Systems, People and AutomationJohn Main

John Paschkewitz

June 15, 2017

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

2

• “Working with DARPA” means “working with an idiosyncratic PM”• Understand your customer (us) & how we think• We assume you’ve attended DARPA 101, 102, … depending on your past

experience with DARPA and we don’t need to discuss mechanics• We have very different ways of looking for new programs, performers, and

projects • We will coach you in how to engage with us more effectively

• Some sense of what we are interested in potentially investing in over the next year and why

What you will take away from this session

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

3

John Main

• Second time as a PM• Opportunistic• “Don’t be boring”

Programs of interest in this forum: • IMPROV• GS3

Currently looking at: • Deception• Anything that is “not boring” –

often means exploiting science and tech in radically new ways

John Paschkewitz

• Came to DARPA for a career change• Problem-focused • Easily bored

Programs of interest in this forum:• CASCADE • Agile Teams (A-Teams)

Currently looking at: • A-Teams related concepts• Re-imagining wargaming

John M. vs. John P.

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

4

• What is an interesting topic/What is a good problem?• Is it interesting to me? • What is the frontier of the research space for this topic/problem? • Where would the future be without DARPA investment? Would DARPA

investment enable something qualitatively different? • Is there something new here? • What is the demonstration or testable hypothesis related to this new thing? • Is the answer still interesting to me? • What is the impact? • Who might the performers be? • Can I answer Heilmeier?

Let’s run through some case studies with each of us (which are related to what we are currently looking for)

John and John’s checklist for ideas

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

5

John P: What is a good problem?

Today’s approaches to include human adaptability in sociotechnical systems design are heuristic-based art

Unkn

own

envi

ronm

ent

Know

nen

viro

nmen

t

Known/Fixed Roles Unknown/Fluid Roles

Nuclear power plant disaster response“Design” approach: Exhaustive empirical testing and improvisation

Automation-of-Labor DecisionsDesign approach: • “men are better at-

machines are better at” (MABA-MABA)

• Fitts lists + empirical economic analysis

Air Traffic ControlDesign approach: • Human in the loop

(HITL) simulations• Empirical metrics (e.g.

throughput, safety)

Symbiotic Office RobotsDesign approach: Scheduler with episodic non-Markovian localization

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

6

John M: What is a good opportunity?

https://www.behance.net/gallery/5946557/Mechanical-Engineering-Gecko-Cover

https://www.elektormagazine.com/news/edition-4-2016-of-the-elektor-magazine-now-available

https://twitter.com/naturematerials/status/558607476808241152

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

7

JP: Is it interesting to me? What is the frontier?

(Cummings, 2015)(Fong, 2016)

Management Science, 2003

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

8

JM: Is it interesting to me? What is the frontier?

Scientists and Engineers

Scientific and Technical Information

Ideation New S&T Ideas and Concepts

Understanding

Hypothesis

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

9

JM: Is it interesting to me? What is the frontier?

Scientists and Engineers

Scientific and Technical Information

Ideation New S&T Ideas and Concepts

Understanding

Hypothesis

More people and more information than ever means more new ideas than ever

More information than ever -Cumulative publications double every 15 years

2008-2012Science Collaborations 2005-2009

Larsen and von Ins

http://olihb.com/2014/08/11/map-of-scientific-collaboration-redux/

Science participation has changed from western to global in the last 10 years

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

10

JP: What is the future without DARPA investment?

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

11

JM: What is the future without DARPA investment?

Public and Private Funding of S&T in G20 Nations in 2013 “Global private and public R&D funding,” Scienceogram UK, May 2013 at http://scienceogram.org/blog/2013/05/science-technology-business-government-g20/ as of 16 October 2014.

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

12

JP: Is there something new here? Is it still interesting?

McComb, Cagan, Kotovsky, 2015

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

13

JM: Is there something new here? Is it still interesting?

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

14

JP: What is the demonstration or testable hypothesis related to this new thing?

Hypothesis:

By using new abstractions for team structure and problem solving, we can design teams of humans and intelligent machines to adapt faster and perform better than human-only, machine-only, or heuristically informed human-machine teams.

Still interesting? Yes.

Distribution Statement A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

15

JP: What is the demonstration or testable hypothesis related to this new thing?

Hypothesis:

The world is changing and we need to change with it.

Still interesting? Yes.

Distribution Statement A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

16

JP: What is the impact? Hybrid team design is relevant to a diverse set of collective activities

Activity Team members

Machine elements

Today Tomorrow

Develop complex software Programmers Code correction • Architecture optimizer• System resource emulator

Deliver goods to users through complex network

Logisticians Scheduling tools • Plan formulation and diagnosis aids

• UxV delivery

Discover new drugs ChemistsBiologistsPharmacologists

High throughput testing • Automated compound synthesis

Design a space probe Project leaderSubsystem

engineers

• Design tools • Modeling and simulation

tools

• Automated design• Decision and interaction

facilitator

Control and manage an air battle

PlannersPilots

• Decision aids• UAVs

• Automatic Plan formulation• UAV swarm

Conduct infantry operations in a megacity

Squad leaderRiflemen

Communications (radios, phones)

• UAV/UGV• Autonomous EW operations

Machine intelligence is not just an agent, but manifested in the interaction fabric between humans and machines – potentially managing the information flows and amplifying the

problem solving capability of the team

Distribution Statement A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

17

JM: What is the impact?

Help these people, somehow, someday.

By Tommy Bellegarde - http://www.1stmardiv.marines.mil/News/NewsArticleDisplay/tabid/8585/Article/88030/marines-fast-reaction-saves-life.aspx, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=18550511

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

18

• If we had complete clarity as to who this would be, we wouldn’t be sitting here….

• PM’s have lots of tools, but finite time and bandwidth:• Referrals/introductions to interesting researchers from other DARPA PM’s, and

Program Officers at other DoD agencies• Workshop – I held a workshop with ~10 people recommended to me from

academia, government (AFRL), industry in fall of 2015• Other workshops & conferences: ISAT “Centaurs that Work” meeting, November

2015• Request for Information: DARPA-SN-16-34, May 2016

JP: Who might the performers be?

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

19

• Who exactly? It is rare to know.

• I look for• Clear technical chops• Evidence that at least one person on the team, preferably the leader, knows how

to get things done

JM: Who might the performers be?

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

20

JP: Can I answer Heilmeier?

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

21

JM: Can I answer Heilmeier?

• What are you trying to do? Articulate your objectives using absolutely no jargon.

• How is it done today, and what are the limits of current practice?

• What is new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful?

• Who cares? If you succeed, what difference will it make?

• What are the risks?

• How much will it cost?

• How long will it take?

• What are the mid-term and final “exams” to check for success?

All questions are not created equal.Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

22

A-Teams:

Abstractions and formalisms for dynamic, adaptive team structureNew approaches and abstractions for team cognition and problem solvingIntegrated approaches

Re-thinking wargaming: See DARPA RFI SN-17-41

JP: What am I looking for?

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)

23

Potentially new program coming soon (hopefully)

• Focus on technologies for tactical, operational, or strategic deception

JM: What am I looking for?

Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited)