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Faculty Training Institute - An EOH Group Company
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving for a Complex World
Steve Erlank CEO: Faculty Training Institute
Past President: SA Chapter of the IIBA®
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Systems Thinking: the journey
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world
Cybernetics
General Systems Theory
Systems
Thinking
Complexity
Maturana, Norbert Wiener, John von Neumann,
Claude Shannons, Warren McCulloch, Ross Ashby
Ludwig von Bertalanffy
Peter Senge; Michael
Jackson; Checkland
Roger Lewin, Stuart Kaufmann,
Chris Langton, Murray Geller
Leadership
Organisational
Performance Organisational
Learning Change
Management
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This presentation
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 3
Multifinality
Autopoesis
Concepts
Techniques
Behaviours
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My goal
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 4
Systems thinking is an
approach and a discipline that
offers a powerful new perspective,
a specialized language,
and a set of tools that you can use to address the
most stubborn problems in
everyday life and work.
Wow! I want more…..
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So what is a System
Slide 5
A system is a group of interacting, interrelated, interdependent and heterogeneous components that form a complex and unified whole.
The system maintains its existence and functions as a whole through the interaction of its parts
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world
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Basic vocabulary of systems
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 6
Interfaces
Purpose
Interrelated,
interdependent components
(Subsystems)
Outputs
Constraints Feedback
Boundary
Environment
Inputs
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Requirements for System to exist
All the system’s parts must be present for it to function effectively
The specific arrangement of its component parts is critical to its purpose
Its purpose gives it context in its environment
Provides and receives feedback
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 7
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Slide 8 Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world
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Systems Thinking
Slide 9 Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world
Systems thinking is the discipline and practice
of seeing wholes,
recognizing patterns and interrelationships,
and with the intention of
structuring those interrelationships
in more effective and efficient ways
to solve complex problems
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Slide 10 Seeing the Wood AND the Trees
Systems Thinking requires you to change your perspective on problem solving and
thinking
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System vs Analytical Thinking
Slide 11 Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world
Analytical
Thinking
Linear process; reasoned
Goal/solution seeking
Reductionist: Understand the parts
to understand whole
Reduce scope and
complexity to manage
Short term benefits
Systems
Thinking
Non-linear ; observation
Problem oriented; pattern
seeking
Emergent: Understand the
interactions to understand
whole
Explore leverage points to
manage
Long term benefits
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Stepping back from the problem
Slide 12 Seeing the Wood AND the Trees
Events
Patterns
Systemic Structure
What?
How?
When?
Where?
Why?
Why not?
What if?
Systems Thinking says step back to see the big picture
The Iceberg
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Systems Thinking in Action
Slide 13 Seeing the Wood AND the Trees
Problem: Customers complaining
about slow elevators in a
busy building
What other solutions exist?
Are they systems-thinking oriented or traditional thinking oriented:
Traditional Solution:
• Install faster elevators
• Install more elevators
Systems Thinking
• ???
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Key perspective shifts
Thinking in parts/silos Thinking in (causal) relationships
Thinking sequentially Thinking in (closed) loops
Thinking in the Now Thinking over time
Symptom-as-enemy Symptom-as-guide
Outsider-looking-in Insider-looking-in
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Classic Systems Thinking techniques
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 15
Causal Loop diagrams
Source: Wikipedia & Pegasuscom.com
System Archetypes Behaviour-over-time graphs
Accumulators and Flow Models
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Behavior over time graphs
A BOT graph depicts patterns of behavior that you want to explore over time
Seeing the Wood AND the Trees
Slide 16
2001 2005 2010
No of projects
No of developers
% of projects using
Agile
Project delivery
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Causal loop diagrams
Causal loop diagrams explore the relationships between multiple factors in a complex problem, over time
Slide 17
© 2004 Faculty Training Institute
Anxiety at work Number of
mistakes made
S
S
R
Reinforcing loop: Changes are amplified
• It keeps getting worse
• Things are out of control
• A vicious circle/spiral
• Self-fulfilling prophecy
• Cycle of defeat
• Exponential growth
Stress level
Relaxation
exercises
O
S
B
Balancing loop: Changes are damped
• The pendulum swings
• He’s on autopilot
• We’ve seen this before
• They level each other out
• What goes up must come down
• It’s boom and bust
??
