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Suriname Macroeconomic outlook and investment opportunities The 38th Annual Meeting of the Islamic Development Bank Group Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan, May 20 th 2013 Presentation by the Governor of the Central Bank of Suriname, Mr. Gillmore Hoefdraad

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SurinameMacroeconomic outlook 

and investment opportunitiesThe 38th Annual Meeting of the Islamic Development Bank Group  

Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan, May 20th 2013

Presentation by the Governor of the Central Bank of Suriname, Mr. Gillmore Hoefdraad

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Content

o Performance and external assessments.o Macroeconomic risks and challenges.o Mining sector highlights.o Investment opportunities in Suriname.

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Where is Suriname?

o Suriname, formerly Dutch Guiana, is strategically located on the Caribbean coast of South America, between Guyana and French Guyana. 

o Landmass is 163,820 km2, of which 80% Amazonian rainforest. Population is 534,189.

o Suriname is proud to be an official member of the Islamic Development Bank since November 1997 as the first member country in the Western Hemisphere. 

o Suriname has  an upper‐middle income country with a GDP of US$4.7bn.

o Suriname is a democratic country with a strong legal system. 

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o Stable government• Dutch colony from 1667 until 1954 (Dutch Guiana).• Constituent country of the Kingdom of the Netherlands from 1954 until independence in 1975.

• Legal system based on Dutch civil law.• Dutch is official language; English widely spoken.• Constitutional, democratically representational republic.

• President Desi Bouterse, elected July 2010.o Robust economy

• GDP per capita 2013: projected US$9,100.• GDP growth 2012‐16: projected 5% on average.• Credit Rating: Moody’s Ba3; S&P BB‐• Government debt: <20% of GDP.

o Established natural resource industry• Main exports: gold, alumina, and crude oil.• Government actively encourages foreign investment.

Republic of Suriname: a land of opportunity

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Paramaribo (Capital City) famously diverse

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Solid and stable income growth

6

o Stable macroeconomic policies and buoyant export receipts have led to solid and continued growth.

o Solid growth despite global financial turmoil and limited global demand.o Could reach the “high income” category in 2017.

4,5505,283

5,832

6,9217,490

8,329 8,0879,010

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Per capita GDP (in US$)

Upper middle‐income($3,976‐$12,275)

Lower middle‐income($1,006‐$3,976)

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Buoyant export receipts

7

o Gold exports continue to perform well with high prices and increasing export volumes.

o Staatsolie’s exports and payments to the government grew only marginally in 2012.

o Alumina continues to perform poorly, reflecting poor conditions in the world aluminum markets.

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Export composition and diversification

8

o Alumina exports increased only marginally, but gold exports have increased fiftyfold since 2000. 

o Diversification has reduced vulnerabilities to exogenous shocks.

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Employment growth

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o Growth in recent years has been driven by private sector growth.o Public sector employment has grown only moderately.o Unemployment rate below industrialized country levels.

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

0

25

50

75

100

 2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012

Private and public sector employment (in thousands) and unemployment rate (in percent of workforce) 2005‐2012 

Public sector employment

Private sector employment

Unemployment rate (right axis)

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Fiscal performance

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o Overall balance deteriorated prior to elections in 2010.

o Expenditure on goods and services in 2011 increased on account of arrears repayments.

o Fiscal balance 2012 estimated at ‐2.8% of GDP. 

‐2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Government expenditure and outcome 2005‐2012 (% of GDP)

Capital expenditure

Wages and salaries

Goods and services

Overall balance (right axis)

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Low inflation for almost 2 years

o Inflation has fallen to annualized levels of less than 5%  since May 2011.o Food prices create inflation volatility due to changing domestic supply.

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Monthly inflation rates  2010‐12

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Central Government Debt

o Debt levels have fallen due to:o High economic growth.o Restructuring and repayment of 

arrears.o Fiscal surpluses or deficits smaller 

than GDP growth. o Debt increase in 2010‐2011:

o Fiscal deficits.o Exchange rate adjustment.o Government increase in deposits 

at CBvS instead of liability reductions.

o No arrears.

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Domestic debt

External debt

Debt ratios 2005‐2012 (% of GDP)

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CBvS gross international reserves

13

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Gross international reserves in US$ millions (right axis)

Gross reserves in months of imports (left axis)

Central Bank gross international reserves 2005‐12

Strong export growth and tight fiscal and monetary policies have led to a significant increase in reserves and reserve coverage.

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Outside assessments: IMF

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Economy growing at a steady pace, buoyed by strong activity in gold and oil sectors.

Impressive stabilization of the economy in 2011 due to authorities’ policies. 

