System of Ecological Forecasting (SEF): Users' Manual

Pegov, S., Khomyakov, B., Kroutko, V., Nikitin, E. and Nikolayenko, E.

IIASA Working Paper

WP-83-086

August 1983

Pegov, S., Khomyakov, B., Kroutko, V., Nikitin, E. and Nikolayenko, E. (1983) System of Ecological Forecasting (SEF):

Users' Manual. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, WP-83-086 Copyright © 1983 by the author(s).

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SYSTEM OF ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING (SEF) : USERS ' MANUAL

S. Pegov P. Khomyakov V. Kroutko E. Nikitin E. Nikolayenko

A d a p t i v e R e s o u r c e P o Z i c i e s P r o j e c t , I IASA

August 1983 WP- 8 3- 8 6

Working Papers are interim reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and have received only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily repre- sent those of the Institute or of its National Member Organizations.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION, 1

1. OVERVIEW OF THE MODEL, 1

2. GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE SYSTEM, 4

3. MODELLING STAGES, 5

REFERENCES, 26

APPENDIX 1 , 27

APPENDIX 2, 29

APPENDIX 3, 31

SYSTEM OF ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING (SEF) : USERS ' MANUAL

INTRODUCTION

The sys tem o f e c o l o g i c a l f o r e c a s t i n g (SEF) c r e a t e d a t t h e

All-Union Research I n s t i t u t e f o r Systems S t u d i e s (VNIISI) i n

Moscow, i s des igned f o r a n a l y z i n g and f o r e c a s t i n g changes i n

l o c a l env i ronmenta l c o n d i t i o n s , which may r e s u l t from human

a c t i v i t i e s w i t h i n a r e g i o n , n a t u r a l c a l a m i t i e s , o r g l o b a l changes.

The b a s i c p o r t i o n o f t h e sys tem is an i n t e g r a t e d model o f env i ron-

menta l ad jus tment . Access t o t h e model i s ach ieved through

an i n t e r a c t i v e procedure des igned t o meet t h e requ i rements of

u s e r s w i t h . d i f f e r e n t backgrounds i n eco logy and programming.

A l l programs a r e w r i t t e n i n FORTRAN 77 . The model h a s been

s u c c e s s f u l l y a p p l i e d f o r p r o j e c t i n g t h e outcomes o f v a r i o u s

p o l i c y o p t i o n s i n f o r e s t r y and r e g i o n a l development.

1. OVERVIEW OF THE MODEL

The model d e a l s w i t h env i ronmenta l l y homogeneous a r e a s

( r e g i o n s ) n o t less t h a n 10,000 km2 i n s i z e . The s p e c i f i c a t i o n

o f t h e equa t i ons i nc l uded i n t h e model i s based on t h e h i s t o r i c

e v o l u t i o n o f p a r a g e n e t i c s e t s o f l a n d s . The model c o n s i s t s o f

3 submodels ( s e c t o r s ) , devoted t o t h e ad jus tment o f d i f f e r e n t

sets of env i ronmenta l pa ramete rs : t h e b i o t i c s e c t o r , t h e wa te r

s e c t o r , and p o l l u t i o n s e c t o r .

The b i o t i c s e c t o r covers t h e rep roduc t i on o f v e g e t a t i o n

(b iomass) , a s w e l l a s changes i n t h e amount o f dead biomass

and s o i l f e r t i l i t y . * The model d i s t i n g u i s h e s 3 t ypes o f l ands :

- l a n d s no t used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l pu rposes ; - l a n d s used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes; and - wet lands

and a v a r i e t y of v e g e t a t i o n t y p e s , such a s t u n d r a , t a i g a , d i f f e r -

e n t k i nds of f o r e s t s , e t c . The model a l s o accoun ts f o r p o s s i b l e

s h i f t s from one t y p e of v e g e t a t i o n t o ano the r a s a r e s u l t o f

changes i n env i ronmenta l c o n d i t i o n s .

The b i o t i c pa ramete rs o f t h e model a r e r e s p o n s i b l e t o

exogenous d i s t u r b a n c e s ( p o l i c y measures, n a t u r a l c a l a m i t i e s ,

g l o b a l changes a s w e l l a s i n p u t s from o t h e r s e c t o r s of t h e model ) .

The fo l l ow ing o p t i o n s may be i nc l uded i n t h e user -de f ined

s c e n a r i o :

- changes i n tempera tu re t r e n d - changes i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n t r e n d - changes i n t h e amount of p o l l u t a n t s and f e r t i l i z e r s - changes i n i r r i g a t i o n - changes i n t h e amount o f biomass caused by f i r e s on

l ands n o t used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes

- new f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s on l a n d s n o t used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes

- new s h e l t e r b e l t s

The wa te r s e c t o r o f t h e model covers su r face-wate r f l ows ,

ground-water f lows (upper and deeper l a y e r s ) , and wa te r reser-

v o i r s . The o u t p u t of t h i s s e c t o r i n c l u d e s t h e d e n s i t y o f e r o s i o n

fur rows, t h e r a t e s of ground-water f l ows , s o i l s a l i n i t y , and

o t h e r h y d r o l o g i c a l p a r a n e t e r s . * *

*The r e a d e r w i l l f i n d a more d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h i s s e c t o r i n Kroutko e t a l . ( 1982a ,b ) .

**The model does n o t g i v e t h e r a t e s o f su r face-wate r f l ows , s i n c e t h i s i s l a r g e l y a s p a t i a l problem, which cannot be reso l ved by means of a s t r u c t u r a l model.

The i n p u t s t o t h i s s e c t o r inc lude :

- user s p e c i f i e d changes i n dra inage i n t e n s i t y and i n t h e amount of l and , covered wi th r e s e r v o i r ( l a k e s , ponds, e t c . )

- user s p e c i f i e d chanqes i n t h e qround-water s tock (a rount o f water pupped f o r i r r i g a t i o n purposes)

- user s p e c i f i e d changes i n t h e amount of land used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes; water de lays i n i r r i g a t i o n

- c l i m a t i c changes (g loba l , s p e c i f i e d by t h e u s e r ) - o t h e r changes i n eco log i ca l parameters of t h e reg ion ,

which a r e ou tpu ts from t h e b i o t i c and p o l l u t i o n s e c t o r s

of t h e model

The p o l l u t i o n s e c t o r i s , i n a sense, a s u p e r s t r u c t u r e

designed f o r t h e d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s of one of t h e major anthro-

pogenic f a c t o r s , i . e . , p o l l u t i o n . The p o l l u t a n t s which a r e

inc luded i n t h e model f a l l i n t o the fo l lowing c a t e g o r i e s :

- s u l f u r ox ides - n i t rogen ox ides - n i t rogen , phosphorous, and organ ic combinat ions

The l a t t e r a r e a c t u a l l y f e r t i l i z e r s , bu t a s they a r e dampened

i n water , they a r e p o l l u t a n t s and we have t h e r e f o r e included

them i n t h e p o l l u t i o n s e c t o r .

The type of chemical t ransformat ion of t h e p o l l u t a n t s depends

upon t h e environment, t h e r e f o r e t h e p o l l u t i o n of a i r , s o i l ,

and water a r e t r e a t e d s e p a r a t e l y ( t h i s i s a l s o t r u e f o r d i f f e r -

e n t t ypes of l a n d s ) . The t ransformat ion of f e r t i l i z e r s which

form durab le combinat ions wi th s o i l components a r e n o t cons idered,

though t h e model accounts f o r t h e improvement of s o i l due t o

f e r t i l i z a t i o n .

The p o l l u t i o n submodels assumes two k inds of c o n t r o l :

- changes i n p o l l u t i o n r a t e s by type of environment ( a i r , water , s o i l )

- changes i n t h e r a t e s of chemical t rans fo rmat ion of t h e p o l l u t a n t s , which a r e a r e s u l t of changes i n water f low

and depend on t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e of t h e ecosys te rs (which

i s an ou tpu t from t h e o t h e r submodels)

The t h r e e submodels mentioned above form an i n t e g r a t e d

model of l o c a l environmental development. The system a l s o

inc ludes a number of s e r v i c e modules, which w i l l be d iscussed

below. Here we s h a l l on ly mention t h e i n i t i a l i z a t i o n module

which au tomat ica l l y s e t s t h e va lues of t h e environmental param-

e t e r s corresponding t o an aggregated (mostly v e r b a l ) d e s c r i p t i o n

of t h e reg ion s p e c i f i e d by t h e use r .

