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4th RS Platou Shipping and Offshore Conference, Singapore
Offshore Supply Vessel Market
7th of December 2012
RS Platou Economic Research
2 RS Platou Offshore Research
AGENDA •Current market status •Structural drivers: deepwater, age, well complexity •Cyclical drivers: reserves on stream, rig activity •Supply: new orders, orderbook, delays, scrapping, fleet growth •Summary
RS Platou Economic Research
PSV term-rates have lately shown some weakness
Medium sized PSV Large PSV
3 Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
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10
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30
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35
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
USD
'000
North Sea West Africa Brazil
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02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 U
SD '0
00North Sea Brazil
Average Term-rates
USD DAY 2011YTD 2012YTD %
North Sea 20,060 20,983 5
W Africa 20,400 25,600 25
Brazil 25,900 29,500 14
Average Term-rates
‘000/DAY 2011YTD 2012YTD %
North Sea 28,402 27663 -3
Brazil 31,700 34,450 9
RS Platou Economic Research
AHTS term rates also showing some weakness, but up in Asia
Small/Medium sized AHTS Large AHTS
4 Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
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60
70
0
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02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 U
SD 0
00North Sea 16,000 bhp West Africa 16,000 bhp Brazil 18,000 bhp
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02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
USD
000
North Sea 8-10,000 bhp West Africa 12,000 bhp
Brazil 12,000 bhp SE Asia 12,000 bhp
Average Term-rates
‘000/DAY 2011YTD 2012YTD %
North Sea 15,538 15,688 1
W Africa 18,160 19,675 8
Brazil 29,650 33,150 12
SE Asia 15,525 18,725 21
Average Term-rates|
‘000/DAY 2011YTD 2012YTD %
North Sea 32,248 39,524 23
W Africa 25,550 29,550 16
Brazil 44,200 48,250 9
RS Platou Economic Research
The North Sea OSV market has come off significantly in 2012
AHTS: Supply, demand and utilisation PSV: Supply, demand and utilisation
5 Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
Source: RS Platou Offshore Research
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
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50
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150
200
250
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (E)
Uti
lisat
ion
Rat
e
Ve
sse
ls
Demand Supply Utilisation
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (E)
Uti
lisat
ion
Rat
e
Ve
sse
ls
Demand Supply Utilisation
RS Platou Economic Research
OSV fleet growth by region (size of fleet in brackets)
AHTS PSV
6 Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
Source: RS Platou Offshore Research
2012/2011 ,3 months moving average
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Fle
et
Gro
wth
(18) (135)
(224)
(182) (1117) (18)
(60) (333) (118)
(21)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Fle
et
Gro
wth
(59)
(265)
(102)
(158) (1814)
(134) (211)
(110)
(671) (76)
RS Platou Economic Research
55% of oil and gas offshore discoveries in deep-water (07-11)!
7 Oslo
Shallow water ex – Middle East Shallow water Middle East
Mid-water (400-3000ft) Deep-water (>3000ft)
Source: Infield
RS Platou Offshore Research
0
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82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11
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82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11
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82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11
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82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11
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RS Platou Economic Research
0
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8
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16
20
0
4
8
12
16
20
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Ye
ars
SW MW DW
Deepwater fields are fast-tracked, leading to more SS development drilling
Time from discovery to onstream Subsea vs surface wells
8
Source: Infield
Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
Fields >50mboe and ex-Middle East
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
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19
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19
82
19
84
19
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19
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19
90
19
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19
