

Total emissions are ca. 35 Gt per year.

Estimated global capturable emissions from point sources differ largely but an accepted range of capturable emissions is 1.5 to 2 Gt.

Emissions per sector can be changed over time as more efficient processes are designed or alternative sources become available on the market.

CO2 availability

The four large industrial CO2 emitters are:- Cement – 3 Gt CO2- Iron and steel – 2.9 Gt CO2- Ammonia – 0.5 Gt CO2- Ethylene manufacturers – 0.2 Gt CO2

Within these production processes of the CO2 emissions :- 45% come from the feedstock, - 35% from burning fuel to generate high-

temperature heat,- 20% from other energy requirements.

de Pee et al., 2018

CO2 availabilityGlobal: GHG emissions per sector Global: division of GHG gases

76% ~ 35 Gton CO2

EU: CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industry

Fossil fuel & industry EU 2 Gton CO2

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/2/2e/Greenhouse_gas_emissions%2C_analysis_by_source_sector%2C_EU-28%2C_1990_and_2014_%28percentage_of_total%29_new.pnghttps://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/greenhouse-gas-emission-trends-6/assessment-1

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data

CO2 availability

Based on CarbonNext project

Within Europe ca. 3.2 Gt CO2 emissions per year in total.

The largest industrial CO2 emitters are:- Cement – 0.12 Gt CO2- Iron and steel – 0.15 Gt CO2

CO2 emitters

Largest, most interesting CO2 emitters:

- Iron and steel industry- Cement industry

- Ammonia production- Ethylene production

Steel industryCa. 1.3 to 1.5 ton CO2eq/per ton of steel. Most waste gases in Europe are used for heat or power production, in other regions these are flared.

Cement industryCa. 0.75 ton CO2/per ton cement. Ca. 40% result from the combustion of fuel and 60% from the calcination of calcium carbonate into calcium oxide.

Ammonia productionCa. 1.1 ton CO2/per ton ammonia. Ca. 36% of the CO2 is removed and around 33% of it is used for urea production, 2.2% is sold for other purposes (e.g. enhanced oil recovery).

Ethylene productionCa. 1.6 ton CO2/per ton ethylene. The emissions result from the steam cracking process.

Steel industry

The challenge is the large share of nitrogen. The gases are saturated with water. Other components are aromatic compounds, H2S and HCN. Also dust is present.

Pretreatment will be necessary: (1) purify and remove impurities to retain the CO and H2, large gas amount needs to be treated, or

(2) separate the CO, more expensive option and H2 is not retained

Concentration (%)Component BF gas BOF gas Coke plant gas Converter gas

CO2 20-30 10-20 1.5-2.5 14CO 18-35 50-70 5-7 70N2 40-60 15-30 6-10 16H2 2-4 1-2 58-65 2BF = Blast Furnace; BOF = Basic Oxygen Furnace

Cement industryThe flue gases of a rotary kiln in the cement industry amounts to approximately 25 vol%.

Ammonia productionThe conventional processes emit almost pure flows of CO2. In the water gas shift reaction air is added to the mix

of CO and steam to make CO2 and H2. After this step the CO2 is eliminated and the pure flow of CO2 with a mixture of N2 and H2 results

Ethylene productionA gas is removed during the absorption phase with a CO2 content between 30% and 100%. Other components in

the gas are H2O, acetaldehyde and traces of formaldehyde.

Biogas production

Other components in biogas are H2S and NH3.

Biogas producers vary in size, are typically geographically distributed and are smaller emitters.

Biogas can be upgraded using different technologies to green gas with over 90 vol% CH4, resulting in a separate, concentrated CO2 stream.

%vol Household waste Sludge Agricultural wasteCO2 38-34 33-19 33-19CH4 50-60 60-75 60-75N2 5-0 1-0 1-0O2 1-0 < 0.5 < 0.5H2O 6 (40°C) 6 (40°C) 6 (40°C)

CO2 emitters in Flanders

Overview of biogas/biomass companies and ETS

companies in Flanders.

Biogas/Biomass companies are typically more spread in

the landscape and have lower CO2 emissions


Overview of ETS companies in Flanders with an

indication of their total CO2eq emissions.

Only a few large CO2emitting companies exist.

These are mainly located in Antwerp and Ghent.

Note that for most companies only CO2 is taken into account for the ETS system, implying that CO2eq emissions are often CO2 emissions.

CO2 emitters in the Netherlands

Overview of ETS companies in the Netherlands with an

indication of their total CO2eq emissions.

The largest emitting companies are situated in the south-western part of

the Netherlands and Amsterdam.

Note that for most companies only CO2 is taken into account for the ETS system, implying that CO2eq emissions are often CO2 emissions.

