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    Climate Change Analysis for the example Watershed

    B. Upendra, NCESS, NREM Group, Trivandrum - 695031

    The objective of the present study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the

    future of water resource of the example watershed through the variation of

    precipitation and temperature change in the warming climate from the context of

    increase of CO2. The impact of climate change on runoff was studied using multiple

    General Circulation Models (GCMs) as well as the Regional Climate Models (RCP)

    and all of this model will give the projections into the future based on the historical

    values and of course by simulating the future values with underlined mathematical

    equations which basically represent the model. However, every mode is limited by its

    own sensitivity. Here the associated uncertainties of the RCP8.5 which essentially

    means Regional Climate model projection with worst scenario taking into account

    evaluated using two rainfall runoff models and the runoff which is the quantity of

    water discharged in surface streams will be impacted by the change in precipitation,

    evapo-transpiration which are all associated with the temperature changes that comes

    through the climate change cycle, ultimately affects both, the water resourceavailability and demand for water by agriculture. Here are the scenarios under which

    the model simulations have been developed, the RCP8.5 with linear change

    correction, Delta change correction, Precipitation local intensity scaling and the

    power transformation of precipitation. While running the climatic model the basic

    inputs to be given are Domain, Model, Elevation/Historical Scenario and Future

    Scenario then check the files and then start processing and the steps are shown below

    in the form screenshots.

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    1) Linear Scaling Method:-

    2)

    Delta Change Correction Method:-

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    3) Precipitation Local Intensity Scaling Method:-

    4)

    Power Transformation of Precipitation:-

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    Corresponding plots for the 4 simulated stations

    Station 1

    Station 2

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    Station 3

    Station - 4

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    Correction Factors:-

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    ChartTitle

    Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4 Series5