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Sustaining Canada’s Marine Biodiversity: Responding to the
Challenges Posed by Climate Change,Fisheries, and Aquaculture
Jeffrey HutchingsDept Biology, Dalhousie University
“Of…major fish stocks supporting Canada’s fisheries… overall fish population sizes have declined by 50 per cent, according to a recent Royal Society of Canada Expert Panel.” Oceana Canada, Sept 2015
Among the top 15 papers ever read at the website of Environmental Reviews:(Hutchings et al. 2012. Climate change, fisheries, and aquaculture: trends and consequences for Canadian marine biodiversity. Env. Rev. 20: 220-311.)
Presentations: • MPs/Senators on Parliament Hill • Canada Oceans Lecture (Vancouver)• Universities (Calgary, Victoria, Queens,
Dalhousie, Tasmania); • Public Lectures (e.g. Orillia, ON; Halifax)
The Report’s recommendations were sent one week ago to several
high-level Liberal Members of Parliament from British Columbia.
Elements of Precaution: Recommendations for the Regulation of Food Biotechnology
in Canada (2001)
Royal Society of CanadaExpert Panel Report (2001)
Spencer Barrett, U. TorontoJoyce Beare-Rogers, OttawaConrad Brunk, U. WaterlooTimothy Caulfield, U. AlbertaBrian Ellis, UBCMarc Fortin, McGillAnthony Ham Pong, OttawaJeffrey Hutchings, DalhousieJohn Kennelly, U. AlbertaJeremy McNeil, LavalLeonard Ritter, GuelphKarin Wittenberg, U. ManitobaCampbell Wyndham, CarletonRickey Yada, Guelph
Communication of science to
decision-makers
Ideal situation occurs when
decision-makers
solicit Expert Panel advice
Objectives:• Document trends in marine biodiversity• Describe trends in key biodiversity stressors and
predict their consequences for sustaining biodiversity• Audit Canada’s performance in meeting national and
international obligations to sustain biodiversity
(2012)
Territorial Seas(Exclusive Economic Zone)
-------------------------Canada: 2,687,667 km2
EU: 1,008,904 km2
US: 796,441 km2
Longest coastline in the world (~230,000 km)
8 of 10 provinces and all 3 territories (86% of the population) border salt water
Canada: An Ocean Nation?
Canada’s Immense Ocean Geography Comes WithChallenging Ocean Stewardship Responsibilities
Haida Gwaii, BC
Johnstone Strait, BC Battle Harbour, Labrador
Cape Race, NewfoundlandAxel Heiberg Island, Nunavut
RecommendationThat the Government of Canada identify international
leadership in oceans stewardshipas a top government priority.
Oceans: Some Global Considerations
Habitat for 1-2 million species
1 in 3 humans depend on fish as their primarysource of protein
90% of all ocean fisheries are coastal
45% of humans work within 100 km from a coast,generating ~61% of the world’s total Gross NationalProduct (GNP)
Ocean Ecosystem Services
Secure access to wild, low-fat, highly nutritious food
Carbon sequestration
Source of oxygen (> 50% of what we breathe)
Socio-economic well-being of coastal communities
Recreation, tourism, transportation
What is the monetary value of ocean ecosystem services?
What is the Monetary Value ofCanada’s Ocean Ecosystem Services?
Canada’s Boreal Forest: $703 billion annually
Southern Ontario’s Greenbelt: $2.6 billion annually
Mediterranean Sea: €26 billion annually
Secure access to wild, low-fat, highly nutritious food
Whichspecies?
Which fishpopulations?
How were the ‘zone’ categories scientifically determined?
Status of Major Fish Stocks in Canada (Environment Canada, 2015)
www.ec.gc.ca/indicateurs-indicators/default.asp?lang=en&n=1BCD421B-1
For species in the ‘cautious’ and ‘healthy’ zones…
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
B BMSY
0.2
Canada
Current fish biomass compared tobiomass at maximum sustainable yield
TheTarget
Canada’s marine fishes are atabout 0.3 of, or 70% lower than, the target.
Hutchings et al. 2012. Expert panel report on Sustaining Canadian Marine Biodiversity. Royal Society of Canada.
