T-PARC Operations Meeting Tsukuba, Japan, April 7-8, 2008 Chun-Chieh Wu Department of Atmospheric Sciences National Taiwan University Recommendation from

T-PARC Operations MeetingTsukuba, Japan, April 7-8, 2008

Chun-Chieh WuDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences

National Taiwan University

• Recommendation from IWTC-VI, MWO (Nov. 2006)• Working group report from T-PARC Planning meeting (Dec. 2

007)• DOTSTAR, collaborating with T-PARC, TH08, ProbeX, TCS-

08…..

Outline:

Recommendation from IWTC-VI (San Jose, Costa Rica, Nov. 2006 (Russ Elsberry)

• Targeted observations experiments conducted in the environment of tropical cyclones in recent years have demonstrated value in significantly reducing track forecast errors when ingested in the assimilation process of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models.

• IWTC-VI recognizes adaptive observations as a very promising way to improve tropical cyclone track prediction and therefore recommends that:

• Increased consideration being given to targeted observations.• WMO should encourage expansion of aircraft targeting

capabilities in various tropical cyclone basins.• Research on targeted data should be extended to other

observing systems …and data (e.g. satellite-derived soundings).

• Application of new concepts in predictability and data assimilation should be tested.

• Further research should be undertaken to define the best way to optimize targeted observations.

THORPEX-PARC Experiments and Collaborating Efforts

NRL P-3 and NRL P-3 and HIAPER with theHIAPER with theDLR Wind LidarDLR Wind Lidar

NRL P-3 and NRL P-3 and HIAPER with theHIAPER with theDLR Wind LidarDLR Wind Lidar

Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY

Winter storms Winter storms reconnaissancereconnaissanceand driftsondeand driftsonde

JAMSTEC/IORGGJAMSTEC/IORGG

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Understand and improve the TC predictability -Potential dream cases:• Large spread• bifurcation

(Parsons et al. 2007)

Doppler lidar20° off nadir

dropsondes,u, v, t, rh, p

DOTSTAR

Falcon

T-PARC planning meeting, Kaui, Hawaii, Dec. 2007: Working Group: Targeted observations on TC tracks and recurvature

• Develop a concise description of your scientific objectives (bullet form and a few sentences)

• What platforms and/or instruments (both experimental and operational) are required for your research?

• How will these facilities be used (e.g., flight tracks, frequency of the deployment of sondes, launching of driftsondes in clusters, etc)?

• What are your plans for modeling and impact studies? Real time or retrospective?

• What needs do you have for operational and/or special products?• How will you interact with the other components of T-PARC and

with the collaborative experiments?• Any other action items (particularly with time sensitive needs)?

Chun-Chieh Wu (lead), Rolf Langland, Sharan Majumdar (rapporteurs), Sim Aberson, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Hyun Mee Kim, Takemasa Miyoshi, Hee-Sang Lee, Martin Weissmann, Yeon-Hee Kim, Eun-Hee Jeon

Scientific Objectives (1)

• Test, evaluate and interpret targeting strategies – adjoint, ensemble, other; short-range, medium-range

• Evaluate relative impact of targeted observations – AMVs, driftsondes, lidar, dropsondes, radar

• Improve specification of observation and background error covariance information for data assimilation

• Diagnose dominant synoptic sensitivity from genesis through to ET or landfall

Scientific Objectives (2)

• Develop a conceptual model of TC track predictability

• What are the main differences in the above between the NW Pacific and Atlantic basins?

•Monsoon trough/gyre/depression

•Mid-latitude trough

•Strength of Pacific high

•Subtropical jet

•Binary Interactions (Fujiwhara)

• Design “operational” targeting procedures that can be used to improve TC predictions on a routine basis

Required Platforms and Instruments

• MTSAT-2 rapid-scan AMVs

• Driftsondes

• Dropwindsondes from Astra, Falcon, C-130, P-3

• Aircraft lidar (Falcon, P-3) (not in real-time)

• Aircraft radar (P-3) (not in real-time)

• Flight-level data (all aircraft?)

• SFMR (surface wind speed, rain rate)

• Off-time rawinsondes

• Rawinsondes launched from ships (ProbeX)

• Land-based Doppler radar

• Hourly MTSAT-1R infrared

• Ocean buoy (for coupled models); ProbeX ARGO floats; moored buoy

Use of facilities; Decision-making considerations• Under what scenarios do we make decisions on missions?

