Systems Analysis of Personal Transportation Needs and ... · r s 0 5 10 15 20 25 b illio n $ Cars NV GDP Vehicle Emissions Growth vs GDP Growth from 1990 to 1997 in Beijing 0.75 1.00

Systems Analysis of Personal Transportation Needs and Environmental Implications in the

People’s Republic of China

Karolin Kokaz, Dr. Bingjiang Liu, Prof. Peter RogersHarvard University

Presentation Outline

• Spreadsheet Vehicular Air Pollution Information System

• Motivation for the Optimization Model• The Optimization Model - Urban

Transportation Planning for Air Quality Management

• Automobile emissions are the most rapidly growing source of urban air pollution in most Chinese cities.

• Evaluate strategies and policies for guiding the development of Beijing’s transportation sector.

• Determine the impact of economic policies and environmental regulations on future technology choices.

• Analyze the technological and traffic demand and supply options available to China (Beijing) to reduce vehicular pollution.

• Develop a mathematical model that will give the optimal transportation mix to meet the turnover, environmental goals, and other constraints through a variety of policy options at the minimum cost.

Purpose

Transportation Sector in China• Rapid rate of motorization (both number of

passenger trips and distance of passenger trips increased)

• Outdated vehicle technologies and high emissions characteristics

• Inadequate road infrastructure • Land use structure• Mix of transportation modes• Policies regarding transportation modes

China Beijing• 2500 NGV (1995), SEPA 1997:

4600 CNG and 1300 LPG• Projects for 15,000 LPG and

3000-5000 electric vehicles by 2000

• US and China joint venture for electric bicycle, three wheel bicycle, scooters, and motorcycles

• Ban lead: July 1, 2000• New cars will have electric fuel

injection and catalytic converters

• Euro I: January 1, 2000

• Ban lead: July 1, 1997• Euro I since January 1, 1999• Euro II: July 1, 2000• Beijing government plans to

meet Class 2 air quality standards by 2002

• Reduce sulfur level of gasoline and diesel

• Retirement age of vehicles• Convert 6000 taxis and 60,000

cars to LPG and CNG

Beijing

New housing

Beijing Subway & Light Rail

year NV growth rates Cars growth rates1990 7.70% 10.02%1991 8.34% 6.96%1992 5.68% 9.42%1993 8.10% 21.68%1994 11.49% 7.30%1995 16.73% 32.32%1996 13.30% 29.50%1997 13.74% 29.50%

GDP vs Total # of Vehicles and # of Cars in Beijing

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,00019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

year

tota

l # o

f veh

icle

s an

d #

of c

ars

0

5

10

15

20

25

billi

on $ Cars

NV

GDP

Vehicle Emissions Growth vs GDP Growth from 1990 to 1997 in Beijing

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

1.00 1.09 1.22 1.37 1.72 2.21 2.57 2.87frac tio nal inc re as e in GDP

COCO2HCNOxSO2TSP

Base Year: 1990 = 1

Beijing is developing its suburbanization and decentralization, which will increase the passenger kilometers traveled

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Population in suburban area

Population in rural area

Population in core city

Popu

latio

n, m

illio

n

Source: Beijing’s Master Plan, 1993.

Primarily due to past settlement patterns, the relatively short trips, and government policy to promote bicycle use, Beijing’s transportation heavily relies on buses and bicycles. However, Beijing is beginning to experience a rapid rate of motorization, and most of the recently increased trips come from automobiles.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1981 1986 1990 1995

Percentage of Passenger Trips by Various Transportation Modes

Private carTaxiSubwayBusBicycle

7.2

9.310.2

1.4

3.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

London New York Paris Tokyo Beijing0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140V

ehic

le o

wne

rshi

p, m

illio

n

NO

xco

ncen

trat

ion,

µg/

m3

Beijing is characterized by its low vehicle ownership and high pollution: Comparison of Beijing with four big cities

Data for Beijing is in 1998. Others are in 1990.

Share of Air Pollutant Emissions from the Mobile Sector

CO HC NOx SO2 PMMexico, 1994 100% 53.3% 70% 26.5% 4.3%Santiago, 1992 94.2% 82.7% 84.6% 24% 11.5%São Paulo, 1995 96.4% 90.9% 97.3% 85.5% 42.7%Rio de Janeiro, 1978 96.4% 73.2% 69.6% 9.5% 3.5%Beijing, 1992 63.4% 73.5% 21.7%Beijing, 1995 86.2% 49.1% 10%

Source: World Bank Report. Vehicular Air Pollution: Experience from Seven Latin American Urban Cities, 1997. Data in Beijing comes from the report titled China’s Strategies for Controlling Motor Vehicle Emissions, 1997.