Key achievements: a unified foreign exchange market, price stability, and significant fiscal gains. 

A positive example for the Caribbean as a meaningful and comprehensive adjustment, well designed, properly sequenced, and implemented with commitment and resolve. 

Sound policies are expected to continue.  Crucial structural reforms  will allow Suriname to grow in a 

sustainable way.

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IMF: Strong Medium‐Term Outlook

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Real GDP growth (annual percentage change)

4.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0

GDP deflator(annual percentage change)

7.4 20.8 7.6 6.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Overall fiscal balance ‐3.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.6

Non‐mineral balance ‐8.0 ‐8.1 ‐7.8 ‐7.4 ‐6.9 ‐6.1 ‐5.6 ‐5.0

Total public debt 18.5 19.1 18.6 18.1 17.8 16.9 15.9 15.0

External currentaccount balance

6.4 5.5 ‐0.1 ‐2.1 ‐4.1 ‐1.3 2.4 3.1

Gross International reserves (months of imports)

4.9 5.3 5.6 6.6 7.6 8.2 8.6 8.4

Medium –Term Outlook ( in percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

Projected Est.

Sources: Suriname Authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections

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Outside assessments: credit ratings

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o Credit rating upgrades due to:o Stable macroeconomic 

environment.o Elimination of arrears.o Relative low debt levels.o Structural improvement 

of BOP.o Robust medium term 

growth prospects.o Ongoing investments.

o Recent upgrade by S&P: BB‐ stable to BB‐ positiveo Conditions for further rating upgrades:

o Fiscal strengthening through economic reforms.o Large investments that boost GDP growth and government revenue.

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Macroeconomic risks and challenges

o External risks• Significant exposure to gold and oil price volatility.• Limited exposure to changes in global output and demand.• Limited exposure to rising interest rates.

o Domestic risks and challenges• Inflation and exchange rate pressure through wage‐price spirals or 

import demand.• Outdated laws and regulations.• Inflexible and outdated public sector.• Limited debt‐tolerance due to vulnerability to exogenous shocks.

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Commodity price shocks

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o Sharp swings in international alumina prices were the leading cause of 2 episodes of near‐hyperinflation in the 1990s, coupled with inadequate policy responses.

o Sharp falls in oil and alumina prices in 2008  led to external and internal imbalances.

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Mining revenue and government finances 

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o Mining revenue fell substantially during 2008‐10.o Fiscal and monetary policy remained expansionary until 2010.o Political 

considerations prior to the 2010 elections prevented a swifter policy adjustment. 

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Managing risks

o The vulnerability to volatile commodity prices will be mitigated by:• Establishment of a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SSFS),• Tax and administrative reforms that will increase reliance on domestic 

sources of taxation. • Continued moderate fiscal and monetary policies.

o The risk of domestic demand shocks will be mitigated by:• Placing new financial flows into the SSFS, • Active and forward‐looking fiscal and monetary policies.

o The limited debt tolerance will be mitigated by:• Conservative public investment and debt strategy going forward.• Active risk management of liabilities.

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Reforms are key to limit risks

o Central Bank shift towards use of indirect market‐based instruments.o Development of the local money and capital markets. o Gradual de‐dollarization of the economy.o Establishment of the Sovereign Wealth Fund to reduce the impact of 

oil and gold price volatility and stabilize and diversify income streams. o Modern and transparent budget preparation and execution 

procedures. o New legal framework and modernization of the tax regime.o Deregulation, privatization, and modernization of administrative 

processes to allow more private sector investment and competition.o Increased reliance on public‐private partnerships in lieu of public 

investment. 

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Mining sector highlights

Oilo Fiscal revenue increased from US$70 million in 2005 to around US$250 million in 2012.o Investment program includes expansion of the refinery, exploration of recoverable reserves, and 

development of alternative energy (hydro and bio‐ethanol).o Exploration and production agreements continue with several international oil companies.o Refinery expansion and an ethanol pilot project expected to go online in 2015.Goldo Fiscal revenue from Rosebel increased from US$5 million in 2005 to around US$150 million in 2012. o New large‐scale mines by Iamgold and Newmont are  expected to come online in the next 3‐5 years.o Small‐scale informal gold operations contribute about 60% of gold exports or around US$1 billion in 2012.o The Government is putting in place laws and on‐site measures to modernize and formalize the large 

informal gold sector, limit its ecological impact, improve health and safety, and increase fiscal revenue.Bauxiteo The slump in international aluminum prices has created problems for Suralco’s parent company Alcoa. o Maintaining low production levels using bauxite from old mines, while a new mine is being developed.

