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Sustainable Development
Components: Integrating Social Economic and Environmental Goals
in holistic
approaches which yield acceptable futures.
Key drivers:
Human Numbers
Expectations
Consumption (per capita)
Technology (affecting ability to provide for needs)
Major Trends (assumptions implicit re continuation of current
trends)
Global Canada
Growth continues in global population but
with slower pace
Internal generated growth below
replacement, supplemented by
immigration
Expectations for growth and attainment of
lifestyles of the West continue.
Production continues to seek least cost
least regulated sourcing
Expectations for growth and increase in
consumption per capita continue to grow.
Some seek alternative low footprint
lifestyles and this cohort grows as a
percentage
Ability to require environmental or
workplace standards for imports is
strengthened
Reduction in global supply of some
resources (oil, some minerals like rare
earths, continue).
Alternative energy sources become more
important as access to cheap fossil fuels is
reduced ( due to depletion, competition or
conflict)
Least cost fossil fuel supplies depleted;
higher cost alternatives kick in (e.g. oil
sands, deeper or less rich coal deposits)
Focus continues on current stocks with
some focus on renewables
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Efficiency of use of resources is a growing
goal - cost driven
Efficiency of use of resources is a growing
goal - cost driven
Natural ecosystems continue to beremoved for food and fuel
production
Natural ecosystems are sustained at nearcurrent levels. Some
marginal farmed
systems are converted back to more
natural states
Key technologies will continue to reduce
per unit use of energy and other key
resources in support of each unit of
consumption
Key technologies will continue to reduce
per unit use of energy and other key
resources in support of each unit of
consumption
Technological breakthroughs will continue
to be kept proprietorial and patent
protection will be strengthened
Technological breakthroughs will continue
to be kept proprietorial and patent
protection maintained
Some Key Technologies/breakthrough areas (currently in
development and likely
available in next decade is Canada involved enough? )
High efficiency capture of solar energy at large scale and small
(residential)
scales e.g., Durable solar collectors which can be used in
construction (roofs,
walls, parking lots) Inexpensive storage media for energy at
dwelling or village scale these need
not be light, only inexpensive, reliable and simple to run and
maintain
High efficiency long distance transport of energy e.g., ambient
temperature
superconductors for long distance energy transport - link this
to solar at a
regional scale or to allow efficient load sharing between time
zones
Simpler filtration systems for water purification and waste
management
particularly those capable of filtering complex mixes of
contaminants
Real time remote monitoring systems for key environmental
contaminants
More robust crops which will survive a wider range of water
regimes and
temperatures given climate change potential
Light weight , portable, high capacity energy storage systems
for vehicles
Insect repellents which are medically safe and which will last
for 24 hours or
more without having to be replaced
Safer methods to allow foodstuffs to last longer in storage
without degradation
Mass produced transportable durable dwellings (from moulds )
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New food source (e.g nutritional food from algae or..?)
De- salinization technology which is low energy. (scale?)
Substitutes for key minerals for many current purposes (e.g.
metals)
Breakthrough Events (change all the rules/assumptions)
Safe cold fusion
Social transformation (such as new ethic of satisfaction from
other than
material consumption; new religion with different requirements
sweeps
significant populations- re food, reproduction, expectations of
lifestyles
or ??.)
Collapse of global systems (who foresaw the economic meltdown? -
was
it foreseeable???
Pandemic
Breakdown of global trade and transportation systems (forcing
local self
sufficiency??)
Weaponry (e.g. someone perfects a weapon which can evaporate
structures, crops, population or infrastructure effectively from
long
distance and uses it (who??)
Who knows??? - not foreseeable with current knowledge
