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Sustainable Electric Power
Scott Norr, P.E.
EE 1001
September 22, 2015
Electric Power Delivery and Consumption Getting More
Complex• More Environmental Issues - SUSTAINABILITY• Greater Population Density• Larger Variety of Sources, Delivery Methods and
Loads• Aging Infrastructure Undergoing Life Extension• New Technology Blended with Old – Grid is Already
Pretty Smart
ELECTRIC DEMAND
Source: Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (www.eia.gov)
Demand growing 0.9% per year in U.S.
World Energy Consumption
505 QuadIn 2008
Source: Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (www.eia.gov)
US – 5% of populationusing 20% of world resources
Electric Grid – EfficiencyGeneration is the Weak Link
Courtesy of Tom FergusonLighting: 100 Lumps IN, 1 Lump OUT???
Electric Generation Changing to Meet Demand
• Large, Centralized Plants (Rarely, now)
• Small, Modular, Distributed Plants
• Also, Siting Renewable Generation where it makes Sense (and Profit)
Large Plants• Environmental Issues
• Fossil Fuels
• Location/Siting
• Outlet Transmission
HydroElectric No Longer “Clean Energy”3 Gorges Dam –
China – 20,000 MegaWatts
Hoover Dam – US – 2,000 MegaWatts
Eoearth.org
Large Plants (Cont.)
• We’ll See New Ideas for Big Plants:– Coal is dirty – so … “Clean Coal”!– Wind and Solar are expensive and intermittent:
Large-scale and Storage Needed– Geothermal has limited application: Low-Temp– Biomass puts pressure on agriculture: Cellulose– Nuclear is Tricky: Gen IV Nuclear?
Clean Coal 2% Growth in all Coal Gen, 345 GW in 2012 (Natural Gas is too cheap!!)
• Coal Gasification (Combined Cycle) - Low Emmissions• Potential for Carbon Sequestration
WIND 25% growth, 60 GW in 2012• Wind Generators currently very popular
(Several Thousand MWs in Upper Midwest
• More and more Cost Effective
(4 - 5 Cents/KWH)
• Not a Cure-All - never
windy when you need it most
• Difficult to Dispatch
Source: Town of Hendricks, MN
Solar Electricity 80% growth, 11 GW in 2012
• Photvoltaics– Electricity Directly from Sunlight– Low Conversion efficiency– Fairly High Cost
• Solar Potential:– US uses 100 Quad of Energy
each year– 38,200 Quad of Solar Energy
hits the lower 48 each year
• BUT ONLY WHEN THE SUN SHINES …
New Solar Ideas:• 3-D PhotoVoltaic Cells
– New Breakthroughs in Nano-Materials greatly increase the effective surface area of a Solar Cell and its ability to catch reflected light
– Theoretically 50%-70% efficient– Very High Cost
• Solar Concentrators– Simple Idea used in Space
– Collect More Sunlight for your Existing Cells
- Combine Solar Electric AND Solar Thermal• Graphene??
Current Photovoltaic Technologies
www.nrel.gov
Solar Flare
Fire safety and Electric Safety will lead to new regulations for Solar Panels
greentechmedia.com
Houston, We Have a Storage Problem:
Courtesy of Tom Ferguson
Renewables are not “Dispatchable”
If we couldStore energywhen availablefor use when it’s not….
Energy Storage Technology:We’re not ready yet
Source: Haresh Kamath, EPRI PEAC
Tesla Power Wall
92% “DC Efficiency”, Elon? What about AC?
92% under ideal duty for a NEW battery
Drops off quickly for irregular charge/ discharge profile
Drops off to 80% with age
Another 3-5% loss to make AC (Inverter losses)
Valøenaa, et. al. – “THE EFFECT OF PHEV AND HEV DUTY CYCLES ON BATTERY AND BATTERY PACK PERFORMANCE
Tesla Economics
Tesla adds about $0.10 per kWh toany installation (such as solar or wind)
At present in MN, Net Metering Cost Recovery makes this unattractive
Future changes to rates (real-time price, PP Tariffs) could change the economics drastically!
Geothermal 5% Growth, 3 GW in 2010
• Extract Hot Water from the Earth
• Use the Hot Water (low temp) or Flash to Steam (high temp)
• 11 GW installed capacity worldwide (2010)
• Capacity growing at 5% worldwide (5yr Avg)
• Excellent Idea for Home Use – Ground Source Heat Pumps
Binary-Cycle Plant (Geothermal)
Nuclear ….Is It BACK? 0% growth, 100 GW in 2012
• Updated LWR Designs are being permitted• March 11, 2011 – Earthquake in Japan, leading to
nuclear reactor meltdown• Next Generation Nuclear Reactors (Gen IV)
– Modular (example: 25 MW Modules), add more modules to make a bigger plant
– Fuel Flexible – Uranium, Thorium (More abundant resource)
– A Promising Design: Pebble-Bed Modular Reactor
• Temperature moderated with Helium or Nitrogen
• Fuel encased in pebbles – ‘safe’, easy to handle
Pebble-Bed Reactor
Source:
Black and Veatch
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011 25
Incremental Transmission CostsVariable Costs,Including FuelFixedCosts
CapitalCosts
2015 2030
Levelized Electricity Costs for New Plants,2015 and 2030
DEMAND SIDE
• Conservation Through:
Market Pricing
Efficient Products
IBM Predicts the Future of Electric Energy Use
www.ibm.com: “The future of energy and utilities”
Market Pricing
• Utilities MUST and will adapt (slowly!) to the changing market:
- Energy Prices becoming De-Regulated
- Shop around for a better provider
- Time of Day Rates
- New Equipment to Automate Pricing:
- Smart Meters
- Smart Appliances
Minnesota PowerTime-of-Day Rate
(Pilot Program)On-peak: + 1.5 cents
Off-peak: - 3 cents
Critical Peak: + 77 cents
Smart Meters
• Talks to Electric Company • Talks to Consumer About
Hourly Prices and Hourly Consumption
• Tells Appliances what current Price is
• Shops Around for a Better Rate?
Source: elster.com and en.wikipedia.org
Efficient Products• Smart Appliances run
only when energy is cheapest, talk to each other and to the Electric Utility
• Passive Solar Thermal Designs and Devices
• Energy Efficient Home Designs and Ground-Source Heat Pumps
Sustainability
• More than Conservation
• More than Smart Energy Use
• Being Responsible with ALL resources and Preserving Them for the Future
• “7th Generation” Concept
Sustainability at UMD
umdsustain.wp.d.umn.edu
CONCLUSIONSNew Social Pressures and New Technologies are
both changing and complicating the way we convert and use energy
In a World with 7.3 Billion People (9 Billion by 2030), We MUST become more mindful of How and Why We Use Energy.
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf)
WEB References• National Renewable Energy Labs
– http://www.nrel.gov/
• Electric Power Research Institute– http://www.epri.com/
• US Dept. of Energy– http://www.energy.gov/
• Energy Information Association– http://www.eia.gov/