The approach i s based on t h e assumption t h a t t h e quan t i -

t a t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e reg ion c l o s e l y c o r r e l a t e t o a

l i m i t e d number of aggregated reg iona l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such a s

c l i m a t i c zone, type of topography, type of l i t h o l o g y , so t h a t th.e

d isaggregated va lues may be def ined wi th a reasonable degree

of accuracy on t h e b a s i s of t h e ve rba l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e

environment s p e c i f i e d by t h e user . However, t h i s approach

imp l ies a r a t h e r h igh degree of aggregat ion. A l l t h e use r

s p e c i f i e d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s should r e l a t e t o t h e reg ion a s a

whole, i . e . , r ep resen t average va lues . S im i la r l y t o i n p u t s ,

t h e ou tpu ts of t h e model r e f e r only t o t h e genera l t r end of

reg iona l development. The r e s u l t s , however, a r e by no means

t r i v i a l . Computer exper iments have shown t h a t t h e model suc-

c e s s f u l l y copes wi th t h e e f f e c t s o f : s o i l d e t e r i o r a t i o n , f o r e s t

degradat ion caused by a c i d r a i n s , var ious changes i n t h e compo-

s i t i o n of s o i l and water a s a r e s u l t of a g r i c u l t u r a l development,

and changes i n p o t e n t i a l product ion of va r i ous c rops , r e s u l t i n g

from c l ima te changes.

2 . GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE SYSTEM

We hope t h a t t h e u s e r w i l l f i n d t h e system easy and con-

ven ien t t o work wi th . It was designed t o s a t i s f y t h e requ i re -

ments of t h e u s e r s wi th l i t t l e o r no background i n programming

and computers. Inpu t mis takes ( i f t r a c e d by t h e system) a r e

ignored. The most f requen t d i s p l a y is a l i s t of op t i ons ; t h e

use r has only t o spec i f y t h e op t ion number which does no t

usua l l y r e q u i r e much e f f o r t .

Other advantages of t h e system inc lude t h e fo l lowing:

- i n t e r a c t i v e access t o t h e model - t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n of t h e reg ion can be saved f o r f u t u r e use - t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n of scenar ios can be saved and r e s t o r e d

i n case t h e use r wishes t o make a l t e r a t i o n s

- in format ion on t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e of t h e system i s a v a i l - a b l e upon t h e reques t of t h e use r

- t h e r e s u l t s may be presented i n p l o t t e d o r t a b u l a r form

3 . MODELLING STAGES

A user may t e s t an un l imi ted number of d i f f e r e n t p o l i c i e s

o r scenar ios i n t h e course of a sess ion . However, h i s moves on

each po l i cy o r scenar io vers ion invo lve s i x s t e p s a s fo l lows:

1 . spec i f y reg ion

2 . a d j u s t t h e model t o reg iona l d a t a

3 . spec i f y scenar io

4 . s e t t ime i n t e r v a l ; run t h e model

5 . observe ou tpu t

6 . choose nex t s tage

The sess ion always s t a r t s wi th s t a g e 1 , al though t h e sequence

of s tages a s they may be encountered i n t h e course of t h e

i n t e r a c t i o n i s not n e c e s s a r i l y numerical ( s e e F igure 1 ) . Before d i scuss ing each s t a g e of t h e model l ing sess ion i n

g r e a t e r d e t a i l , we s h a l l make a few t e c h n i c a l remarks:

- i n response t o t h e prompt: ANY ALTERATIONS? (yes = 1 ; no = 2 )

type 1 f o r "yes" , and 2 f o r "no"

- when you spec i f y t h e va lue of a c e r t a i n v a r i a b l e , make c e r t a i n t h a t it i s measured i n t h e u n i t s i n d i c a t e d i n

t h e prompt

- when a l i s t of op t ions i s d isp layed, t h e use r i s expected t o i npu t t h e number

- i n case an i npu t mistake should occur , t h e system w i l l r e p e a t i t s ques t i on and ignore t h e previous i npu t

An example of an interactive session is presented in A ~ ~ e n d i x 3. - ..

start 1 region

specification

model adjustment to regional data

end of session I

scenario specification

v

Figure 1. Session stages.

b model run

t

L output

v choose next stage

3.1 How t o S t a r t t h e Sess ion

To run t h e model t ype SEF on your t e r m i n a l . The s e s s i o n

opens w i t h t h e fo l low ing message:

YOU ARE WELCOME TO THE SYSTEM OF ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING

you w i l l have t o w a i t f o r a few seconds-the t i m e needed t o

i n s t a l l t h e t a s k and i n i t i a l i z e t h e system.

3.2 Spec i f y Region

The s t a g e opens w i t h a heading

SPECIFY REGION

The u s e r w i l l be reques ted t o s p e c i f y t h e e c o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r -

i s t i c s of t h e r e g i o n t h a t he has chosen t o work w i t h . The i n p u t

v a l u e s shou ld be long-term averages r a t h e r t han c u r r e n t param-

eters. I f t h e u s e r i s i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e behav io r of t h e system

under some unusual c i r cumstances he shou ld s p e c i f y a l l t h e

e x t e r n a l d i s t u r b a n c e s a t t h e s t a g e of s c e n a r i o s p e c i f i c a t i o n .

There a r e s e v e r a l ways i n which t h e u s e r may s p e c i f y t h e

reg ion. These a r e l i s t e d i n t h e f i r s t d i s p l a y of t h i s s t a g e :

Modes of s p e c i f i c a t i o n

1. o p t i o n a l

2. au tomat i c

3. s e l e c t s t a n d a r d reg ion

4 . r e t u r n t o p rev ious reg ion

5 . pass on t o n e x t s t a g e

Opt ions 1-4 a r e c l o s e d i n t h e sense t h a t a f t e r t h e u s e r h a s reached

t h e end of any p a t h ( r o o t e d i n t h e s e op t i ons ) t h e system r e t u r n s

t h e i n i t i a l d i s p l a y s o t h a t i f any a l t e r a t i o n s a r e necessa ry

t h e u s e r may go through t h e procedure aga in .

3.2.1 Opt ion 1: Op t i ona l S p e c i f i c a t i o n

The u s e r i s r eques ted t o s p e c i f y d e t a i l e d r e g i o n a l c h a r a c t e r -

i s t i c s by answering t o systems prompts.

The whole procedure is divided into several substages,

each of which ends with a question:

Any alterations? (yes = 1 , no = 2)

If the answer is "yes", the user is offered a chance to

make input corrections within the current portion of the list.

The full list of specifications is as follows:

f 2 - filtration from transit rivers (mm/km ) (water infiltrated

into ground-water horizon (within the boundaries of

major transit rivers)/total area)

- maximum of monthly surface water flow rates/annual rate of surface water flow ( % )

- depth of first ground-water plane (n) - depth of second ground-water plane (m) - depth of first aquiclud-e (m) - depth of second aquiclude (n) - depth of second water-bearing horizon roof - depth of permafrost (m) (in case there is no permafrost,

input 150) 2 - total dissectment (km/km )

2 - dissectment by transit rivers (km/km ) - maximum cut (m) - average cut (m) - X of total area, covered with lakes - average surface slope (tangens) - average width of river valleys - downward infiltration of ground-water ( % ) - infiltration of ground-water, second layer, into rivers ( % ) - ground-water salinity (grams/liter) - deep ground-water salinity (grams/liter)

Any alterations? (yes = 1 , no = 2)

Second substage. The user is expected to specify the biotic

parameters by three types of lands:

Biomass, average ( t o n s p e r h e c t a c r e ) :

1 - l a n d s n o t used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes 2 - l a n d s used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes 3 - wet lands

Mortmass, average ( t o n s p e r h e c t a r e ) :

1 - l a n d s n o t used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes 2 - l a n d s used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes 3 - wet lands S o i l Index

1 - l a n d s n o t used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes 2 - l a n d s used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes 3 - wet lands

The s o i l i ndex i s a measure of s o i l f e r t i l i t y . The lowest

va lue of t h e i ndex i s 0 , t h e h i g h e s t i s 2 0 . Th.e fo l l ow ing approx-

ima te e s t i m a t e s may prove h e l p f u l : podzo ls - 4 ; grey f o r e s t s o i l - 9 ; s i l i c e o u s s o i l s - 9 ; brown, savanna s o i l - 1 2 / 1 5 ; b lack s o i l - 18/19.