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
B BMSY
0.2
US Argentina Australia
EU
Canada
International
Western Pacific
International
New Zealand South Africa
Current fish biomass compared tobiomass at maximum sustainable yield
Protected Areas?
TheTarget
Canada’s marine fishes are atabout 0.3 of, or 70% lower than, the target.
Hutchings et al. 2012. Expert panel report on Sustaining Canadian Marine Biodiversity. Royal Society of Canada.
0.8% of Canada’s oceans are in Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)
0.11% of Canada’s oceans are closed to extractive use (CPAWS 2015)
10.5% of Canada’s land (3 times size of Germany) is protected2020Percentage of area protected
Terrestrial
Marine
“Increase the proportion of Canada’s marine and coastal areas that are protected to five percent by 2017, and ten percent by 2020.”
Canada’s Marine Biodiversity ObligationsExamples of National and International Biodiversity ObligationsProtect biodiversity Adopt precautionary approach; adopt ecosystem approachProtect and recover species at riskProtect marine environment from land-based activitiesIntegrated management plans for coastal & marine watersMaintain sustainable fisheries & sustainable aquacultureEstablish a network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)Protect vulnerable, rare & fragile ecosystems
VanderZwaag et al. (2012) Environmental Reviews
“As determined by the Royal Society of Canada in 2012,
Canada has failed to protect its aquatic biodiversity,
despite having the legal and policy framework to do so.”
(Ecology Action Centre, October 2015)
RecommendationThat Fisheries & Oceans Canada
rapidly increase its rate of statutory and policy implementation.
RecommendationThat Canada implement statutory renewal
to fulfill national and internationalcommitments to sustain marine biodiversity.
USA
Magnuson-StevensFishery Conservation and Management Act (1976)
Australia
Environment Protectionand BiodiversityConservation Act (1999)
Norway
Nature Diversity Act (2009)
What is biodiversity?Variability, or differences, among living organisms
(e.g., species, populations, genes).
Marine taxonomic group
Estimated no.species:
CANADA
Estimated no.species:
GLOBAL
Microbes (Arctic) 9,500-54,000 Not estimatedPhytoplankton 1,657 ~5,000Macroalgae 860-979 ~9,300Cold-water corals 104 ~700Sponges 265 5,000-10,000Zooplankton 900 Not estimatedBenthic infauna 2,127 Not estimatedFish: sharks,
skates, rays61 ~1,100
Fish: other (bony) 831-971 ~14,200Seabirds 38-64 383-475Mammals 52 125Hydrothermal vents 66 592
Trend dataavailable
Canada’s Marine Species RichnessCanada’s Marine Species Richness (Expert Panel, 2012)
Ogac Lake, Frobisher Bay (620 )
West Coast of Ellesmere Island (810 )
The Arctic
© J Hutchings
© J Hutchings
Phytoplankton
Phytoplankton
Many marine mammals areincreasing in abundance
Trends in Marine Biodiversity
Independent body responsible for advising the federal government on the legal listing
of Species at Risk in Canada
COSEWIC Species at Risk(April 1978-Nov 2015)
(Extinct 15)Extirpated 23Endangered 316Threatened 167Special Concern 205
711
17% of species at risk are marine
Group Wildlife Species at Risk(Extirpated, Endangered,
Threatened, Special Concern)Fishes 74Mammals 34Birds 9Molluscs 3Reptiles 4Total 123
Canadian Marine Wildlife Speciesassessed by COSEWIC as being at risk
Trends in Marine Biodiversity
NE Pacific OffshoreThreatened
(2008)
West Coast TransientThreatened
(2008)
Northern ResidentThreatened
(2008)
Southern ResidentEndangered
(2008)
Killer Whale
2008
DietsResidents: salmonTransients: seals
Northern Right WhaleEndangered
Northern Bottlenose WhaleEndangered
Group Wildlife Species at Risk(Extirpated, Endangered,
Threatened, Special Concern)Fishes 74Mammals 34Birds 9Molluscs 3Reptiles 4Total 123
Canadian Marine Wildlife Speciesassessed by COSEWIC as being at risk
Trends in Marine Biodiversity
Ivory Gull(Endangered)
But, Northern Gannetshave been increasing
1986-2006: 80% decline
Group Wildlife Species at Risk(Extirpated, Endangered,
Threatened, Special Concern)Fishes 74Mammals 34Birds 9Molluscs 3Reptiles 4Total 123
Canadian Marine Wildlife Speciesassessed by COSEWIC as being at risk
Trends in Marine Biodiversity
Porbeagle (Atlantic)89% decline since 1961
American Plaice(Atlantic)
Newfoundland andLabrador: 95%
decline since 1960
© Canadian SharkResearch Lab
Fishes
Basking Shark(Pacific)
>90% sincemid 20th century
British Columbia’s Rockfishes
Bocaccio
Threatened (2007): 80-96%
Canary Rockfish Longspine ThornyheadSpecial Concern
(2007)
Endangered (2013): 95-99%Rougheye Rockfish
Special Concern(2007)
Ogac Lake
Depletion of Canadian
Atlantic cod
A loss of 2 billion breeding individuals
By weight, loss of ~27 million adult humans
Hutchings & Rangeley (2011) Can. J. Zool.
