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rade liberalization and change in poverty status in rural Ethiopia: What are the links?
Adugna Lemi, Ph.D*
Department of Economics Univers Boston i ty of Massachusetts
100 Morrissey Blvd.
Emai .eduBoston, MA 02125 l: adugna.lemi@umbTel: 617‐287‐6962 Fax: 617‐287‐6976
April 2010
Abstract
The impacts and implications of trade liberalization on poverty status of farm households in Africa often come through its effects on prices (of inputs and outputs), government revenues, and employment, among others. The extent of these impacts depends on the degree of rural farmers’ integration into the world market. For the case of Ethiopia, the main channel through which trade liberalization affects farm households is changes in prices of inputs and outputs. The aim of this study is to empirically examine these impacts in Ethiopia using panel data collected from 1500 representative rural households. In addition to the traditional socioeconomic characteristics of households, this study identified key trade reform variables that influence poverty status. The results of the study show that, although resource endowment had positive and significant impact on poverty status, trade liberalization had mixed results on poverty status. Type of crops produced holds the key to the direction of the impact of trade liberalization. As a result of trade liberalization, contrary to expectation, changes in the prices of cash crops (i.e. chat and coffee) increased the probability of remaining poor and falling into poverty. On the other hand, changes in the relative price taple food crops (i.e. Teff and Wheat) increased the probability of escaping poverty and emaining above poverty ine. sr
l
EL ClassificJ ation: D1, F1 ey Words: Liberalization, Poverty, Ethiopia, Africa K *I would like to thank the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) for making the data available for this study. I would also like to thank Cigdem Akin of the George ashington University for her comments and suggestions on an earlier draft. All remaining rrors are mine. We
I. Introduction
The recent debate on globalization, particularly trade liberalization, seems to have reached every corner of the world. In theory, the consensus that trade liberalization benefits every participant in international trade has not been fully substantiated especially for participants too far from market centers and too small to compete (Stiglitz, 2004 and Chang, 2003). The arguments on whether the poor benefit from trade liberalization are even more controversial given the limited information available to substantiate most of them. Trade theories – Richardo’s comparative advantage and Heckscher‐Ohlin’s (H.O.) factor proportion‐ show that trade benefits all countries who participate under the specified assumptions. These theories do not answer the specific questions about whether the poor in each country benefit. The Heckscher‐Ohlin theory explains about winners and losers based on who owns what in each country. However, the assumptions in the H‐O heory are too general to point out the gains to the poor whose access to resources, other tthan their own labor, is limited. Most pervious empirical studies that deal with the implications of trade liberalization are mostly undertaken in Asia, and Latin America. Similar studies on African economies are very scanty, but growing as voices of the poor becoming louder, especially at the meetings of the WTO, the IMF, and the World Bank. The reports coming from countries in Asia show some consensus, in that trade liberalization has positive effects even for poor families. Studies from Latin America, though not as strong as those from Asia, also indicate promises of similar trends (Cline, 2004). For the case of African economies, the existing limited empirical findings report conflicting results. Hence, it is timely and important to undertake such study for cases that represent Africa to fill the empirical gap and to answer the uestion of how trade liberalization affects those rural farm households far away from the qcenter and from the media. The basic question asked in this study is whether the economic reform in general, and trade liberalization in particular, has improved the living standard of farm households to escape poverty in Ethiopia. The results of the study are expected to provide answers to the following questions: What happened to poverty during the harvest years as the government implements reform programs to slowly but surly open up its markets to the nternational market? Which household characteristics help families to benefit from the itrade policy reform to escape poverty? The purpose of this study is, therefore, to undertake empirical study on the impacts of trade liberalization on changes in poverty status using rural household survey data from Ethiopia. The remaining parts of the paper are organized as follows. The next section presents review of previous studies and discussion of Ethiopia’s experience in trade liberalization. The third section presents data and methodology followed by results and discussion. The final section provides conclusions with policy implications.
II. Background
Following the predications of trade theories, Bhagwati and Srinivasan (2002) and Dollar and Kraay (2004) argue that trade liberalization helps reduce poverty through growth,
especially in developing countries1. Harrison et. al. (2004) and Harrison et. al (2003) present empirical results in line with the argument and contend that the poor gains from trade liberalization in Brazil and Turkey, respectively. While others argue that the effect of trade liberalization is not enough and is not straightforward to benefit the poor in developing countries (Carneiro and Arbache, 2003), or has only mild aggregate welfare gains (Vos and Jong, 2003). Negative effects of trade liberalization on poverty are also reported in Lofgren (1999) and other recent studies (Annabi et. al, 2005a; Cororaton, et. al. 2005; Annabi et. al, 2005b; Sharma, 2005). Detailed review of the literature on the relationship between trade liberalization and poverty has also been well documented (for nstance, see Winters, 2002; McCulloch, Winters, and Cirera, 2001; Winters, McCulloch and iMcKay, 2004; Cline, 2004). There are several factors that need to be considered to examine the impacts of trade liberalization on a community or a region. Winters (2002) identified six variables that potentially affect the link between trade, trade policy and poverty. The four factors that are relevant for the case of farmers in rural setting are: the price and availability of goods, factor prices (i.e., income and employment), government’s transfers influenced by changes in trade taxes, and external shocks (in particular, changes in the terms of trade). In poor developing countries the extent of the impact of each of these variables differs depending on the degree of access to markets and the degree of institutional support available to farmers. The intricacy of the impacts of these factors makes it difficulty to pinpoint to the exact effects on groups affected by trade reform.
That led Winters et. al. (2004) to conclude that given the variety of factors to be considered, lack of consensus on the effects of liberalization on the poor and poverty is not surprising. They argue that simple generalization on the effects of trade on the poor and about all countries will just be wrong. Considering the living conditions of the poor and their mobility to look for better income or living conditions, Coxhead (2003) argues that rigorous answers to the effects of liberalization on poverty have proved elusive. The lack of consensus leaves policy makers to look for micro level information on the effects of trade in a given region and/or on a given group in a country. In cases where theoretical predictions and generalizations provide only inadequate information about the effects of liberalization on the poor, empirical work seems a logical approach to answer some of the questions about the relationship between liberalization and poverty. This warrants the need to look to individual countries, and perhaps communities, to understand the peculiar in
circumstances that make them respond differently to different reform measures. Recently studies that investigate the role of trade liberalization rely on Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to compute relevant impact coefficients (more on this in the methodology section). However, for the case of Africa, where available data doesn’t allow to build broad based CGE models, most studies resort to partial equilibrium models. The results of these studies are mixed. The studies which report pro‐poor effects of trade reforms often qualify their findings with other pre‐conditions. Studies by Ocran, et. al. (2006), Fofack, et. al. (2001), and Son and Kakwani (2006) conclude that, on average, liberalization favors non‐poor in their sample countries. Where as Dercon (2002 and 1 Also see Anderson (2004) and Klytchnikova and Diop (2006) for similar results.