S o i l s a l i n i t y ( z ) 1 - l a n d s n o t used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes 2 - l ands used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes

S tep 3 opens w i t h a message:

" ~ t t e n t i o n ! The v a l u e s of t h e s p e c i f i e d paramete rs

shou ld be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e a l t i t u d e of t h e a r e a

i n ques t i on . "

The u s e r i s r e q u e s t e d t o i n p u t average annua l v a l u e s accoun t ing

f o r t h e c l i m a t i c d i f f e r e n c e s i n mountain a r e a s and p l a i n s .

- p r e c i p i t a t i o n (mm) - t empera tu re ( c e n t i g r a d e ) - wind v e l o c i t y (m/sec. ) - d i f f e r e n c e i n t empera tu re f o r v a l l e y s and uplands

( c e n t i g r a d e )

Substage 4 . The u s e r has t o s p e c i f y t h e p r e v a i l i n g t ype

of l i t h o l o g y :

1 - sand 2 - loamy sand 3 - loam 4 - c l a y 5 - mar l 6 - compact sed imentary rocks 7 - i n t r u s i v e and metamorphic rocks 8 - s h i n g l e beds 9 - k a r s t rocks

Th is t e r m i n a t e s t h e o p t i o n a l procedure and t h e system r e t u r n s

t o t he i n i t i a l l i s t . The u s e r r a y e i t h e r pass on t o t h e next

s t a g e o r change t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s .

3 . 2 . 2 Option 2 : Automatic S p e c i f i c a t i o n

Th is mode does n o t r e q u i r e a s much i n p u t in fo rn -a t ion a s t h e

p rev ious one. The u s e r shou ld answer on ly 6 q u e s t i o n s ( i n con-

t r a s t t o 38 i n c a s e of o p t i o n a l mode). A l l t h e necessary d a t a

w i l l be a u t o m a t i c a l l y r e c o n s t r u c t e d by t h e system on t h e b a s i s

of v e r b a l d e s c r i p t i o n . The f i r s t two l i s ts d e a l w i th t h e t y p e s

of geograph ica l b e l t s and p r e v a i l i n g type o f vege ta t i on :

t ype of geograph ica l b e l t :

1 - a r c t i c 2 - temperate 3 - temperate b e l t of c e n t r a l s e c t o r 4 - s u b t r o p i c a l 5 - t r o p i c a l 6 - e q u a t o r i a l i n p u t o p t i o n number -

t ype of vege ta t i on :

1 - a r c t i c l i c h e n tundra 2 - moss - l i c h e n tund ra 3 - low bush tund ra 4 - subtundra i n p u t o p t i o n number -

The conten t of t h e second l i s t depends upon t he response of

the user t o t h e prev ious one. The above l i s t appears i n case of

opt ion 1 of t he f i r s t l i s t ( a r c t i c ) . Option 2 ( temperate b e l t )

would be fol lowed by

type of vegeta t ion :

5 - t a i g a 6 - mixed f o r e s t 7 - broad l e a f f o r e s t 8 - meadow steppe 9 - steppe

1 0 - dry s teppe 1 1 - subdeser t 1 2 - d e s e r t

Option 3 ( c e n t r a l p a r t of temperate b e l t ) would be fol lowed by

tvDe of veueta t ion :

13 - t a i g a 1 4 - southern t a i g a 15 - mixed f o r e s t 1 6 - steppe 17 - dry s teppe 18 - subdeser t

Option 4 ( sub t r op i ca l ) l eads t o

type of vegeta t ion :

1 9 - sub t rop i ca l d e s e r t 20 - sub t rop i ca l s teppe 2 1 - sub t rop i ca l p r a i r i e 2 2 - sub t rop ica l sc le rophy l lous f o r e s t 23 - sc le rophy l lous f o r e s t , sparse growth o f t r e e s 2 4 - sub t rop i ca l monsoon f o r e s t

Option 5 ( t r o p i c a l ) - type of vegeta t ion :

25 - t r o p i c a l subdeser t 26 - t r o p i c a l d e s e r t 2 7 - t r o p i c a l savanna

28 - t r o p i c a l monsoon f o r e s t 29 - t r o p i c a l f o r e s t

and f i n a l l y , o p t i o n 6 ( e q u a t o r i a l ) - t ype o f v e g e t a t i o n :

30 - s u b e q u a t o r i a l savanna 31 - s u b e q u a t o r i a l monsoon f o r e s t 32 - e q u a t o r i a l f o r e s t

The second l i s t t e r m i n a t e s t h i s sequence and t h e u s e r i s r eques ted

t o s p e c i f y t h e t ype of topology:

t ype of topo logy:

1 - low l and 2 - p l a i n s 3 - upland 4 - low mountains 5 - p l a t e a u 6 - mountains, medium h e i g h t 7 - t ab le - l and

The nex t l i s t c o n t a i n s d i f f e r e n t t y p e s of l i t h o l o g y and i s equiva-

l e n t t o t h e r e l e v a n t l i s t of t h e o p t i o n a l mode:

t ype o f l i t h o l o g y :

1 - sand 2 - loamy sand 3 - loam 4 - c l a y 5 - mar l 6 - compact sed imentary rocks 7 - i n t r u s i v e and metamorphic rocks 8 - s h i n g l e beds 9 - k a r s t rocks

The fo l low ing l i s t c o n t a i n s va r i ous i n t e n s i t i e s of marsh iness

f o r d i f f e r e n t t ypes of hyd ro log i ca l l and s t r u c t u r e . High l e v e l o f

marsh iness o f t y p i c a l f o r aquiclud-e - 0.5-2 n e t e r s deep; medium f o r 2.5-3.5 meters deep; low f o r 3.5-5 meters deep.

The d i s p l a y i s :

marsh iness r e s u l t i n g from sha l low aqu i c l ude :

1 - i s a b s e n t 2 - s t r o n g 3 - medium 4 - weak

Th is t e r m i n a t e s t h e au tomat i c s p e c i f i c a t i o n mode.

3.2.3 Opt ion 3: S e l e c t S tandard Region

NO a d d i t i o n a l i n f o rma t i on i s r e q u i r e d o f t h e u s e r who has

chosen t o work w i th a s t a n d a r d reg ion . The s p e c i f i c a t i o n of t h e

r e g i o n i n t h i s c a s e i s a s f o l l ows :

t ype o f geog raph i ca l b e l t - 2 - t empera te t ype of v e g e t a t i o n - 7 - broad l e a f f o r e s t t y p e of r e l i e f - 2 - p l a i n s t y p e o f l i t h o l o g y - 2 - loamy sand marsh iness - 1 - i s a b s e n t f i l t r a t i o n from t r a n s i t r i v e r s - 0 - i s a b s e n t

Having e n t e r e d t h i s i n f o rma t i on i n t h e system d i s p l a y s t h e p re -

v i ous ( i n i t i a l ) l i s t o f o p t i o n s and prompts t h e u s e r t o con t i nue

t h e i n t e r a c t i o n .

3.2.4 Opt ion 4 : Return t o Prev ious Region

I n c a s e t h e u s e r has chosen t o work w i t h t h e p rev ious

r e g i o n t h e sys tem r e s t o r e s t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n of t h e r e g i o n a s

i t was immediate ly a f t e r t h e l a s t r eg ion s p e c i f i c a t i o n p rocedure .

Th i s mode o f s p e c i f i c a t i o n , however, may be chosen on ly i n c a s e

t h e p rev ious reg ion was a c t u a l l y s p e c i f i e d by t h e u s e r .

3.2.5 Opt ion 5: Pass on t o Next S tage

I n response t o o p t i o n 5 t h e s c r e e n d i s p l a y s t h e f o l l ow ing

message :

INPUT COPIPLETED

THE MODEL IS B E I N G ADJUSTED TO REGIONAL DATA

This i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n of t h e r e g i o n i s completed

and t h e c o n t r o l was t r a n s m i t t e d t o t h e n e x t s t a g e - model a d j u s t - ment t o r e g i o n a l d a t a , which i s performed a u t o ~ a t i c a l l y .

