Symposium on Climate, Forest Growth, Fire Fire and Air Quality Interactionsand Air Quality Interactions

Overview of Project and PersonnelOverview of Project and Personnel

Uma ShankarUma ShankarCarolina Environmental ProgramCarolina Environmental Program

The University of North Carolina at Chapel HillThe University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

September 7, 2006September 7, 2006

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments

Project funding: EPA STAR Grant RD 83227701Project funding: EPA STAR Grant RD 83227701Dr. Darrell Winner, Program OfficerDr. Darrell Winner, Program Officer

Aim is to support the EPA Global Change Aim is to support the EPA Global Change Program byProgram byExamining consequences of climate change for wild Examining consequences of climate change for wild

fire occurrence and consequently for U.S. air qualityfire occurrence and consequently for U.S. air qualityCombining the effects of climate change with forest Combining the effects of climate change with forest

growth to examine impacts on fire frequency and growth to examine impacts on fire frequency and intensityintensity

Investigating methods to credibly project changes in Investigating methods to credibly project changes in biogenic emissions from 2002-2050 due to firesbiogenic emissions from 2002-2050 due to fires

Thank YouThank You

Participation and Outreach: USDA Forest Participation and Outreach: USDA Forest ServiceService

Donald McKenzie, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences LabDonald McKenzie, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab Jeffrey Prestemon and Evan Mercer, Southern Jeffrey Prestemon and Evan Mercer, Southern

Research StationResearch StationSteven McNulty and Jennifer Moore Myers, Southern Steven McNulty and Jennifer Moore Myers, Southern

Global Change Program for tirelessly fielding Global Change Program for tirelessly fielding questionsquestions

Facility Arrangements: Tony Reevy, Associate Facility Arrangements: Tony Reevy, Associate Director, CEPDirector, CEP

Logistical Support: Shelia Nickerson, Admin Logistical Support: Shelia Nickerson, Admin Assistant, Center for Environmental Modeling Assistant, Center for Environmental Modeling for Policy Developmentfor Policy Development

Air Quality and Climate ImpactsAir Quality and Climate Impacts of Firesof Fires

Impacts of wild fires Impacts of wild fires felt at the regional and felt at the regional and global scaleglobal scale

> 8M acres burned last year> 8M acres burned last year Black carbon => positive Black carbon => positive

forcing on climate; SOforcing on climate; SO22 emissions => negative emissions => negative forcing on climate from forcing on climate from secondarily produced SOsecondarily produced SO44

Dioxins and GHGsDioxins and GHGs also also associated with fire plumes associated with fire plumes (Gullett and Tuotti, (Gullett and Tuotti, AE 37AE 37, , 2003; Simmonds et al., 2003; Simmonds et al., AE AE 3939, 2005), 2005)

Effect of radiatively Effect of radiatively important pollutants on important pollutants on short-term climate short-term climate variability affects forest variability affects forest growth, and thus the growth, and thus the biogenic emissions as well biogenic emissions as well as fuel available for as fuel available for potential firespotential fires

CO O3

Carbonaceous PM

Model predictions of the effects of Canadian boreal fires on PM and ozone in July 1995

Modeling IssuesModeling Issues

Feedback of short-term climate variability Feedback of short-term climate variability to forest growth is not represented in most to forest growth is not represented in most modelsmodels

Most atmospheric chemistry-transport Most atmospheric chemistry-transport models do not include feedback to models do not include feedback to dynamics of scattering and absorbing dynamics of scattering and absorbing aerosols or ozoneaerosols or ozone

Understanding these feedbacks is Understanding these feedbacks is essential to fully assessing the impact of essential to fully assessing the impact of managed vs. uncontrolled fires on forest managed vs. uncontrolled fires on forest land and the net benefits of fire land and the net benefits of fire management plansmanagement plans

ObjectivesObjectives

Examine impacts of short-term climate Examine impacts of short-term climate variability on:variability on: forest growth -> fuel loads -> fire frequency, forest growth -> fuel loads -> fire frequency,

fire emissionsfire emissions feedbacks to forest biomass and biogenic feedbacks to forest biomass and biogenic

emissionsemissions To investigate the changes in air quality due to To investigate the changes in air quality due to

evolution of emissions in response to fires in evolution of emissions in response to fires in successive years under various fire scenariossuccessive years under various fire scenarios

To study the feedbacks of these air quality To study the feedbacks of these air quality changes to climate variabilitychanges to climate variability

In the process, to build a modeling system that In the process, to build a modeling system that can be further refined for similar assessmentscan be further refined for similar assessments

Modeling SystemModeling System

PnETCCSM

METCHEM(MM5-MCPL /

MAQSIP)

BlueSky-EM-SMOKE-

BEIS3

Monthly met.

Base & future yearfuel data

Fire Simulator

Hourly met

Fireactivity data

Modifiedbiogenic

land use data

Anthropogenicinventoriedemissions

Gridded &SpeciatedEmissions

Initial &boundary

met.

Forest Growth ModelingForest Growth Modeling

Forest process model used by the US Forest Forest process model used by the US Forest Service’s Southern Global Change ProgramService’s Southern Global Change Program

Limei Ran (CEP) – GIS and FIA database Limei Ran (CEP) – GIS and FIA database experienceexperience

Consultants: Steven G. McNulty and Jennifer Consultants: Steven G. McNulty and Jennifer Moore Myers, Southern Global Change Program, Moore Myers, Southern Global Change Program, USDA Forest ServiceUSDA Forest Service

Fire/Smoke Emissions ModelingFire/Smoke Emissions Modeling

BlueSky-EM, which links a smoke emissions BlueSky-EM, which links a smoke emissions model with the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel model with the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Model for processing and merging Emissions Model for processing and merging with emissions from other sourceswith emissions from other sources

Andy HollandAndy Holland (CEP) – extensive experience with (CEP) – extensive experience with SMOKE application and developmentSMOKE application and development

Consultant: Doug Fox (co-PI), CIRAConsultant: Doug Fox (co-PI), CIRA Future-year fire modeling expertise from USDA Future-year fire modeling expertise from USDA

FS consultantsFS consultants Donald McKenzie, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, Donald McKenzie, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab,

USDA Forest Service on fuel load databaseUSDA Forest Service on fuel load database and and futurefuture year firesyear fires

Jeff Prestemon and Evan Mercer, Southern Research Jeff Prestemon and Evan Mercer, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service on Southern U.S. fire Station, USDA Forest Service on Southern U.S. fire triggerstriggers

Air Quality and Climate Feedback ModelingAir Quality and Climate Feedback Modeling

Coupled meteorology-chemistry model Coupled meteorology-chemistry model developed by CEP (Aijun Xiu, PI) under a developed by CEP (Aijun Xiu, PI) under a previous EPA grantprevious EPA grant

Ongoing development and applications over the Ongoing development and applications over the U.S. and South Asia U.S. and South Asia Aijun Xiu: meteorology/climate modelingAijun Xiu: meteorology/climate modeling Uma Shankar, Frank Binkowski: aerosol and Uma Shankar, Frank Binkowski: aerosol and

radiative transfer modeling and analysisradiative transfer modeling and analysis Sarav Arunachalam: gas-phase chemistry Sarav Arunachalam: gas-phase chemistry

modeling and analysismodeling and analysis Adel Hanna: climate dynamics and analysisAdel Hanna: climate dynamics and analysis

Documentation Support / CoordinationDocumentation Support / Coordination

Jeanne Eichinger (CEP) – Technical EditorJeanne Eichinger (CEP) – Technical Editor