2004), and Mcculloch and Calandrino (2003) show that growth, or related trade policy reforms, is pro‐poor, for their sample countries and periods of study. Dercon (2002 and 2006) and Ocran et. at. (2006) reported results of empirical analysis that examined the impacts of economic reform on poverty using household survey data from Africa. More importantly, both studies incorporate specific trade reform variables in their regression analysis to examine impacts on poverty or the poor. Dercon (2002 and 2006)’s studies have used dataset from Ethiopia2, whereas Ocran et. al. (2006) has used similar dataset from Ghana. They followed different estimation approaches. Ocran, et. al (2006) used limited dependent variable estimators since income or consumption of farmers in their sample were not observed. They simply grouped their sample farmers into those who produce cash crops and those who did not produce cash crops during their study period. Dercon (2002 and 2006) has used consumption expenditure data to assess the impacts of economic reform on consumption of the poor and hence change in poverty status. Similar to Dercon(2006)’s approach, the present study estimates change in consumption poverty status equation augmented by trade reform variables to generate relevant coefficients that ffect change in poverty status to confirm or reject the pro‐poor results of previous studies ain the context of Ethiopia. The present study differs from that of Dercon(2006)’s in many ways. First, the present study uses larger sample (1400 households as opposed to 354). Second, I have estimated the determinants of poverty status change, not just change in consumption for the poor, but for those households who escaped, moved into, and remained poor during the study period. Third and most important, I have looked into the impact of trade liberalization hrough changes in prices of six major crops (both cash and food crops) unlike the omposite terms of trade variable employed in Dercon (2006). tc
2.1. Trade liberalization in Ethiopia Since 1991, the year when the current government took power from the military regime, the country has shown some commitments and actual changes in policy stance towards more open and liberal market system. It is noted that the liberalization package of 1992/1993 was formulated with due emphasis on complementarity between trade liberalization and macroeconomic management in shaping the reform outcome (World Bank, 2004). One of the crucial policy reforms relevant for rural economy was devaluation of the birr (Ethiopian currency) in 1992. The direct impact of the devaluation would be for farmers to get better prices for their export crops, such as coffee and chat (a stimulant leaf). Since more than 90% of coffee production comes from small‐farm holders (Dercon, 2002), it is expected that farmers would be the direct beneficiaries of currency devaluation. In addition to reforms on exchange rate, backed by fiscal and monetary policy commitments, the country embarked on dismantling quantitative restrictions and gradually reducing the level and dispersion of tariff rates. As a result of the reform, tariff rates narrowed down rom 0‐240 percent to 0‐80 percent in 1995 and then to 0‐35 percent in 2002 (World Bank, 004). f2
2 Dercon’s studies used data from 1989 and 1994 survey years and for only six of the fifteen survey sites.
Regarding export sector, the major agricultural and related export items are coffee, chat, oilseeds, pulses, livestock, and livestock products. Duties on all exports other than coffee were lifted in early 1990s. The coffee export duties were unified and set at 6.5%3. Exporters are exempted from the duties when export prices are below US $0.55 for unwashed coffee and US $ 1.05 for washed coffee. There were also significant regulatory reforms that aim at promoting export. The government dismantled government monopoly in coffee trade and abolished the mandatory approval requirement for export contracts by the National Bank of Ethiopia. The policy reform also include introduction of foreign exchange retention scheme that allow exporters to retain part of (10 %) the export proceeds. Other schemes designed to support exporters include assistance with manufacturing warehouses and an import duty rebate to provide exporters with imported inputs at world market prices (World Bank, 2004). One would also expect that these policy changes promote export of not only traditional cash crops but also food crops often traded only locally (like Teff, wheat, and maize) and produced by most farm families in rural Ethiopia. In 2008 Ethiopia launched the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) market place to provide market integrity and to enhance market efficiency through rural electronic price ticker system. So far the ECX has been providing its services for major food crops although recently it has added coffee to its system. Other service that the ECX has initiated is the establishment of customs warehouse, both for importers and exporters, to store their goods in case they could not finalize their trade deals on time. Export Promotion Agency is also one of the support institutions that has been established by the government to support xport of mainly agricultural goods, which account for over 87% of the country’s export in erecent years. Given these policy changes and incentives, it seems that the export sector is attractive and lucrative sector to invest in, however, there are still some constraints ranging from institutional to market access for exporters. The livestock sector, for instance, may face even bigger hurdle than other export goods, due to disease and animal feed shortages. For other exports, like coffee, oil seeds and other cereal products, price instability in the world market has been pushing farmers to go back to traditional food crop production. One has to look not only into the export sector but also the import sector when assessing the impact of trade liberalization on farmers. Farmers often use fertilizers, pesticides, farms tools, and improved seeds on their farm. Most of these farm inputs (especially fertilizers and pesticides) are imported and their prices have been increasing as demand has been increasing over the years. In some cases, government had to subsidize some of these inputs, especially fertilizers, to make sure that farmers use them to improve productivity. It is with this backdrop that this study plans to assess the role of trade liberalization on poverty in Ethiopia.
III. Data and Methodology
The Department of Economics at Addis Ababa University in collaboration with various institutions (including Oxford University, UK and International Food Policy Institute, USA), have gathered socio‐economic data from 1500 representative farm households from fifteen
3 In the past two years, the country has abandoned all export taxes including the 6.5% imposed on coffee, it is not clear if this is a temporary relief time for exporters or permanent policy change.
survey sites in Ethiopia since 19944. In 2000, the survey was in its sixth round (although not on a regular interval); the same households were interviewed to obtain information on various modules. The core modules that appear on the questionnaire are information on demographics, assets, farm inputs, farm outputs, consumption, livestock, and health. The fifteen survey sites are scatted across four regions (Amhara, Oromia, SNNP5, and Tigray) of he country representing different ecology of the highland farming systems with the
texception of pastoral systems (see figure 1 in appendix for the location of survey sites). The survey dataset over the period 1994‐2000 is a unique household panel data to investigate both the static and dynamic nature of poverty in Ethiopia. Table A.1 in appendix displays the survey sites, the main harvest months, and the time of interview for the first four rounds. The dataset has been used previously to address related issues; for instance see Dercon (2002) for consumption effects of economic reform, and Dercon and Krishman (1998) for dynamics of poverty, Lemi and Huang (2003) for family labor allocation, and Lemi (2006) for the determinants of the dynamics of income diversification.
This study will use datasets from two of the six rounds6 (i.e. 1994 and 1997) to investigate the effects of trade policy reform. The selected survey years (1994‐1997) are periods during which the country adopted significant economic policy reforms and structural adjustment programs. Since the data has been collected from the same households for all he rounds (with very few attrition rates), it is suitable to analysis the impacts of policy treforms on the same households overtime. As indicated above, there are several policy reform variables, including prices of outputs and prices of inputs that affect the level of poverty in a country. One of the channels7 through which liberalization of trade affects farmers is through prices, of both inputs and outputs. In this study, I will use the change in prices of the major crops in Ethiopia as indicators for trade policy reform. The change in prices of the major export crops (i.e. coffee and chat) are the focus of this study. In addition to these two major export crops, I also include changes in prices of other major staple food crops produced in Ethiopia, namely, Teff8, wheat, barley, and maize. For input prices, I will use change in costs (price) of one of the major farm inputs that farmers use: fertilizer. Almost all fertilizer used in the country is imported and the effect of trade liberalization can affect farmers income or consumption. The other input that farmers use on their farm is pesticide, which is also
4 Although the survey started in 1989, only six (drought-prone sites) of the fifteen sites were covered during the 1989 survey year. The next four survey rounds were conducted in 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997. 5 SNNP stands for Southern Nation and Nationalities People. For the survey the region was divided into three sub-regions (region 7, 8, and 9). 6 These two years are selected for two reasons. First, 1994 and 1997 give us a natural experiment where one can see the effect of both policy and weather shocks. It helps to see how farmers respond when they face these shocks at the same time. Second, the other two survey years in between (1995 and 1996) are too close to the base year (1994) to see any significant response from the farmers. The later years (especially 1999 and 2000) may be ideal to conduct longer panel analysis and they may also introduce other shocks. However, for these years some of the variables that refer to demographics and household composition and related covariates are not consistent with previous year variables and it creates difficulty to pool the data together from these years. 7 The other channels are fiscal policy change, change in taxation and terms of trade effects (see Winters, 2002). 8 Teff is a tiny cereal grain native to the African country of Ethopia. It is one of the of the staple food items in the country and used to make a pancake-like bread.