3 . 3 Model Adjustment

Model ad jus tment does n o t r e q u i r e t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f t h e

u s e r . Once t h e procedure i s ove r , t h e s c r e e n d i s p l a y s t h e fo l low-

i n g message:

MODEL ADJUSTMENT COMPLETED

Inpu t p r o p o r t i o n of l ands used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes ( % ) -

and w a i t s f o r an answer. Having rece i ve? i t , t h e s y s t e r passes

c o n t r o l t o t h e n e x t s t a g e . I f t h e answer i s i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h

t h e p rev ious l y de f i ned c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , t h e s e s s i o n i s t e r ~ ~ i n a t e d .

To change t h e answer t h e u s e r w i l l have t o i n i t i a t e t h e model

once aga in .

3 . 4 Spec i f y Scena r i o

Th is s t a g e s t a r t s w i t h a prompt:

SPECIFY SCENARIO

0 - con t i nue 1 - r e t u r n t o p rev ious s c e n a r i o 2 - show system s t a t e 3 - tempera tu re t r e n d 4 - p r e c i p i t a t i o n t r e n d 5 - p o l l u t i o n and f e r t i l i z a t i o n r a t e s 6 - i r r i g a t i o n regime 7 - d ra inage i n t e n s i t y 8 - f i r e s on l a n d s n o t used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes 9 - a r t i f i c i a l d e s t r u c t i o n o f biorrass

10 - i n c r e a s e o r decrease o f l ands used f o r a q r i c u l t u r a l purposes

1 1 - new p l a n t a t i o n s on lands no t used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes

1 2 - new s h e l t e r b e l t s on lands used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes

13 - changes i n t h e amount of wood caused by lumbering

I t i s assumed t h a t t h e po l i cy /scenar io op t i ons w i l l remain

unchanged over t h e nex t s imu la t ion per iod . Any po l i cy change

may be in t roduced on ly a f t e r t h i s per iod i s over . A user may

de f i ne a s many success ive p o l i c i e s of r e g i o n a l development a s

he wishes, provided t h a t he does n o t su rpass t h e upper l i m i t

of t o t a l s imu la t ion t ime, which i s 200 years .

I t should be noted t h a t t h e model does no t extend t h e

e f f e c t s of prev ious p o l i c y dec i s ions t o t h e success ive per iods

so t h a t i n case t h e use r wishes t o t r a c e them, he should formulate

h i s po l i cy op t i ons r e s p e c t i v e l y .

We s h a l l i l l u s t r a t e t h e procedure of scenar io formulat ion

wi th t h e fo l lowing example, devoted t o t h e evo lu t i on of a f o r e s t

over t he per iod of 25 y e a r s , assuming t h a t 10 years a f t e r t h e

beginning of t h i s per iod t h e r e i s a f o r e s t f i r e .

Having de f ined t h e reg ion we go on t o spec i f y t h e scenar io ,

t h a t inc ludes a s e t of po l i cy v a r i a b l e s and changes due t o

n a t u r a l causes. The f i r s t t ime per iod w i l l be 9 years . A f te r t h e run i s over we s h a l l r e f o r m l a t e t h e scenar io t o inc lude the

e f f e c t of a f o r e s t f i r e . The second t ime per iod would l a s t on ly

1 year s i n c e f o r e s t f i r e s do no t usua l l y happen 2 years i n a row.

Then we s h a l l have t h e scenar io aga in , leav ing o u t t h e f o r e s t

f i r e op t ion t o t r a c e t h e e f f e c t s of t h e i n i t i a l po l i cy dec i s ions

over t h e fo l lowing 15 yea rs .

The i n t e r a c t i v e procedure a t t h e s t a g e of scenar io spec i -

f i c a t i o n i s very s i m i l a r t o t h a t of reg ion s p e c i f i c a t i o n . The

system prompts t h e u s e r wi th a l i s t of 1 4 op t ions , of which a l l

b u t t h e zero op t i on a r e c losed .

I t should be noted t h a t op t i on 13 r e f e r s only t o f o r e s t

a r e a s .

3.4.1 Option 0 : Continue Modeling

I f t h e u s e r has s p e c i f i e d op t ion 0 , t h e system responds with

s e t t ime i n t e r v a l (max number of years - * ) which i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e c o n t r o l passes t o t h e next ( f o u r t h )

s tage . The scenar io , which was s e l e c t e d a t s tage 3 i s s t o r e d

i n a f i l e f o r p o s s i b l e f u t u r e uses.

3.4.2 Option 1 : Return t o Previous Scenar io

This op t ion t e l l s t h e system t o r e s t o r e t h e prev ious

scenar io . While it does so , t h e sc reen d i s p l a y s t h e l i s t of

s c e n a r i o op t i ons and t h e answer of t h e use r . A s soon a s t h e

prev ious scenar io i s r e s t o r e d , t h e system w i l l d i s p l a y t h e l i s t

anew, prompting t h e use r t o i n d i c a t e h i s op t ion . This procedure

enab les t h e use r t o formulate new scenar ios by a l t e r i n g t h e

prev ious ones.

3.4.3 Option 2 : Show Systems S t a t e

I n response t o op t ion 2 t h e system d i s p l a y s a t a b l e , which

inc ludes t h e c u r r e n t va lue of a l l t h e major v a r i a b l e s , r e f e r r i n g

t o t h e 3 types of l ands , water , and c l ima te . The u n i t s of t h e

v a r i a b l e s a r e i n d i c a t e d i n t h e b racke ts :

SYSTEM STATE

L L; P.liT t : T= ; c . L l c / o / L.= Z c o . t l / n r / ------------------------------------- ! ! L A K E S ( 7 : ) = 0.00 L G h L T Y P E ! L C ! &l;F.ICLL. !\..ETLAI,,CS. ! !

2V c : " ) ! 1 4 ! 1'. I ;.;z5C ! ! ------------------ i i F V ! 1 5 i . c 9 ! L C . ! l u 7 . 2 7 ! ! F l c t u p a r a m e t e r s : C L V I i . 7 ~ ~ I L. I 1. ;~ : ! ! FL (nnr) = 1 9 9 . 9 7 5 CPLL ! I . C C L C L ! l . c C : ~ L c ! l . i C C O L ! ! C F k V ( 1 ) = 4 c . 0 0 ~ S P k V ( m c > ! 2 . 1 5 1 5 ! C . 1 4 1 1 ! L . C I ~ ! ! L F W V ( 2 1 = 3 7 . 6 7 ~ I ! O.LLCL ! I .IL"L ! c.C553 ! ! CF1,V ( 3 ) ( 7 ; ) = 1 3 . 3 1 8 F i L ! L' . ! C. ! C . C ; C C I ! ! F1 :.: C V ( 91 ) = 1 5 . 5 4 7 h V I 1 ! L ! 1 ! ! HG1i ( ;n> = 7 .398

I 2 ( x f i / t - , > ! 1 4 . 7 ~ ! C . S . i l ! ! HP1 ( T I = 2rJ .C lGO G r l ( r n / n > ! C. I c . I C . ! ! 4 G L J C (r;) = 4 1 . 3 9 2

. , 3'); ( ~ n / h > ! ~ i . & ~ l t ! C . I C.ic: ! ! ( G I = 5 1 . h O G S i T V , ! I ! ' _ . 1 7 4 L ! C,.,7c5 ! ! F F F ( n l =15ij.COG 5 V ! 1 o . L 7 7 ! c .711 ! 4 . ? C Z ! ! h E X ( a ) = 53.00C. --------------------------------------- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ! !

- - , - ~ P . ( I ; m / l \ n ~ c ) = i . 2 7 0 ~ 21°F ( ~ r ( 1 lkm;>= 1. L~~ 5 - ZLSV(./;;= L.L;7c :\..I V ( c , / l ) = C . 3 7 7 1 S l . Z v ( ~ / l ) = 1 . 3 6 1 1

So ;o " ~ a r , t :c s a v e t b , e p r r ~ n ~ e t e r s c t s y s t ~ f i s : a t e ? ( y e s = l / n c = ; ) -

Do you want t o save SYSTEMS STATE? (yes = 1 , no = 2 )

A l i s t of f u l l names of t h e v a r i a b l e s i s i n Appendix 1 .

I n c a s e a u s e r wants t o save t h e parameters of t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e

o f t h e system, t h e system w i l l s t o r e them i n t h e " s t a t e . d M f i l e .

A f t e r t h e system has rece i ved t h e answer, t h e . l i s t o f s c e n a r i o

o p t i o n s w i l l be d i sp layed .

