Upload
shannon-marcus-lane
View
215
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Sustainability and Climate Change: Trends and Solutions
Jonathan LashWorld Resources Institute
http://www.wri.org
Millennial N. Hemisphere (AD1000-1999)
Source: IPCC TAR
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations
270280290300310320330340350360370
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
part
s pe
r m
illio
n vo
lum
e
Mauna Loa (1958-present)
Siple Station (1750-)
299 ppmv
Highest in last 420,000 yrs
370 ppmvMost recent
Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm
Global CO2 Emissions Growth
August 28, 2005
Photo Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team
Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Trends
The Frequency of Weather Related Disasters
Data:
Swiss Re 2005
Dramatic Changes: An Ice-free Arctic? 1979-2003:
Progressive Loss of Arctic Ice
Antarctic Ice
New Patterns of Pest Damage
The New York Times, June 25, 2002
Amazon Drought
1960 – World’s 6th largest lake
1963 – 2001 shrunk 95%, wetlands spoilt
Source: UNEP – ONE PLANET MANY PEOPLE: Atlas of our Changing Environment
Lake Chad
Water withdrawals from rivers/lakes doubled since 1960
Changes in Ocean Circulation
• Transect at 23º N latitude– Measurements
taken in 1957, 1981, 1992, 1998, 2004
• Indicates a 30% reduction in ocean circulation volume since 1957
Source: Ocean current figure: www.NASA.govTransect information: Bryden, Harry L. et al. "Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N." Nature 438: 655-657. 1 December 2005
• That’s What One Degree Gets Us
• Where to Next?
Projections of CO2 and Temperature to 2100
Drought Expectations
The Palmer Index is most effective in determining long term drought—a matter of several months—and is not as good with short-term forecasts (a matter of weeks). It uses a 0 as normal, and drought is shown in terms of minus numbers; for example, minus 2 is moderate drought, minus 3 is severe drought, and minus 4 is extreme drought.
Scenario of damages in 2050
Source: The Guardian, based on Pentagon report
People at Risk from a 44 cm sea-level rise by the 2080s
(Assuming 1990s Level of Flood Protection)
Source: IPCC TAR.
A More Poisonous Poison Ivy
Temperature Projections and Risk
Assumed Advances In• Fossil Fuels
• Energy intensity• Nuclear
• Renewables
The “Gap”Gap
technologies• E.g. CCS
Stabilizing CO2
Base Case and “Gap” Technologies
Source: Jae Edmonds, PNNL/Univ MD
20552005
14
7
Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year
1955
0
Currently
projected path
Flat path
Historical emissions
1.9
2105
14 GtC/y
7 GtC/y
Seven “wedges”
Wedges
O
Source: Robert Socolw, www.princeton.edu/~cmi
Energy Efficiency
Coal-based Synfuels with CCS
Wind power
Reforestation
Mass transit
Stabilization Triangle
2004 2054
7 GtC/y
14 GtC/y
Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges
Carbon Capture & Storage
Adapted from:
Robert Socolw, www.princeton.edu/~cmi
Biofuels
Managing Risk: Measure/Manage
Dupont
Global Greenhouse Gases
•Alcoa Inc.•Cargill Dow LLC•Delphi Corporation•Dow Chemical Company•DuPont•FedEx Kinko's•General Motors•IBM•Interface•Johnson & Johnson•NatureWorks LLC•Pitney Bowes•Staples•Starbucks
GPMDG
GE: Ecomagination
Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing
Real-world examples
BrazilBiofuels for transportReducing the economic impact of oil imports and supporting the rural economy
ChinaInnovative transport approachesPromoting mobility while avoiding urban infrastructure and oil supply constraints
South AfricaCarbon capture and storageFinding ways to reduce the impact of coal in developing countries
IndiaRenewable energy in rural electrificationProviding electricity faster and safer to 500 million people
Farmer demonstrations in India around electricity access and
pricing
Electrification will have a major impact on climate change without new
policies and approaches
IEA, 2003
Mill
ion p
eople
wit
hout
ele
ctri
city
New York City circa 1950
New York City December 2001