affected by trade policy reforms. However, the use of pesticide is not widely spread compared to the use of fertilizer among farmers with small land holdings. Hence, I will use he price of fertilizer at the nearest district market to examine its impact on poverty status tof farmers. The debate over whether income or consumption provides better information for the study of poverty dynamics is still not settled. There are those who favor consumption (Dercon, 2002) for its reliability and completeness since it captures actually spent expenses. While others favor income as a measure of poverty dynamics since it reflects not only consumption but also income growth that has been saved or invested to build asset (Nicita, 2004b). Others argue that asset should be the key indicator of poverty status since it is stable and also includes both private and public assets to supplement other money‐metric indicators (Booysen, et. al. 2008). However, the approach that uses asset index to construct poverty lines relies on categorical variables that indicate ownership of some assets to extrapolate using different approaches. This makes it difficult to know the exact magnitude of asset ownership to rely on asset index. It is also true that in developing and less developed countries where market integration is at the lowest stage and on‐farm consumptions of local products is common, asset values are difficult to determine. Some of these features also make income poverty line an unlikely candidate. Income data is unreliable since often times longer recall period is used to collect income data compared to, for instance, consumption data. Due to the unreliability of income data and limited vailability of asset data in developing and less developed countries, most poverty studies ause consumption expenditure data to calculate consumption expenditure poverty line. The present study argues that poverty dynamics, in the context of the survey adopted here, is better reflected using consumption data mainly due to often understated income amounts and longer recall period used to gather income data compared to consumption data. On top of that, most rural household consumptions in Ethiopia, and in most African economies for that matter, are on farm consumption and may not be recorded as income very often. Poverty status change should also focus on changes in living standard of the poor, which is mainly manifested through increase in consumption in countries like Ethiopia. Using asset, or income, or consumption data may not guarantee consistent findings on the determinants of poverty dynamics. However, the yardstick used in any study needs to be consistent with the underlying dataset of each study.
Even for those studies that use consumption to generate change in poverty status, there are variations in results on the key driver for the change in poverty status. One of the reasons for the variations in the results of the impact of trade reform on poverty is the type of methodology used in each study. Often, due to lack of micro‐level data, researchers resort to use of simulations, more specifically Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models9. Ideal approach would be to relax the assumptions embedded in CGE models as much as possible and to use actual data to see what really the data tells us at the micro‐level. General equilibrium models are often used to simulate the impacts of a change in key trade liberalization variables on welfare of a nation as a whole (Hertel et. at, 2003; Annabi et. al,
9 For survey of methodologies used to analyze the impacts of trade liberalization on poverty see Hertel and Jeffery (2005).
2006; Lofgren, 1999; Lofgren et. al, 2002). One of the problems with this approach is that, as stated above, some of the assumptions used to build these models may not hold in every part of a country and for all goods. These methods are mostly ex‐ante exercises to predict the poverty effects of trade liberalization (or other reforms for that matter). Given the load of theoretical assumptions and one‐fits‐all structural models, general equilibrium models serve only as a second best alternative to the use of survey data to generate actual ex‐post impact parameters. To this effect, whenever data is available, studies use partial quilibrium analysis to address welfare effects of reforms (Ravillion, 1990; Dercon, 2002; ePorto 2003). One other issue with the use of CGE in the context of Ethiopia is lack of some of the parameters required to build CGE models. Available information is just not enough to build such models. Partial equilibrium models are commonly used in the case of African economies in general and for Ethiopia in particular to address most micro‐level issues in rural communities. Partial equilibrium analysis, which takes into account only those variables that directly affect the poor and poverty (price, income, and consumption, among others) and relate them to the characteristics of the farm households or communities under consideration, are emerging as an alternative method (McCulloch and Yiying, 2003; Niimi, Vasudeva‐Dutta, and Winters, 2003; Litchifield, McCulloch and Winters, 2003). The studies that rely on partial equilibrium analysis adopted different econometric approaches as their data fits, including simple OLS regressions of income or consumption on trade indicators and estimation of price elasticities of income or consumption (Nicita, 2004a; Porto, 2003; Ravallion, 1990). Others use more advanced estimation approaches, like multinomial logit (Niimi, Vasudeva‐Dutta and Winters, 2003) and survival analysis (McCulloch and Yiying, 2003 and Litchfield, McCulloch and Winters, 2003) to take advantage of the nature of data used in each study. In developing countries, especially in Africa, the role of shocks on poverty and the poor is often emphasized in addition to economic reforms and growth (see Dercon, 2002 for Ethiopia; McCuloch, and Caladrino, 2003 for China; Appleton, 2001 for Uganda; Fofack, et. al. 2001 for Burkina Faso; and Ocran, et. al, 2006 for Ghana). These approaches, as is the case for the present study, mostly adopt partial equilibrium analysis to take advantage of the rich data set and to answer questions about the impact of trade on poverty. For all these estimations the first step is to construct poverty lines at the country, region or village level. The next section sheds some light on the construction of poverty lines for the two survey years used in the present study. 3.1. Poverty Lines One of the corner stones of poverty analysis is the computation of a poverty line for a country or a group under investigation. Ravallion (1998) defined a poverty line as the monetary cost to a given person, at a given place and time, of a reference level of welfare. People who do not attain that level of welfare are deemed poor. Others define that a poverty line measures the minimum income or consumption expenditure or asset required to attain basic daily activities for a person. Although it sounds simple in the definition, there are serious disagreements on what the daily activities include, whether income, expenditure or asset should be the yardstick, and how to adjust the poverty line over space and time (Ravallion, 1994; Ravallion and Bidani, 1994). Recent studies argue that these
concerns are not easy to resolve especially in the time of rapidly changing world (Osberg and Xu 2008) and at a time when the relevance of previously ignored poverty dimensions come to light (Alkire 2007). Despite these concerns, practitioners and applied cademicians are eager to come up with a practical way that can lead them to a specific apoverty measurement. The two main methods to calculate a poverty line are Food‐Energy Intake (FEI) and Cost of Basic Needs (CBN) approaches (Ravallion, 1994 and 1998). The latter approach is common practice in most studies in developing countries. In a country with diverse communities, farming systems, and cultures, often times locality specific poverty lines are computed to reflect the tastes and preferences. Ravallion (1994) argues that the relationship between food energy intake and consumption or income is not going to be the same across egions/sectors/dates, but will shift according to differences in tastes, activity levels, rrelative prices, publicly provided goods and other unobserved factors. Despite the call for locality specific poverty lines, the World Bank’s attempt to come up with an international poverty line for the entire developing countries is criticized as overly simplistic10. For instance, if one adopts the $1 or $1.25 per day per person income poverty line of the World Bank, one would find an overstatement of poverty rate (perhaps close to 60%‐75%) in Ethiopia. In Ethiopia, using the national poverty lines, the poverty rate is estimated to be less than that of the World Bank’s poverty rate estimate by about 10‐20 percentage points. As a result, most studies in developing countries use survey data to come up with national poverty line and/or locality specific poverty lines in a country. Osberg and Xu (2008) show that, for the case of China, the commonly accepted international poverty line defined as one half median national equivalent income is ecoming increasingly relevant for a changing world. For poverty lines reported by
ppendix.bprevious studies for different years see Table A.3 in a For the case of Ethiopia, there are several studies, that we are aware of, that computed poverty lines using the same data used in the present study. Dercon and Krishnan (1998), Dercon (2006), and Bigeston and et. al.(2003), Kebede et. al. (2005) and Bigeston and Abebe (2008) have computed poverty lines for rural and Urban (only the latter two) Ethiopia. They have used Cost of Basic Needs approach to arrive at the computed poverty lines for each of the survey sites under study. Dercon and Krishnan (1998) arrived at the average poverty line of 528 birr per person for 1994 where as Kebede et. al. (2005) arrived at 726 birr per person for 1995 using the same data and similar methods. Welfare Monitoring Unit (WMU) of Ethiopia also came up with 1073 birr per person for 1995 for rural Ethiopia using other survey datasets11. If we go by the World Bank’s $1 per day per person poverty line, the comparable annual poverty line for Ethiopia would be 2190 birr (at 1995 exchange rate of $1 = 6 birr) per person for 1995. Using Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke (1984), the internally computed poverty lines are 380.2 birr per adult in 1994 and 466.6 birr per adult in 1997 for the fifteen survey sites in this study.