90% decline
Trends in BiodiversityTrends in Biodiversity Stressors
LabradorCurrent
Gulf Stream
Trends in Physical and ChemicalOceanographyTemperature
Salinity (salt content)Ocean stratification (layering)
Acidity (pH)Oxygen content
OttawaMarseille
Iqaluit Bergen
Axel Heiberg Island (780N, 890W)15 August 2005
Global climate change(IPCC, 2013)
• Since 1960, the oceans’ net heat uptake has been 30 times greater than that of the atmosphere
Since 1971, 90% of theglobal heat uptake
has been borneby the oceans;> 30% of CO2 is
absorbed by the oceans
Increased CO2leads to
more carbonic acid(ocean acidification)
and lesscalcium carbonate
(vital for manyinvertebrates)
Gulf ofSt. Lawrence
(surface air temperatures strongly correlated with sea surface water temperatures)
Gulf of St. Lawrence is warming • sea surface temperature increased ~2oC since mid-1980s• 2 warmest years in the last century occurred in the last 16yrs
Gulf of St. Lawrence is experiencing reducedoxygen levels in deep (295m) waters
• deep waters briefly hypoxic in early 1960s (<30% O2 saturation)• hypoxic conditions have existed since 1984
British Columbia: all time series of at least 25 years in durationshow declining trends in O2 at depths between 100 and 400m(greatest reductions at 200-300m)
Sea Ice: Arctic…and Atlantic
~14% per decade
Decline in Gulf of St. Lawrence ice extent: ~14% in past 30 years
Lower St. Lawrence
Estuary
200-320m
Dufour et al. (2010)
Increase in acidity since
1930spH
Trends in Multi-species
FishingMortality
(blue lines)
Pacific and Atlantic
Pacific
AtlanticFish
ing
mor
talit
y (F
) rel
ativ
e to
FM
SY
Overfishing: when BLUE line is above RED line
Globally, over-fishing results in losses of:• $50 billion
annually; • $2 trillion in past
30 years (World Bank)
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0
50000
100000
150000
200000A
quac
ultu
re P
rodu
ctio
n (to
nnes
) Total
Finfish (mainly salmon)
Shellfish (mainly mussels & oysters)
Canada
Value of Canadian aquaculture (1986-2013) peaked in 2006
(~ $1billion, in 2011 $)
OverviewTrends in Biodiversity & Its StressorsEffects of Stressors on Biodiversity
The Expert Panel Report
• spatial shifts in species distributions
Consequences of Climate Changeto Marine Biodiversity
• structural and functional changes tomarine ecosystems (e.g., food webs)
• alteration or loss of habitat• temporal/spatial changes in productivity
What will this mean for populations?