3.4.4 Opt ion 3: Temperature Trend

The system d i s p l a y s t h e fo l low ing prompt:

Rate o f tempera tu re change ( i n degrees c e n t i g r a d e pe r y e a r )

The use r i s expected t o i n p u t t h e annual r a t e o r tempera tu re

change w i t h i n a reg ion . The tempera tu re t r e n d s , s p e c i f i e d by

t h e u s e r w i l l main ta in over t h e p rev ious l y s p e c i f i e d pe r i od .

3 .4 .5 Option 4 : P r e c i p i t a t i o n Trend

The system d i s p l a y s t h e fo l low ing phrase :

Rate o f p r e c i p i t a t i o n change (mm/year)

The u s e r shou ld i n p u t t h e annual r a t e of p r e c i p i t a t i o n change

t h a t w i l l main ta in ove r t h e p rev ious l y s p e c i f i e d t i m e pe r i od .

3.4.6 Opt ion 5: P o l l u t i o n and F e r t i l i z a t i o n Rates

The system d i s p l a y s t h e fo l low ing l is t :

POLLUTION AND FERTILIZATION

P o l l u t a n t s ( t o n s p e r h e c t a r e ) :

1 - sox 2 - NOx 3 - CxHy 4 - Pb 5 - Hg 6 - Cd 7 - n i t r o g e n f e r t i l i z e r s 8 - phosphorous f e r t i l i z e r s

9 - muck 10 - e x i t

I n p u t o p t i o n number -

Opt ions 1-9 w i l l r e t u r n t h e system t o t h e same l i s t . To

r e t u r n t o t h e l i s t of s c e n a r i o o p t i o n s i n d i c a t e o p t i o n 10. I f

any number from t h e range 1-6 was chosen, t h e u s e r w i l l have t o

s p e c i f y t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e r e l e v a n t p o l l u t a n t between d i f -

f e r e n t t y p e s o f environment by answering t o prompts:

- o n l a n d s n o t used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes

- o n l a n d s used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes

- a i r p o l l u t i o n

- w a t e r p o l l u t i o n

Opt ions 7 and 8 of t h e p rev ious l i s t w i l l r e q u i r e answers on ly

t o t h e f i r s t two q u e s t i o n s o f t h e above l i s t ; o p t i o n 9 w i l l

r e q u i r e answer ing prompts 1 , 2 , and 4 .

Having s p e c i f i e d t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n of p o l l u t a n t s and f e r -

t i l i z e r s t h e u s e r shou ld i n d i c a t e o p t i o n 10. Th is i s fo l lowed

by ano the r prompt:

Thermal p o l l u t i o n ( i n degrees c e n t i g r a d e )

Thermal p o l l u t i o n , a s it i s assumed h e r e , i s t h e annual increment

of average annual tempera tu re due t o thermal was tes . Th i s va lue

h a s t o be i n d i c a t e d on ly once. I f t h e use r chooses t o a l t e r

t h e r a t e of thermal p o l l u t i o n , he shou ld i n d i c a t e t h e a n t i c i p a t e d

d e v i a t i o n of t h e p rev ious l y de f i ned t r e n d .

3.4.7 Opt ion 6: I r r i g a t i o n Regime

The u s e r i s r eques ted t o s p e c i f y t h e sou rces and t h e i n t e n s i t y

o f wa te r ing i n t h e reg ion

sou rces o f wa te r used f o r i r r i a a t i o n DurDoses:

-ground-water (mm)

-deep ground-water (mm)

- a r t e s i a n wate r (mm)

- r i v e r s and l a k e s (mm)

- t r a n s i t r i v e r s (mm)

Water de lay on l ands used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes:

1 - s i g n i f i c a n t 2 - moderate 3 - i s absen t

Inpu t op t i on number -

The u s e r i s expected t o s p e c i f y water de lay on ly once a t

t h e beginning of t h e s e s s i o n . I f l a t e r he chooses t o cons ider

any changes i n t h e water de lay , he should s p e c i f y t h e d e v i a t i o n

from t h e p rev ious value.

3.4.8 Option 7: Drainage I n t e n s i t y

The fo l lowing t e x t i s d isp layed

Drainaae :

1 - i n t e n s i v e 2 - moderate 3 - i n s i g n i f i c a n t 4 - i s absen t

Inpu t op t i on number - I nc rease of a r e a covered w i th l a k e s i n r e s u l t o f hydro techn ica l works -

3.4.9 Option 8: F i r e s on Lands Not Used f o r A g r i c u l t u r a l Purposes

The system w i l l r e q u e s t t h e use r t o s p e c i f y t h e damage done

by f i r e s by d i s p l a y i n g t h e fo l lowing prompt:

Damage done by f i r e s :

1 - s i g n i f i c a n t 2 - medium 3 - smal l

I npu t op t i on number -

I t should be kep t i n mind t h a t i f f o r e s t f i r e s a r e inc luded

i n t h e s c e n a r i o , t h e system au tomat i ca l l y runs t h e model over a

1-year per iod and passes t h e c o n t r o l t o t h e f i f t h s t a g e .

3.4 . 10 Op t ion 9 : A r t i f i c i a l d e s t r u c t i o n o f b iomass

The d i s p l a y is :

D e s t r u c t i c n o f b iomass by v e h i c l e compact ion - P a s t u r a g e i s

0 - a b s e n t 1 - weak 2 - modera te 3 - i n t e n s i v e 4 - v e r y i n t e n s i v e I n p u t o p t i o n number -

3.4.11 Op t ion 10: I n c r e a s e o r d e c r e a s e o f t h e Arount o f Lands Used f o r A g r i c u l t u r a l Purposes

The u s e r i s r e q u e s t e d t o s p e c i f y t h e a n n u a l i n c r e a s e o r

d e c r e a s e o f t h e a r e a o f a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d s a s % o f t h e p r e v i o u s

y e a r , t o t a l :

Change i n t h e amount o f l a n d s used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p u r p o s e s

d e c r e a s e -

3.4.12 Opt ion 1 1 : New P l a n t a t i o n s on Lands Not Used f o r A g r i c u l t u r a l Pu rposes

The d i s p l a y i s :

New p l a n t a t i o n s on l a n d s n o t used f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p u r p o s e s , % o f t o t a l a r e a -

3.4 .13 Opt ion 12: N e w S h e l t e r B e l t s

A s w a s a l r e a d y men t ioned , t h i s o p t i o n r e l a t e s o n l y t o t h e

r e g i o n s where f o r e s t s occupy a s i g n i f i c a n t p a r t o f t h e a r e a .

The u s e r i s r e q u e s t e d t o answer t o t h e f o l l o w i n g prompt:

New s h e l t e r b e l t s ( % o f t o t a l a r e a ) -

3.5 S e t Time I n t e r v a l ; Run t h e Model

This s t a g e opens w i th t h e fo l lowing reques t :

S e t t ime i n t e r v a l (maximum number of yea rs - * ) - where t h e a s t e r i s k s tands f o r t h e number of yea rs l e f t be fo re

t h e s imu la t ion t ime e x p i r e s . The t o t a l l eng th of s imu la t ion

per iod should n o t exceed 200 years .

A f te r t h e system has rece ived an answer it d i s p l a y s t h e

fo l lowing message:

Model run

When t h e run i s over , t h e system passes on t o t h e next s t a g e .

3.6 Output Modes

The f i f t h s t a g e opens wi th a l i s t of ou tpu t modes:

Output modes:

1 - s tandard ou tpu t 2 - o p t i o n a l ou tpu t 3 - cont inue

(However, i f t h e t o t a l number of yea rs t h a t have passed s i n c e

t h e beginning of t h e s imu la t ion per iod i s l e s s than 5 , t h i s

s t a g e i s skipped and t h e c o n t r o l au tomat ica l l y passes t o t h e

next s t a g e . )

3.6.1 Standard Output

Option 1 i s fo l lowed by t h e d i s p l a y of s e t s of t h e major

v a r i a b l e s , inc luded i n t h e model.

