SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Using a Systems Approach in Energy Risk Assessment Dan Wilson The Midlands Energy Graduate School II Annual Conference,

SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY

Using a Systems Approach in Energy Risk Assessment

Dan Wilson

The Midlands Energy Graduate School II Annual Conference, 8th September 2011

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd 2011. All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY

Frazer-Nash Consultancy

Around 350 engineers across eight offices

Services across Technical analysis Systems engineering Safety and environmental

analysis and management Range of markets:

Defence Civil and Military Nuclear Conventional and Renewable

Energy Transport Oil and Gas

Dorking

Warrington

Bristol

Burton-on-Trent

Glasgow

Plymouth

Dorchester


Agenda

What is risk assessment?

What is a Systems Approach?

Applying a Systems Approach to a Renewable Energy scheme

Benefits of a Systems Approach

Requirements and Acceptance within risk management


Agenda








How likely is it that a project will deliver to: Performance? Time? Cost?

Risk Assessments are conducted to: Inform investment

Inform Project Management


Systems Approach

A systems approach is about:

Taking a ‘wide view’ across the system

Taking a ‘long view’ through the project


Agenda







Applying a Systems Approach

An Investment Proposition:

www.tidalstream.co.uk (licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Generic)


Applying a Systems Approach: A Wide View

Investment Considerations:

What is the return?

What is the risk?

Other considerations: Strategic positioning

Portfolio balancing


Electricity

Energy Supply Industry

Generators Transmission Network Electricity Suppliers

Energy Markets

Network Operator

Electricity ConsumerBuy Supply

Sell Supply Buy Supply

Check Power Balance

Demand OutputAlteration


BalancingCost

BalancingCost

PowerFutureValue

NotifyAgreements

NotifyAgreements

Electricity Electricity

Electricity

What Does an Energy Scheme Need to Do?


Energy Supply Industry

Generators Transmission Network Electricity Suppliers

Energy Markets

Network Operator

Electricity ConsumerBuy Supply

Sell Supply Buy Supply

Check Power Balance



BalancingCost

BalancingCost

PowerFutureValue

NotifyAgreements

NotifyAgreements

Electricity Electricity

Electricity

Electricity

What Does an Energy Scheme Need to Do?

Provide Electrical Power Trade in the Energy Market Respond to output change demands



Device



Device

Device Site



Device

Device Site

Grid Connection

Transmission Point of Presence

(PoP)

Electrical Power Grid



Device

Device Site

Grid Connection

Control Equipment

Resource Monitoring

Operator

Resource Prediction

Control System Estate


(PoP)


Electricity Trading Organisations



Device

Maintenance System

Device Site

Grid Connection

Control Equipment

Resource Monitoring

Operator

Port

Support Equipment

Maintenance Crew

Supply Chain

Resource Prediction



(PoP)





Device

Maintenance System

Device Site

Grid Connection

Control Equipment

Resource Monitoring

Operator

Port

Support Equipment

Maintenance Crew

Supply Chain

Resource Prediction



(PoP)




Applying a Systems Approach: Long View

Concept Frozen Design Artefact Scrap/Waste

Design System

Installation System

Disposal System

System of Interest




Design System

Installation System

Disposal System

System of Interest

Technical Risk


Technology Risk

How much will it cost to get the technology ready for deployment?

Research

Development

Operation

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

University of Edinburgh

Pelamis Wave Power Ltd




Design System

Installation System

Disposal System

System of Interest

Provider Risk




Design System

Installation System

Disposal System

System of Interest

Technical RiskOngoing Liabilities


Agenda








Structured and auditable assessment method to ensure everything is considered

Identify Dependencies

Target mitigation resources


Structured Assessment

Device

Maintenance System

Device Site

Grid Connection

Control Equipment

Resource Monitoring

Operator

Port

Support Equipment

Maintenance Crew

Supply Chain

Resource Prediction



(PoP)




Identify Dependencies

Device

Maintenance System

Device Site

Grid Connection

Control Equipment

Resource Monitoring

Operator

Port

Support Equipment

Maintenance Crew

Supply Chain

Resource Prediction



(PoP)




Target Mitigation Effort

Device

Maintenance System

Device Site

Grid Connection

Control Equipment

Resource Monitoring

Operator

Port

Support Equipment

Maintenance Crew

Supply Chain

Resource Prediction



(PoP)




Target Mitigation Effort


Design System

Installation System

Disposal System

System of Interest


Agenda





Managing risk with Requirements and Acceptance


Ongoing Management of Risk

Risk assessment is about Performance Time Cost

To deliver this: Requirements define what is required from each element.

Acceptance ensures that the project is on track to meet those objectives.

Perform

ance

Tim

e

Cost


Requirements

Device

Generate Electrical PowerPower to Breakeven

Monitor ResourceAccuracySampling Rate


Requirements

Device



Site

Resource LevelsEnvironmental ConditionsShipping Lane Constraints


Requirements

Device



Site


Grid ConnectionRequired Power

Quality


Requirements

Device



Site


Grid ConnectionRequired Power

Quality

Maintenance Systems

Supportable Failure Rate


Requirements

Requirements have identified: What the system needs to be able to do to be a success

What constrains how it can be done

Requirements identify where risks may exist Quantify risk Mitigate the risk


Acceptance

Time

Consequence

Design Manufacture Installation


Acceptance

Probability Consequence

Time


Risk Value =Probability x Consequence


Risk Value =Probability x Consequence

Acceptance

Probability Consequence

Design Review

Factory Test

Commissioning

Time



Summary

Application of a Systems Approach to Risk Assessment gives: A structured approach to the identification of risks A means to fully assess the consequence Target mitigation effort

Application of a Requirements and Acceptance Process Identifies what is needed into distinct elements Identifies the constraints imposed by the environment and other

parts of the system Mitigates the risks through progressive acceptance

SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY

www.fnc.co.uk

Dan Wilson

Email: [email protected]

Tel: (0117) 922 62 42

For more information;

“Utilising a Risk-Based Systems Approach in Renewable Energy Due Diligence”, Wilson, D.M., Rowley, P.R., Watson, S.J., IEEE Systems Journal, Issue 5, Volume 2.

Documents

SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Using a Systems Approach in Energy Risk Assessment Dan Wilson The Midlands Energy Graduate School II Annual Conference,