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98
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00
20
02
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20
10
Op
era
tio
na
l su
bse
a w
ell
s
Op
era
tin
al s
urf
ac
e w
ell
s
Operational surface wells Operational subsea wells
Operational surface wells
Operational subsea wells
RS Platou Economic Research
Fixing activity increasing, even without Petrobras
Floater fixing activity (incl. November 2012) Market share by floater type* (fixing activity)
9 Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Rig
ye
ars
MW DW UDW Petrobras*
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Mar
ket
shar
e
UDW DW MW
Petrobras* newbuilds only and not annualized
12/11 +104% -22% -1%
*Petrobras newbuilds not included
RS Platou Economic Research
UDW units crowding out other floaters
Brazil West Africa
10
Source: RS Platou Offshore Research
Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
-
10
20
30
40
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Fl
oat
ers
MW DW UDW
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Flo
ate
rs
MW DW UDW
RS Platou Economic Research
Tendency towards longer duration wells
Jackups on contract and shallow water wells drilled Deepwater (>3000ft): Average well days by basin
11
Source: IHS, World Oil, BOEMRE and RS Platou Offshore Research
Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
- 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Other
Kutei Basin
Exmouth Plateau
Baram Delta
Ravva Sub-basin
KG Deep Water Sub-…
Nile Delta Basin
Senegal Basin
Lower Congo Basin
Niger Delta
Cote d'Ivoire Basin
Tano Basin
Sigsbee Sub-basin
East Campos Sub-basin
Espirito Santo Salt Sub-…
Sergipe Sub-basin
Santos Basin
Sao Paulo Plateau Sub-…
Well days
Brazil
USA
W Africa
India
Pacific
Average
(pre – salt)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Jack
up
s o
n c
on
trac
t
We
lls
Wells <400ft Jackups on contract
RS Platou Economic Research
0
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03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12O
rd
er In
ta
ke
(US
D b
n/q
ua
rte
r)
Oil
Re
ve
nu
es (
US
D b
n/d
ay
)
Oil Revenues Order Intake
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E 13E 14E
E&
P S
pe
nd
ing
(U
SD
bn
)
Oil
Se
rv
ice
Co
's R
ev
en
ue
s (
US
D b
n)
Offshore Drilling Multi-Service Equipment and Services
Subsea Other E&P (Estimated)
+7.3%
+9.3%
+14.6%
+15.3%
-13.0%
+10.0%
E&P spending expected to continue to rise
Oil revenues and oil service companies order intake* E&P spending and oil service co’s revenues
12
Source: Reuters, RS Platou
Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
*Only oil service companies reporting order intake
RS Platou Economic Research
Offshore development activity increasing (reserves under development)
Shallow water Midwater+
13 Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
Source: Infield
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sep-12
bn
TO
E
400-2999 3000+
118%
41%
RS Platou Economic Research
Active MODU utilisations elevated
Jackups Floaters
14 Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
Source: RS Platou Offshore Research
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Act
ive
uti
lisat
ion
IC blt >=1998
IC blt <1998
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012A
ctiv
e ut
ilisa
tion
UDW
DW
MW
RS Platou Economic Research
Supply, demand and utilisation: MODUs
Jackups Floaters
15
Source: RS Platou Offshore Research
Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Utilis
atio
n
Ja
cku
ps
Total supply
Active supply
Demand
Active utilization
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
110 %
120 %
130 %
140 %
150 %
160 %
170 %
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Utilisa
tio
n
Flo
ate
rs
Total supply
Active supply
Demand
Active utilization
Solid line - 30 p.a. JU assumed scrapped/removed Dotted line – 15 p.a. JUs assumed scrapped/removed
RS Platou Economic Research
Offshore Support Vessel Demand Summary
Estimated demand by water depth Demand growth by source (%)
16 Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Ve
sse
ls
Shallow Deep
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
08 09 10 11 12 13 14
An
nu
al
ch
an
ge
(%
)Production Support Drill ing Support Construction Support
Note: Due to lack of data (non-existing), supply vessel demand is not recorded directly, However, demand may be calculated implicitly through: dayrates= f(utilisation=demand/supply) - dayrates, utilisation and supply are known variables. The implicit demand is compared to our bottom up model, which estimates OSV demand mainly through rig support, production support and construction support. R2 of the bottom up demand model and implicit demand was in the period 1998-2011 88.85%.