The f i r s t l i s t i s a s fo l lows:

B i o t i c parameters:

1 - s o i l - vege ta t i on 2 - s o i l p r o d u c t i v i t y - s o i l index - danpness 3 - s o i l - f e r t i l i z e r s

Water ~arameters:

4 - total flow 5 - surface dissectment 6 - ground-water flow 7 - deep ground-water flow Salinity parameters:

8 - soil - ground-water 9 - ground-waters - river waters

10 - pollution parameters

Input option number-

If option 10 were chosen, then the second list would be displayed,

PCLLLTIC!: PAEAFIETCES/BY TYPE OF EPIVI;,C!,~,,E~JTAL CCI.!PCr.tfiT L PCLLLTAPJT

P o l l b t l o n o f 1 - p l ~ , n ~ s / b l t h t o x l c m e t c i s L - s o 1 1 1 kith toxic m e t a l s - 2 - s i r 4 - s ~ r f t c e ~ a t e r S / ~ i t P , K e t G i s 5 - s u r f ~ ~ c e h a t e r s / ~ l t h P , y c r o c ~ , r b c n s /

n l t r o , o n ~ n o p h c s b h c r ~ s G - h r c ~ r i c - ~ t t e r s ~ L l t h m e t z l s 7 - ~ r o ~ n o - ~ a t e r s / ~ l t h P , ; c r o c a r ~ c n s / r ~ ~ t r o ~ ~ n s n u p k 8 0 s p h c r u s 5 - U E G ~ ~ r c u n o - ~ c ~ t e r s / w l ? h metz.:s 9 - a e e ~ ~ r c u c c l - ~ , t e r s / ~ l t h h y c ~ r c c z r b o n s / n l t r o ~ ~ n a n d p h c s p h o r ~ s

Option 10 of the second list indicates return to the previous

list. Options 1 and 3 of the first list and 1-2 of the second

require additional information, which is prompted by the following

display:

Type of land:

1 - lands not used for agricultural purposes 2 - lands used for agricultural purposes 3 - wetlands

A f t e r t h e system has rece ived t h e r e q u i r e d i n fo rma t i on , a

l i s t of o u t p u t forms i s d i sp layed . I t should be no ted t h a t

o p t i o n s 2 and 4-9 from t h e f i r s t l i s t do n o t r e q u i r e any add i -

t i o n a l i n fo rma t i on on t h e type of s c a l i n g f o r p l o t t e d o u t p u t .

3 .6 .2 Opt iona l Output

Opt ion 2 i m p l i e s t h a t t h e u s e r shou ld s p e c i f y t h e numbers

of t h e o u t p u t v a r i a b l e s on h i s t e rm ina l . The prompt i s

I npu t v a r i a b l e number - The l i s t of v a r i a b l e s i s i nc luded i n Appendix 2 . The prompt i s

r epea ted f o u r t i m e s , s i n c e . t h e number of ou tpu t v a r i a b l e s cannot

exceed 4 . I n c a s e t h e number i s less t han 4 , t h e u s e r should

i n p u t 0 t o i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e l i s t i s exhausted. A f t e r t h i s

t h e system w i l l d i s p l a y a l i s t of o u t p u t forms.

3 . 7 Output Forms

A t t h i s s t a g e t h e u s e r i s reques ted t o s p e c i f y t h e form

of o u t p u t f o r t h e s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s . The d i s p l a y i s :

Output forms :

1 - t a b u l a r 2 - p l o t t e d

I npu t o p t i o n number -

Opt ion 1 i s fo l lowed by a t a b l e of o u t p u t va lues . An example

of such a t a b l e can be found i n Appendix 3 . I n c a s e t h e u s e r

s p e c i f i e d o p t i o n 2 , h e w i l l be reques ted t o s p e c i f y t h e t ype of

s c a l i n g procedure. The d i s p l a y i s :

S c a l i n g modes:

1 - automat i c , s i n g l e s c a l e f o r a l l v a r i a b l e s 2 - automat i c , s e p a r a t e s c a l e f o r eve ry v a r i a b l e 3 - manual, s i n g l e s c a l e f o r a l l v a r i a b l e s 4 - manual, s e p a r a t e s c a l e f o r every v a r i a b l e

I npu t o p t i o n number -

Option 1 : The system initializes a procedure f o r de f i n ing the minimum ( Y min) and t h e maximum ( Y max) va lues among a l l t h e

va lues of t h e ou tpu t v a r i a b l e s ( t h i s may be done on ly i n case

t h e ou tpu t v a r i a b l e s a r e measured i n t h e same u n i t s ) . These

va lues then se rve a s t h e upper and t h e lower boundary of t h e

p l o t t e d ou tpu t a long t h e Y a x i s .

i Option 2 : The system de f i nes t h e minimum (y min) and i t h e maximum (y nax) va lues f o r each o f t h e ou tpu t v a r i a b l e s

(where i i s t h e index of t h e ou tpu t v a r i a b l e ) . A l l t h e ou tpu t

curves a r e then sca led s e p a r a t e l y t o f i t i n t o t h e same box.

Option 3 : The minimum ( Y min) and t h e maximum ( Y max)

among a l l t h e va lues of t h e o u t p u t v a r i a b l e a r e s p e c i f i e d by t h e

use r i n response t o a prompt

Marginal va lues of v a r i a b l e s

I n case some va lues of an output v a r i a b l e exceed ( o r a r e l e s s

than) t h e upper ( o r lower) l i m i t de f ined by the u s e r , t h e system

c u t s o f f t h e p ro t rud ing p a r t o f ' t h e curve t o make it f i t i n t o t h e

box.

i Option 4 : The user i s requested t o spec i f y t h e Y min and

Yi max va lues f o r each of t h e ou tpu t v a r i a b l e s (i = index of t h e

ou tpu t v a r i a b l e ) by answering t o a sequence of prompts

M I N of 1

MAX of 1

M I N of 2

MAX of 2

M I N of 3

MAX of 3

M I N of 4

MAX of 4

v a r i a b l e - v a r i a b l e - v a r i a b l e s - v a r i a b l e s - v a r i a b l e s - v a r i a b l e s - v a r i a b l e s - v a r i a b l e s -

I n case t h e va lues of any v a r i a b l e should exceed t h e spec i -

f i e d l i m i t s , t h e p ro t rud ing p a r t of t h e curve i s c u t o f f i n

t h e same way a s i n op t ion 3 above.

I n c a s e t h e va lues of any v a r i a b l e shou ld exceed t h e

s p e c i f i e d l i m i t s , t h e p r o t r u d i n g p a r t o f t h e cu rve i s c u t o f f

i n t h e same way a s i n o p t i o n 3 above.

3 .8 Choose Next S tage

When t h e u s e r h a s reached t h i s l a s t s t a g e he i s o f f e r e d

t h e fo l l ow ing l i s t o f o p t i o n s t o choose from:

Sess ion c o n t i n u a t i o n o p t i o n s :

0 - t e r m i n a t e s e s s i o n 1 - d e f i n e r e g i o n 2 - d e f i n e s c e n a r i o 3 - con t i nue mode l l i ng 4 - o u t p u t r e s u l t s 5 - show c u r r e n t s y s t e n s t a t e

I n p u t o p t i o n number - Opt ion 0 t e r m i n a t e s t h e s e s s i o n . T h e r e s u l t s , i . e . ,

pa ramete rs of t h e sys tems s t a t e , t a b l e s and/or p l o t s , w i l l be

s t o r e d i n f i l e s " s t a t e . d W , " f i g u r e . d W , t a b l e . d W , r e s p e c t i v e l y .

Opt ions 1-4 t r a n s f e r c o n t r o l t o t h e c u r r e n t s t a g e o f t h e

s i m u l a t i o n p rocedure . I n c a s e o p t i o n 5 i s s p e c i f i e d , t h e

system w i l l d i s p l a y paramete rs o f c u r r e n t sys tems s t a t e .

REFERENCES

Kroutko, V . N . , S.A. Pegov, and B.M. Khomyakov (1982a) The E v a l u a t i o n o f t h e Q u a l i t y o f Environmental Components. P r e p r i n t . Moscow: The All-Union I n s t i t u t e f o r Systems S t u d i e s ( V N I I S I ) ( i n Russ ian ) .

Kroutko, V . N . , S.A. Pegov, and B.M. Khomyakov (1982b) A Dynamic Model o f Environmental Development. P r e p r i n t . Moscow: The All-Union I n s t i t u t e f o r Systems S t u d i e s ( W I I S I ) .