• TC is threatening land (Taiwan; Japan; Korea; China)

• Recurvature / track forecast bifurcation

• ET

• Coordination between TCS-08, DOTSTAR, TH08, ProbeX, ET

• Possibility of C-130 and P-3 in Okinawa

• Falcon: Mission selection team (will fly on average every 2nd day; 1 rest day per week). Example of Falcon deployment: Temporarily deploy to Okinawa, fly from Okinawa and land in Atsugi /Yokota/Tokyo, refuel, fly ET mission (to be discussed with ET group) Backup airport in case typhoon is at/near Okinawa? DOTSTAR will take off and land in Taiwan Plane-to-plane and plane-to-ground communication (satellite phone; XChat $10/min) Decisions on driftsondes and MTSAT observations

Real-time and retrospective plans for modeling and impact studies

• Driftsonde, TCS-08, DOTSTAR, ProbeX and TH08 dropwindsondes, off-time and ProbeX ship rawinsondes, ProbeX ARGO, MTSAT regular and rapid-scan (if available) data, C-130 flight-level and SFMR data sent to GTS and all operational models in real-time.

• Near real-time observation impact using NOGAPS adjoint and NASA/GEOS5 adjoint (using all available observations on GTS)

• Retrospective impact studies:

•MTSAT-2 winds (regular plus targeted r/s winds)

•Dropwindsonde data assimilated into GFS (NCEP) and GSM (JMA), NOGAPS (NRL), GDAPS and KWRF (KMA), GFS, NFS and WRF (CWB), WRF (NTU), ECMWF (?), WRF (Yonsei U)

•LIDAR wind and water vapour profiles

Needs for operational and/or special products

• Guidance for targeted observations (sensitivity calculations)

• SV: JMA, NOGAPS (NRL), MM5 (Yonsei), ECMWF

• ETKF: GFS+ECMWF+CMC+NOGAPS+UKMO (Miami), UKMO (UKMO)

• ADSSV (NTU)

• GFS Ensemble Variance (Aberson)

• Model diagnostics, probabilistic forecasts

• TC tracks in TIGGE

• Add higher levels (above 300hPa) to TIGGE ? [250, 200, 100, 50 hPa are available]

How will you interact with the other components of T-PARC and with the collaborative experiments?

• TCS08 (Pat Harr , Michael, Montgomery, Russ Elsberry, Peter Black)

• ET (Pat Harr, Chris Davis and Sarah Jones)

• TH08 (Tetsuo Nakazawa)

• DOTSTAR (Chun-Chieh Wu)

• ProbeX (Hee-Sang Lee, Seon Ki Park)

• Identify the common domain

Genesis/Structure: TCS-08, DOTSTAR

Recurvature and ET: DOTSTAR, ET, TH08, ProbeX

Targeted Observations for Improving Tropical Cyclone Predictability –

DOTSTAR, TH08, PROBEX, TCS-08 and T-PARC

Chun-Chieh Wu Dept. of Atmospheric Science, National Taiwan University

Acknowledging collaborators in DOTSTAR and T-PARC:

Po-Hsiung Lin, K.-S. Chou, Jan-Huey Chen, Shin-Guan Chen, TDRC, COOK (NTU), T.-C. Yeh, Daniel Wu (CWB), Sim Aberson (HRD), T. Nakazawa (JMA/MRI) , M. Yamaguchi (JMA) Sharan Majumdar (U. of Miami), Melinda Peng, Simon Chang, C. Reynolds (NRL), R. Buizza (ECMWF), T. Li (IPRC), Y. Wang, S. Park (Ewha Univ.), H. M. Kim (Yonsei Univ.), H. S. Lee (KMA/METRI), D. Parsons (NCAR), M. Weissmann (DLR)

Research Grants: NSC, CWB, ONR

DOTSTAR (Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the TAiwan Region)

Astra jet

69

JMA,UKMO,

KMA, EC

(Wu et al. 2005, BAMS)

69

FIR

OaklandManila

NahaChina

Taiwan

Taiwan

DOTSTAR observations

Up to present, 28 missions have been conducted in DOTSTAR for 24 typhoons, with 457 dropsondes deployed during the 147 flight hours.22 typhoons affecting Taiwan

12 typhoons affecting (mainland) China

4 typhoons affecting Japan

2 typhoons affecting Korea

4 typhoons affecting Philippines

Challenging science in DOTSTAR – Targeted observation.