10 Some studies use the World Bank’s international poverty line for cross country comparisons (For instance, see Banerjee, Abhijit V., and Esther Duflo, 2007). 11 Gebremedhin and Whelan (2008) also estimated urban poverty line for Ethiopia; the average poverty line from their estimation is 951 birr per person for 2000.
Almost all of these studies use Cost of Basic Needs method to arrive at the minimum expenditure to perform basic daily activities. The poverty rates calculated by each of these studies are slightly different from each other. The difference may be due to the food basket selected in each case to measure the cost of basic needs, the year under investigation, and the different survey data used in each study. Dercon and Krishnan (1998)’s estimate of poverty line for the year 1994 fits best for this study given that they have used the same survey data from 1994. Hence we have adopted the site specific poverty lines reported in heir study. It is important to note that the poverty lines are adjusted for household size by tdividing the total annual family expenditure by adult equivalent in each family. Although most of the above studies analyzed poverty dynamics, it is not clear how they arrived at the consumption poverty line for the subsequent years. Other studies (for instance, Dercon and Krishnan (1998), Bigeston et. al. (2003) and Bigsten and Shimeles (2008)) have used either the poverty line of the base year as deflator or price index of local products at the local market. In this study, national food price index is used to calculate the real consumption expenditure for year 1997 to arrive at the consumption poverty line in 1997. It is important to also note that in year 1997 national consumer prices (and food rices) were below that of 1994, hence 1997 values were deflated using the food price pindex. Table A.4 in appendix reports changes in poverty rate between 1994 and 1997 using site specific consumption poverty lines discussed above. It can be noted that over 62% of households who were below poverty line in 1994 remained poor in 1997. Out of those households who were above poverty line in 1994 close to 43% fell into poverty in 1997. The overall poverty rate for the country was about 53% both in 1994 and 1997. These numbers refer to households in the rural part of the country. As reported in MOFED (2002), the poverty rate could be lower if one takes into account urban households as well. For instance, MOFED (2002) reported that in 1995/96, the national poverty rate was 45.5% with higher rural poverty rate (47%) than urban (33%) (Table A.2). It is not fare to ompare the two poverty rate estimates since different methodology and datasets are used o arrive at the poverty lines used to estimate poverty rates. ct 3.2. Multinomial Logit and Relative Risk Ratio It has become common practice to model poverty status of households using multinomial ogit model. The Multinomial Logit model analyses the probability of being in a particular overty state out of several unordered alternatives (Niimi et. al. 2003). lp The probability that household i experiences outcome j is expressed as (Greene, 1997):
.4,3,2,1,)(Pr 4
1
===
∑=
je
ejYob
k
iik
ij
χβ
χβ
Where Yi is the outcome (i.e. poverty status) experienced by household i, Xi is the (n x 1) vector of household i characteristics, and βj is the (n x 1) vector of coefficients on Xi applicable to households in state j. For the model to be identified, one J must be chosen as the base category and set to zero. All other sets are then estimated in relation to this base poverty status. In this study four poverty status changes are considered between 1994 and 1997, namely, remained poor in both years (1), escaped poverty in 1997 (2), fell into poverty in 1997(3) and remained non‐poor during both years (4). As a reference, outcome 1 (i.e. households who remained poor in both years) is set to zero to examine how trade policy and other variables help households to escape from poverty (2). I have also used outcome 4 (i.e. households who have never been poor in both years) to examine how trade policy and other determinants affect being poor in both years and falling into poverty in 997. The numbers in brackets are the coded assigned to each poverty status for 1programming purposes. I report the impact of each explanatory variable on the relative risk ratios (RRR) rather than the actual coefficients, which gives us the odds‐ratio. The relative risk ratios are the ratio of the probability of each outcome relative to the probability of the base category. If e set Y = 1 as our base category, the relative risk ratio for Y = 2 for a change in each ariable X is given by: wv
ie
Yob )1Pr = Where e
Y χβ2
()(=
ob 2=Pr
B is the relative risk ratio for a unit change in the value of variable X. The coefficients represent the impact of a one point change in each explanatory variable on the relative risk ratios of the household being in each outcome. A coefficient less than one imply that the variable reduces the probability of the household being in the nominated category. The percentage change in the probability is given by the coefficient minus one, multiplied by one hundred. This rule applies to both dummy and continuous variables. The multinomial logit is most easily interpreted as giving conditional probabilities. Given that being poor in both periods (outcome 1) is the base category, the coefficients for outcome 2 poor in 1994 but not in 1997 – escaping poverty) tell us the probabilities of moving out of overty relative to being poor in both years. (p 3.3. Correlates of Poverty Dynamics To address the stated objectives and to answer the questions poised above, this study will estimate multinomial logit model with the relevant correlates that affect poverty status of rural households in Ethiopia. The right hand side variables are divided into four groups: Demographic composition, asset and input, seasonality, and trade policy reform variables. I have used variables from the survey data to approximate each of these categories. For some of the variables, which show no or little changes during the two survey years, we ave used the 1994 values of these variables to examine the impact of initial conditions on he poverty status of households. ht
A handful of studies analyzed poverty dynamics and transition in Ethiopia using the same dataset [Kebede, et. al. (2005), Bigsten et. al. (2003), and Bigsten and Shimeles (2008)] and identified relevant correlates. Although these studies focused on the determinants of poverty transition and dynamics in rural Ethiopia, none of them analyzed the direct impact of trade liberalization with the exception of Dercon (2006). Dercon (2006) looked at the determinants of change in consumption for poor families using smaller sample (only six of the fifteen survey sites) between 1989 and 1994. The study reported that land, terms of trade (producers’ price index to consumers’ price index), rain shock, and road infrastructure are positive and significant determinants of the change in poverty status (i.e. change in consumption) between the two survey years. Terms of trade variable is the key variable that captures economic reform for rural households in Dercon’s study. This key variable is the weighted sum of the prices of traded crops in each survey site. As such it only reflects crude reform measure for some households who cultivate and consume only some crops out of the many crops produced and traded in the market. The study concluded hat reform programs do not deliver similar benefits to all the poor and further indicated tthat if there had been no reform, poverty would have increased in 1994. Bigsten et. al. (2003) have used multinomial logit model, as I did in this study, to estimate the determinants of poverty status in rural Ethiopia. In their study and in Kebede et. al. (2005) poverty statuses were regressed on initial (1994) socioeconomic characteristics of households to determinant factors that had significant impact on poverty status change. To analyze the effects of trade policy reform between 1994 and 1997, I augmented their model using changes in a detailed version of trade policy variables identified in Dercon (2006) They estimated coefficients for those households who were permanently poor and permanently non‐poor compared to those households in transition (escaping and re‐entering poverty). From their results it is difficult to read what determines the transition in poverty. In the present study, I explicitly estimate coefficients on what determines escaping and re‐entering poverty between the two years in addition to factors that lead to persistent poverty over time. In addition to the initial conditions (1994) used in most of these studies, I augmented the poverty status model by changes in real and relative prices of major crops. he variables in the right hand side of the estimated equations are discussed below. For etailed description of each variables, see variable definition appendex. Td Demographic composition and education variables In agrarian countries like Ethiopia, one of the resources that households have control over is labor. Hence human resource is the key input in farming and other activities. The composition and education level of household members is therefore important to determine the human capital endowment of a household. To account for this in estimation equations, I have used family size in adult equivalent, age of household head, dummy for female headed households, number of male adults, number of female adults, number of dependents in the family, and number of students in a household below age 15. Since there was no significant change between the two years, I have used initial values (1994) of these variables in the estimation model. The choice of these variables is partly based on the esults of previous studies and availability of data to capture family human capital esources. rr