CO2 emitters in Flanders and the Netherlands

In both Flanders and the Netherlands over 75% of the ETS companies have CO2eq emissions

below 100,000 ton per year.

CO2eq emissions (ton/year)

Flanders The Netherlands

Percentage of companies per category of CO2eq emissions


Refineries and Iron and steel industry have the highest emissions per company in Flanders.

Sector # CO2(kton)

CO (kton)

SOx(kton)

NOx(kton)

N2O (kton)

CH4(kton)

NH3(kton)

Refineries 4 5228 1.27 9.89 3.98 0.15 0.09 0.0005

Electricity production

16 11,340 0.96 0.76 3.37 0.10 0.44 0.01

Iron and steel industry

2 4328 149 5.75 5.89 0 1.14 0.03

Chemical industry 71 8368 1.54 2.14 8.08 2.98 0.30 0.61

Number of companies and total reported emissions per sector in Flanders.

CO2 emitters in FlandersETS data (company level – CO2eq) VMM data (emission point – CO2)Electrabel – Centrale knippegroen Electrabel – Centrale KnippegroenArcelor Mittal Gent E.ON Generation Belgium – Centrale LangerloTotal Raffinaderij Antwerpen Electrabel – Centrale RodenhuizeBASF Antwerpen ArcelorMittal Gent – installatie 1Esso Raffinaderij Antwerpen Centrale Zandvliet Power (BASF)T-Power Total Raffinaderij AntwerpenCentrale Zandvliet Power EDF Luminus – Site RingvaartTotal Olefins Antwerp Esso Raffinaderij AntwerpenElectrabel – Centrale Herdersbrug Esso Raffinaderij AntwerpenEDF Luminus – Site Ringvaart Total Olefins AntwerpEvonik Degussa Antwerpen Evonik Degussa Antwerpen – Oxeno AntwerpenElectrabel – Centrale Rodenhuize Electrabel – Centrale HerdersbrugEssent Energie België Electrabel – Centrale HerdersbrugIndepent Belgian Refinery Total Olefins AntwerpBP Chembel Borealis KalloAir Liquide – Jupiter 2 Total Raffinaderij AntwerpenE.ON Generation Belgium – Centrale langerlo BP ChembelAir Liquide – Jupiter 1 A&S energieBorealis Kallo Air Liquide Large Industry – Jupiter 1Electrabel – Centrale Lanxess Rubber Electrabel – Centrale Lanxess Rubber

Top 20 of emitting companies in Flanders based on ETS data (i.e. CO2eq emissions, company level)

and VMM data (i.e. CO2 emissions, emission point level)

CO2 emitters in the Netherlands

Top 20 of emitting companies in the Netherlands based on ETS data (i.e.

CO2eq emissions, company level).

ETS data (company level – CO2eq)RWE Eemshaven CentraleTata Steel IJmuiden bv BKG 1Uniper Centrale MaasvlakteUniper Maasvlakte Powerplant 3Shell Nederland Raffinaderij B.V.Nuon Centrale HemwegNuon Power VelsenEssent AmercentraleENGIE Centrale RotterdamBP Raffinaderij Rotterdam B.V.ENGIE EemscentraleNuon Power IjmondESSO Raffinaderij RotterdamChemelot BKG 02Zeeland Refinery N.V.Sloe Centrale B.V.ENGIE MaximacentraleEnecogenYara Sluiskil B.V. BKG 3Nuon Magnum Centrale Eemsmond

CO2 capture and purification


and transport

CO2 capture processes

Based on Metz, Davidson, De Coninck, Loos, & Meyer, 2005 and Moazzem, Rasul, & Khan, 2012

CO2 capture cost

Influenced by:- CO2 concentration - partial pressure, and- size of the plant

Sector CO2 source Global CO2 emissions (Mt/year)

CO2 concentration in exhaust gas

(vol%)

CO2 capture cost (€/ton)

CO2 partial pressure (bar)

Biomass processes Fermentation 18-200 15-100 10Biogas upgrading ~100Biogas 19-38Bioethanol 100

Power generation Natural gas 146-2288 3-10 30-63Petroleum 750 3-8Coal 9000 10-15 32-46

Industrial processes Cement 2000 14-33 17-68Iron and steel 900-1000 15-35 16-120Ethylene oxide 10-15 30-100 15-63 3Oil refineries 850-900 3-13 90-160LNG sweetening 25-30Ammonia 120-240 ~100 16-33 5

Ethene and other petrochemical processes 155

Hydrogen production 54 70-90 30-40 3-5

Natural gas production 50 5-100 10-30 0.5-44

Aluminum production 8 <1 75-97

Pulp and Paper 7-20 58Other Air 0.04 600-1000

CO2 transport


and transport

CO2 transport

Only with direct air capture, CO2 transport can be avoided. However, large stationary clusters exists e.g. in the harbors which provide opportunities to create a transport network of CO2 to storage sites or shared transport

Depending on the distance and volume, other transport methods are preferred. - Pipelines are preferred for high volumes of CO2 over long distances or when the CO2 needs to be transported

for several years. - For shorter lifetimes, road or rail tankers can be more cost competitive.

