Systems Engineering and Analysis

Fifth Edition

Benjamin S. Blanchard

Professor Emeritus of Engineering and Industrial and Systems Engineering

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Wolter J. Fabrycky

Lawrence Professor Emeritus of Industrial and Systems Engineering Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and

Chairman, Academic Applications International

Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montreal Toronto

Delhi Mexico City Sao Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo

Contents

Preface

Part I Introduction to Systems

Chapter 1 Systems Science and Engineering 1.1 System Definitions and Elements 1.2 A Classification of Systems 1.3 Science and Systems Science 1.4 Technology and Technical Systems 1.5 Transition to the Systems Age 1.6 Systems Engineering 1.7 Summary and Extensions

Questions and Problems

Chapter 2 Bringing Systems Into Being 2.1 The Engineered System 2.2 System Life-Cycle Engineering 2.3 The Systems Engineering Process 2.4 System Design Considerations 2.5 System Synthesis, Analysis, and Evaluation 2.6 Implementing Systems Engineering 2.7 Summary and Extensions

Questions and Problems

Part II The System Design Process

Chapter 3 Conceptual System Design 3.1 Problem Definition and Need Identification 3.2 Advanced System Planning and Architecting 3.3 System Design and Feasibility Analysis 3.4 System Operational Requirements 3.5 System Maintenance and Support 3.6 Technical Performance Measures 3.7 Functional Analysis and Allocation

6 Contents

3.8 System Trade-off Analyses 107 3.9 System Specification 109

3.10 Conceptual Design Review 109 3.11 Summary and Extensions 111

Questions and Problems 112

Chapter 4 Preliminary System Design 114 4.1 Preliminary Design Requirements 115 4.2 Development, Product, Process, and Material Specifications 116 4.3 Functional Analysis and Allocation (Subsystem) 118 4.4 Preliminary Design Criteria 126 4.5 Design Engineering Activities 128 4.6 Engineering Design Tools and Technologies 131 4.7 Trade-off Studies and Design Definition 134 4.8 Design Review, Evaluation, and Feedback 137 4.9 Summary and Extensions 139

Questions and Problems 140

Chapter 5 Detail Design and Development 142 5.1 Detail Design Requirements 143 5.2 The Evolution of Detail Design 144 5.3 Integrating System Elements and Activities 148 5.4 Design Tools and Aids 150 5.5 Design Data, Information, and Integration 151 5.6 Development of Engineering Models 153 5.7 System Prototype Development 156 5.8 Design Review, Evaluation, and Feedback 156 5.9 Incorporating Design Changes 160

5.10 Summary and Extensions 161 Questions and Problems 162

Chapter 6 System Test, Evaluation, and Validation 164 6.1 The Process of System Test, Evaluation, and Validation 165 6.2 Categories of System Test and Evaluation 167 6.3 Planning for System Test and Evaluation 171 6.4 Preparation for System Test and Evaluation 174 6.5 System Test, Data Collection, Reporting, and Feedback 116 6.6 Summary and Extensions 180

Questions and Problems 181

Part III Systems Analysis and Design Evaluation 183

Chapter 7 Alternatives and Models in Decision Making 184 7.1 Alternatives in Decision Making 185 7.2 Models in Decision Making 186 7.3 Decision Evaluation Theory 190 7.4 Decisions Involving Multiple Criteria 195

Contents 7

7.5 The Decision Evaluation Display 201 7.6 Decisions Under Risk and Uncertainty 202 7.7 Summary and Extensions 211

Questions and Problems 213

Chapter 8 Models For Economic Evaluation 218 8.1 Interest and Interest Formulas 219 8.2 Determining Economic Equivalence 224 8.3 Evaluating a Single Alternative 227 8.4 Evaluating Multiple Alternatives 235 8.5 Evaluation Involving Multiple Criteria 237 8.6 Multiple Alternatives with Multiple Futures 238 8.7 Break-Even Economic Evaluations 241 8.8 Break-Even Evaluation Under Risk 246 8.9 Summary and Extensions 248

Questions and Problems 248

Chapter 9 Optimization in Design and Operations 253 9.1 Classical Optimization Theory 254 9.2 Unconstrained Classical Optimization 260 9.3 Constrained Classical Optimization 281 9.4 Optimization Involving Multiple Criteria 286 9.5 Constrained Optimization by Linear Programming 288 9.6 Summary and Extensions 297

Questions and Problems 298

Chapter 10 Queuing Theory and Analysis 303 10.1 The Queuing System 304 10.2 Monte Carlo Analysis of Queuing 307 10.3 Single-Channel Queuing Models 310 10.4 Multiple-Channel Queuing Models 319 10.5 Queuing with Nonexponential Service 322 10.6 Finite Population Queuing Models 325 10.7 Summary and Extensions 332

Questions and Problems 333

Chapter 11 Control Concepts and Methods 336 11.1 Some Basic Control Concepts 337 11.2 Statistical Process Control 339 11.3 Statistical Control Charts 341 11.4 Optimum Policy Control 351 11.5 Project Control with CPM and PERT 354 11.6 Total Quality Control 364 11.7 Summary and Extensions 367