Asset and Input variables For resource‐constrained farm households farm tools, access to credit, and other farm inputs help them to significantly improve their productivity and hence their consumption. It is believed that access to these assets and inputs is expected to change poverty status over time. In the present study value of major agricultural tools, access to loan, amount of land owned, and the value of livestock owned are key assets that are expected to play significant role in rural Ethiopia. I expect that the higher the value or access to each of these resources gives households the opportunity to escape poverty. Only initial values of these variables (except for the case of loan) were used, given limited transaction in these assets n rural Ethiopia, it is not far fetched to assume that no significant change in these variables ook place during the time period considered in this study. it Seasonality Seasonality is another factor that affects poverty status of a family in rural Ethiopia. Issues of seasonality could be within a given year or across years. Given the two major crop seasons (i.e. meher and belg), farmers may be idle during times other than the crop seasons. It is also important to note that due to different weather conditions year after year, one expects to see variations across years, which may partly explain the poverty status change of some of the households between the two years. During the survey years (i.e. 1994 and 1997), as indicated in Table A.1 in appendix, different time periods, and hence difference recall periods, had been used for each village to collect data. To account for this, I have created dummy variables for the differences in the choice of survey months (and hence ecall months) for each year. The season dummies take value of 1 for a village if the survey rwas conducted in that village during the slack months of the year and takes 0 otherwise. One of the key differences between these two years, when it comes to agriculture, is that year 1994 is considered as the year with sever weather conditions that was not favorable for crop production; the other difference was that year 1997 was considered as the year where farmers have been fully exposed to the policy reforms undertaken by the government. One needs to keep in mind the change in weather condition when interpreting the results, although it is difficult to distinguish between the effects of weather changes and policy change on the status of poverty in 1997. To control for the variation in weather condition, I have used amount and timing of rainfall in the estimation equations. However, none of these rainfall variables turns out to be significant. To save space, I have not eported the estimation that includes rainfall variables, but the results are available on equest. rr Trade policy reform variables Two channels through which trade liberalization affects poverty are considered: Price channel and employment channel. Effects through price channel come either through direct price effects, and/or production effects. Prices of tradable goods are expected to change after liberalization and hence prompt more production of tradable goods. I have used
changes in the prices of major food crops (teff12, wheat, maize, and barley) and cash crops (chat13 and coffee) to investigate the implication of these price changes on poverty status of households. The changes in prices are in real terms. There may be other price effects through imported input, fertilizer, which has been used by most rural farmers who have access to transportation. Farmers may benefit from changes in the price of crops that they have sold, however, they might also benefit from the change in the price of fertilizer as a result of liberalization. I expect that price of fertilizer declined due to trade liberalization and households benefit from the decline in price. To account for the change in relative price effects, I have computed relative prices of each crop (ratio of individual crop prices to cost of fertilizer). Hence, changes in the relative prices of all the tradable crops were also used in addition to the changes in the real prices of each crop. It is expected that for those escaping poverty and those remained non‐poor, positive and significant coefficients imply hat households benefit from higher output prices and/or lower fertilizer prices for that tparticular crop. There may be households who could not benefit from the price effects due to on farm consumption of what they have produced. To explicitly account the effects of price change, I have controlled for whether households sold part of their products, both in belg and meher seasons, to make sure that households are actually engaged in the market transactions sing dummy variable that takes 1 if a household sold part of its production and 0 uotherwise. There are other factors that one needs to incorporate in the analysis of poverty dynamics. For instance, there may be unobserved regional or village factors, infrastructure or access to markets, quality of land in each village, proximity to the nearest input distribution centers, and access to other social services, like school and health centers. Ideally, all these variables should be included in the estimation model to identify the role of each factor. One issue with this is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to get sufficient information to proxy some of these factors for each village. Short of separate information for each of these factors, I resort to using village dummy variable to account for these village specific factors. Hence, in each regression 17 village dummies are created to control for these unobserved factors. Most village dummy coefficients are significant however, since the interest of this tudy is not about the specific village factors I have not reported village dummy coefficients sto save space. Table A.5 in appendix presents descriptive statistics of some key variables for the four groups and for the whole sample. The average age of household head is the lowest (44.3 years) for those who fell into poverty in 1997. Those who escaped poverty tends to be older (close to 50 years) compared to the other group. It is surprising that younger adults fall into poverty more than older ones. The largest proportion of female headed households falls into the group that remained poor in both years. The two key resources that seem to partially determine poverty status are size of land and livestock owned. Those who fall into poverty in 1997 and those who remained poor own less land and less livestock in 1994. The proportion of households who sold at least part of their production increased in 1997
12 It is a tiny grain seed that is used to make Ethiopia staple food – Injera, flat bread. 13 Stimulant often exported to the Middle East and other parts of Africa.
compared to 1994 for all poverty status groups during meher harvest season. This may be an indication of the level of production in 1997 due to relatively suitable weather. In terms of off‐farm activities, the two extreme groups, persistently poor and those who remained non‐poor, are in the opposite end of the participation. Persistently poor households engaged more in off‐farm activities in 1997, where as those households who remained poor engaged less in 1997. This, again, confirms the view that those who focused on own farm production (due to resource endowments) end up producing and consuming more and as a result avoid falling into poverty. One other pattern to note is the value of coffee production. It is puzzling to see that the increase in coffee production in 1997 is the highest for the two groups (persistently poor and those who fell into poverty) who did worse in terms of poverty status. Similar pattern is observed for the production of barley. It is tempting to conclude from the descriptive statistics that those who increased production of one of the cash crops (i.e. coffee) did not benefit in terms of change in poverty status and hence iberalization was not pro‐poor. One needs to see the regression results if this pattern holds or all cash crops and for oth r food crops as well. lf e IV. Results and Discussion Before presenting the results from the multinomial logit regression, it is important to note that I have tried different alternative variables to capture factors that seem relevant from previous studies. As indicated in Dercon (2006), it may matter whether sample households are surplus or deficit farmers in terms of their production net of consumption. Some households sold part of their production to get cash with which they can buy some other goods and supplies from the market. This transaction tells us that the farmers engaged in market transaction to sell some part of their production and one expects these farmers may not sell their production unless they make sure that their families are food secure. To take this in to account, I have created dummy variable that take a value of 1 if a households sold part of its production and 0 otherwise for both years and for both seasons (belg and meher). Although it does not directly tell us if a household is in a surplus or in a deficit, it tells us the extent of cash available to them during the survey years to buy other market goods, which may make a different on poverty status. The other variable is change in employment as a response to market reform. To take into account employment impact of market reform, I have incorporated off‐farm employment indicator to examine if there is any significant influence on poverty status as a result. Finally, rainfall timing and amount was also incorporated into the regression to control for shock to the agricultural sector to examine if rainfall factors had any influence on change in poverty status. The regression results show that none of these variables matter in influencing change in poverty status. The changes in these factors are either not related to poverty status at all or are not statistically significant to make any difference on change in the probability of being in a given poverty status. I think that the latter is the case since there are quite a number of anecdotal evidences that suggest, in some parts of the country, some of these factors are relevant determinants of change in living standard of farm households.
