Systems Engineering Technical Vision for 2020

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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change

ManagementHistory

Society Legal Aspects

LogisticsSupply Chain

SystemsEngineering

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TechnicalInformation

MultidisciplineDesign

ProductDevelopment

Systems Engineering Technical Vision for 2020

Dr. John C. HSU, Systems Engineering TC

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Tracking the Constant of Change

SystemsEngineering

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Economics


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ProductDevelopment

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Historic errors on technology !

The Telephone has too many serious problems to become a genuine means of communication. This device has by its nature no value for us!

Western Union, 1876

Worldwide, I think there may be a market for some 5 Computers!

Thomas Watson, IBM Boss, 1943

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What is Systems Engineering?

- Operations - Cost & Schedule

- Performance - Training & Support - Test - Disposal - Manufacturing

Systems Engineering is an interdisciplinary approach and means to enable the realization of successful systems.It focuses on defining customer needs and required functionality early in the development cycle, documenting requirements, then proceeding with design synthesis and system validation while considering the complete problem:

Systems Engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production and to operation. Systems Engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs.

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INCOSE Systems Engineering INCOSE Systems Engineering Technical Vision Technical Vision

Project Objective: Converge on a shared technical vision for SE community of practice by including other SE Technical Organizations (AIAA, GEIA G-47, IEEE, NDIA, IEE & Others)

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Scope of Effort Scope of Effort

The SE Technical Vision encompasses Six Focus Areas: Systems Engineering Drivers

Systems Architecting

Systems Development

Systems Engineering Management Methods

Systems Engineering Standards

Systems Engineering Education & Research

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Systems Engineering DriversSystems Engineering Drivers

Global Engineering Business Environment

A need to address integrated multiculturalism, world peace, management of natural resources, health systems,…

Engineering efforts must consider social and ecological impacts of decisions

Growth in international cooperation of defense, information technology, communication, transportation, energy, and other sectors

The International Space Station is the largest and most complex international scientific project in history

(photo credit: NASA, with permission)

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Systems Engineering DriversSystems Engineering Drivers(continued)(continued)

Future Systems A new worldview : systems of systems

Emerging systems will be evolutionary and adaptive

Systems will become more complex in their composition, capabilities, and interfaces

Increase in “super systems”, such as Air Traffic Control Systems and Intelligent Transportation

Aggregation of systems of systems will drive the need to network new and existing systems

A need to implement continuous technology updates throughout the lifecycle

Long-range impacts and supportability will increase

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Systems Engineering Evolution Emphasis on increasingly complex technological, human, and

organizational systems

Ensure that systems "not only do things right, but do the right things"

SE trends to combine : operations research, cybernetics, simulation, decision analysis, requirements management, risk management, logistics, manufacturing, verification and validation, business, economic analysis, …

Harmonization of engineering standards, practices, and education is on the way

A trend towards differentiation into levels : system of systems (e.g., a transportation network), individual systems (e.g., an automobile), components (e.g., an engine, a gear box)

Systems Engineering DriversSystems Engineering Drivers(continued)(continued)

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Systems ArchitectingState of the Art & drivers

Evolving Scope The system no longer consists of just hardware and software, but also

includes data, facilities, personnel, organizations, materials, services, techniques, …

Some awareness of system architecture the need for a more formalized architecture modeling approach – example:

DoDAF (DoD Architecture Framework)

Connecting elements of many different systems to achieve greater synergies and functionality Breaking into small components, solving each, then integrating pieces

back into a whole solution is no longer sufficient. There is a need for more and better “synthesis” techniques that can produce more robust and balanced system solutions.

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Systems analysis emphasis System Architecture is both an art (how to combine

elements to create a solution) and a science (the solution must match the physical laws and a level of efficiency).

Increasing body of knowledge (e.g., frameworks) A need to better-understood architectural principles and

practices

Unclear relationship between SA & SE Due to the lack of common concepts and terminology SE &

SA result in semantic confusion.

SESA

SESA

SESA

Systems ArchitectingState of the Art & drivers

(continued)

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Systems Development Emerging Drivers

SysML will provide ability to create & execute models of systems and partition SW & HW

System Architecture Frameworks provide system views based on underlying unified product/system information model

Semantic models based on XML enable exchange of data between organizations domains

Semantic web & ontologies are leading to richer, distributed information models

Product data management environments for capturing data

Distributed simulation environments enable virtual analysis over geo-distributed teams & across lifecycle

COSYSMO under development as basis for estimating system engineering costs

Collaboration technologies developed to support virtual teams

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Systems Engineering Management Methods

State of the Art & driversModeling and simulation tools are looked at as the

mechanism for accelerating development programs

The use of tools increases, the risk of becoming tool dependent grows

Tendency to make short term decisions without regard to the long term consequences

An international “common framework, common language” is evolving

A new term appears = co-opetition (cooperative competition)

Programs continue to place more emphasis on lower unit costs when lower life cycle costs are more significant

The next generation of engineers will be more comfortable working with distributed databases, distributed business partners, and web-based applications

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Systems Engineering Standards Emerging Drivers

Processes models(Activities & outcomes)

632, 1220, 15288, …

Semantic models(Entities/Relationships)AP233, SysML profiles …

Semiotic models(symbols, diagrams)

FFBD, StateCharts, UML 2.0 …

Must work

together

Today these 3 types of modeling studies are separate initiatives

Harmonization & reconciliation -

concurrent initiatives

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SE Education and ResearchSE Education and ResearchState of the ArtState of the Art

Increasing demands for SE education and training

Undergraduate engineering programs evolving to more systems-centered disciplinary programs

More complex university capstone projects

Growing international competition in education and training

Research into systems engineering topics increasing, but topics not well defined

RoboCup 2003 International Robotics Competition (photo credit: Patrick Riley, with permission

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2010 Systems Engineering Technical 2010 Systems Engineering Technical Vision Vision

• The US DoD is focusing on network-centric, interoperable warfare and effects integrated over all Commands, Services, and Agencies.

• “Systems of systems” and “Architecture-first” viewpoints will lead to a “federated” guidance.

• Directly executable models will be realized as operational systems in the arena of systems development.

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2010 Systems Engineering Technical 2010 Systems Engineering Technical Vision Vision (continued)(continued)

• Systems engineering practices are applied routinely to organizations as well as products.

• A Body of Knowledge will exist that truly transcends systems engineering applications domains.

• Alignment of systems engineering standards with ISO/IEC 15288 will be achieved.

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2010 Systems Engineering Technical 2010 Systems Engineering Technical Vision Vision (continued)(continued)

• Systems engineering certification will become a required part of the career path of many organizations.

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• The development of distributed semantic models for specific technical domains will lead to semantic models for organizations and elements of society.

• “Soft” or “intelligent systems” will add significant effort to up front systems engineering with the benefit of enabling planned change at an industry or society level.

2020 Systems Engineering Technical 2020 Systems Engineering Technical VisionVision

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• Engineering textbooks will have been re-written, tools based on this theory will have been validated against both theory and empirical evidence.

• Management process models and simulations will provide real time planning by taking into account risk outcomes, changing political, financial, technical and personnel factors, etc.

2020 Systems Engineering Technical 2020 Systems Engineering Technical VisionVision (continued) (continued)

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• A high level systems engineering standard is envisioned that will provide a means to achieve systems engineering integration across applicable commercial, government and educational domains.

• The high-level systems engineering standard envisioned for the future should be open and extendable.


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• Systems engineering will become an established international “inter-disciplinary connector” or a “meta-discipline.”


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Systems Engineering Technical Vision for 2020