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000N

o. o

f Veh

icle

s

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Historical Vehicle Growth in Beijing

MCsTaxisBusesHDDVHDGVLDVCars

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

no. o

f veh

icle

s

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

Vehicle Growth in Beijing

MCHDDVHDGVLDVBusesTaxisCars

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

no. o

f veh

icle

s

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Trend of % of Vehicles by Type in Beijing


0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14

1980

1986

1992

1998

2004

2010

2016

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

no. o

f veh

icle

s

age

year

Age Distribution of All Vehicles in Beijing (1980-2020)

1 98 0 1 98 1

1 98 2 1 98 3

1 98 4 1 98 5

1 98 6 1 98 7

1 98 8 1 98 9

1 99 0 1 99 1

1 99 2 1 99 3

1 99 4 1 99 5

1 99 6 1 99 7

1 99 8 1 99 9

2 00 0 2 00 1

2 00 2 2 00 3

2 00 4 2 00 5

2 00 6 2 00 7

2 00 8 2 00 9

2 01 0 2 01 1

2 01 2 2 01 3

2 01 4 2 01 5

2 01 6 2 01 7

2 01 8 2 01 9

2 02 0

Vehicle Fleet Average HC Emission Factors Trend

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019av

g. e

mis

sion

s fa

ctor

s (g

/km

)

CarsTaxisBusesLDVHDGVHDDVMC

Vehicle Fleet Average NOx Emission Factors Trend

020406080

100120140160180

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

avg.

em

issi

ons

fact

ors

(g/k

m)


Vehicle Growth, Speed, Fuel Efficiency and

Emission Factors for Cars

Vehicle Growth and Reduced Speeds

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

year

no o

f veh

icle

s

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

velo

city

(km

/hr)

NVSpeed

Fuel Efficiency and Emission Factors vs Speed

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

velocity (km/hr)

EF (g

/km

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

FE (k

m/lt

) COHCNOxFE

Speed Effect on Fuel Efficiencies and Emission Factors

RA(t) = RA95+SUM(t,AM(“ro”,t)×width)Speed(t) = [-10.635×ln(NV(t))+168.3]×[RA(t)/RA95]×(1+Σfri¹)×(1±fhb2)FEold(v,f,t) = FE95(v,f)×[(1+imp3(v,f)/100)(ORD(t)-1)]

FEnew(v,t) = A(v)×Speed(t)0.2501

FE(v,f,t) = FEold(v,f,t)×FEnew(t)/FEnew(“1995”)EFs(p,v,f,t) = A(v,p,f)×Speed(t)B(v,p,f)

EF(p,v,f,”avg”,t) =E= [(SUM(f,EF(p,v,f,”0”,t)×NV(v,”0”,f,t))+SUM((a,f),EF(p,v,f,”avg”,t-1)×NV(v,a,f,t)))/(SUM((f,a),NV(v,a,f,t)))]×EFs(p,v,f,t)/EFs(p,v,f,“1995”);

EF(“SO2”,v,f,”avg”,t) =E= 2×scontent4×density(f)×1000/FE(v,f,t)EF(“TSP”,v,f,”avg”,t) =E= pcontent4×density(f)/FE(v,f,t)

1 fri: fractional increase in speed from the use of control options2 fhb: fractional increase/decrease in speed from the use of HOV and bus lanes3 imp(v,f) annual fuel efficiency improvement rate4 scontent is the % sulfur content of fuel f and pcontent is the g/kg particulates content of fuel f