The Persistently Poor Probability of being persistently poor increases for female headed households and slightly as the age of the head of the household rises. On the other hand, the probability of being persistently poor decreases for households with a high number of younger students, as well as for those who own large farm land and livestock. Of the market reform variables, change in the price of chat increases the probability of being persistently poor and change in the relative price of Teff decreases the probability (Table 1). All other right side variables remain statistically insignificant. The negative effect of chat price on poverty status seems t odd with the expectation about the impact of liberalization. However, it is important to anote that some anecdotal stories seem to substantiate these results. Table 1 inant of pers or: e ratios (D nge overty
ntly poor, wi n po as ou. Determ
Status (Persiste Variables
istently poth never beeTraditional determinants
Relativ below t‐values
risk verty lineWith changes in
V: Chaa base t‐values
in Ptcome)) With changes in the relative pricemajo
prices of major crops s of
r crops
t‐values
Family size 1.167 (1.72) 1.175 (1.78) 0.865 (‐0.68)Age of household head 1.015* (2.06) 1.014 (1.83) 1.017 (0.77)Female headed 2.146** (2.68) 2.282** (2.85) 6.224* (2.40)Number of males 0.865 (‐1.00) 0.879 (‐0.88) 1.483 (1.16)Number of females 0.859 (‐1.05) 0.847 (‐1.13) 1.618 (1.51)Number of dependents 1.065 (0.50) 1.062 (0.47) 3.029** (3.29)Number of students under 15 0.676* (‐2.14) 0.677* (‐2.12) 0.117** (‐3.17)Value of agricultural tools 1.001 (0.79) 1.001 (0.83) 1.011 (0.96)Took out loan in 1993 0.532* (‐2.05) 0.547 (‐1.94) 0.339 (‐1.55)Took out loan in 1994 1.050 (0.16) 1.075 (0.24) 0.223 (‐1.64)Total land holding 0.674** (‐3.03) 0.690** (‐2.80) 1.221 (0.43)Amount of fertilizer used 0.999 (‐0.90) 0.999 (‐0.85) value of livestock owned 0.999*** (‐3.98) 0.999*** (‐3.84) 0.999* (‐2.44)Seasonality in 1994 1.227*** (3.73) 0.0928*** (‐19.2) 0.095*** (‐12.5)Seasonality in 1997 0 .0928*** (‐20.1) 0.0963*** (‐19.3) 1.368 (1.57)Change in price of Teff 1.701 (1.01) Change in price of Barely 0.811 (‐0.35) Change in price of Maize 0.529 (‐1.38) Change in price of Wheat 1.378 (0.70) Change in price of Coffee 0.960 (‐0.66) Change in price of Chat 1.283** (2.62) Change in rel. price of Teff 0.00000595* (‐2.29)Change in rel. price of Barely 0.000462 (‐1.94)Change in rel. price of Maize 0.00756 (‐0.46)Change in rel. price of Wheat 0.000197 (‐1.31)Change in rel. price of Coffee 2.080 (1.37)Change in rel. price of Chat 0.420 (‐0.54)Observations 1415 1415 383 r2_p 0.273 0.280 0.468 Chi2 933.6 956.5 389.3
p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001
That is, in some part of the country, especially in the eastern part where chat production is dominant, farmers switched from production of food grains to cash crop, like chat, expecting to receive attractive price right after trade liberalization. However, in terms of food consumption, the farmers end up purchasing food crops from the market for which the prices were also rising. If the farmers do not receive enough cash from the sale of chat, they end up consuming either less than before or just about the same amount. The erishable nature of chat and the instability in the price of chat in the international market ake farmers likelihood less stable and hence resulted in no change in their poverty status.
pm
The positive impact of the change in the relative price of Teff, which is a staple food in Ethiopia, is not surprising since the price of Teff has been increasing since market reform, and unlike chat, which is perishable, farmers can store Teff to garner higher price at the right time. Teff is one of the most expensive of all the food grains produced in Ethiopia. In fact the country sometimes export it to neighboring countries and to as far places as North America and Europe, although government imposes restrictions on its export to stabilize domestic market for food grains. As such, those farmers who manage to produce Teff, given that they have suitable soil and weather condition, can improve their livelihood. Most other crops (especially barley and maize), although they have the right sign on their oefficients, their influence is not strong enough to change the poverty status of farm ouseholds. ch What pushed farm households into poverty? The factors that pushed farmers into poverty are more or less similar to the factors that kept farmers to remain poor. Although demographic and family composition played a relatively less role to influence the probability of moving into poverty, households’ resource endowments played significant role. The size of farm land owned and the value of livestock owned lowered the probability of falling into poverty in 1997 just as in the case of lowering the probability of being persistently poor. Among market reform variables, changes in the prices of both cash crops (i.e. coffee and chat) and changes in the relative price of Teff also played statistically significant role. Changes in the price of chat and relative price of coffee had increased the probability of falling into poverty in 1997, where are change in the relative price of Teff lowered the probability of falling into poverty (Table 2). The story is similar to that of the persistently poor. The counter‐intuitive negative effects of coffee and chat can be explained by the textbook examples of the problems of
. exporting primary goods, i.e. instable prices and limited value added to the raw products
The factors that pushed farmers in to poverty in 1997 have significant policy relevance. One can argue that demographics also played a role for the case of persistently poor and it may be far fetched to blame only trade policy reform. But for the case of households who fell into poverty demographics played little role. The two key predicators are resource endowment (land and livestock) and changes in prices of cash crops and Teff. However, the increase in consumption due to land, livestock, and change in the price of Teff was not enough for these farmers to stay above poverty line. For this group of farmers, the federal government and the regional administration need to intensify support in areas of increased livestock ownership and access to markets for the products from which the farmers seems
to gain, especially Teff, so that they can get enough boost in consumption to join the rank of non‐poor in the coming years.
Unlike the case of persistently poor households, seasonality played no role in influencing change in poverty status. The sign of seasonality coefficients change across different specification. This was also true for the persistently poor estimations reported in Table 1. As price variables are added into the base specification with only traditional determinants, the seasonality coefficients change sign. One may suspect that there may be correlation between seasonality variable and the changes in prices. I have run simple correlation between the seasonality variables and changes in the prices of all the major crops. It is only for one case that I have found a correlation coefficient close to 0.5, for all other cases it is below 0.3.
Table 2 inants of fal over ti s a to Poverty, ee a o
. DetermStatus (falling in Variables
ling into pwith never bTraditional
inants
ty: Relan belowt‐values
ve risk ratiopoverty lineWith changes
es of crops
(DV: Chs a base t‐values
nge in Povertyutcome)) With changes in
tive prices r crops
determ in pricmajor
the relaoof maj
t‐values
Family size 0.874 (‐1.58) 0.866 (‐1.66) 0.557* (‐2.46) Age of household head 1.006 (0.98) 1.005 (0.82) 0.997 (‐0.20) Female headed 1.123 (0.48) 1.105 (0.41) 3.297 (1.87) Number of males 0.866 (‐0.99) 0.888 (‐0.81) 1.724 (1.53) Number of females 1.033 (0.24) 1.040 (0.29) 2.383** (2.68) Number of dependents 0.895 (‐0.89) 0.909 (‐0.76) 1.857 (1.88) Number of students under 15 0.718 (‐1.78) 0.695 (‐1.94) 0.525 (‐1.37) Value of agricultural tools 1.001 (1.61) 1.001 (1.59) 0.999 (‐0.10) Took out loan in 1993 0.971 (‐0.12) 0.989 (‐0.04) 1.600 (0.93) Took out loan in 1994 0.917 (‐0.31) 0.913 (‐0.32) 0.494 (‐0.84) Total land holding 0.673*** (‐3.38) 0.687** (‐3.17) 0.270** (‐2.61) Amount of fertilizer used 0.998 (‐0.95) 0.998 (‐0.90) Value of livestock owned 1.000* (‐2.44) 1.000* (‐2.20) 1.000 (‐0.49) Seasonality in 1994 1.167 (1.24) 0.861 (‐1.23) 1.079 (0.42) Seasonality in 1997 0.878 (‐1.11) 0.910 (‐0.79) 1.099 (0.72) Change in price of Teff 1.055 (0.13) Change in price of Barely 1.224 (0.51) Change in price of Maize 0.814 (‐0.47) Change in price of Wheat 1.624 (1.37) Change in price of Coffee 0.995 (‐0.09) Change in price of Chat 1.149* (2.21) Change in rel. price of Teff 0.00000496* (‐2.37) Change in rel. price of Barely 0.00567 (‐1.70) Change in rel. price of Maize 0.00796 (‐0.55) Change in rel. price of Wheat 0.0146 (‐0.91) Change in rel. price of Coffee 2.581* (2.19) Change in rel. price of Chat 78.29 (1.34) Observations 1415 1415 383 R2_p 0.273 0.280 0.468 chi2 933.6 956.5 389.3
p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001
How did farm households escape poverty?
