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Arial 2015 4:3
1
Arial 2015 4:3
SVB Analytics Asia Tour
2015 SSVB Frontier Technology Forum
—Fintech Forum
Steve Allan, SVB Analytics
Dec 18, 2015
Arial 2015 4:3
2
Utilities of a Bank
Intermediary Risk Mgmt. Enforcement Custody Transit
SOUR
CES USES
Trust Reputation Regulation Utility Location
Functions
Attributes
Arial 2015 4:3
3
Unbundling the Platform
Lending
Wealth Management Insurance
Personal Finance Payments
Payroll & Benefits Funding
Remittance & FX
Banking
Financial Services
Lending Club
Affirm
SoFi
Zopa
Kabbage Azimo
TransferWise
WorldRemit
Ripple Labs
Square
Stripe
LevelUp
Venmo
Simple
Digit
BillGuard
Moven
WePay
peerTransfer
WealthFront
Personal Capital Acorns
Betterment
Robinhood
Oscar
CoverHound
Insureon
Credit Karma
Zenefits
ZenPayroll
JustWorks
AngelList
Equitynet
Kickstarter
Crowdfunder
Arial 2015 4:3
4
29%
54%
16%
25% 28%
12% 9%
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
# of Deals Investments ($MM)
Payments Lending Other
Wealth Mgmt Markets Risk & Security
Insurance
Exploding Level of Investment in Fintech
Source: Accenture, CB Insights
Investment ($MM) # of Deals
While the broader Fintech ecosystem has experienced incredible investment growth, the lending and payments areas have dominated the landscape, accounting for nearly 80% of all Fintech
venture investment dollars in 2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
United States EuropeAsia Pacific Other# of Deals
2014 Investment Mix Fintech Investment Volume
Arial 2015 4:3
5
Fintech Investment Maturation
Source: Pitchbook
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Seed Series A Series B Series C Series D Series E+
Fintech venture investments have steadily migrated towards later-stage funding rounds (Series C and above) since 2013, driven by lending and payments. These once nascent areas shifted to
scaling businesses
Invested Capital by Round Median Round Size ($MM)
Arial 2015 4:3
6
Fintech Crowned “Unicorns”
Source: CBInsights
Fintech Segment Unicorns Market Value
Lending 8 $23.7B
Payments 8 $21.9B
Other 5 $11.8B
Total 21 $57.4B
With the explosion of “unicorn” valuations over the past three years, Fintech has seen a
disproportionate share of those esteemed valuations concentrated in lending and payments
$0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12
FundingCircle
Jimubox
Coupa
China Rapid Finance
Kabbage
Zuora
TransferWise
Oscar
Prosper
One97
Avant Credit
Klarna
Adyen
Mozido
Powa Technologies
CreditKarma
SoFi
Zenefits
Stripe
Square
Lufax
Company Valuation ($B)
Arial 2015 4:3
7
Alternative Lending
Arial 2015 4:3
8
Low Interest Rates Drive Alternative Lending
Source: Lending Club, Prosper Marketplace, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Lending Club Prosper
Loan Volume ($M)
Origination Volume Growth
In an environment of sustained low interest rates, coupled with the technology advancements, investors on P2P lending platforms are increasingly finding enhanced yield opportunities in
alternative lending investments, driving loan origination volume growth
ROI Spread over Deposits
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
60-month CD Rates <$100k
Lending Club - ROI (Adjusted for Charge Offs)
Prosper - ROI (Adjusted for Charge Offs)
Arial 2015 4:3
9
Platform Efficiencies
Source: Left Chart: Company filings Right Chart: Lending Club SEC Form 10-Q 09/30/2015 1. Based on borrower responses to survey conducted by Lending Club between 10/1/14 – 10/1/15. 2.
