Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis
for Buildings, Lifeline Network
and Infrastructures Safety Gain
www.syner-g.eu
August 2014
Natural
Hazards
SYNER-G // Summary
SYNER-G is a European collaborative research project funded by the European Commission
(Seventh Framework Program, Theme 6: Environment) under Grant Agreement no. 244061
with a project duration of 41 months (2009-2013).
SYNER-G developed an innovative methodological framework for the assessment of physical
as well as socio-economic seismic vulnerability at the urban/regional level. The built
environment is modeled according to a detailed taxonomy into its component systems,
grouped into the following categories: buildings, transportation and utility networks, and
critical facilities. Each category may have several types of components. The framework
encompasses in an integrated fashion all aspects in the chain, from regional hazard to
fragility assessment of components to the socioeconomic impacts of an earthquake,
accounting for all relevant uncertainties within an efficient quantitative simulation scheme,
and modeling interactions between the multiple component systems in the taxonomy. The
layout of SYNER-G methodology and software tools is illustrated in Figure 1. The prototype
software developed in SYNER-G provides several tools for pre and post-processing to
estimate seismic losses and to evaluate post seismic needs and priorities (Figure 2).
The SYNER-G methodology and tools have been tested to selected case studies at urban
level: the city of Thessaloniki in Greece and the city of Vienna in Austria, at system level: the
gas system of L’Aquila in Italy, the road network of Calabria region in Southern Italy and the
electric power network of Sicily, as well as in complex infrastructures: a hospital facility in
Italy and the harbor of Thessaloniki, accounting for inter- and intra-dependencies among
infrastructural components and systems.
SYNER-G // Highlights
• > 80 Deliverables*
• 7 Pilot studies
• Software tools*
• 2 Books in Springer editions
• 7 Reference reports*
• 2 Technical workshops
• Final international workshop
* available at: www.syner-g.eu
Figure 1 // Layout of SYNER-G Methodology & Software tools.
Figure 2 // Layout of the SYNER-G platform (EQvis).
SYNER-G // Main achievements
1 Analysis of seismic risk to spatially distributed
and inter-connected systems generates a
new set of requirements from hazard
analysis.
A Monte Carlo hazard simulation is
performed for the generation of ground
motion intensity measures (IMs). From the
seismic hazard model a synthetic set of
earthquakes is simulated, and for each
earthquake a realisation of ground motion
fields (corresponding to each IM required for
the risk analysis) is generated. The spatial
correlation (within each field) and spatial
cross-correlation (between fields of different
IMs) is taken into account.
Site effects and various geotechnical
hazards (liquefaction, fault crossing,
landslide displacements) are also
considered.
The seismic hazard is defined based on the
SHARE EC/FP7 project results.
2
The physical elements are the built
environment while the social elements are
represented by demographic and socio-
economic data. It is essential to compile
inventory databases of elements at risk
and to make a classification on the basis of
pre-defined typology definitions.
Unified and harmonized typology and taxonomy definitions are proposed for the
European physical assets at risk: i) Buildings – reinforced concrete and masonry, ii) Utility
Networks – water, waste water, gas, oil, and electricity, iii) Transportation Networks –
roadways, railways and harbour systems and iv) Critical Facilities – health-care and fire-
fighting facilities. Different remote sensing techniques have been tested and applied to
obtain inventories in specific case studies, together with census data, owner/operators
data, and ground surveys.
3
Fragility curves constitute one of the
key elements of seismic risk
assessment.
A comprehensive review has been
carried out of fragility curves for the
most important elements at risk. New
fragility curves have been developed
where necessary, considering the
distinctive features of European
elements.
A Fragility Function Manager Tool has been developed able to store, visualize, harmonize
and compare a large number of fragility functions sets.
4
A systemic analysis methodology and tool is
developed for Buildings, Water Supply System,
Waste Water Network, Electrical Power
Network, Oil and Gas Networks, Transportation
Network, Health Care System and Harbours.
Each system is specified with: (i) the taxonomy
describing the components within the system,
(ii) the solving algorithms that are used to
evaluate the system’s performance and (iii) the
nature of the interdependencies with
components from other systems.
The Object-Oriented framework,
where the problem is decomposed in a
number of interacting objects, is used
to build the system’s classes.
Performance evaluation functions are
defined in order to assess the response
of the system based on the
functionality of its components.
Interdependencies between systems
are modelled in the SYNER-G
framework in order to assess the
vulnerability of the system of systems.
SYNER-G // Main achievements
5
The innovative methodological
framework developed in SYNER-G allows
the assessment of physical as well as
socio-economic seismic vulnerability and
risk of an infrastructure at the
urban/regional scale. The framework
allows for pre-event performance
assessment for the immediate aftermath
of the event, i.e. with a goal of forecasting
the short-term impact, when the
damaged infrastructure operates in a
state of emergency, in order to prepare
mitigation measures.
