Sustainable Nutrition:Sustainable Paths and Challenges

for the Food IndustryPaul Nestel Lecture

Food Industry Forum for Nutrition Research

Adelaide, 2011

A.J. McMichaelNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health

The Australian National University Canberra, Australia

Food Industry in Australia Four things to sustain

1. Environmental resource base, from where all food originates

2. Health gains in western societies over past two centuries – substantially due to gains in food yields, quality and safety

3. Reputation as responsible environmental and social citizen, attuned to needs of the future

4. Viability and profitability

GlobalisationIndustrialisation Modernisation Future

19001800 2000

Infectious diseases

Obesity

Urban air pollution

Road trauma

Greenhouse gas emissions climate change health risks

Rise-and-Fall of „Urban Health Penalties‟(Developed Country Experience)

Health risk/impact

Time

McMichael 2007

The World Feeding Challenge• World Food Production will need to double

by 2050 to feed a population:•

– 30% bigger (9.2 bn) than now (6.9 bn) – Wealthier [depending …?]

– More urbanised– Aspiring to eat more red meat–… against a background of widespread declines in land, soil, water, biodiversity; climate change; and costlier inputs

Nominalprice

Real price

FAO Food Price Index (Years 2002-2004 = 100)

1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 2011

Half a Decade of Rising (Global) Food Prices ….Population pressure, fuel and fertiliser costs, soil degradation, water shortages, speculation and hoarding, biofuels, regional climate change

100

200

08 2011

, 2009FAO, 2009

Two-thirds of the world‟s undernourished population

Reduced rainfall, 2050 [under SRES A2]

64

36

20

80

Percentage change in yields to 2050

-50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100

UN Devt Program, 2009World Bank, 2010

Plus climate-related:• Flood/storm/fire damage• Droughts – range, severity• Pests (climate-sensitive)• Infectious diseases (ditto)

CLIMATE CHANGE & MODELLED IMPACTS ON CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS, TO 2050: Poor Countries (mostly) Fare Worst

Are rain zones being pushed

south, by warming?

… and here?

Marked wet summer and dry winter

Wet summer and low winter rainfall

Uniform rainfall

Marked wet winter and dry summer

Low rainfallWet winter and low summer rainfall

AridWinter dominantWinter

Summer dominant Summer Uniform

Australia‟s seasonal rainfall zonesclimate change farm yields health impacts

Murray-Darling Basin (approx)

Crucial rain for wheat-belt

Sub-tropical ridge: high pressure, low rain [centred on ~30o Sth]

Increasingly rain-depleted upper troposphere

Number of Years Before Present (quasi-log scale)

-2

-3

-4-5

+3

+2

+1

0

Agriculture emerges

Mesopotamiaflourishes

End oflastice age

Little Ice Age, in Europe(14th-19th

centuries)

HoloceneClimaticOptimum

Global Temperature: Past 20,000 Years; Next 100 Years

Temp. change (ºC)

10,000 2,000 1,000 300 100 Now +10020,000

MedievalWarm(esp. in Europe;drying in Central America)

Av. temp. over

past 10,000 yrs

= 15 ºC

1940

-6

Dark Ages in Europe

IPCC (2007) projection:+ 2-4oC, with band of uncertainty

21stcentury:

very rapid rise??

Wine grown in Sth England

+4

Vikings inGreenland

Rome ascendant

1975

McMichael, 1993 - updated

YoungerDryas event (rapid re-cooling)

Maya decline

“Sustainability” means avoiding:• Permanent loss of natural environmental

assets that our biological wellbeing depends on:– e.g. key species/ecosystems, „fossil‟ aquifers,

Holocene climate, stratospheric ozone–

• Temporary or semi-permanent loss of social, demographic, cultural & economic assets that supports our overall wellbeing:– e.g. social cohesion, built „capital‟, political

stability, health and longevity

Palm Oil: from Southeast Asia

Saturated fat, rich source: now widely used in processed foods*

Deforestation Orangutan extinction (Indonesian „Borneo‟: Kalimantan)

Deforestation Greenhouse gas emissions

* Note: Recent new federal legislation to include labelling of palm oil on food products

