Systems Thinking33

8/11/2019 Systems Thinking33

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Systems Thinking and Senior LevelLeadership

An Introductory Essay

George E. Reed U.S. Army War College

FOR EVERY COMPLEX problem there is a solution that is simple, neat and wrong !his

ma"im has been attributed at #arious times to Mar$ !wain, %L Man&$en and Peter 'ru&$er as awa$e(up &all to managers who mista$enl) thin$ that ma$ing a &hange in *ust one part o+ a

&omple" problem will &ure the ails o+ an entire s)stem E#er)da) management thin$ing too

o+ten loo$s +or straight+orward &ause and e++e&t relationships in problem sol#ing that ignores thee++e&t on, and +eedba&$ +rom, the entire s)stem

he -. /rm) 0ar College ma$es the

&ase that senior leadership o+ten ta$es pla&e in an en#ironment that is

#olatile, un&ertain, &omple" and ambiguous

Problems in this arena are rarel) simple and&lear &ut 1+ the) were, the) would li$el)

ha#e alread) been sol#ed b) someone else

1+ not well &onsidered 2and sometimes e#enwhen the) are3, toda)4s solutions be&ome

tomorrow4s problems 1nherent in the&on&ept o+ strategi& leadership is the notion

that this en#ironment re5uires di++erent wa)so+ thin$ing and problem sol#ing !his

arti&le introdu&es some &on&epts o+ s)stems

thin$ing and suggests that it is a +ramewor$that should be understood and applied b)

strategi& leaders

1t is insu++i&ient and o+ten &ounter(produ&ti#e +or strategi& leaders to merel) be

good &ogs in the ma&hine .trategi& leaders

must also be able to dis&ern when a#enerated s)stem or pro&ess has outli#ed its

use+ulness or when it is operating as

designed, but against the o#erall purpose +or

whi&h the organi6ation was established.o&iologist Robert 7 Merton &oined the

term 8goal displa&ement9 to des&ribe this

phenomenon :oal displa&ement o&&urs

when &omplian&e with bureau&rati&

pro&esses be&omes the ob*e&ti#e instead o++o&using on organi6ational goals

!he rational militar) de&ision ma$ing

pro&ess that ser#es so well at the ta&ti&alle#el is inade5uate +or dealing with politi&al

issues that are part and par&el o+ senior le#el

leadership /s Field Manual ;;( *ust to name a +ew9; 0e need

senior leaders who &an see both the partsand the big pi&ture= to this end some o+ the

&on&epts o+ s)stems thin$ing are use+ul

!he 'epartment o+ 'e+ense is a large and&omple" so&ial s)stem with man)

interrelated parts /s &hanges are made to

one part o+ the s)stem, man) other parts area++e&ted in a &as&ading and o+ten

unpredi&table manner !hus, organi6ational

de&isions are +raught with se&ond and third

order e++e&ts that result in unintended&onse5uen&es Fire and +orget approa&hes

are rarel) su++i&ient and are sometimes

downright harm+ul ?etter predi&tion is not

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the answer nor is it possible !here are so

man) intera&tions in &omple" s)stems that

no indi#idual &an be e"pe&ted to +ore&ast theimpa&t o+ e#en small &hanges that are

ampli+ied o#er time

1n her boo$ titled Organization Theory:Modern, Symbolic, and o!tmodern

er!"ecti#e!, Mar) @o %at&h pro#ides an

introdu&tion to general s)stems theor) that isuse+ul in thin$ing about organi6ations .he

ma$es a point worth) o+ repeatingA !he use

o+ lower le#el models is problemati& when

applied to higher le#el s)stems !hus, thelanguage o+ simple ma&hines &reates blind

spots when used as a metaphor +or human or

so&ial s)stems= human s)stems are in+initel)

more &omple" and d)nami& 1n other words,it &an be &ounterprodu&ti#e to treat a

&omple" d)nami& so&ial s)stem li$e asimple ma&hine

Boted management s&holar Russell /&$o++

puts it another wa) %e asserts that we arein the pro&ess o+ lea#ing the ma&hine age