ArcticOceanArctic cod
Capelin
Thick-billed murre
Fisheries-inducedalterations to
marine food websand marineecosystems:
Northwest Atlantic
1975 1985 1995 2005 20150
5001000150020002500
Land
ed V
alue
(x10
00, i
n 20
11 d
olla
rs)
All fisheries
Atlantic
Pacific
1990 1998 2006 20140
100200300400500600 Groundfish (bottom) fisheries
1990 1998 2006 20140
40
80
120
160 Pelagic/Other finfish fisheries
1990 1998 2006 20140
100200300400500 Diadromous fisheries (e.g. salmon)
1990 1998 2006 20140
500
1000
1500
2000Invertebrate fisheries
Elvers (young American eel)American eel is a Threatened species
As much as C$7,300(€5,100) per kilogram in 2015!
Elvers,in parking lot,
Bangor, Maine,…in the rain
(20 Nov. 2015)
Warmer
Fresher
Warmer
Fresher
Pacific Ocean
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
pera
ture
Salin
ityTe
mpe
ratu
reSa
linity
Dominant species of zooplankton (Neocalanusplumchrus) in Strait of Georgia is: decreasing in abundance blooming earlier (by 50 days, compared to 1970s)
What are the consequences of such phenological change
for marine species(birds, fishes)?
British Columbia’s waters have becomeincreasingly warmer and fresher
Cod Reproductive (Parental) Population Size
Pershing et al. (2015) Science
Pershing et al. (2015) Science
Cod Reproductive (Parental) Population Size
Small population size
Small populations are more vulnerable to stochasticity than large populations.
Population Productivity
(per capitapopulation growth rate; ora population’s‘compound rate of interest’)
Abundance
Population Threshold?
A Tipping Point?
The dome-shaped curve is indicative of an Allee Effect(or depensation).
Populationsshowing recoveryafter fishing stopped(black lines)
Populationsshowing little or norecovery after fishing stopped (red lines)
Hutchings (2015)Proc. R. Soc. B
Population sizeas a proportion of
maximumobserved size,
Nmax
Population Productivity
(per capitapopulation growth rate; ora population’s‘compound rate of interest’)
Abundance
Population Threshold?
A Tipping Point?
~10% of maximum
Caveat: There are unlikely to be ‘tipping points’ per se
More important?
The time period that abundance
remains low.
Median numberof years below
10% of Nmax
Recovered/Rebuiltpopulations: 0 yr
Populations exhibitinglittle or no recovery: 8.5 yr
Population sizeas a proportion of
maximumobserved size,
Nmax
Hutchings (2015)Proc. R. Soc. B
The greater the depletion and the longer the period of depletion: the longer the recovery period the more uncertain the recovery
Kuparinen, Keith & Hutchings (2014) Conserv. Biol.
Allee effect greatly increases
the time to recovery and the
uncertainty of recovery
(2014)
rmax
0 20 40 60 80 100
Recruits perSpawnerPer capitaPopulationgrowth rate
(r)
Nat
ural
Mor
talit
y (M
)
Spawning Stock Biomass(parental population size)
Fisheries Science:Implicit assumption is
that death due to natural causes does not change with abundance.
Biomass
NaturalMortality
Fishing (F)
Swain and Benôit (2015) Mar Ecol Prog Ser
Natural mortality increasing as abundance
declines.
Recruitment
Many depleted fishes show little or no recovery, despite
massive reductions in fishing mortality.
Atlantic cod
Porbeagle
White hake
Northern wolffish
Cusk
Winter skate
Bocaccio
Northern Cod
Forecasting recovery
2007 2012
Former CanadianFisheries Minister
John Crosbie
99% decline
Canadian NorthernCod Stock
2007 2012
Northern cod today
Currently at 26% of thelimit reference point (Blim)
DFO (2015) CSAS Science Response 2015/018
Currently at ~5% of thestock size in early 1960s
(Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences; October 2015)
There are still no recovery targets or
harvest control rules for northern cod
RecommendationThat the Government of Canada resolveregulatory conflicts of interest affecting
Canada’s progress in fulfillingobligations to sustain marine biodiversity.
RecommendationThat the Government of Canada reduce the
discretionary power in fisheries managementdecisions exercised by the
Minister of Fisheries and Oceans.
The simplest and best strategy: protect existing diversity rebuild depleted populations and species to restore
natural diversity.
“Such a strategy will restore the natural resilience of Canada’s ocean ecosystems to adapt in response to the challenges posed by climate change and other anthropogenic activities.”
Expert Panel’s Over-arching Conclusion