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Multi-loop models
Most CLD’s contain multiple loops, which enable very complex problems to be understood, and interventions plotted
Seeing the Wood AND the Trees Slide 18
Number of
errors
Amount
of
Rework
S
S Work
stress
Time
pressures
Absenteeism
Tight
deadlines
# of Shortcuts
taken
S
Resources
available
S
S
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System Archetypes
A class of patterns that capture the "common stories” in systems thinking
Tools for diagnosing problems and identifying high leverage interventions that creates fundamental change Fixes that Fail / Backfire
Shifting the Burden / Addiction
Drifting Goals
Escalation
Growth and Underinvestment
Limits to Success
Success to the Successful
Tragedy of the Commons
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 19
Problem Fix
O
S
B
Unintended
consequence S
S
Delay
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Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 20
ABC Financial Services Successful
Growing
Dynamic
Vibrant
Quick to implement
solutions to
problems…
But they don’t use
systems thinking a
whole lot
Once upon a time there was a little financial services company…
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Their story
Business users complain to CIO about projects not completing on time
CIO thinks: “Projects late? Hmm….” “I know: Lets implement performance incentives/penalties for PM’s for on time delivery of projects”
Project delivery improves ……..for a while…….
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 21
ABC
Financial
Services
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What Systems Thinking could have predicted
Slide 22 Seeing the Wood AND the Trees
ABC Financial
Services
Unintended consequences (fix that failed)
Limits to success
Shifting the burden
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Really big problems - Lonmin strike
Slide 23 Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world
The obvious problem:
• Wage dispute
• Strike
• Negotiated Settlement
Hidden factors:
• Union competition
• Political expediency
• Mangaung
• Wage disparity/economic
hardship/poor conditions
• Lack of transformation
• Democratic immaturity
Inexplicable escalation:
• Illegal strike
• Militancy
• Harsh response
• …..
Long term impact:
• Sympathy strikes
• Transport backlogs
• Ratings downgrade
• Loss of revenue/tax
• Retrenchments
• Economic confidence
• Polarisation
• Uncompetitive mining
sector
• Pressure for
nationalisation
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Closer to home?
Slide 24 Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world
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Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a
Complex world Slide 25
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Complex problems are complex!
Many factors that influence each other
Unpredictable, unfathomable, Nnon-measurable behaviours
Delayed reactions
Archetype patterns emerge over time
Only ‘solvable’ by application of multi-faceted basket of interventions
Strategy: shift the loops in desirable directions
Slide 26 Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world
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Shifting complex problems
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 27
Even small changes can have a big impact in complex systems
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The impact of small changes over time
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 28
Connectors, Mavens and
Salesmen
The story of
Thulani Madondo
The story of
Analyst Sue
The origins of the
IIBA
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Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a
Complex world Slide 29
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Seeing your environments as Systems
Slide 30 Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world
PEOPLE
PRODUCTS &
SERVICES
PROCESSES
BRAND
STUCTURE and
INFRASTRUCTURE
CONSUMABLE
RESOURCES
VALUES &
CULTURE
ENVIRONMENT
Employees
Customers
Partners
Money
Information
Consumables
Regulation
Legislation
Motivations
Ethics
Competition
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Slide 31 Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world
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Systems Thinkers are people who
See the big picture; look for patterns and structure, not events
Think outside the box
Change perspectives to see new leverage points in complex systems
Look for interdependencies, similarities, reusable artefacts.
Pay attention and give voice to the long-term value
Find where unanticipated consequences emerge
Problem oriented rather than solution focused
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 32
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Summary
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 33
Systems Thinking
tools
Application of System
thinking in Workplace
Systems Thinking concepts
What is a
System
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Useful places to start…..
Meadows, Donella H: Thinking in Systems: A Primer ,
Gladwell. Malcolm: Tipping Point
Senge, Peter M., The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization
The Systems Thinker, Newsletter published by Pegasus Communications, Inc
Pegasus Communications Web site <http://www.pegasuscom.com/community.html>
Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world Slide 34
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Systems Thinking: Problem Solving in a Complex world 35
Steve Erlank President – IIBA ® South Africa
CEO – Faculty Training Institute
Thank you