that had roots in the Renaissan&e and &ame

into +a#or through the industriali6ation o+

so&iet) 1n that era the ma&hine metaphorbe&ame the predominant wa) o+ loo$ing at

organi6ations !he uni#erse was en#isioned

b) thin$ers, su&h as 1saa& Bewton, as ha#ingthe &hara&teristi&s o+ a big &lo&$ !he

wor$ings o+ the &lo&$ &ould be understood

through the pro&ess o+ anal)sis and theanal)ti&al method

/nal)sis in#ol#es ta$ing apart something

o+ interest, tr)ing to understand the beha#ior

o+ its parts, and then assembling theunderstanding o+ the parts into an

understanding o+ the whole 8One simple

relationship(( ca$!e and e%%ectwas su++i&ientto e"plain all relationshipsD Mu&h ma&hine

age thin$ing remains with us toda), but there

are alternati#es /&$o++ belie#es that we are entering the

s)stems age as we see$ answers to &omple"

problems not answered b) the ma&hine age

approa&h ?) the


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the arm)its soldiers, teams, et& Finall),

he would aggregate these into a de+inition o+

team, s5uad, and e#entuall) &on&lude with ade+inition o+ an arm)

/ s)stems thin$er &on+ronted with the

same tas$ would begin b) identi+)ing as)stem &ontaining the arm)= +or e"ample,

the de+ense establishment !hen su&h a

thin$er would de+ine the ob*e&ti#es and+un&tions o+ the de+ense establishment, and

do so with respe&t to the still larger so&ial

s)stem that &ontains it Finall), he or she

would e"plain or de+ine the /rm) in termso+ its roles and +un&tions in the de+ense

establishmenti

/s an e"ample o+ how a s)stems thin$ing

approa&h &an be applied to a &ontemporar)de+ense issue, &onsider the 1nstitute +or

'e+ense /nal)ses report entitled8!rans+orming 'o' ManagementA the

.)stems /pproa&h9 /n e"tra&t o+ that

report is in&luded in the re5uired readings+or this lessonG !he authors o+ this stud)

suggest an alternati#e approa&h to ser#i&e

based readiness reporting= one that &onsiders

the entire 'e+ense transportation s)stem /sa topi& o+ dis&ussion in seminar )ou might

&onsider this report and its

re&ommendations 1n it )ou &an &learl) seethe approa&h re&ommended b) /&$o++

Few would disagree, in prin&iple, that

senior leaders must see not onl) the parts,but also the big pi&ture .o wh) don4t we do

more o+ itH One reason is be&ause we are so

darned bus)

!he problem o+ 8bus)(ness9 &an be

&ompounded b) senior leaders who areo#ers&heduled and unedu&ated in s)stems

thin$ing 0e might also as$ whether speedin de&ision ma$ing and de&isi#eness, so#alued at the ta&ti&al le#el, wor$s to the

detriment o+ good de&isions at the strategi&

i/&$o++ uses the e"ample o+ uni#ersit) in the samewa) that 1 used /rm) !he e"ample used in this

paragraph is modi+ied +rom the wor$ &ontained in

pages I(J o+Ac&o%%'! (e!t.

le#el Consider the e"ample o+ :eneral

:eorge C Marshall during 0orld 0ar 11

E#en at the height o+ the war :eneralMarshall t)pi&all) rode a horse in the

morning +or e"er&ise, &ame home +or lun&h

where he #isited with his wi+e, went to bedearl) and regularl) too$ retreats to

re*u#enate !o what e"tent are su&h pauses

+or re+le&tion and renewal #alued toda)H.imple &ause and e++e&t thin$ing &ombined

with a &ulture o+ bus)(ness &an result in

de&ision(ma$ers who rapid +ire short term

solutions /bsent some dis&ipline andte&hni5ues to do otherwise, it is #er) hard to

+ind time to re+le&t su++i&ientl) on su&h

things

Peter .enge submits that s)stems thin$ingis *ust the t)pe o+ dis&ipline and tool set

needed to en&ourage the seeing o+

8interrelationships rather than things, +orseeing patterns o+ &hange rather than stati&

Ksnapshots9I .enge argues that this shi+t o+

mind is ne&essar) to deal with the&omple"ities o+ &omple" d)nami& s)stems

Most people expect learning just to happen

without taking the time for thought andreflection, which true learning requires. In

the past, with slower communication

systems, we often had a few weeks to

ponder and rethink a decision. Today we're

accustomed to e-mails, faxes, oernight

letters, and cell phones, and hae come to

!eliee that an immediate response is more

important than a thoughtful one."