Representative results are building damages,
casualties (deaths, injuries, displaced people),
connectivity or flow analysis-based
performance indicators (PI) for networks and
infrastructures and mean annual frequency of
exceedance of the PIs. Distribution of
estimated damages and losses for specific
events is given through thematic maps.
Disaggregation of networks’ performance is
carried out to define the components that are
most correlated to loss of perfomance.
6
Socio-economic losses are assessed including
shelter needs, health impact and
accessibility models. A Multi-criteria Decision
Analysis tool is applied, which provides
decision makers with a dynamic decision-
support platform to capture post-disaster
emergency shelter demand decisions.
Apart from building and utility losses,
building usability, building habitability and
social vulnerability of the affected
population together with socio-economic
indicators (Urban Audit/EUROSTAT) are
considered in the analysis.
SYNER-G // Representative application results
City of Thessaloniki, Greece // The needs for shelters in each sub-city district (0-12) are
classified from “low to high” considering socio-economic, climatic, spatial and temporal
factors in addition to modelled building damage states.
City of Thessaloniki, Greece // The accessibility level of the sub-city districts (0-12) to health
care services is classified from “low to high” considering the damages to roads due to soil
liquefaction, bridge damage due to ground shaking and road blockages due to overpass
bridges and adjacent building collapses.
Shelter Needs Index
(SNI)
0.00 - 0.03 low
0.03 - 0.06
0.06 - 0.19
0.19 - 0.33
0.33 - 0.61 high
SYNER-G // Representative application results
Interaction of water supply (WSS) and electric power network (EPN), Thessaloniki, Greece //
Level of correlation between the damaged WSS and EPN components and the displaced
people. It is observed that the correlation is higher with the EPN substations, which
highlights the importance of the interaction between EPN loss and building habitability.
Gas system in L’Aquila, Italy // Relative frequency of the number of damaged M/R stations
conditional to the Connectivity Loss (CL, left) and Serviceability Ratio (SR, right). The
disaggregation of seismic performance allows identifying the damaged M/R stations that
provide the largest causative contribution to the risk.
Electric power network of Sicily, Italy // Contour map of expected values of Voltage Ratio
(VR), averaged on the whole simulation for each demand node. It can be seen that the
reduction in voltage due to seismically induced damage is less than the tolerated threshold
of 10%, allowing the power demand delivery everywhere in the island.
Harbour of Thessaloniki, Greece // Correlation of damaged cranes to port performance. The
most critical components can be defined in relation with their contribution to the
performance loss of the system. All cranes have medium (40-70%) to high (over 70%) levels
of correlation, indicating their great importance to the functionality of the overall port
system.
SYNER-G // Representative application results
Hospital facility and regional health-care system in Italy // Mean Annual Frequency curves of
normalised casualties (divided in two categories) that are not allocated in hospitals. As an
example, the return period of the event with the 0.1% of the regional population that
cannot receive the (needed) surgical treatment (red curve) is 100 years.
Brigittenau district in the city of Vienna, Austria // Number of buildings collapsed (left) and
yield (middle), and number of injuries (right) for a selected event of M= 5.4.
SYNER-G // Consortium
SYNER-G coordinated the expertise and multidisciplinary skills of 12 European participants,
coming from seven European Member States, together with partners from Norway and
Turkey. The scientific and technological excellence of the project consortium was further
improved by the participation of two highly experienced partners from the U.S. and Japan
with relevant and long standing knowledge on vulnerability and seismic risk management.
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (coordinator), Greece
Vienna Consulting Engineers, Austria
Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres, France
Commission of the EC - Joint Research Centre, Belgium
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Norway
University of Pavia, Italy
University of Roma “La Sapienza”, Italy
Middle East Technical University, Turkey
AMRA, University of Naples Federico II, Italy
University of Karlsruhe, Germany
University of Patras, Greece
Willis Group Holdings, United Kingdom
Mid-America Earthquake Center, University of Illinois, USA
Kobe University, Japan
Contact info
Address:
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Department of Civil Engineering
P.O. Box 424 GR-54124 Thessaloniki - GREECE
Prof Kyriazis Pitilakis (Co-ordinator)
Laboratory of Soil Mechanics, Foundations
and Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering
Telephone : +30.2310.995693 / 995728
Fax : +30.2310.995619
E-mail : [email protected]
https://www.syner-g.eu/
SYNER-G was supported by the European Commission
Seventh Framework Program, Theme 6: Environment (Grant agreement no: 244061)
Project Officer
Dr Denis Peter
European Commission, Research Directorate-General