CAGR* 97-11 Shallow 5.2% Deep 8.3% Total 6.7%
CAGR* - Compounded annual growth
9.2%
4.6%
RS Platou Economic Research
Ordering activity: AHTS & PSV
AHTS PSV
17
Source: RS Platou Offshore Research
Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
-
50
100
150
200
250
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (ytd)
Ves
sels
10-15,999 BHP 16,000+ BHP <10,000 BHP
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (ytd)
Ves
sels
-500 m2 500-899 m2 900+ m2
RS Platou Economic Research
Existing OSV fleet and orderbook by year of delivery
18 RS Platou Offshore Research
November 2012
Delivered ON ORDER IN %
UNITS EXIST.FLEET ON ORDER 2012 2012 2013 2014+ OF EXIST.FLEET
PSV (M2) -500 365 48 11 19 23 6 13.2
500-749 433 52 17 6 30 6 12.0
750-899 85 103 14 12 56 31 121.2
900+ 236 161 45 28 68 64 68.2
TOTAL 1,119 364 87 65 177 107 32.5
AHTS (BHP) 4-7,999 1,127 107 65 55 40 10 9.5
8-9,999 212 8 12 8 0 1 3.8
10-15,999 314 28 10 16 10 3 8.9
16-19,999 107 26 6 11 11 4 24.3
20,000+ 68 16 2 2 11 3 23.5
TOTAL 1,828 185 95 92 72 21 10.1
RS Platou Economic Research
Vessels are significantly delayed
AHTS
19 Oslo
Floaters PSV
RS Platou Offshore Research
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40
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100
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160
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60
80
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120
140
160
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecV
ess
els
Del. according to jan 2012 o’book
Actual del. of vsls in Jan 2012 o’book
-
50
100
150
200
250
-
50
100
150
200
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ve
sse
ls
Del. according to jan 2012 o’book
Actual del. of vsls in Jan 2012 o’book
RS Platou Economic Research
Few signs of significant pickup in rate of delivery
AHTS – deliveries by region of build PSV – deliveries by region of build
20 Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008-1 2009-1 2010-1 2011-1 2012-1
Ve
sse
ls
Brazil China Other Norway North America
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008-1 2009-1 2010-1 2011-1 2012-1
Ve
sse
ls
Brazil China Other Norway North America
RS Platou Economic Research
Expected OSV fleet growth
AHTS PSV
21
Source: RS Platou Offshore Research
Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
-5 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Fle
et
Gro
wth
Ve
sse
ls
Deliveries Scrapping/Removals Fleet Growth -5 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Fle
et
Gro
wth
Ve
sse
lsDeliveries Scrapping/Removals Fleet Growth
RS Platou Economic Research
Global OSV utlisation likely to rise further, albeit with short term weakness
22 RS Platou Offshore Research
November 2012
70
80
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100
110
120
130
140
150
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Uti
lisat
ion
Rat
e
Ve
sse
ls
Demand Supply Utilisation
Global supply, demand and utilization rate
RS Platou Economic Research
-
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40
50
60
70
-
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20
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40
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
US
D '0
00
Asia 12,000 bhp N Sea 10-15,999 bhp N Sea 16-19,999 bhp
W Africa 16,000 bhp Brazil 15,000 bhp
-
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50
-
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10
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 U
SD
'00
0
Brazil 500-750 m2 N Sea 500-749 m2 N Sea 900+ m2
W Africa 500-749m2 Brazil 900+ m2
Dayrate forecast – AHTS and PSV ($)
AHTS PSV
23 Oslo RS Platou Offshore Research
basis 12 month charter
Note: The forecasts are annual averages and will therefore not indicate variations within a year.
RS Platou Economic Research
Summary
24 RS Platou Offshore Research
December 2012
RS Platou Economic Research
RS Platou ASA (Oslo): Haakon VII's gate 10 N-0116 Oslo Norway Switchboard telephone: +47 23 11 20 00 www.platou.com
RS Platou (Asia) Pte. Ltd.: 3 Temasek Avenue #20-01, Centennial Tower Singapore, 039190 Telephone: +65 6336 8733 www.platou.com
RS Platou Economic Research
A large part of the 70s/80s built fleet has already been removed
26 RS Platou Offshore Research
November 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Ves
sels
NO DP Removed DP DP1 DP2
Existing fleet (including 2012) 70/80s 90s 00s+ Total DP2 3 43 546 592 DP1 14 55 192 261 DP 1 7 22 31 No DP 148 39 35 222 Removed 87 2 0 89 Total 253 146 795 1194