UNREGULATED REGULATED

02000400060008000

100001200014000160001800020000

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

CO Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing


05000

100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019



05000

100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019




0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

HC Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019



Percentage of Emissions by Vehicles in 1995

CO Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

Cars14%

Taxis19%

LDV47%

Buses2%

HDDV1%HDGV

15%

MC2% Cars

TaxisBusesLDVHDGVHDDVMC

HC Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

LDV59%

Taxis13%

Cars10%

Buses1%

MC6%HDGV

8%

HDDV3% Cars


Total = 1,627,111 tons/yr

Total = 235,024 tons/yr




CO Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

LDV40%

Taxis8%

Cars40%

Buses1%

HDDV1%

HDGV8%

MC2% Cars


HC Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

LDV51%

Taxis6%

Cars34%

Buses1%

MC2%

HDGV5%

HDDV1% Cars



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

NOx Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019




0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

TSP Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing


0123456789

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019



0123456789

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019




NOx Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

LDV39%

Taxis7%

Cars5% Buses

7%

MC0%

HDGV6%

HDDV36%


TSP Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

LDV15%

Taxis6%

Cars4% Buses

9%HDDV61%

HDGV4%

MC1% Cars



Total = 818 tons/yr




TSP Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

LDV24%

Taxis2%

Cars38%

Buses5%

HDDV28%

HDGV3%

MC0% Cars


NOx Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

LDV48%

Taxis8%

Cars24%

Buses6%

MC0%HDGV

3%

HDDV11% Cars



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

SO2 Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019




020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

CO2 Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019



0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

tons

/day

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019



Percentage of Emissions by Vehicles in 1995 Percentage of Emissions by Vehicles in 2020

CO2 Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

LDV45%

Cars13%

Taxis18%

Buses3%

MC4%

HDGV5%

HDDV12% Cars


CO2 Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

LDV41%

Cars50%

Taxis4%

Buses1%

MC1%

HDGV1%

HDDV2%


Total = 9,922,926 tons/yr Total = 60,153,968 tons/yr

SO2 Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

LDV33%

Taxis12%

Cars9%

Buses5%

HDDV30%

HDGV9%

MC2% Cars


SO2 Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day)

LDV33%

Taxis3%

Cars48%

Buses2%

HDDV9%HDGV

4%

MC1% Cars


Total = 5,759 tons/yr Total = 26,232 tons/yr

VKT, No. of Vehicles, and Emissions Trend

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

CO NOx SO2 HC TSP CO2 NV VKT

Inde

x: 1

980

= 1

UNREGULATED REGULATEDCO Concentration in Beijing City

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

mic

rogr

ams/

m3

CO conc.CO std

CO Concentration in Beijing City

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

mic

rogr

ams/

m3

CO conc.CO std

NOx Concentration in Beijing City

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

mic

rogr

ams/

m3

NOx conc.NOx std

NOx Concentration in Beijing City

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

mic

rogr

ams/

m3

NOx conc.NOx std

UNREGULATED REGULATEDTSP Concentration in Beijing City

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

mic

rogr

ams/

m3

TSP conc.TSP std

TSP Concentration in Beijing City

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

mic

rogr

ams/

m3

TSP conc.TSP std

SO2 Concentration in Beijing City

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

mic

rogr

ams/

m3

SO2 conc.SO2 std

SO2 Concentration in Beijing City

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

mic

rogr

ams/

m3

SO2 conc.SO2 std

Health Impacts of Mobile Sources Emissions in Beijing

DRC Cases Cost/Case Total Cost Cases Cost/Case Total Cost Cases Cost/Case Total CostUS $ US $ million US $ US $ million US $ US $ million

1995 2000 2020Premature mortality(/1million) 16.6 10152 36804.03 373.65 14714 49183.57 723.67 43940 130487.03 5733.55

1.2 7339 855.91 6.28 10636 1143.80 12.17 31764 3034.58 96.3923.5 143723 21.40 3.08 208295 28.60 5.96 622037 75.86 47.19

0.0575 29363785 5.14 150.80 42556497 6.86 292.06 127087369 18.21 2313.940.00169 170541 85.59 14.60 247162 114.38 28.27 738106 303.46 223.98

Asthma attacks(/asthmatic) 0.0326 2392525 6.85 16.38 3467451 9.15 31.73 10354924 24.28 251.380.183 93453437 0.86 79.99 135440676 1.14 154.92 404469365 3.03 1227.40

Chronic bronchitis(/100,000) 6.12 37429 8559.08 320.36 54245 11438.04 620.46 161994 30345.82 4915.85965.12 1869.23 14809.68

Premature mortality(/1million) 2.4 253 36804.03 9.31 553 49183.57 27.22 2183 130487.03 284.89RS in children(/1000children) 0.018 313 0.86 0.00 685 1.14 0.00 2702 3.03 0.01Chest discomfort in adults(/adult) 0.01 879631 0.86 0.75 1925356 1.14 2.20 7595949 3.03 23.05

10.06 29.42 307.95

975.18 1898.65 15117.63

PM10

RHA (/100,000)ERV (/100,000)RAD in adults (/adult)LRI in children(/child)

RS in adults(/adult)

TOTAL

Subtotal

SO2

Subtotal

RHA: respiratory hospital visits, ERV: emergency room visits, RAD: restricted activity days, LRI: lower respiratory illnesses, RS: respiratory symptoms.

