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8/3/2019 Sustainable Future Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-future-presentation 1/34
2nd Annual
MENA Nuclear
Construction
Conference
September 26‐27, 2011,
Nuclear Energy:
Can it
be
the
choice
for
sustainable future ?
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1
Energy demand growth
Is nuclear power an option?
K.A.CARE
Post Fukushima outlook
Research, Development &Innovation
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2
Projected growth in fossil fuel consumption fordomestic energy demand
Fossil fuel consumption fordomestic energy demand
MBOE/D1
1 MBOE/D = million barrels of oil equivalent per day 2 GW = gigawatt (power generation capacity)
3 Corresponding annual electricity demands: 240 TWh in 2010, 400 TWh in 2020, 640 TWh in 2030. TWh= terawatthour
8.3
3.4
20282010
At current pace, domestic consumption of fossil
fuels is expected to nearly triple by 2030
20302010 2020
Electricity peak demand3
GW2
43
71
120
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3
Ramifications of unabated growth in fuel consumptionto power the Saudi economy
Environmental
CO2 footprint
NOx
footprint
SO2 footprint
Strategic
Diminished swing
capacity
Compromised global energy stability
Economic Squandered economic opportunity of gargantuan
magnitude
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4
Energy demand growth
Is nuclear power an option?
K.A.CARE
Research, Development &Innovation
Post Fukushima outlook
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5
Breakdown of load profile in Saudi Arabia
1 1 5
2 9
4 3
5 7
7 1
8 5
9 9
1 1 3
1 2 7
1 4 1
1 5 5
1 6 9
1 8 3
1 9 7
2 1 1
2 2 5
2 3 9
2 5 3
2 6 7
2 8 1
2 9 5
3 0 9
3 2 3
3 3 7
3 5 1
3 6 5
Average annual load = 65% of annual peak load
Additional summer load = 35%
of annual peak load
Average winter load = 55% of annual peak load
3
2
1
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6
Load matching options
1 1 5
2 9
4 3
5 7
7 1
8 5
9 9
1 1 3
1 2 7
1 4 1
1 5 5
1 6 9
1 8 3
1 9 7
2 1 1
2 2 5
2 3 9
2 5 3
2 6 7
2 8 1
2 9 5
3 0 9
3 2 3
3 3 7
3 5 1
3 6 5
Multipurpose must-run technology
Summer-efficient + low
CAPEX/high OPEX technologies
Must-run generation technology, with
electricity generation as primary function
3
2
1
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8
Baseload demand Only mature technology available for Saudi Arabia that
is not based on fossil fuel and is economically viable
Demand centers,
based
on
industrialized
economy,
commensurate with nuclear generation profile
Fossil
fuel
saving High load factor high fossil fuel saving
Overall carbon
footprint
reduction
Negligible carbon footprint
Key enabler to industrial carbon footprint reduction
Is nuclear power an option?
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9
Theoretical technical ceiling for nuclear deployment by 2030
1 1 5
2 9
4 3
5 7
7 1
8 5
9 9
1 1 3
1 2 7
1 4 1
1 5 5
1 6 9
1 8 3
1 9 7
2 1 1
2 2 5
2 3 9
2 5 3
2 6 7
2 8 1
2 9 5
3 0 9
3 2 3
3 3 7
3 5 1
3 6 5
40 ~ 60 nuclear reactors connected
to the grid between 2020 and 203060
GW
110
GW
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10
Is nuclear power an option?
K.A.CARE
Research, Development &Innovation
Post Fukushima outlook
Energy demand growth
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11
April 17, 2010
The establishment of K.A.CARE
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12
“… use of alternative
sustainable and reliable
resources ... reduces
dependency on hydrocarbon resources …
and keep them as a
source for income for a
longer period of time...”
(Royal Order No. A/35,17/4/2010)
Sustainable and efficient
energy future for KSA
K.A.CARE mandate
Suggestedalternative
energy mix
Proposed
executionplans
Plans fordevelopmentof physical city
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13
Illustrative example of a plausible energy mix
Present
FossilMix
Wind /
Other Ren
Solar PV
Solar CST
Nuclear
New
Additional
Fossil
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14
High level milestones of alternative energy strategy Capacity
ramp up
Nuclear
Renew-
ables
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030
Sites for 1st wave
of reactors selectedvendors shortlisted
1st projectkicked off
Ground breakingon 1st reactor performed by 2014
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15
▪ Development of R&D
capabilities
▪ Development of
engineers, techniciansand other specialists
R&D and humancapital development
Policy
▪ Approval and publishing
of a national policy on
nuclear and renewableenergy
Investment vehi-cles and strategy
▪ Creation of Alternative
Energy Technology
Company▪ Setup of loan guarantees
and soft loan programs
Operating model
▪ Creation of holding
company for nuclear
power
▪ Formation of standaloneoff-taker for sector
▪ Development of laws and
regulation
▪ Creation of nuclear regulator
▪ Ratification of treaties
Laws andregulations
Overview of the execution plans
K.A.CARE’s plans to execute strategy are built around 5 important enablers, requiring
solid commitment and dynamic leadership
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16
Enabling the development of a sustainable energy mix
N
on
leg
F
amew
k
N
on
Eon
mic
F
amew
k
R&
D&
T
N
on
H
V
u
C
n
Sustainable Energy Mix
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17
National legal framework
1. National Policy Statement
2. National Nuclear Energy Law
3. National Renewable Energy Law
4. National Nuclear Regulator
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18
National economic and investment framework
2. Off Taker Organization
1. Off Taking Mechanism
3. Funding Mechanism
4. Economic &
Technology
Enablers
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19
Components of the K.A.CARE City
The KA-CARE city will includethe following
▪ National Sustainable Energy
Laboratory
▪ Industrial clusters
▪ Alternative energy farm
▪ Energy park
▪ Technical training institutions
▪ Technical incubators
▪ Commercial facilities
▪ Convention centers, exhibition
halls and other public amenities
▪ KA-CARE headquarters and
residential facilities
▪ Basic infrastructure
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20
Is nuclear power an option?