Equally relevant policy question is to know what household characteristics and what other factors help farmers to escape poverty in 1997 and to remain above poverty line during both periods. As evidenced from the results for falling into poverty, family composition did not play significant role to influence the poverty status transitions, unlike its impact in keeping poor to remain poor. Size of farm land owned and value of livestock owned, as expected, increased the chances of escaping poverty among farm households. Even for these resources, once relative prices of major crops added to the right hand side of the stimation equation, their significant impacts diminished and instead number of students, eand loan taken out in 1993 became significant. Table 3 inants of Esc erty ve DV ge
g Poverty, wi tly s a m. Determ
Status (escapin Variables
aping povth persistenTraditional determinants
: Relati poor at‐values
risk ratios ( base outcoWith changes in prices of
crops
: Chane)) t‐values
in Poverty
With changes in the relative
of crops
major prices major
t‐values
Family size 1.155 (1.65) 1.154 (1.63) 1.305 (1.43) Age of household head 0.998 (‐0.24) 0.999 (‐0.09) 1.007 (0.30) Female headed 0.835 (‐0.61) 0.799 (‐0.74) 0.576 (‐0.75) Number of males 1.022 (0.16) 1.002 (0.02) 0.722 (‐1.08) Number of females 0.989 (‐0.08) 0.996 (‐0.03) 0.784 (‐0.89) Number of dependents 1.004 (0.03) 1.005 (0.04) 0.553 (‐1.94) Number of students under 15 1.145 (0.72) 1.134 (0.67) 4.779* (2.35) Value of agricultural tools 0.994* (‐2.17) 0.994* (‐2.21) 0.984 (‐1.48) Took out loan in 1993 1.399 (1.04) 1.370 (0.97) 4.597* (2.23) Took out loan in 1994 1.074 (0.23) 1.049 (0.15) 3.027 (1.41) Total land holding 1.497** (3.10) 1.462** (2.87) 0.529 (‐1.35) Amount of fertilizer used 0.996 (‐1.79) 0.996 (‐1.84) value of livestock owned 1.000* (2.28) 1.000* (2.18) 1.001 (1.73) Seasonality in 1994 0.763* (‐2.19) 6.154*** (18.04) 1.757 (0.00) Seasonality in 1997 9.442*** (11.22) 7.583*** (20.14) 0.125 (‐0.00) Change in price of Teff 0.528 (‐1.20) Change in price of Barely 1.127 (0.19) Change in price of Maize 0.679 (‐0.91) Change in price of Wheat 0.827 (‐0.44) Change in price of Coffee 0.991 (‐0.13) Change in price of Chat 0.852 (‐1.51) Change in rel. price of Teff 1.050 (0.29) Change in rel. price of Barely 2.434 (1.57) Change in rel. price of Maize 0.400 (‐0.90) Change in rel. price of Wheat 6.643* (2.30) Change in rel. price of Coffee 0.989 (‐0.20) Change in rel. price of Chat 1.268 (0.49) Observations 1415 1415 383 R2_p 0.273 0.280 0.468 chi2 933.6 956.5 389.3
p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001
Out of the market reform variables, only change in the relative price of wheat increased farm households’ chance to escape poverty (Table 3). The evidence is that households who
had access to credit and schooling managed to escape poverty. Families changed their poverty status not due to change in prices of traditionally exported goods, like chat and coffee, but from the increase in prices of wheat, which is another major food crop in the country after Teff. One unexpected result is the impact of the value of agricultural tools, which decreased the probability of escaping poverty.
This cohort is of particular interest for policy makers since they demonstrated that it is possible to escape poverty even in the rural settings. These determines that helped farmers to escape poverty hold the key to the success of any policy reform that government expects to have any effect on farmers. What policy makers can take away from this result is, in addition to the role of resource endowment, the role of access to credit, education, and farmers’ production response to wheat price change should be given due focus.
It seems that there is a piece of puzzle in the results presented above. Although one expects to see positive impact of changes in the prices of cash crops, often traded in the world market, to change the poverty status of farm households for good, the evidence shows the opposite. In fact it is the change in the prices of other food crops, Teff and Wheat that had improved the poverty status of farm households in Ethiopia. As I have alluded to above, one explanation is that farmers are not receiving the prices that they deserve from the sale of cash crops due to poor infrastructure and communication networks in the country for the farmers to know the right market prices of these crops at the right time. By switching to the production of these cash crops farmers sacrificed production of food crops, which they need to purchase from the market to feed their families. If they are not receiving enough money from the sale of cash crops, they may face difficulty to purchase enough food for their families and hence result in less consumption that keeps them in the same poverty status as before or fall in to poverty as a result.
V. Conclusions
The impacts and implications of trade liberalization on farm households in Africa come through effects on prices of inputs, outputs, incomes from wages as well as profits, government revenues, and vulnerability of households’ livelihood, among others. The extent of these impacts depends on the degree of rural farmers’ integration into the world market. For the case of Ethiopia, the two main channels through which trade liberalization affects farm households are through effects on prices of outputs as well as cost of agricultural input. This paper, after presenting review of previous works, conducted empirical analysis of the impacts of trade liberalization on rural farm households in thiopia. The study used panel household data collected from 1500 representative Ehouseholds in 1994 and 1997. The study first identified consumption poverty lines for each year and for each survey site mostly based on Dercon(2002)’s work. After the poverty lines are identified, households were groups into four based on their poverty status between 1994 and 1997: remained poor (persistently poor), moved out of (escaped) poverty, moved into poverty and remained non‐poor. Using ‘remained non‐poor’ category as a base outcome, I generated relative risk ratio coefficients for each determinant for those households who remained
poor and those who moved into poverty. For those who escaped poverty, I used persistently poor as base outcome to calculate the relative risk ratio. In addition to the usual socioeconomic characteristics of households (i.e. demographic composition), this study identified key trade reform variables that influence poverty status: changes in the prices of inputs and outputs during the survey years. The results of the study show that, although resource endowment had positive and significant impact on poverty status, trade liberalization had mixed results on poverty status. Type of crops produced holds the key to the direction of the impact of trade liberalization. As a result of trade liberalization, contrary to expectation, changes in the prices of cash crops (i.e. chat and coffee) increased the probability of remaining poor and falling into poverty. On the other hand, changes in the relative price staple food crops (i.e. Teff and Wheat) increased he probability of escaping poverty and remaining above poverty line. Seasonality also tcontributed for the change in the probability of being in a given poverty status. The implication of these results is not to recommend to households abandon cash crops and to switch to food crops as trade textbooks suggest. Rather draws us back to the drawing board to look at what potential and actual difficulties encounter farmers not to benefit from liberalization. Hence policy makers need to look into the situation of farm households and the market in each village. It would be too simplistic if one assumes the erfect functioning of markets in such rural setting and to expect all the benefits from trade pand world prices as suggested in trade theories. The results should be interpreted to mean that farmers are not getting the right price for the cash crops they are producing. Hence instead of urging farmers to switch to food crop production, the Ethiopian government should make sure that farmer get timely information about prices and can access markets closer to their villages to cut cost of transaction. One encouraging effort in this direction by the government is the opening of the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) services where farmers supposed to get access to daily price changes at their service centers in their district. It is too early to assess the success of ECX yet, but if the service can bee expanded to parts of the country where infrastructure and communication facilities are currently limited, it may fill not only the information gap but also storage facilities to give farmers adequate bargaining information and time to benefit from liberalization.