APPENDIX 1

T h e t i e s c r i c t i o n o f v ~ ~ r i s b l ~ s u s e s t h e f o l l o t u i n g n o t a t i o n 1 . T h e ~ r t l t s o f n e z ~ s u r e r n e n t a r e l n c i i c a t e u l n b r z c k e t s a f t e r

t h e f ~ l l n z m E o f he v t r l a k l e . 2. I n d e x ' i ' a G p e a r i n s i n t h 2 n a m e o f c e r t ~ ~ i n v z r i a b l e s

s h o u i a b e l n t e r ~ r e t e c a s f o l l o c s : i = l - l a n c r s n o t ~ s e d f c r t ; ~ r l c c r l t u r t l ~ ; u r p o s e s i i = 2 - l a n o s u s e d f c r a g r l c ~ l t u r s l ~ u r p o s e s ; i = j - L e t l z n ~ s . . ' 3. Z n d e x i n o r c s t e s different k l n c s o f ~ o l l ~ t s n t s a n d

f e r t l l i s e r s : ;=I - s ~ l f u r c o m p o s i t i o n s ; - j = ~ - n i t r o s e n c o o y o s l t l c ~ n s ; j = 3 - h y o r o c z r b o n s , ;=4 - c o m y o s l t i o n s c f Pb; ;=5 - c o m ~ o s l t i o n s o f kc,; ;=o - c o r i ~ o s l t ~ o n s o f C d , j = 7 - n i t r o b e n f e r t l l l z e r s ; j = i 3 - f i h c s p h c r ~ s f e r t i l i z e r s ; ; = 9 - c r g a n l c f e r t i l i i e r s ; j = I C : l : - r e s e r v e o i n u e x e r . E l o t l c p a r a m e t e r s . -------------------

6 (1) - k i o n ~ s s ( t o r s p e r k e c t s r e l . b M ( i 1 - c e a c , b l o r n z s s ( t o n s ~ e r h e c t z r c ) . C L V ( 1 ) - c l i n ; a t e i n ~ e x .

-, . C P B L ( 1 1 - c ~ - i ~ t ; o n ~ n c a x . 12 ( i ) - p r o b o r t ; c n o f t k e 1 - t h t y b e c f l ~ , r , a s l n t k e t c t a l a r e s

( l c l k ~ s r , o t ~ r , c ? ~ c ! e c i I ( 2 1 . G V ( 1 1 - p r c c ~ r t i c n c f t t - e 1-ti- t y p e c f i a n u s ~ n t k e t c t a l z , r e a

( i e t k e c ~ n c i ~ c ~ c . 1 ( > , I .

-27-

L k k V ( i 1 - ~ i r ~ d e r c s i o r , r s t e ( m ~ / y e z ; r l . F I S ( 1 l - i n c r e m e n t o f s c l l q ~ a l i t y l n c a e x u c e t o f s r t l l l s a t i o n . G H ( 1 l - s c l l ~ r c c i b c t i v i t y ( t o n s p e r h e c t a r e ) . t i F F ( 1 l - h ~ m i d i t b . H F V ( 1 1 - h ~ r n i c ~ t y i c r 1 - t h t y ~ e c f l a n c s . K V - v e ~ e t a t l o n t y k e :

K V = 1 - , r c , s s ; K V = ~ - f o r e s t - s t e p p e ; K V = 3 - f o r e s t ; K V = 4 - m o s s - l i c h e n .

S L T V ( i 1 - s o i i s s l i n i t y ( 2 1 . S P k V ( i ) - r a t e o f s u r f z c e e r r o s i o n b y t y p e c f l a n a ( r n r / y e ~ r l .

. - S V ( i ) - S c l r i n d e x .

L r a i n a ~ e p a r a m e t e r s . ....................

C F W V ( 1 l - p r c p o r t l o n c f s b r f c c a c i r a l n a g e i n t o t z l a r s i n a s e (::la C F W V ( 2 ) - G r c p o r t i o n o f d r a i n a g e f r o m u p p e r ~ r c u n d l z y e r i n

t c t a l c r a i n s s e ( 2 1 . C F W V ( 3 ) - b r c p o r t i o n c f a r a l n a ~ e f r c n i l o ~ e r s r o u n d l a y e r i n

t o t a l c r ~ i r , s ~ e ( ; : I . G Pi - t o t s 1 c l s s e c t n e n t ( k m / k m ? ) . U k R - ~ l s s e c t m e n t ~ l t h r l v e r s ( I < m / k n Z l . F L - t o t a l c r a i n z g e r z t e ( r n m / y e s r ) . F L 1 - s u r f z c e a r a i n a y e r a t e ( m r n / y e a r l . F L 2 - r t t s o f c r a i n a ~ e f r c n i u p ~ e r s r c b n c i l ~ y e r ( r n r n / y e a r l . F L 3 - r ~ t ~ o f d r s l n a g e i r c n l o w e r ~ r c c n c i l a y e r ( r n m / y e a r l . F L ~ + F L ; - s u n o f F L 1 a n d F L Z ( ; n r n / y e s r ) . F L 1 2 + F L 3 - s L m o f F L 1 , F L Z 2 n d F L 3 ( n i r n i y e s r ) . H E X - m z x i n i b n i c u t (m!. H G W - c e ~ t h o f ; - s t G r o u n d ~ a t ? r p l ~ n e (m). HGkG - c , e b t h c f 2 - n c s r o ~ n c ~ a t s r p l s n e (m). H P I - d e p t h ~ f 1-s t E ~ ~ L ~ C ~ L ~ G C ' u i t k t h e i n f l ~ s n c e o f p ~ r m a -

f r o s t (rnl. HPF - c e ~ t h c f G e r c i z i f r o s t p l a n e ( n l . H k P - c e b t h o f 1-s t a q ~ l c l ~ a c ( r n : . HkPD - d e p t h o f 2 - n d a q b i c l u c e ( ~ l . R M D V - e f f c - c t l v e s u r f z c c - c r n i n a , e (::I. SWlV - w a t ~ r s a l i n i t y , 1 - s t g r o ~ n u - c a t e r ~ l z r ~ e ( s / l l . S h 2 V - l uz ter s z , l i n i t y , 2.-nd s r o u n u - ~ z , t e r y i ~ . n e ( 5 4 1 1 . RCSV - r i v e r ~ a t e r 5 , l i n i t y ( ~ / 1 ? .

P a r s r n e t s r s o f k o l l u t a n t s s n c f e r t l l l z e r s ( t o n s p e r t ; e c t z . r e ) . ...........................................................

APPENDIX 2

SEF GLTPLT V A L I A Z L E I:LC:EERS

2 G1.R 5 L ( 3 1 & CFh'V(2)

11 L P C L ( 3 1 1 4 C h ( 2 ) 1 7 hLLlI. L C h F F ( 1 1 23 ECSV ;CJ S L T V ( 1 ) 2 9 S ' . ' ( 1 ) 3 2 P ~ k ( 1 ) 35 P L A ( 4 1 3a P L L ( ~ ) 4 1 P L A ( 1 L ) 4 4 P L G ( 1 2 ) 4 7 P L C d ( 1 1 Z C P L L N ( L * ) 5 3 P L 3 r ; ( 7 1 5 6 P L E W ( ~ C I 5 9 P L C h ( 1 2 1 t; PLCI.:(11 t 5 PLGLb(4) GE: PLSv. (7) 7 1 F L G k ( 1 C ) 7 4 P L G k ( 1 3 ) 7 7 P L P ( l / l > LC P L P ( 4 / 1 1 L 3 P L P ( ? / I > L C P L P ( l L / l I

3 t ( l 1 c CFI ,~V(1 1 9 CPLlL(11

1 2 FL I f G H ( 3 ) I ? HhP 2 1 H F F ( 2 ) 2 4 S I~ r l v 2 7 S L T V ( 2 ) 3C S V ( 2 ) 3 3 ~ ~ a ( 2 1 It P L A ( ~ ) 3 9 P L A ( 8 ) 4 2 P L A ( 1 1 1 4 5 P L A ( 1 4 ) r S PLCIJ(Z1 5 1 P L L k ( 5 1 5 s FL2k ' cE) 5 7 PLCi-l (1 1 ) oC1 ?LC11(14) t 3 PLrJI.i ( 2 t c PLGL., ( 5 ) cS) FLGI..(S) 7 2 P ~ s 1 . ( 1 1 1 75 PL31.d (I 4 1 7: P L P ( 2 / 1 1 5 1 P L P ( S / I I :4 F L P ( 8 / 1 1 2 7 P L ~ ( l l / l 1