Value of Time and Fuel Costs of Commuting & Health Costs of Mobile Sources Emissions in Beijing

million $ 1995 2000 2020Value of Time 182.33 743.63 19,514.94Fuel Costs 641.00 1,569.22 19,509.85Health Costs 975.18 1,898.65 15,117.62

Also should include accidents costs, and agricultural and materials damages from air pollution.

Costs under Different 2020 Scenarios for BeijingAt 6 km/hr At 16km/hr With Tokyo's pass-trip mix

million $ 2020 2020 2020Value of Time 19,514.94 9,348.51 8,631.77Fuel Cost 19,509.85 15,281.42 17,879.25Health Costs 15,117.62 11,794.00 8,635.45Total 54,142.41 36,423.93 35,146.47

MATHEMATICAL MODEL

• Include all modes of transportation• Include different types of fuels and

technologies for each mode• Include investment opportunities in

infrastructure for all transportation modes• Include different control options

TRANSPORTATION MODES FOR BEIJING

methanolHDV

Motor Vehicles

Cars

Taxis

LDV

Buses

HDGV - gasoline

HDDV - diesel

MC

Tricycles

hybrid

fuel cells

methanol

electric

natural gas

gasoline

methanol

natural gas

electric

gasoline

Light Rail - electric

Subway - electric

Walk

Bicycle

ethanol

electric

diesel

gasoline

ethanol

LPG

electric

natural gas

ethanol

LPG

diesel

gasoline

hybrid

hybrid

diesel

Energy Use per Km and per Passenger-Km for Different Transportation Modes in Beijing (1995)

4.206

4.043

8.529

4.849

1.132

13.140

20.232

1.682

1.123

0.171

1.616

0.943

0.060

0.169

Cars

Taxis

Buses

LDV

MC

Subway

Light-Rail

MJ/pass-kmMJ/km

Emissions/Passenger-km for Different Modes of Transportation in Beijing

year CO NOx SO2 HC TSP CO2

cars 1995 24.44 0.7134 0.0509 2.528 0.0034 120.6taxis 1995 16.46 0.5029 0.0349 1.664 0.0023 88.4

buses 1995 1.90 0.4692 0.0154 0.193 0.0037 13.9LDV 1995 24.68 1.5786 0.0607 4.560 0.0041 145.4MC 1995 12.81 0.0745 0.0299 4.434 0.0020 122.3All 1995 15.04 1.3582 0.0629 2.405 0.0104 99.0

emissions/pass-km (g/pass-km)

CO Emissions Per Passenger Km (1995)

24.44

16.46

1.90

24.68

12.81

0 10 20 30

cars

taxis

buses

LDV

MC

g/pass-km

Pollution Control Options for The Transportation Sector• Technology options (such as new vehicle emission standards, fuelreformulation, alternative fuels) alone are not enough - standards will still be exceeded• Infrastructure investments (build roads and develop infrastructure to sustain the growth in transportation) - road area in Beijing is 6.1% whereas in other developed cities goes up to 30%• Traffic management options to reduce congestion and increase speeds (a set of transportation system improvements such as arranging the traffic flow direction, and installation and better coordination of traffic signals)• Employer based controls such as giving transit passes, arranging telecommuting programs, providing ride-matching information and services, and modified work schedules• Enhanced I/M and accelerated vehicle retirement programs• Improve public transit as a good alternative for the commuters and also by options such as parking management and road fees discourage extensive use of cars• Environmental education and awareness programs• Land use management

Control Options To Be Considered in The Model

• Incentive related and educational policy options:– education and driver behavior– ride sharing– telecommuting

• TDM measures– I/M programs– traffic management– parking management– provide HOV and bus lanes

• Technical policy options– engine designs– improve fuel quality– catalytic converters– fuel switching– decrease scrappage rate– infrastructure investments– increase transit services

• Pricing Measures:– tax measures– subsidize transit services– subsidize clean fuels

MAX NET BENEFITS =Value of Time, Healthand Materials Damages - Costsfrom Vehicular Air Pollution

Change Constraints

MIN TOTAL COSTS

Look at results of $, Health, Time, and Other Damages.

Agree on Policy

air quality standardstotal emission limitsdemand constraint (pass-km)budget constraintfuel capacity limitslogical constraints

stair quality standardstotal emission limitsdemand constraint (pass-km)budget constraintfuel capacity limitslogical constraintsAccounting on Value of Time, Healthand Materials Damages

st

Total Costs = Costs of Implementing a Package of Policy Options

= Fuel Costs + Cost of Vehicle + Infrastructure Investments

+ Other Operations and Maintenance Costs

= ∑ present value of all annualized costs

• Construction costs• Land costs

• Technology options• Fuel options• Management options• Legislative options• Incentive related and

educational options• Pricing measures

• repairs, maintenance, tires,oil,…

• parking costs• ownership costs (insurance,

license, registration, taxes,depreciation, finance charge)

For example: lifetime forhighways may be assumedto be 35 years and forrailroads 50 years.