Future research should look into the role of infrastructure as regional and village fixed factors seem to also influence as to whether a community can benefit from changes in prices and in turn as to how integrated villages are to the nearest market and information network. It is also important to investigate group of households by the kind of crops they produce, cash crops or otherwise, to identify what would happen to those households who rely on different cropping pattern either due to ecology or choice.
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Appendix
Variable otherwise. definition for both years (1994 and 1997) unless indicated
EducAge:
ation: Number of students in the family who were below 15 years of age Age of household head in 1997
Male: Number of males in the household who were older than 15 years of age Female: Number of females in the household who were older than 15 years of age Female headed: dummy variaotherwis
ble which takes values 1 for female headed households and 0
Famil cale used for India e.
tructed using WHO sLivest
y size in adult equivalent: Adult equivalent was consock: Tot
Landal value of livestock owned and reported by households
Fertil: Total land area cultivated by households izer
Tools: Val Cost: Cost of fertilizer incurred by farmers as reported by farmers
0) ue of major agricultural tools (hoes and plough) owned by a household
94 (meher = 1, belg = (meher =1 belg =0)
Season94: Dummy for the period of time data was collected in 19Season9Loan93
7: Dummy for the period time data was collected in 1997
Loan94:: 1 if a household borrowed money in 1993, 0 otherwise
Soldb941 if a household borrowed money in 1994, 0 otherwise
Soldm94: 1 if sold part of output during the belg season of 1994
Soldb97:: 1 if sold part of output during the meher season of 1994 1
Soldm9 if sold part of output during the belg season of 1997
Offfar7: 1 if sold part of output during the meher season of 1997
P coffm: change in off‐farm employment between 1994 and 1997
cted from the nearby market (often a district market) P chat eaf mainly exported to the Middle East and some part of Europe)
ee: Price of coffee colle: p
P Teff: Price of chat (stimulant l
P Whearice of Teff
P Barley
t: Price of wheat :
P Maize Price of Barley
RP coff of coffee divided by cost of fertilizer for each district) : Price of Maize
eRP cha
ee: Relative price of coffee (Prict: R
RP Teff: Relative price of chat
RP Wheaelative price of Teff
RP Barley
t: Relative price of wheat :
RP Maize Relative price of Barley
Sold coff : Relative price of Maize
Sold cha
ee: Value of coffee sold t: V
Sold Teff: Value of chat sold
Sold Wheaalue of teff sold
old Barley
t: Value of wheat sold : Value of barley sold
old Maize: Value of maize sold SS
Table A g tie survey.1: Timinurvey site
of activiocation
s and of theain Harvest
s y Round f I
Source: Bevan and Pankhurst (1996).
Region S L M
Surve : Time o nterview
1989 Roun1994
d 1 Round 2
1994‐95
Round 1995
3 Roun1997
d 4
1 Haresaw Tigray October‐November June‐July
January March June
1 Geblen Tigray October‐November June‐July
January March June
3 Dinki N. Shoa December March April
March‐April
November January October, November
3 Debre Berhan
N.Shoa November‐December MAarch‐pril
March‐April
October March June ‐ August
3 Yetmen Gojjam November‐December March‐April
October March September, October
3 Shumsha S.Wollo October‐December June‐July
December‐January
May October, November
4 Sirbana Godeti
Shoa November‐December March‐April
November March June, July
4 Adele Keke Hararghe November‐December November‐December
May‐June
October April October, November
4 Koro‐a degag
Arssi October‐November NDovember‐ecember
May‐June
November‐December
May‐ June June, July
4 Turfe ane Kechem
S.Shoa December March‐April
September‐October
March‐ April
September, October
7 Imdibir Shoa ge) (Gura
October‐December March‐April
October March June, July
7 Aze Deboa Shoa ta) (Kemba
October‐November March‐April
September‐October
March September, October
8 Addado Sidamo (Dilla)
December‐January March‐April
January March June, July
9 Gara Godo Sidamo (Wolayta)
August‐December March MarchMay
‐ October March June, July
9 Doma Gama Gofa September‐December
May‐June April‐May
December‐January
May‐June November
Table A.2 in Poverty H nt Ind y R (Percent) : Trends Location
ead Cou1995/96
ices (Po) b199
ural and Urban Areas% Change Over 1995/96 9/2000
Rural 47.0 45.0 ‐4.2 Urban 33.3 37.0 11.1 Total 45.5 44.2 ‐2.9
Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED) of Ethiopia, 2002a
stimates of Poverty Lines in Ethiopi Table A.3. E a from various sources
y Line (per year per adult)
Author (s) Povertrin Bir
Year
WMU (2002) 1073 1995 Dercon (2002) 480 1994 Dercon, Hoddinott and Woldehanna(2005) 600 1994 World Bank (2002) 1800 ($1 per day per person) 1990s B bebe and Bereket (2005iegston, A ) 726 1995 Dercon and Krishnan (1998) 528 1994 Source: Various sources
erty Status Change between 9 Table A.4. Pov 1994 and 19
1997 7
Source: Author’s computation
ote: * refer to percentages out of the total households (1477). N
Poor in Non‐poor in 1997 Total Poor in 1994 Cases 488 297 785 Column % 62.4% 42.7% 53.1% Row % 62.1% 37.9% 100% Total % 33%* 20.1%* 53.1% Non‐poor in 1994 Cases 294 398 692 Column % 37.6% 57.3% 47% Row % 42.5% 57.5% 100% Total % 20%* 27%* 47% Total Cases 782 695 1477 Row % 52.9% 47.1% 100%
Table A.5. Mean values io y p tatus 994 of regress Variable
n variables bPOOR – POOR (Remained Poor)
overty sN
between 1R –
and 1997POOR‐NOPOOR
d )
(EscapeyPovert
NON POOPOOR
o )
(Fall intyPovert
NONPOOR –NONPOOR
ed r)
(RemainooNon P
Total
Age of household head 46.28 49.57 44.29 45.88 46.37 Female headed 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.19 0.22 Number of male adults 1.57 1.80 1.24 1.58 1.57 Number of female adults 1.82 1.92 1.44 1.59 1.66 Number of dependents 1.76 2.22 1.10 1.71 1.72 Number of Students below 15 years 0.24 0.37 0.17 0.38 0.33 Value of Agricultural tools 31.40 28.52 40.95 40.37 37.07 Total land owned 1.00 2.91 0.85 2.25 1.99 Total value of livestock owned 464.87 885.80 537.41 1267.36 975.82 Proportion sold part of their outpin meher in 1994
ut 0.44 0.37 0.49 0.48 0.46
Proportion sold part of output in belg in 1994
0.15 0.23 0.26 0.20 0.21
Proportion sold part of their outpin meher in 1997
ut 0.69 0.57 0.62 0.63 0.63
Proportion sold part of outpbelg in 1997
ut in 0.28 0.22 0.26 0.19 0.22
Change in off‐farm income 13.52 ‐0.97 ‐31.01 ‐70.77 ‐40.38 Change in cost of fertilizer 91.59 78.24 75.02 78.82 79.82 Change in value of Teff 136.02 165.81 73.71 63.30 93.64 Change in value of barely 122.26 45.28 62.71 23.82 46.96 Change in value of maize 117.47 120.67 17.72 35.85 59.63 Change in value of wheat 54.33 76.64 108.89 42.23 60.65 Change in value of coffee 90.93 26.67 148.69 64.85 74.31 Change in value of chat 226.25 81.75 1279.47 2347.38 1477.67
Figure 1. Location of Survey Sites in Ethiopia
Source: Bevan and Pankhurst (1996)