K.A.CARE
Research, Development &Innovation
Post Fukushima outlook
Energy demand growth
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21
The K.A.CARE Technical Program provides technicalcompetencies required to achieve its critical outcomes
Technical Program Operations
R&D
Planning,
Agenda
Economic,
Standards, and
Policy Analysis
Staffing ,
Equipment,
Buildings,
Operations
Funding
• Gov’t Funds
• Energy Rate Fees
• Private Endowments
Capacity
Building
Scholarships,
Outreach,
Training
R&D Program
NuclearTechnology,
RenewableEnergy,Energy
EfficiencyIndustrial
Development
ProgramIP Mgmt.,
Business
Development
National Strategy
• Mission / Vision
• Advisory Committee
• Technology ForesightGovernment
• Regulatory Support
•Management Support
People
• Existing Engineers
and Managers
• International Hires
Industry Formation
• New Ventures
• Technical Assistance
to Companies• Commercial
Partnerships
• Intellectual Property
Energy Workforce
• Researchers• Managers
• Plant Operators
Knowledge Production
• Publications
• Collaborations
• World Class Research
OutcomesInputs
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KA-CARE’s National Sustainable Energy Laboratoryprovides the foundation for the Technical Program
KA‐CARE
NATIONAL SUSTAINABLE
ENERGY LABORATORY
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The principle responsibility of the lab is execution of the R&Dand Innovation Program
This structure is influenced by world‐class practices at international
energy laboratories, such as the U.S. Dept. of Energy and European labs.
Nuclear
Program
Renewable
EnergyProgram
Energy
IndustrializationProgram
Energy Policy
&
Regulation
Support
Human Capacity
Development
R&D Planning
and Funding
Leadership Team
(structure TBD)Support
Services
City
Infrastructure
Development
Strategic
Management Office
Safety and
Security
Energy
EfficiencyProgram
SupportFunctions
Technology
Foresight
Knowledge
Management
System
Business
Intelligence
Cross‐Functional
TechnologiesProgram
Environmental
Health & Safety
R&D and
Innovation
Program
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24
Each program is focused on achieving KA-CARE goals whileengaging university and industry resources
Nuclear Program
Contribute to the sustainable use and industries related to atomic energy for peaceful purposes that supports people in the KSA. Build a technical base in the field of generating power and in the medical and industrial fields.
Renewable Energy Program
Renewable energy technology research and development program that enables significant and
optimized deployment of renewable technologies in desert environments
Energy Efficiency
Program
Technology and outreach program that enables efficient use of energy, cost savings, and
conservation of resources by KSA industry & residents.
Cross Functional Technologies Program
Provide support in key areas of technology that enable the mission directed programs
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25
Nuclear Strategic Objectives
2015 – Design, construct, staff, and commissiona new KACARE nuclear research facility
▪ Saudi nuclear leadership staff development
▪ Integration with domestic, foreign universities
▪ Regulatory and industrial support services
2021 – Enable KSA completion of safe andsustainable nuclear plants and enhanced
participation in the KSA nuclear technologyvalue chain
▪ Generation III or Generation III+ technology
2030 – Enable KSA deployment of advanced power plants and enhancedparticipation in the global advanced nuclear technology value chain
▪ Small modular reactors, High Temperature and Generation IV
▪ Innovative adaptation of global technologies to saline desert environments
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26
Detail: Research Reactor (continued)
KACARE National
Nuclear
Laboratory
▪ Support nuclear engineering education,
materials, licensing, safety, testing,
scientific, industrial and medical research
▪ No power
production
▪ Capability to handle large radioactive
sources
Partnerships, User Facilities, Budget▪ Possible partnership with power plant vendor
▪ Operate as a user facility with industry, KACST, KAU, KFUPM, KSU and KAUST
▪ Construction: $120‐$200 million
▪
Operations:
$75‐
$100
million/yr
▪ Reactor staffing: 100 – 300
▪ Technical Support Services staffing: 75‐150
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27
Is nuclear power an option?
K.A.CARE
Research, Development &Innovation
Post Fukushima outlook
Energy demand growth
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28
Historical perspective and lessons learned: TMI
Incompleteunderstanding
of nuclearreactor
fundamentals
Human factors
+ userinterfaceengineering
TMI
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29
Historical perspective and lessons learned: Chernobyl
Reactordesign
Inadequate
safetyculture
Chernobyl
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30
Historical perspective and lessons learned: Fukushima
Forcemajeure
Regulatorycapture
Fukushima
Hi t i l ti d l l d
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31
Nuclear reactor
design
and
construction:
Deploy the most mature and road‐tested
This is a ‘together’ process that must be managed
and conducted
as
such
Nuclear regulatory function:
Only an
independent
regulatory
body
can
be
expected to act and react safely
Nuclear reactor
operation:
Focus is critical, and should be strictly guided by the
industry’s best practice
Historical perspective and lessons learned:Key lessons for Saudi Arabia
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Thank you