For example for rail:• Capital expenditure for electrification• Signals and train control facilities• Per mile road bed trackage costs• Terminal costs• Operations and maintenance costs

+ cost from switching fuel & cost of control options utilized – cost

of fuel savings

CONSTRAINTS

• Sum of demand (pass-km) by each mode (t) ≤ Turnover projections (t)

• Annualized Infrastructure Investment Costs + Public Transport Vehicle Costs and their O&M costs + Costs of

Control Options + Subsidies – Taxes ≤ Budget for each year allocated to the transportation sector

• Total Emissions (taking into consideration the reductions resulting from the use of different policy options) ≤ Air

Quality Limits

• Concentration of Each Pollutant (as a function of emissions) ≤ Air Quality Standards

• Logical Constraints (example: sum of fraction of vehicle v using option oo equals 1)

• Age distribution, emission factors calculation, fuel efficiencies, calculation of electricity use by electric vehicle v,

speeds, fuel consumption, # of vehicles in each year, infrastructure construction, and utilization of control options

• Bounds on vehicle numbers for different types & fuel switching option for vehicles

• Calculation of fractional reduction of commute time from investments into infrastructure (keeping in mind the

increase in the total # of vehicles)

• Fuel Capacity Limits (example: Total use of NG in transportation sector in year i ≤ Total available NG supply for

the transportation sector for that year)

• Social Cost Equation ($) = Value of Time + Health Impacts of Air Pollution + Materials Damages from Air

Pollution In traffic time each hour may beassumed to be worth 50% of yourwage

Increase in concentration of pollutantsdue to mobile sources emissions result inhealth and materials damages.

Types of Results from The Model∗ Optimization of urban transportation systems for minimum overall cost and least

environmental damage meeting all economic, technical, and policy constraints will yield the following information:

• Obtain trade-off curves for cost, emissions, and pass-km demand • Average vehicle emission factors, fuel efficiencies, vehicle population (type, age, fuel),

land use patterns, fuel consumption• Breakdown of turnover (% of pass-km demand and VKT being satisfied by each mode)• Cost breakdown (%) of the optimal system over the model time horizon: vehicle costs,

O&M costs, fuel costs, infrastructure investments, fuel switching costs, costs of control options utilized

• Investment into different control options each year• % of fuel switching of vehicle v from fuel type f to f1 and extent of control options

utilized each year and over the total model time horizon• Total emissions of pollutant p from mobile sources exhaust emissions from each vehicle

type v• Resulting concentrations from these emissions and health impacts• Social costs: health and materials damages from air pollution caused by vehicle

emissions and value of time spent in traffic• Energy consumption by each mode • Shadow prices of constraints• Vehicle growth rates, mode choice, road area, number of vehicles per km of road,

average road speeds

Passenger-kilometer travel (PKT)

Non-Motorized Vehicles

Motorized Vehicles

wal

k

bicy

cle

Roadway Railway

othe

rs

mot

orcy

cle

taxi car

bus

light

rail

subw

ay

Turnover demand

Transport mode

Fuel availability

Air amelioration

Socialbenefits

GasDieselNGLPGElectricMethanol

others

Electric

ity

Diesel

Local

air

ameli

orat

ion

Reduced health and materials damage, and time savings

Capital cost

Vehicle costDepreciationO&M costOwnership costsPollution controlOthers

Fuel cost

Local air

amelioration

Emission capsEm

ission

caps

Other requirements

Constraints

Traff

ic co

nges

tion

Budget constraints

Logic

al lim

its

Other constraints

Other costsLD

V

Max

imiz

e be

nefit

s →M

inim

ize

tota

l ann

ualiz

ed c

osts

The transportation system should emphasize the movement of people, not vehicles.

ADVANTAGES• Simulation vs Optimization• Extensive list of control options• Passenger-km demand as the driving force• Time frame (annual) evaluation - not one step future• Valuation of future costs and accounting on social

costs• User friendly design at the fingertips of the decision

maker• Visual representation of final optimal set of options

(GIS)

Documents

Systems Analysis of Personal Transportation Needs and ... · r s 0 5 10 15 20 25 b illio n $ Cars NV GDP Vehicle Emissions Growth vs GDP Growth from 1990 to 1997 in Beijing 0.75 1.00