CO2 transportPipelinesPipelines typically have a temperature between 13°C and 44 °C and a pressure of 85 to 150 bar.

Operational costs are estimated between 2 and 20 euro per ton CO2 depending on the network settings. Capital costs range between 0.08 and 0.15 euro per ton CO2 and kilometer of pipeline.

TruckFor transport by truck the CO2 is liquified, typically at 17 bar and -30°C.

The cost is estimated at 0.22 euro per ton per km.

StorageCO2 storage costs in liquid form are between 4.46 to 13.86 euro per ton CO2.

CO2 use


CO2 use

Current CO2 use: - Chemical market: ca. 200 million ton CO2 per year- Fuel market: ca. 2 Gt CO2 per year

Future CO2 use: - Chemical market: estimated to be <500 million ton CO2 per year

CO2 useCompound Global Production

(Mton/year)Global CO2 Use

(Mton/year)

CO2 use (ton/ton product)

Production trend(% per year) Price (€/ton)

Inorganic carbonates 200-250 50-70 0.25-0.28 Growing (8)Carbonates 0.2-2 0.005-0.5 0.5-0.75 Growing (300)Polycarbonates 4-5 0.01-1 0.2 Growing (8)Carbamates 5-6 1 Growing (4)Polyurethanes 8-10 0.5 Growing (8)Acrylates 3 1.5 Growing (7)Urea 180-190 112-132 0.73-0.75 Growing (5) 200Methanol 50-80 8-10 1.37-1.49 Growing (7) 300-350Formic Acid 0.6-1 0.8 0.96 Growing (4) 510-1020Ethylene 140 3.13 Growing (7) 900-1100Propanol 1100Syngas Growing (9) 650Acetic anhydride 2.5 1063VAM 6.5 1000-1400Propionic acid 0.5 2210MMA 4.5 1300-3000Adipic acid 3 1700DMC 0.5 748Ethanol 70 Growing (7) 600-750*Lactic acid 0.9Butyric acid 0.8Acetic acid 5-15 Growing 595-900DME 9-20 3-5 Growing (10) 357-650FA 21-27 3.5-5 0.16-2 Growing (7) 298-1000Acetylene Growing (3) 1600MTBE 10 Uncertain 550-750Propylene Growing (7) 900-10002-Phenyllactic acid Specialty chemical 100001-Phenylethanol 3000-5000Acetophenone 3000-5000Benzilic acid 5000-10,000Benzhydrol 5000-10,000Benzophenone 5000-10,000Mandelic acid 5000-10,000Benzyl alcohol 2000-3000Benzaldehyde 3000-50002-(Furan-2-yl)-2-hydroxyacetic acid

Not produced commercially

>10,000

Furfural 0.2-0.3 Growing 1200-1500

Electricity and Hydrogen

H2

Electricity priceConsumption (MWh) Price component Belgium The Netherlands

<20

Incl. all taxes and levies 0.259 0.195Energy and supply 0.067 0.060

Network costs 0.093 0.053Taxes, fees, levies and charges 0.097 0.071

20-500



500-2000



2000-20,000



20,000-70,000



70,000-150,000



>150,000



Eurostat: nrg_pc_205

Electricity prices for non-household consumers in €2017/kWh

In 2017 the electricity price ranged, depending on the total annual consumption, between: - 70 - 260 euro/MWh in

Belgium - 65 - 195 euro/MWh in

the Netherlands

Hydrogen price

Only green hydrogen should be used for CCU purposes.

The price of green hydrogen should be in the range of 2 - 4 euro/kg to be competitive for the chemical industry.

An important factor is the price of renewable electricity and the operating hours of an electrolyser.



The CO2 that is utilized is often reemitted at a later point in time. For that reason it is not possible to just aggregate the used volumes of CO2 as an indicator for its environmental impact. A detailed assessment is needed for every CCU technology compared to its conventional counterpart to calculate the real carbon footprint

Two aspects that are important when speaking about the potential of CCU in climate mitigation change:- The amount of CO2 that can be sequestered - The time over which it can be sequestered


CCU will not account for more than 1% of the mitigation challenge.

However, it has to be remembered that by using captured CO2, the alternative, often fossil-based, feedstock is replaced and that also the emissions of using this fossil-based feedstock are avoided.

Renewable energy and green hydrogen has to be used for CCU purposes. H2

Legal aspects

Legal aspects

Important European regulations:• EU ETS• RED II• CO2 Emission Standards• Clean Vehicle Directive

We only discuss the EU ETS and RED II.

