Sustainability and

Globalization

Sustainability:

“meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

-from the United Nations General Assembly (1987) Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future.

Sustainability involves:The EnvironmentEconomicsSociologyPolitics

Why Sustainability is Global:The Environment is Global:

If a country tried to act sustainably… …would Global Warming cease for that country?

Why Sustainability is Global:The Environment is Global:

If only one country tried to act sustainably… …would ocean fish supplies replenish?

Why Sustainability is Global:

The Economy is Global:

If a country incorporates the cost to the environment into the price of their product (thus increasing it)………buyers will just buy from a country with the less expensive product (thus less environmentally friendly)

Sustainability:

In order to meet the needs of future generations, we need to understand how many people will be on Earth.

SustainabilityandGlobalization:

Population as an environmental issue

Reasons population is a sustainability issue:

Ecological Footprint:

Use of resources

Use of landGeneration of waste

Ecological Footprint:“The Ecological footprint measures the

amount of biologically productive land and water that are required to produce the resources an individual, population, or activity consumes and to absorb the waste they generate…”

-from The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2009

Ecological Footprint:Currently, for the Earth to support the

population of 6.79 billion people, 1.8 global hectares (gha) are available for each person.

Ecological Footprint:Currently, for the Earth to support the

population of 6.79 billion people, 1.8 global hectares (gha) are available for each person.

As population increases, less hectares are available for each person.

Ecological Footprint:Currently, for the Earth to support the

population of 6.79 billion people, 1.8 global hectares (gha) are available for each person.

As population increases, less hectares are available for each person.

Right now, each person requires an average global footprint of 2.6 global hectares (gha).

Population Dynamics

Exponential vs. Linear Growth

Exponential GrowthAny quantity that grows or decays by a fixed percent at regular intervals

Usually by a percentage of the base population rather than by a fixed amount.

Ex: Annual growth of 1% vs. X number of people

Linear GrowthWhen growth is by a fixed amount regardless of base population.

Population growth ratePercent by which the population will change each year

Population growth rateThe percent that the population will change by each year.

Calculated by subtracting the death rate from the birth rate.

Population growth rateThe percent that the population will change by each year.

Calculated by subtracting the death rate from the birth rate.

For U. S. the growth rate of 0.69% doesn’t include population increases due to immigration.

Doubling timeTime period over which a population doublesExample: Growth rate of 1% will result in doubling time of 70 years.

Doubling timeFor U. S., the growth rate of 0.69%results in doubling time of ~101 years. (doesn’t include immigration)

For world, the growth rate of 1.18% results in doubling time of 59 years.(don’t need to consider immigration)

Doubling timeFor world, the growth rate of 1.18%

results in doubling time of 59 years.

In Pakistan, population growth rate is higher than average: 1.551%, while in Japan it is much lower: -0.077%.

Following a 1.18% world growth rate, in 2069, world population could be: 2 x 6.79 billion or 13.58 billion.

But only if the population growth rate remains constant

The Growth rate is decreasing.

Medium UN projections suggest population will even out at about 9.6 billion ~2050.

World growth rate is expected to decline:

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldgrgraph.php

Why is the growth rate decreasing?

Why is the growth rate decreasing?Need to look at Fertility rates.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)Average number of children born to women during their reproductive years.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)Average number of children born to women during their reproductive years.

In 2008: average global TFR was 2.6 births per woman.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)Average number of children born to women during their reproductive years.

In 2008: average global TFR was 2.6 births per woman.

(1.6 in developed countries; 2.8 in developing countries)

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)In 2008: average global TFR was 2.6 births per woman.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)In 2008: average global TFR was 2.6 births per woman.

In 1960: average global TFR was 4.8 births per woman.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)In 2008: average global TFR was 2.6 births per woman.

In 1960: average global TFR was 4.8 births per woman.

This decrease contributes the decrease in the population growth rate.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)Corresponds to level of education of women

What is the ideal fertility rate?

Probably a Replacement Level fertility rate:

the number of children a couple must give birth to in order to replace themselves.

2.1 in developed countries2.5 in developing countries

What is the ideal fertility rate?Probably the Replacement Fertility Rate

A Replacement Level fertility rate will NOT immediately stop population growth.

What is the ideal fertility rate?A Replacement Level fertility rate will NOT

immediately stop population growth. The “population momentum” delays the

effect of the lower fertility rate.

Population MomentumPopulation momentum

can affect ideal population rate

“Population momentum” refers to the effect of a large percent of the population being of childbearing age (or moving toward it).

The “population momentum” delays the effect of a lower fertility rate as current children grow up and bear their own children.

For a few generations, the absolute number of births will exceed deaths, even if the childbearing population reproduces at replacement rate (2.1-2.5).

Limits on Population growthResources

In nature, famine keeps population in checkResults in a “Logistic” growth curve:

TimeNu

mb

er

of

Ind

ivid

uals

Limits on Population growthBlue line is at the “Carrying Capacity”

the maximum population the habitat can sustain without degradation.

Carrying Capacity

TimeNu

mb

er

of

Ind

ivid

uals

What is Earth’s Carrying Capacity?We do not know.

Carrying Capacity

TimeNu

mb

er

of

Ind

ivid

uals

What is Earth’s Carrying Capacity?We do not know.Can the Earth support 9.6 billion people in

~2050?

Carrying Capacity

TimeNu

mb

er

of

Ind

ivid

uals

What is Earth’s Carrying Capacity?Global Footprint Network says we already

use 1.4 times what the Earth can provide without degradation.

Carrying Capacity

TimeNu

mb

er

of

Ind

ivid

uals

What is Earth’s Carrying Capacity?Global Footprint Network says we already

use 1.4 times what the Earth can provide without degradation.

Others propose that technology will increase the carrying capacity.

What is Earth’s Carrying Capacity?Global Footprint Network says we already

use 1.4 times what the Earth can provide without degradation.

Others propose that technology will increase the carrying capacity.

To put it another way: Some believe that it is possible to use technology to solve….