Epidemiologic Applications: Group-Based Developmental

Trajectories

Sylvana Côté, Ph.D.

22

Applications of groupApplications of group--basedbasedtrajtrajectoryectory methodmethod

A. Topography of social development A. Topography of social development B. ID predictors of trajectoriesB. ID predictors of trajectoriesC. ID outcomes of trajectoriesC. ID outcomes of trajectoriesD. Model coD. Model co--morbidity (comorbidity (co--occurrence)occurrence)

33

A developmental trajectory describes the course of a A developmental trajectory describes the course of a behaviour or characteristic as a function of age or time.behaviour or characteristic as a function of age or time.

Definition: Trajectory

44

Definition: Heterogeneity

Object or system consisting of multiple items havinga large number of structural variations.

55

When to use groupWhen to use group--based based trajectories?trajectories?

Hypotheses about developmental Hypotheses about developmental trajectories that are inherently trajectories that are inherently categorical: categorical:

Do certain types of people tend to have Do certain types of people tend to have distinctive developmental trajectories?distinctive developmental trajectories?

66

MethodsParticipants:

• 3000 kindergarten children.• Representatives of Quebec

children in 1986• Repeated assessments of a

behavior

77

Hyperactivity TrajectoriesBoys

Girls

16.9%

10.9%35.8%

Impulsive36.5%

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

88

Data before proc Data before proc trajtraj: 7 assessments per : 7 assessments per individual over 7 yearsindividual over 7 years

5

4

5

3

4

4.55

99

Outputs of the analysisOutputs of the analysis

ProbabilityProbability of of belongingbelonging to a to a trajectorytrajectorygroupgroup

Varies Varies fromfrom 0 to 10 to 1TrajectoryTrajectory group assignement group assignement basedbased on on maximum maximum posteriorposterior probabilityprobability

1010

Trajectoires d’hyperactivité

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Côté et al. (2002). Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry

Garçons

Nicholas: P=0.7

Nicholas: P=0.2

Nicholas: P=0.1

1111

Trajectoires d’hyperactivité

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Côté et al. (2002). Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry

Garçons

1212

Groups with distinct and opposite Groups with distinct and opposite developmentdevelopment

1

2

Time 1 Time 2 Tme 3 Time 4

Leve

l of

depr

essi

on

1313

Body Mass Index TrajectoriesBody Mass Index Trajectories

141516171819202122232425

0,5 1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5 6 7 8Age (years)

BMI

41%

5.4%

54.5%

Pryor, Touchette, Genolini, Falissard, Tremblay, Côté.

1414

Body Mass Index TrajectoriesBody Mass Index Trajectories

141516171819202122232425

0,5 1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5 6 7 8Age (years)

BMI Overweight

Obese

Pryor, Touchette, Genolini, Falissard, Tremblay, Côté.

Maternal Risk:Smoking pregnancy

Obesity

1515

DEVELOPPEMENT DE LDEVELOPPEMENT DE L’’AGGRESSION AGGRESSION PHYSIQUE: 1.5 TO 17 YEARSPHYSIQUE: 1.5 TO 17 YEARS

N=2 223ELDEQ

N=10 658ELNEJ

Côté et al. (2006). Journal Abnormal Child Psychology

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

11 12 14 15 16 17

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Phys

ical

agg

ress

ion

scor

e

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 6.0

N=1 000DEGEP

NIVEAU ATYPIQUE OBSERVABLE TÔT

D’AGRESSION PHYSIQUE ÉLEVÉE =

RAREDE NOVO =RARE

NORME= INHIBITION DE L’AGRESSION

1616

A. TOPOGRAPHYA. TOPOGRAPHYPhysical aggression between: 1.5 and 6 yearsPhysical aggression between: 1.5 and 6 years

N=2000

Côté et al. (2006). Journal Abnormal Child Psychology

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 6.0

1717

B. ID predictors of trajectoriesB. ID predictors of trajectories

1818

Sous quelles conditions les enfants peuvent-ils

bénéficier de la fréquentation de la

crèche?

Milieu familiale?

Qualité de la garderie?

Conditions de la fréquentation?

Côté S.M. et al (2007). Archives of General Psychiatry.

ELDEQ: N=1691

00,05

0,10,15

0,20,25

0,30,35

0,40,45

Before 9 months at or after 9 months NeverAge which child care was intiated

High maternal educationLow maternal education OR=2.77

Protection by Child Care for HighProtection by Child Care for High--Risk Risk Children: Physical Aggression (N=1691)Children: Physical Aggression (N=1691)

Côté et al., 2007, Archives of general Psychiatry

Côté S.M. et al (2007). Archives of General Psychiatry.