Land clearing,preparation

Food production

Transport Processing Distribution Sales Wastedisposal

Relative* Environmental Impacts(„carbon‟ emissions, water usage, nitrogen/phosphorus cycles, etc.)Biodiversity

losses* Indicative only

„Food miles‟

„Global Environmental Change‟

Planetary Overload Syndrome Human aggregate pressure is disrupting/depleting many of Earth‟s environmental systems:• greenhouse gas build-up and climate change• stratospheric ozone depletion (halons, N2O, etc)• ocean acidification (CO2 uptake) • nitrification of soils & waterways (N bioactivation)• loss of biodiversity (ecosystem disruption)• depletion of freshwater• degradation of fertile land• exhaustion of fisheries

See also: Rockstrom et al. Nature 461, 2009

Efficiency Resilience

Near-termprofitability

Long-term environmentalsustainability

Recent PastAgribusiness

? Near FutureAgroecology

GLOBAL LOSS OF FOOD-CROP DIVERSITY Commercial species losses 1903-1983:

1903 1983Beet 288 17Cabbage 544 28Sweet Corn 307 12Lettuce 497 36Melons 338 27Pea 408 25Radish 463 27Squash 341 40Tomato 408 79Cucumber 285 16

TOTALS 3,879 307

LOSS: ~ 93% in just 80 yearsFigures from National Geographic, July 2011

RESILIENCE EFFICIENCY

Use of Antibiotics in Animals• Therapeutic

• sick animals

• Prophylaxis• prevent infection

• Growth promotion• weight gain• feed efficiency

Antimicrobial resistance

Food Industry‟s Role in Sustaining the Nutritional Quality of Australia‟s Diet

Should, of course, look way beyond reliance on:

1. Gene-tweaking

2. „Functional foods‟

3. … and Caveat Emptor

What have we learnt from the ongoing rise in obesity and diet-related chronic diseases?

McDonald's first fast-food restaurant in New Delhi, IndiaPhoto: Agence France Presse/Getty Images

Prof Rob Moodie: Chair, National Preventive Health Taskforce, 2008-09:“Obesity is a commercial success”

Spurious Alternatives

Climate change: Natural variation, or human-induced?

Obesity: Excess energy input, or deficient energy output?

In each case, what matters is the net

change: i.e, the balance between the two.

Some Current Views of the Food Industry

Voluntary (advertising) code – largely cosmetic

Energy-dense nutrient-poor processed foods are the cheapest – easy to sell

Resistance to proper-disclosure food labelling

Resistance to environmental considerations in national food /dietary guidelines

Food Standards ANZ is less overtly committed to protecting public health than, eg, Food Standards UK

Cosy links with some research groups

Sat (animal) fats

n3 (omega-3: „fish oils‟)1800 2000200,000 yrs ago

(advent of H. sapiens)

Changes in Dietary Fat Content and Type since Industrialisation

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Percent of diet energy intake from fats and oils

Unsat fats/oils

Note: • Doubling in fat content of diet since 1800• 10-fold change in ratio of n6:n3 oils • Recent rise in trans Fatty Acid intake

n6 (main vegetable oils)

Year

Trans FA(hydrogenated n6)

Total fat

Kilograms of CO2e emitted per kg of product

Courtesy of: M Abouzeid, 2010Adapted

Processed Meat

Kangaroo

Poultry

Pork

Beef and veal

Lamb & mutton

Carbon „Cost‟ of Meat Products(carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions per kg)

Drought: Recent and likely future expansion under climate change

Percentage of world‟s land area in drought

Extreme drought

Severe drought

Burke EJ, et al. 2006. Journal of Hydrometeorology

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

50

40

30

20

10

0

% land area in drought

30

“Climate models project increased aridity in the 21st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia.” (Dai A, 2010)

US National Resources Defense Council, 2010

Water Sustainability Index and Drought Risk withoutClimate Change: USA 2050

US National Resources Defense Council, 2010

PLUS Climate Change: Water Sustainability Index and Drought Risk: USA 2050

Uxmal, northern Yucatan (Mexico)

The Mayan Collapse, 760-910 CE: Population growth, soil exhaustion, then droughtCan we Learn from History?

Efficiency Resilience

Near-termprofitability

Long-term environmentalsustainability

Recent PastAgribusiness

? Near FutureAgroecology

We have just one planet

Good planets are hard to find

And that‟s All