C 9 P L P ( 1 3 / 1 1 S i P L P ( 1 / 2 1 9 5 F L P ( C / Z I 5 8 P L P ( 7 , L I

1 L 1 P L P ( l C / L I 1 L S P L ? ( 1 3 / 2 1 1 L 7 P L F ( l / Z I 1 1 C P L P ( 4 / 3 1 1 1 3 P L P ( 7 / 3 1 1 1 6 P L P ( l L / J ) 1 1 9 P L P ( 1 3 / 3 1 1 ; 2 P L S ( 1 / 1 1 1 2 5 P L S ( 4 / 1 1 1 2 2 P L S ( 7 / 1 ! 131 P L S (1 C / 1 1 1 3 4 P ~ S ( 1 3 / 1 1 1 3 7 P L S ( 1 / 2 1 ' I 4 C F L S ( 4 / 2 1 1 4 ; P L S ( 7 / 2 ) 1 4 6 P L S ( 1 1 / 2 1 14O P L S ( 1 ; / 2 1 1 5 2 P L S ( 1 / 3 1 1 5 5 P L S ( 4 / 3 1 1 5 s P L S ( 7 / 3 1 l c l P L S ( l L / 3 ) 1 0 4 P L S ( 1 3 / 3 ) l c 7 P L h T ( 1 1 1 7 C F L k T ( k 1 1 7 3 PLLiT (71 1 7 c F L L . T ( l C ) 1 7 0 P L L T (1 3 ) I t 2 F L 1 l b 5 F L l i + F L 3

Y O P L P ( 1 4 / 1 1 9 3 P L P ( 2 / 2 1 9 c P L P ( 5 / 2 1 9 9 P L P ( E / Z I

1 b 2 F L ? ( 1 1 / 2 1 1 L S P L P ( 1 4 / Z I 1 L E P L P ( 2 / 3 1 111 P L P ( 5 / 3 1 1 1 4 P L P ( 8 / 3 1 117 P L P ( 1 1 / 3 1 1 2 c P L P ( 1 4 / 3 1 1 2 3 P L S ( 2 / 1 1 1 2 6 P L 5 ( 5 / 1 1 1 2 9 P L S ( 8 / 1 1 1 3 2 P L S ( 1 1 / 1 ) 1 3 5 P L S ( 1 4 / 1 1 1 3 8 P L S ( 2 / 2 1 1 4 1 P L S ( 5 / 2 1 1 4 4 P L S ( 8 / 2 1 1 4 7 P L S ( 1 1 / 2 > 1 5 0 P L S ( 1 4 / 2 > 1 5 3 P L S ( 2 / 3 > 1 5 6 P L S ( 5 / 3 > 1 5 9 P L S ( 8 / 3 1 1 6 2 P L 5 ( 1 1 / 3 ) 1 6 5 F L S ( 1 4 / 3 1 l c 8 P L h T ( 2 ) 171 P L h T ( S > 1 7 4 PLWT ( S 1 1 7 7 PL!:T ( 1 1 1 1 C O P L C T ( 1 4 1 l i 3 F L 2

APPENDIX 3

T k , l s s p c ~ r ; c ; ~ x ~ ~ ( C ~ L C L - C , t P : c : E X E E ~ ~ P ~f t r , ~ S E S S ; C ~ . k i t h t t , ~ 5 f F U e V o T G d t c & r , G l ; s i S L ? t h ~ Z C C ~ ~ ~ ; G " C o n s e q ~ e n C e s O f 1 u m k e r l f i j i n t e m p e r a t e i b l t " .

PRcV,;L; i . i T Y P E L F V E G t T h T I C f . 5 - t 3 1 5 i 5 - m i x c a f c r ~ s t 7 - breed l t t f i o r k ~ t L - n e ; c c ~ s t e ~ b e Y - s t c - b b t I v - C r y S t e ~ b ~ 1 1 - s u L c t s e r t 1; - c e L c r t

i n g ~ t c r o ( , c r t : c r , i f l ; , r ,cs ~ c e n f o r a ~ r l c ~ l t ~ r ~ l ~ ~ r ; ~ s e s ( f ; l - P.

J - LLh?, I .LE 1 - h i f ~ ~ , i . T C ~';;L:/-L' - ,, c Z C ' i I . - F I L ; - - C t , L h ; y L T ' i i L T L T E 3 - t e l r , b c r i . t ~ r e t r e n ~ 4 - b r k c ~ b i t u t ; c r , f r e n c 5 - ~ u i l ~ t : c r I r r i c f ~ r t , l ~ c c . t : o r i r c t e s 6 - l r r i h C . * . l G l i r t ~ : r : l k 7 - C T G L ~ ~ L ~ E ~ ~ ' t t ~ ~ ~ i t y 5 - tirc-:, i n , i a n c z r,c: c z ~ c : f c r c , ~ r ~ c ~ 1 t c ; r c . l F L ~ Q C S E S

. - 7' - ; r t ; i~c :z , - tic-s;r ~ c y l c r , c f I- i c r * : ; 5s. 1; - r n c r G r s e i r c ~ c r ~ s s ~ c i l c . r . c !c L S E C f ~ r c j r ; c ~ l t ~ r c ; 1 p ~ r ~ 2 s e s 15 - n e ~ ~ l t r ~ t ; ; : c r ~ c cr, l ; . r . cs r c t ~ s e r f c r a ; r i i u ; ? ~ r ; l ~ b r p c s ~ s 1' - R E L ~ h . ~ l t e r i : e l t ~ c c l ; .nCs L S ~ C f o r i . c r : i t i l t u r z l ~ ~ r c o s ~ s 1; - ct-.;~-~,c-c- ;r ; + I . L ~,I:;GLTI: c f L C C L , L ~ C J ~ ' ,,c; b ; i~;;:~r;r., j

u - C C I . T l I . L L i - h k T i l . 1 . T L F k t V 1 L L S : L E I . A ? I L 2 - S H L b S Y S T E I I : ? A T E

- t ~ f i i h ~ r ~ t h r e t r ~ r ~ ~ 4 - ~ r c - c ; l - ~ t ~ t ; o r ~ t r e r : ~ 5 - p o > ; ~ r ; o n ~ n c f e r t ~ l l s z : t : c r , r a t e s 0 - ; r r i ~ ~ , ~ i ~ r ~ ~ C ~ L K I G 7 - a r ~ ~ i r ~ ~ ~ , e I n t e r , c l t ) 6 - t i r e s c n l ; r , c c n o t U S E L f c r z . ~ r i c ~ l t h r z , l p ~ r p c s e s Y - t r r i f ~ c l a l c e s ; r ~ c t ; c n of t l c r , : a s s l u - 1 r a ~ r e ~ 5 s o r L E C ~ ~ B S ~ o f I L C C ; S u s s c f t r ~ ~ ~ r 1 c u l t ~ r z l p u r p c s e s 1 1 - r , e ~ b l c n t a c ~ o r ~ s c n l a r i c s n c t ~ s c c t o r i d s r i ~ u l t ~ r c l ~ ~ r p c s e s 1; - EL st--c l :er t ~ l t s c n l ~ n d s h s c a f c r a s r l c ~ l r u r a ; p u r a o s e s 1 ': - c h a r i b k s i n t h ~ z a c ~ n ; o f ~ c o a c z , u s e o b y l u a k e r ~ n ~

1 - i a r i c s n o t ~ s e ~ f o r o , r ; c u i t ~ r z l ~ ~ r ~ o s e s 2 - i ~ n c s sea t o r a j r l c ~ l t ~ r a l L ~ r ~ c s e s 2 - ~ c t l t r ~ a s

S T A I . C A E L L L T F C T

1 - l a n c c r l c t L S E C f o r ~ . ; r i c u ? t ~ r : . l p ~ r b o z ~ z ; -. L L T I C I S L L Z C T C T ~ & T ~ c L ~ ~ L T s ~ / ; l r T b G S C C 7 . - ~ t t > ; n c s

1 ' - : & L T L ~ , ' , ' , ~ ; C / C ; ~ ~ . ~ ~ C . 5 ~ ~ 1 6 f o r c.11 V L T ~ C , ~ ~ C S i - ; ~ t o c ~ t i c ; s e c , r , t c scale f c r e v e r y v a r z a b l f 3 - r n o r ; ~ ; l ; s i r , i l e s c a l ~ f c r ~ 1 1 v ~ r i ~ , i ; l k s 4 - n l a r i ~ & - / ~ ; ; ~ r Z t c :c ; le f c r every v , r i S b l e