ELDEQ: N=1691

00,05

0,10,15

0,20,25

0,30,35

0,40,45

Before 9 months at or after 9 months NeverAge which child care was intiated

High maternal educationLow maternal education OR=5

Protection by Child Care for HighProtection by Child Care for High--Risk Risk Children: Physical Aggression (N=1691)Children: Physical Aggression (N=1691)

Côté et al., 2007, Archives of general Psychiatry

2121

C. Applications:C. Applications:LinkingLinking trajectoriestrajectories to to

outcomesoutcomes

2222

Child Care services Child Care services betweenbetween5 5 monthsmonths and 4 and 4 ½½ yearsyears

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5 17 29 41 50

Child's Age in Months

Num

ber

of h

ours

/wk

in C

hild

-Car

e

High-Amount CCG (34.5%)Moderate-Amount CCG (28,4)

Low-Amount CCG (37,1)

2323

ChildChild--care services reduce socioeconomic care services reduce socioeconomic inequalities in school readinessinequalities in school readiness

d=0.56

2424

ChildChild--care services reduce socioeconomic care services reduce socioeconomic inequalities in academic achievementinequalities in academic achievement

d=0.46

2525

ChildrenChildren whowho benefitbenefit the the mostmost are are lessless likelylikely to to receivereceive childchild carecare

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5 17 29 41 50

Child's Age in Months

Num

ber

of h

ours

/wk

in C

hild

-Car

e

High-Amount CCG (34.5%)Moderate-Amount CCG (28,4)

Low-Amount CCG (37,1)

Low maternal educationFamily dysfunctionLow family income

2626

Testing the impact of an Testing the impact of an experimental interventionexperimental intervention

2727

2828Lacourse, E., Côté, S., Nagin, D. S., Vitaro, F., Brengden M., & Tremblay, R. E. (2002). A longitudinal-experimental design to test developmental theories of antisocial behavior. Development and Psychopathology, 14, 911-926.

26.3%

TrajectoriesTrajectories of of physicalphysical violence violence

14.2%

5.8%

6.9%

16.4%

24.4%32.2%

2929

KINDERGARTEN INTERVENTION KINDERGARTEN INTERVENTION MODIFIED TRAJECTORIES OF VIOLENCEMODIFIED TRAJECTORIES OF VIOLENCE

Lacourse, E., Côté, S et al. (2002). Development and Psychopathology.

Physical Aggression

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Low 1 Low 2 Lowrising

Lowdecline

Mediumdecline

Highrising

Prob

abili

ties

Control group

Intervention group

Low risk group

3030

D. Applications:D. Applications:ModModééliserliser la la ‘‘coco--morbiditmorbiditéé’’, la , la

continuitcontinuitéé hhééttéérotypiquerotypique versus versus homotypiquehomotypique

3131

ContinuitContinuitéé hhééttéérotypiquerotypique (vs (vs homotypique)homotypique)

ContinuitContinuitéé dd’’un trait ou attribue qui sousun trait ou attribue qui sous--tend divers comportements. tend divers comportements. PrPréésume continuitsume continuitéé mais avec des mais avec des manifestations diffmanifestations difféérentes selon lrentes selon l’’âge et âge et les contextes de vie. (autobus vs vles contextes de vie. (autobus vs véélo)lo)

3232

L’agressivité physique:Frapper; donner des

coups; se battre;

L’agressivité indirecte: répandre de fausses

rumeurs; exclure d’autres enfants; dire du

mal dans le dos des autres.

3333

Age DifferencesAge DifferencesDevelopmental Hypothesis Developmental Hypothesis

((BjorkqvistBjorkqvist et al., 1992et al., 1992))

Early Childhood (preverbal)Early Childhood (preverbal)Middle ChildhoodMiddle Childhood

Later Adolescence & Later Adolescence & AdulthoodAdulthood

PHYSICAL INDIRECT

3434

PRPRÉÉDICTORS OF JOINT DICTORS OF JOINT TRAJECTORIESTRAJECTORIES

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

4 6 8Age in years

Mea

n in

dire

ct a

ggre

ssio

n sc

ore

Low 67.9%; High rising: 32.01%

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2 4 6 8

Age in years

Mea

n ph

ysic

al a

ggre

ssio

n sc

ore

Low: 5% Low-Desister: 36.3%Moderate-Desister 43.8% High: 14.5%

3535

Joint and conditional probabilitiesJoint and conditional probabilitiesTable 3. Joint and Conditional Probabilities of Physical and Indirect Aggression.

Type of Aggression

Physical Aggression

Indirect Aggression

Low Low desisting

Moderate Desisting

High

Probabilities of Joint Trajectory Group

Membership†

Low (1) 0.048 (3) 0.324 (5) 0.297 (7) 0.011

High rising (2) 0.004 (4) 0.039 (6) 0.142 (8) 0.135

Probability of PA Conditional on IA

Low 0.071 0.477 0.436 0.016

High rising 0.011 0.124 0.444 0.420

Probability of IA Conditional on PA

Low 0.932 0.891 0.676 0.075

High rising 0.068 0.109 0.324 0.925 † The numbers in parentheses indicate the trajectory group number

3636

PRPRÉÉDICTORS OF JOINT DICTORS OF JOINT TRAJECTORIESTRAJECTORIES

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

4 6 8Age in years

Mea

n in

dire

ct a

ggre

ssio

n sc

ore

Low 67.9%; High rising: 32.01%

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2 4 6 8

Age in years

Mea

n ph

ysic

al a

ggre

ssio

n sc

ore

Low: 5% Low-Desister: 36.3%Moderate-Desister 43.8% High: 14.5%

Young momPoverty

Coercive parGirl

Coercive par

3737

E. Limits and notes of cautionE. Limits and notes of caution

Toujours corrToujours corréélationnellationnelId du meilleur modId du meilleur modèèleleVoir de lVoir de l’’hhééttéérogrogéénnééititéé llàà ou il nou il n’’y en a pas?y en a pas?Les groupes distincts sont des sont estimationsLes groupes distincts sont des sont estimations