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Sustainability and risk management of Pacific
salmon under the changing climate and catastrophic
earthquake and tsunami in coastal ecosystems
around Japan
Masahide Kaeriyama, Yuxue Qin,
Yosuke Koshino, and Hideaki Kudo
Faculty and Graduate School of Fisheries Sciences
Hokkaido University
Topics
Climate change and production trend of
Pacific salmon
Human impacts for Pacific salmon:
- Hatchery salmon
- Global warming
Conclusion
Climate change and production
trend of Pacific salmon
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Mil
lio
n f
ish
Year
Annual change in catches of Pacific salmon in the North Pacific Ocean
1920-2009
PINK
CHUM
SOCKEYE
CHINOOK
COHO
1924/25 1947/48 1976/77
1998/99
Production trend of Pacific salmon Synchronizing with the climate regime shift
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
K
ALPI
R2=0.868,
(F=462, P<0.001, n=72)
K (
mill
ion
fis
h)
AL
PI
Year class
Temporal changes in ALPI and carrying capacity (K) of three species (sockeye, chum, and pink salmon)
Salmon carrying capacity significantly synchronized with the long-term climate change
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
Pink Chum Sockeye
Carrying capacity trend Pink: stable?
Chum: stable?
Sockeye: decrease
Ca = -0.0706t + 8.31 (R² = 0.2525*)
Ja = -0.0065t + 11.074 (R2=0.039)
Ru = 0.0311t + 9.0027 (R² = 0.1689)
Us = 0.0033t + 9.7931 (R² = 0.0097)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1990 1995 2000 2005
Canada
Japan
Russia
USA
Chum
Ca = -0.0694t + 9.1775 (R² = 0.1161)
Ja = -0.0376t + 9.8486 (R² = 0.2629*)
Ru = 0.0352t + 11.307 (R² = 0.2278*)
Us= -0.0027t + 11.609 (R² = 0.003)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1990 1995 2000 2005
Canada
Japan
Russia
USA
Pink
Annual change in
catch of chum and
pink salmon in the
North Pacific in
1990-2010 (by NPAFC Database)
Pink salmon
Canada Decrease
Japan Decrease
Russia Increase
USA Stable?
Chum salmon
Canada Decrease
Japan Decrease?
Russia Increase
USA Stable?
Ln
(C
atc
h , 1
06 )
Year
Southern populations: Decrease
Russian populations: Increase
Human impacts for Pacific
salmon: Hatchery salmon
Hatchery salmon Pink <20% Chum < 60% Sockeye <10% Annual changes in abundance of wild/hatchery salmon
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Pink
Chum
Sockeye
% Hatchery/Biomass
Year
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Wild
Hatchery
Chum
0
200
400
600
800
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Pink
Abun
da
nce (m
illio
n fis
h)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Sockeye
Wild
Hatchery Wild
Year
Wild
Hatchery Salmon Effects
RCC=(CC-B)/CC×100
RCC: Residual Carrying Capacity CC: Carrying Capacity B: Biomass FL: Fork length (mm) AGE: Mean age at maturity
RCC (%)
Carrying capacity and density-dependent effect of chum salmon
Hokkaido chum salmon
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
720
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
FL (
mm
)
RCC (%)
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Age
RCC (%)
r=0.979 (F=753.8, P<0.001)
r=0.879 (F=109.1, P<0.001)
This result suggests that
carrying capacity of chum
salmon is closely related not
only with the long-term climate
change, but also the
density-dependent effect,
the density-dependent growth
will also affect breeding
characters (e.g., body size and
fecundity) of the wild salmon
CHI TOK NIS YPO YPN YPD
CHI 0.000
TOK 0.000 0.000
NIS 0.013 0.034 0.000
YPO 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.000
YPN 0.039 0.027 0.145* 0.013 0.000
YPD 0.211** 0.160** 0.486** 0.168** 0.059** 0.000
Pairwise population Fst estimated between chum salmon populations
*P<0.05 **P<0.01
Genetic differentiation of Yurappu River chum salmon Variable nucleotide sites in the 481 bp 5’ portion of mtDNA control region
Yurappu River
Oct. (YPO)
Nov. (YPN)
Dec. (YPD)
Chitose R.
(CHI)
Tokachi R.
(TOK)
Nishibetsu R.
(NIS)
CHI
TOK
NIS
YP
Mixed population Endemic population
Endemic Transplanted
Esca
pe
ment
Spawning time Early Late
Genetic
Disturbance
Yurappu River chum salmon remains a native stock in the late-
run, but is intermingled with populations introduced from other
rivers by the artificial hatchery program.
Genetic Influence of Hatchery Salmon
Fig. 2. Haplotype
distribution of chum
salmon populations in the
Tedori and Gakko rivers.
Haplotype
Hp-1
Hp-2
Hp-3
Hp-4
Hp-5
Fig.3. Haplotype distribution of chum salmon
populations in Japan/ (modified from Sato et
al. 2001)
Genetic Influence of Hatchery Salmon (2) Tedori R.
100
55.
6 99.6
69.1
95.9
55.
7
Unrooted tree based on
genetic distance between
haplotypes.
•Tedori River received a massive seed-
transplantation of chum salmon from the Chitose
Salmon Hatchery during 1980s and 1990s.
•Tedori River chum salmon were closely related with
Chitose and Tokachi River populations, and did not
show the genetic differentiation with Tokoro River
population, despite no-seed- transplantation from
this river in Hokkaido.