Questions and Problems 368

8 Contents

Part IV Design for Operational Feasibility 375

Chapter 12 Design for Reliability 376 12.1 Definition and Explanation of Reliability 377 12.2 Measures of Reliability 378 12.3 Reliability in the System Life Cycle 388 12.4 Reliability Analysis Methods 399 12.5 Reliability Test and Evaluation 410 12.6 Summary and Extensions 418

Questions and Problems 418

Chapter 13 Design for Maintainability 424 13.1 Definition and Explanation of Maintainability 425 13.2 Measures of Maintainability 426 13.3 Availability and Effectiveness Measures 440 13.4 Maintainability in the System Life Cycle 443 13.5 Maintainability Analysis Methods 450 13.6 Maintainability Demonstration 471 13.7 Summary and Extensions 477

Questions and Problems 478

Chapter 14 Design For Usability (Human Factors) 482 14.1 Definition and Explanation of Human Factors 483 14.2 The Measures in Human Factors 495 14.3 Human Factors in the System Life Cycle 496 14.4 Human Factors Analysis Methods 500 14.5 Personnel and Training Requirements 506 14.6 Personnel Test and Evaluation 508 14.7 Summary and Extensions 508

Questions and Problems 509

Chapter 15 Design for Logistics and Supportability 511 15.1 Definition and Explanation of Logistics and Supportability 512 15.2 Logistics in the System-of-Systems Environment 517 15.3 The Elements of Logistics and System Support 517 15.4 The Measures of Logistics and Supportability 521 15.5 Logistics and Maintenance Support in the System Life Cycle 540 15.6 Supportability Analysis 546 15.7 Supportability Test and Evaluation 549 15.8 Summary and Extensions 551

Questions and Problems 552

Chapter 16 Design for Producibility, Disposability, and Sustainability 555 16.1 Introducing Producibility, Disposability, and Sustainability 556 16.2 Producibility, Disposability, and Sustainability in the Life Cycle 559 16.3 Measures of Producibility and Production Progress 561 16.4 Design for Producibility 566

Contents 9

16.5 Design for Disposability 570 16.6 Design for Sustainability 572 16.7 Life-Cycle Value-Cost Diagram 574 16.8 Summary and Extensions 576

Questions and Problems 578

Chapter 17 Design for Affordability (Life-cycle Costing) 580 17.1 Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing 581 17.2 Cost Considerations Over the System Life Cycle 584 17.3 A Generic Life-Cycle Costing Process 588 17.4 Life-Cycle Costing by Money Flow Modeling 605 17.5 Life-Cycle Costing by Economic Optimization 630 17.6 Applications and Benefits of Life-Cycle Costing 642 17.7 Summary and Extensions 644

Questions and Problems 645

Part V Systems Engineering Management 653

Chapter 18 Systems Engineering Planning and Organization 654 18.1 Systems Engineering Program Planning 655 18.2 Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) 657 18.3 Organization for Systems Engineering 672 18.4 Summary and Extensions 685

Questions and Problems 686

Chapter 19 Program Management, Control, and Evaluation 688 19.1 Organizational Goals and Objectives 689 19.2 Outsourcing and the Identification of Suppliers 690 19.3 Program Leadership and Direction 694 19.4 Program Evaluation and Feedback 695 19.5 Risk Management 704 19.6 Summary and Extensions 706

Questions and Problems 708

Part VI Appendices 711

Appendix A Functional Analysis 713 A.l Functional Flow Block Diagrams 713 A.2 Some Examples of Application 715

Appendix В Design and Management Checklists 723 B.l Design Review Checklist 723 B.2 Management Review Checklist 725

Appendix С Probability Theory and Analysis 729 C.l Probability Concepts and Theory 729 C.2 Probability Distribution Models 732 C.3 Monte Carlo Analysis 740

10 Contents

Appendix D Probability and Statistical Tables Table D.l Random Rectangular Variates Table D.2 Cumulative Poisson Probabilities Table D.3 Cumulative Normal Probabilities

Appendix E Interest Factor Tables Table E.l 6% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.2 7% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.3 8% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.4 9% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.5 10% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.6 12% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.7 15% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.8 20% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding

Appendix F Finite Queuing Tables Table F.l Finite Queuing Factors—Population 10 Table F.2 Finite Queuing Factors—Population 20 Table F.3 Finite Queuing Factors—Population 30

Appendix G Selected Bibliography G.l Systems, Systems Analysis, and Systems Engineering G.2 Concurrent and Simultaneous Engineering G.3 Software and Computer-Based Systems G.4 Reliability Engineering G.5 Maintainability Engineering and Maintenance G.6 Human Factors and Safety Engineering G.7 Production, Manufacturing, and Quality Assurance G.8 Logistics, Supply Chain, Supportability, and Sustainability G.9 Operations Research and Operations Management G.IO Engineering Economics and Life-Cycle Cost Analysis G.ll Management and Supporting Areas

Appendix H Selected Websites

Index