.enge suggests that we thin$ in terms o++eedba&$ loops as a substitute +or simple

&ause and e++e&t relationships 1magine a

+armer who determines that an inse&tin+estation is eating his &rop !he

&on#entional approa&h is to appl) a pesti&ide


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designed to $ill the inse&tii /s additional

inse&ts appear, the +armer applies more o+

the pesti&ide !he +armer4s goal is toprodu&e a &rop, but his a&ti#it) is

in&reasingl) &onsumed b) re&urring

appli&ations o+ the &hemi&al %e is surel)bus), but he ma) not ne&essaril) be

produ&ti#e / s)stems thin$er might step

ba&$ +rom the problem, ta$e a broader #iew,and &onsider what is happening o#er time

For e"ample, she might thin$ about

whether there are an) patterns that appear

o#er wee$s or months, attempt to depi&twhat is a&tuall) happening, and identi+) root

&auses or le#erage points suggested b) these

obser#ations !he s)stems thin$er might

noti&e that inse&t in+estation does indeedde&rease a+ter appl)ing pesti&ide, but onl)

+or a short time 1nse&ts that were eating the&rop were a&tuall) &ontrolling another

spe&ies o+ inse&t Elimination o+ the +irst

spe&ies resulted in a growth e"plosion in these&ond and &aused e#en more damage than

the +irst !he solution &aused an unintended

&onse5uen&e that worsened the situation

/n a&&omplished s)stems thin$er wouldmodel the abo#e e"ample using a series o+

+eedba&$ and rein+or&ing loops as dis&ussed

in the .enge reading +or this lesson !hespe&i+i&s o+ the abo#e modeling is less

important at this point than the obser#ation

that s)stems thin$ing tends to see things interms o+ loops and &onstant assessment o+

what i!happening rather than +low &harts

and relian&e on what!ho$ldbe happening

!his &ontinuous assessment pro&ess isessential in a #olatile en#ironment that is

&hanging rapidl) 1t ta$es time and good

habits o+ &riti&al re+le&tion to engage in this$ind o+ learning 1t is the +er#ent hope o+ the

+a&ult) that )ou will begin to de#elop good

habits o+ re+le&tion during )our )ear at the

ii!his e"ample is adapted +rom /ronson, 'aniel /n1ntrodu&tion to .)stems !hin$ing a#ailable atA

httpAwwwthin$ingnet.)stems!hin$ingO#er#iew

.!arti&lepd+, G, a&&essed D Februar) ;


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'is&ussion NuestionsA

%ow does s)stems thin$ing di++er +rom other +orms o+ problem sol#ing )ou ha#e used in thepastH

; 0hat are the predi&table &onse5uen&es o+ appl)ing a &ontrol oriented approa&h appropriate toa simple ma&hine s)stem to a &omple" d)nami& so&ial s)stemH

1n what wa)s does the 1nstitute +or 'e+ense /nal)ses re&ommendations +or 'e+ense readinessreporting implement the +ramewor$ o+ s)stems thin$ingH

D Considering the Final Report o+ the 1ndependent Panel to Re#iew 'o' 'etention Operations,

what s)stemi& +a&tors &an )ou identi+) that &ontributed to the in&idents o+ abuse o+ detainees in-. &ustod) and what would )ou re&ommend to pre#ent their re&urren&eH

Re+eren&es


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em$e, Ron 8.)stems !hin$ing9 Training.Vol J, no ;, 2Februar) ;

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Systems Thinking33