Legal aspects – ETS

ETS in Europe covers 45% of EU’s GHG emissions.

CO2 emissions from:Power and heat generation, oil refineries, steel and iron sector, aluminum, metal, cement, lime, glass, ceramics, pulp and paper, acids and bulk organic chemicals.

N2O and PFCs for limited number of sectors.

Cap and trade principleTotal allowances for fixed installations in 2013 ca. 2 billion. Reduced over time: 1.74% till 2020, 2.2% from 2021.


Source: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/ets_handbook_en.pdf

Allowances:- Free based on benchmarks will be reduced to 0% by 2030 (except for industry with high risk of carbon leakage)- Traded with other companies- Auctions (Average price October 2018: €17/ton) Shortage: fee of €100/ton


Revenues from auctionsAt least 50% should be used for climate and energy related purposes. A list of potential projects is provided in the directive. Also capture and storage of CO2 are included, as well as actions to reduce the emissions of public transport.

In Flanders the revenues are used for ‘Het Vlaams Klimaatbeleidsplan’.

Innovation fund (extension of NER300)Min. 450 million allowances with the goal to stimulate innovation of low-carbon technologies such as CCU and CCS. Max. 60% of the costs can be subsidized and objective criteria are established.


ETS and CCUDiscussions are ongoing on how emissions that are used for the production of other products will be treated.

Emissions that are permanently stored, such as in mineralization, might be exempted from the ETS system, cfr. CCS.

However, emissions that are used for the production of e.g. fuels and plastics are more difficult. Especially if the emissions are used in sectors that are not included in the ETS system.

It is also not clear how this will relate to the REDII (see next slides).

Legal aspects – RED II

Article 25

In order to mainstream renewable energy use in the transport sector, each Member State shall set an obligation on fuel suppliers to ensure the share of renewable energy supplied for final consumption in the transport sector is at least 14% by 2030.

• Biofuels from food or feed crops• Advanced Biofuels• Recycled Carbon Fuels If Member States decide to do so. • Renewable Electricity• Renewable Liquid and Gaseous Fuels of Non-Biological Origin

Also when used as intermediate product for the production of conventional fuels.


Definitions (Article 2)

Renewable liquid and gaseous transport fuels of non-biological origin: liquid or gaseous fuels which are used in transport other than biofuels whose energy content comes from renewable energy sources other than biomass.

Recycled carbon fuels: liquid and gaseous fuels that are produced from liquid or solid waste streams of non-renewable origin which are not suited for material recovery in line with Article 4 of Directive 2008/98/EC and waste processing gases and exhaust gases of non-renewable origin which are produced as an unavoidable and not intentional consequence of the production process in industrial installations.


Article 25 – Paragraph 3

The share of Renewable Energy is based on the average share of renewable electricity in the grid of the country of production, measured 2 years before the year in question.

Only a direct connection enables the purchase of 100% renewable electricity.

In case of renewable liquid and gaseous transport fuels of non-biological origin, a proof of origin might be accepted depending on the Member States’ decision.

Methodology will be set by the Commission before December 2021.


Article 25 – Paragraph 1

Greenhouse gas emission savings from the use of renewable liquid and gaseous transport fuels of non-biological origin excluding recycled carbon fuels needs to be minimally 70% as of January 1, 2021.

For Recycled Carbon Fuels the threshold will be set by the commission before January 1, 2021.

The methodology for assessing the GHG emission savings needs to be set before December 31, 2021. Paragraph 6: it shall be ensured that no credit for avoided emissions will be given for CO2 whose capture already received an emission credit under other legal provisions.

Public perception

Public perception

According to the studies, the majority of the general public is not aware of CCU.

It is known that the opinion of uninformed respondents are weak and unstable and that especially uninformed opinions can be shaped by relevant actors and therefore it is good to gain insight into public perception as early as possible so that future communication strategies can be defined

Diffusion Theory of Rogers

Public perception

Communication strategy concerning CCU (see CarbonNext project for all details): - Make sure that your communication strategy fits the audience you target;- Make sure that your communication strategy fits your targeted product. - Communicate clearly that carbon from waste CO2 is used and not from fossil fuels. - It should be made clear that the CO2 used in a product is only released after combustion. - Communicate clearly that the CCU product, directly replaces the conventional product. - Communicate clearly the product properties and whether these might even be improved compared to the

conventional product. - Explain clearly the carbon footprint. - Communicate clearly that CCU is not a replacement for CCS.

Detailed information can be found in the market study report.

www.projectenop.eu

Documents

T5.2 Market study · A detailed report is available. This presentation is only a summary with the goal to have a quick overview of the report’s content. Icons used in this presentation