•This result shows that a part of Tedori River chum
salmon receive gene flow and disturbance following
the seed transplantation from not only Chitose
River, but also other rive populations in Hokkaido.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 Native Non …
A
Tota
l num
ber
of
juvenile
chum
salm
on (
mill
ions)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 Western Pacific Eastern Pacific Nemuro Okhotsk
B
Tota
l num
ber
of
juvenile
A. Total number of both native and non-native juvenile chum
salmon released into the Chitose River. B. Total number of
juveniles transplanted from each region and released into the
Chitose River.
Chitose Salmon Hatchery
• Chitose Salmon Hatchery (CSH) play a
role of a center of salmon hatchery
program and main base of salmon seed
transplantation in Japan.
• Chitose River chum salmon population
extremely decreased and could not
reproduce by 1960s because of the
overfishing.
• The CSH released a lot of juvenile
transported from almost all populations
around Hokkaido during 1960s and
1980s.
• So, the massive seed transplantation
from the CSH caused that almost all
early-run populations were genetically
disturbed in Japan since the 1980s.
Genetic-disturbance for Japanese chum salmon
Human impacts for Pacific
salmon: Global warming
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Mean SST isothermal diagrams around Japan in September
2010: S 2009: W 1989: W 1990: W 1991: S 1992: W 1993: W 1994: S 1995: W 1996: S 1997: W 1998: W 1999: S 2000: S
2001: W 2002: W 2003: W 2004: W 2005: S 2006: S 2007: S 2008: S 2009: W 2010: S 2011: S 2012: S
Tsushima Warm Current
S: Strong, W: Weak
Weak: 2,407±1,028 thousands (N=14) Strong: 1,478±785 thousands (N=10)
(ANOVA: F=4.314, P<0.05)
Run
siz
e b
y S
ep. (t
housands)
Year
Annual change in the run size of early-population chum salmon returning to the Japan Sea coast in Hokkaido.
Esca
pe
ment
0 5
10 15 20
8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1
1986-90 (mean 2,402 thousand fish)
0 5
10 15 20
8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1
0 5
10 15 20
8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1
0 5
10 15 20
8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1
0 5
10 15 20
8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1
0 5
10 15 20
8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1
0 5
10 15 20
8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1
0 5
10 15 20
8 9E 9M 9L 10E 10M 10L 11E 11M 11L 12E 12M 12L 1
1976-80 (mean 976 thousand fish)
1970-75 (mean 873 thousand fish)
1981-85 (mean 1,885 thousand fish)
1991-95 (mean 2,943 thousand fish)
1996-2000 (mean 2,843 thousand fish)
2001-2005 (mean 3,343 thousand fish)
2006-2010 (mean 2,995 thousand fish)
Return season
Long-term change in escapement
pattern of Hokkaido chum salmon
•1970-80s: Bimodality (Early & Late runs)
•1990s-ealy 2000s: Late run disappeared by
hatchery selection for salmon fisheries industry
•Since 2006: Faint sigh on decline in early run and
increase in late run in order to the global warming
•Early run: Mixed (& artificial disturbed) population
•Late run: Wild population
Wild population:
Important Genetic Resources
Trophic level: Wild>Hatchery salmon in the Yurappu River
Please see a poster of FIS-P-4.
Prediction about the Global Warming effect on chum salmon in the North Pacific Ocean based on the SRES-A1B scenario
(Kaeriyama 2012)
Global Warming Effect on Chum Salmon in the North Pacific
● At present, the global warming is affecting:
- Positively & directly for increases in growth at age-1 and survival of Hokkaido chum salmon through the SST (sea surface temperature) during summer and autumn in the Okhotsk Sea since the late 1980s
- Negatively for the spawning migration of early-run populations returning to Japan since the late 1990s
● In the Future, the global warming will affect:
- Decrease in their carrying capacity for reducing distribution area in the Bering Sea
- Moving to the northern area (e.g., the Chukchi Sea)
- Strong density-dependent effect will occur
- Wintering area change from the Gulf of Alaska to the Northwestern Subarctic Gyre
- Hokkaido chum salmon population will lose migration route to the Okhotsk Sea by 2050 and will be crushed by 2100
Conclusion
Conceptual Diagram on the Sustainable Adaptive-Management of Pacific Salmon in Japan
Feedback control
Monitoring - Climate change - Biological information
(body size, age composition, breeding & genetic characters
- Condition of river ecosystem, etc.
Action plan (& Modeling) - Conservation: Natural
freshwater ecosystems - Protection: wild salmon - Sustainable hatchery
program
Will we be able to use the ocean organisms as seafood in the future?
What do we need for seafood security and marine ecosystem sustainability in present and future?
Education
- Paradigm shift from the traditional fisheries science to the new ecological fisheries science in the advanced education
- Dietary education for kids食育
e.g. “local production for local consumption” 地産地消
How do we establish the sustainable fisheries and aquaculture management based on the ecosystem approach?
Risk Management: Adaptive management & Precautionary principle
1) Adaptive learning: Learning by doing, Responsibility of risk exposition
2) Feedback control: Monitoring, Modeling
- Fisheries: Long-term climate change (e.g., Global warming, Regime shift), Carrying capacity
- Aquaculture: Food security, Conservation of marine ecosystem, Water pollution
Sustainability for ocean ecosystem conservation and seafood security
We should recognize to live in the earth ex dono ecosystem service, and know natural threats
Carrying capacity in the marine ecosystem “More than enough is too much”
Fisheries Industry : Economic efficiency→Ecosystem Approach