Wu et al. (2005 BAMS, 2007a WF) providing useful reference data for CWB and other forecast centers, as well as positive impact to the track forecasts to models in the major operation centers (NCEP/GFS, FNMOC/NOGAPS, JMA/GSM)

Where have all the typhoons gone?

(Wu et al. 2008, MWR)

http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/English/home2_english.htm

Real time targeted observation guidanceFor DOTSTAR, TH08, PROBEX, TCS-08, and T-PARC

DOTSTAR only

Typhoon Wipha, 1200 UTC, 17 September

Dry run for DOTSTAR + TH08

5.5 flight hrs.

16 drops 16 + 14 = 30 drops

5.5 + 4.5 = 10 flight hrs.

JMA moist SV

Dry run for DOTSTAR + TH08

Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) for DOTSTAR in 2008

TY Watching ( before -72 h)

Route design(-72 ~ -48 h)

Crews checkSoftware checkRoute revision(-48 ~ -24 h)

Flight operationData transfer(-3 ~ +3 h)

Data archive

CWBFore. Div.

NTU/Wu-Lin

NPS/HarrMRI/Nakazawa

AIDC/Tsao NTU/Wu-Lin-Chou

NRL/ Reynolds HRD/AbersonUM/MajumdarJMA/YmaguchiNTU/WuYSU/Kim

NTUAIDC CWBFore. Div.

CWBFore. Div.

CWBInfo. Div.

NCEP/GFSFNMOC/NOGAPSJTWCJMA/GSMKMA….

NTU team

Crews

NTU

sensitivity guidance

operational forecasts

data to GTS

NPS/HarrMRI/Nakazawa

Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) for DOTSTAR in 2008

Typhoon watchingNCEP, JMA, FNMOC,ECMWF,CWB (120~144hrs)

Typhoon developing and trackJTWC, JMA, CWB (72~120 hrs)

G-100 flight route planning(1) Around TC (300~400km radius)(2) sensitivity regions sensitivity guidance:DLM, ETKF, singular vector, ADSSV

Decision Making

Crews CallNTU/AIDC

Flight planAIDC, HRD, CWBCrews, TCS-08, TH09, T-PARC

FTP modem checkChecklist checkInsurance checkCWB WINS checkAVAPS checkSatellite phone checkMission briefing

Mission debriefing

D-2 ~ D-1

D0/ before takeoff

On-board data QCShowup in CWB/WINS

D -7 ~ D-3

D -3 ~ D-2

D-1

D0/ in air

Data archive

D0/ landing

D +1

Coordinated with T-PARC, TCS-08, TH08, ProbeX

Coordinated with T-PARC, TCS-08, TH08

?

?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 10

9

Major targeted areas:

1. Surrounding the storm

2. Other high sensitivity areas

3. Capability of the joint flights

Flight time: 6h00m

Flight time: 4h15m

TC Center: 20N, 125E

Dream Case 1: 18 drops (Taiwan); 13 drops (Japan)

Flight time: 5h48m

Flight time: 4h14m

TC Center: 22.5N, 125E


Flight time: 5h57m

Flight time: 4h16m

TC Center: 20N, 127.5E


Flight time: 5h55m

Flight time: 4h16m

TC Center: 22.5N, 127.5E


Flight time: 6h06m

Flight time: 4h16m

TC Center: 20N, 130E


Flight time: 6h00m

Flight time: 4h19m



Flight time: 5h58m

Flight time: 4h15m



Flight time: 5h50m

Flight time: 4h00m

TC Center: 22.5N, 132.5E


Flight time: 5h56m

Flight time: 4h16m



Flight time: 6h05m

Flight time: 4h08m



Issues for discussions

• Decision and coordination for joint operations Flight strategies Priorities of the targets Sensitivity products (websites?) Communication for discussions

• Data sharing and archives Website?

• Post analyses and researches

Documents

T-PARC Operations Meeting Tsukuba, Japan, April 7-8, 2008 Chun-Chieh Wu Department of Atmospheric Sciences National Taiwan University Recommendation from