Swedish GAINS activities – Status report March 2009 John Munthe IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd Stefan Åström Mohammed Belhaj Jenny Arnell

Swedish GAINS activities – Status report March 2009

John Munthe

IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd

Stefan ÅströmMohammed Belhaj

Jenny ArnellMaria Lindblad

Swedish GAINS updateJohn Munthe, 2009-03-22

IAM activities at IVL

GAINS Sweden

Potential control strategies in the transport sector

Energy saving potential in the housing sector

Cooperation with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine

Nordic Low Emission Scenarios


GAINS Sweden On-going work to to adapt/modify GAINS to national users and

national needs

Hardware, software, database access – on-going development in cooperation with IIASA

Planned activities:- Translation-comparison of emission inventories and projections with national data- Demand side control strategies in the transport sector- Evaluation of national scenarios for bioenergy- Evaluation of new health and ecosystem impact endpoints

NIAM Web site – running but low level maintenance and updating


Demand side control strategies in the transport sector

Continued evaluation of effects of:- increased use of biofuels- smaller cars- longer trucks- road taxes, fuel taxes, congestion charges

Potential cooperation with Chalmers Univ of Technology using energy system model MARKAL (including transport sector).


Current activities - Demand side control options - the Household & Service sector

The household sector is one of the largest energy consumers in Europe and Sweden

Currently, the household sector use ~40% of its energy to heat buildings

Reduced demand of energy needed for heating & appliances will save energy and reduce emissions of air pollutants as well as greenhouse gases

Data collection and evaluation

GAINS modelling by IIASA


Example of results – energy demand in housing sector in Sweden

Energy Demand comparison - Households Sweden, GAINS scenarios

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2005 BSL 2020 Reduction Potential2020

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h ELE

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Reduction potential if the current building refurbishing rate is doubled


Cooperation with Russia, Belarus, Ukraine

Bilateral cooperation with these countries (and IIASA) to support the implementation of air pollution policies following CLRTAP standards

First stage Russia: – Economic activity inventory, – Emission inventory Leningrad Oblast, – Implementation in the online GAINS model,


SCARP – The Swedish Clean Air Research Programme

Research Programme Funded by Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

Programme Director: Peringe Grennfelt

4 sub projects:- Particles – Lead partner: Hans Christen Hansson, ITM- Health – Lead Partner: Göran Pershagen, KI- Ecosystems – Lead Partner IVL- Integrated Assessment Modelling – Lead Partner IVL

Phase 1 ends in 2009

New proposal for Phase 2 2010-2012


SCARP Ecosystems

Focussed on nitrogen dynamics and impacts

Experimental N- additions to forest soils, investigation of impact on ground vegetation species composition, n-accumulation and n-leaching.

Model development and application (MAGIC, ForSAFE, Simple Mass Balance Model).

Main results from Phase 1:-Experimental data for process understanding and model development-Model applications e.g. ForSAFE Veg applied to species composition in nitrogen fertilised forest soils; new concepts for clriticalloads of N; SMBM for national upscaling of risks for N-leaching


SCARP Health impacts Main focus to assess health effects related to short- and

long term exposure to ambient air pollution relevant for the Nordic countries. Particular emphasis is put on effects associated with exposure to particles from sources such as road traffic, local wood burning and long range transport

Main results in Phase 1: Transport emissions impacts on lung function, focussed on children; Road dust and wood smoke particles, short term impacts, mechanisms; Cardio-vascular effects of air pollution; cohorts, panels, individuals.


SCARP Particles Main focus is to give significant contributions to the

understanding of the behaviour of particles in the atmosphere and the quantification of source-receptor relationships through measurements, data evaluation and modelling.

Main results in phase 1:

- Improved understanding of mechanisms for secondary PM formation and parameterisation for modelling. Implementation in EMEP and MATCH models on-going.

- Emission inventories for particles.


SCARP phase 2 – IAM plans

Integrate results from particle, health and ecosystem research – new end-points for health and ecosystem impacts

Evaluation of Swedish (and European) scenarios for renewable energy

Evaluation of Swedish (and European) scenarios for transport sector including new control strategies, taxes, fees etc.

Contacts IVL IAM team

John Munthe, [email protected]

Stefan Åström, [email protected] Belhaj, [email protected]

Jenny Arnell, [email protected] Lindblad, [email protected]

Documents

Swedish GAINS activities – Status report March 2009 John Munthe IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd Stefan Åström Mohammed Belhaj Jenny Arnell