60-month CD rates < $100k, St. Louis Federal Reserve. 3. Average interest rate for borrowers who received a loan to consolidate existing debt or pay off credit card balances per Lending Club survey. 4. Median Adjusted Net Annualized Return for investors with 100+ notes, note concentration of <2.5% of portfolio value, all loan grades, and portfolio age of 12-18 months
Illustration of Platform Lending Efficiency
Platform lending efficiencies driven by technology and business model lead to 50-70% lower operating expenses over traditional lenders, resulting in greater savings for borrowers and
improved returns for investors
Platform Lending Business Model Drives Lower Costs
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Costs, Revenue, & Charge
Offs
22.1%1
0.79%2
Traditional Banks
Lending Club
Net
Annualized Return4
7.9%+
14.7%3 4.9% 5.1%
5.9% 6.2%
7.1%
8.5%
2.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Median
OpEx % of Loan Balances
Arial 2015 4:3
10
Refinancing 49%
Credit Card Payoff 19%
Other 32%
The Refinance Incentive
Source: Lending Club, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Revolving vs Term Loan Interest Rate Spread
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Finance Rate on Personal Loans, 24 Months
Credit Card Interest Rate, All Accounts
Borrowers, presented with a substantial cost savings incentive to refinance existing credit card and other debt, represent the predominant borrowing use-case. At the same time, platform investors are presented with an opportunity to gain exposure to an asset class previously restricted to banks and financial institutions with the infrastructure to facilitate such
transactions
Lending Club Reported Loan Purpose
Arial 2015 4:3
11
Payments
Arial 2015 4:3
12
Technology Fuels Card Payments Growth
Driving….
Cloud Networks Devices
$2.7
$4.9
$7.6
$10.0
2005 2013 2018P 2023P
U.S. Card Payment Volume Growth
Technological advancements in the payments sector has lead to the popularization of card payments and the increased acceptance of card payments
Arial 2015 4:3
13
Payors Payees
Payment Networks
Fed ACH / Wire / Check
Card Networks – Visa, MasterCard
Value-add layer: innovating at the endpoints
Considering the strength and viability of the traditional payments ecosystem, there is a clear trend with investments in payments companies to innovate on top of this existing
ecosystem and disrupt incumbents at the endpoints
Leveraging the Existing Payments Networks
Arial 2015 4:3
14
Global Remittance Market
• Drivers of Growth
–Globalization
–Internet Proliferation
–Mobility
• Disruption Opportunity
–$600B Market
–Billions Put Back in the Hands of Consumers
–Closed Loop Advantage
Source: World Bank
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Global Cost of Sending Remittances
Global Weighted Average Global Average
The historical concentration of players in the remittance market coupled with high transaction fees creates a tremendous opportunity for technological improvements
Arial 2015 4:3
15
Blockchain Technology over Bitcoin
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
2013/1/1 2014/1/1 2015/1/1
BTC Annualized Volatility
S&P Annualized Volatility
GLD Annualized Volatility
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Daily Transactions
Daily Transactions - BTC Volatility - BTC
Source: Coindesk, Yahoo Finance
Focus is shifting from the promise of Bitcoin to the power of the Blockchain, a technology that leverages the power of a distributed ledger to simplify financial transactions
Arial 2015 4:3
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Concluding Summary
Technology enablement and regulatory constraints are unbundling the value chain of many core financial products, moving it away from centralized financial institutions back to the nodes of capital supply and demand
The rise of alternative lending models holds a lot of promise for both borrowers and investors; recent economic trends have greatly contributed to the sector’s growth, but their tech stack and customer experiences are re-writing the playbook for consumer and SMB lending
Extension of financial services will grow to the previously “underbanked” or “uncardable” populations as technology reduces barriers to individualized financial servicing while lowering the overall costs of financial transactions with the greatest impact on the underserved
Payments innovation is highly focused on the endpoints, leveraging the existing payments infrastructure in new ways to create value for both consumers and merchants
Arial 2015 4:3
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Disclaimers
This material, including without limitation to the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The
material is based in part on information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which have not been
independently verified by us and for this reason we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information
should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. You
should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material
should be construed as a solicitation, offer or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other
transaction.
©2015 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Member Federal Reserve System. SVB>, SVB Financial Group, and Silicon Valley
Bank are registered trademarks. SVB Analytics is a member of SVB Financial Group and a non-bank affiliate of Silicon Valley Bank.
Products and services offered by SVB Analytics are not FDIC insured and are not deposits or other obligations of Silicon Valley
Bank. SVB Analytics does not provide tax or legal advice. Please consult your tax or legal advisors for such guidance.
Arial 2015 4
:3
Thank you.