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Private sector investment – miningo Mining

• Gold mining: Existing mine expects to increase production by 2016, while a new gold mine is expected to begin operations in 2017.  A 30% stake was recently approved by Parliament in the IAMGOLD goldmine 

expansion ( $1.5bn).  A 25% stake in the Newmont Mining Merian gold project ($1.2bn) is currently in 

Parliament for approval.• Bauxite mining:  New mines in the East are being developed by Alcoa to 

feed the underutilized alumina refinery. A large deposit in the West at Bakhuis can be tapped, including additional hydropower at Kabalebo.

• Other minerals: Exploration plays for copper, manganese, nickel, and diamonds

o Ancillary services• Infrastructure: Significant road and bridge construction needed.• Transportation: Mining companies will subcontract ancillary services.• Mining inputs: Potential to substitute imports in the mining industry with 

local production, e.g., coconut fiber, chemicals, etc.

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o Small‐scale alluvial gold mining is extensive and wide‐spread 

• Government estimates 1Moz per year by artisans • Significant social and environmental impact due to 

poor techniques and use of mercury o Iamgold’s Rosebel Gold Mine is the first large‐scale gold 

operation • Total resources (incl. mined) 14Moz• Commenced production 2004; approx. 400,000oz 

per annum; cash cost $600 per ounce o Newmont is developing the Merian project around the 

Nassau Plateau in East Suriname • Total resources 8Moz; feasibility stage• Ongoing agreement negotiations with government 

o Many concessions are owned by local groups• Limited exploration activity• Limited  technical expertise or access to capital

Gold mining in Suriname

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Bakhuis mountains

o Potential for extensive bauxite mining, a new alumina refinery, and possibly an aluminum smelter.

o Potential for hydropower generation of around 450‐650 MW with 2 dams and generation stations.

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o Easily accessible.o Existing basic 

infrastructure would need to be rehabilitated. 

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Private sector investment – transport and infrastructure

o Comparative advantages• Most efficient harbor in the region.• Low wage and high productivity workforce. • Available know‐how and equipment in the local construction industry. • Supportive government.

o Transshipment services in Guyana and French Guiana• Port and airport facilities in neighboring countries are inadequate.

o Rapidly expanding domestic demand• Mining, industry, agriculture, trade, and tourism industries require 

better infrastructure and communications to rural areas and neighboring countries.

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Private sector investment – agriculture

o Comparative advantages• Ample farmland and fresh water resources.• Most efficient harbor in the region.• Competitive wage and high productivity workforce.• Supportive government.• New high margin agri‐sectors such as palm oil, bio‐diesel, cassava production

o Experience in large‐scale export agriculture• Bananas and rice have been exploited in large‐scale operations for the 

European market (ACP access).

o Available markets• French Guyana is a high‐cost producer that imports most foodstuffs. • Tropical foodstuffs can be easily shipped by sea or air to Europe.

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Private sector investment – tourism

o Eco and jungle tourism • Pristine Amazonian jungle, large rivers. • Will require investments to access the jungle at higher volume and lower costs.

o Medical and Health tourism• Health services for Dutch‐speaking Europeans. • Could include specialized surgeries and convalescent care.

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Public‐private partnerships

o Oil sector• Oil companies are actively engaged in exploration and expansion of the refinery 

capacity. • Suriname State Oil Company  (Staatsolie) signed exploration agreements with 

major oil companies such as  Petronas, Statoil Hydro, Apache Corporation, Murphy Oil, Kosmos Energy,  Chevron and Tullow Oil 

• Ancillary service provision and strategic partnerships are needed.o Privatization

• Government is aiming to sell public enterprises.• Utilities need significant investment. • Strategic partnerships are possible (oil industry, national airline, etc.).

o Infrastructure and energy• Road, bridge, and waterway needs are significant.• Energy needs are growing rapidly.• Government would welcome private sector participation in infrastructure 

investments. 

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Public‐private partnerships

o Location, location, location• Given its location Suriname is ideally positioned to become a regional 

logistical hub. • The enormous land‐locked northern part of Brazil and the South of 

Surinam could be unlocked.• Connecting the South American continent from North to South will 

require significant PPI infrastructure investments.

o Telecom /  ICT Sector• Data centres with Internet exchange point. • Suriname is strategically located out of the regional hurricane zones and 

free from natural disasters. • Suriname could be developed into a cost effective data hosting centre in 

the Western Hemisphere. • The current submarine datacables are hardly used.

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Inaugural sovereign bond‐issue

o The government of Suriname intends to issue a first time ever sovereign bond for US$ 600 million 

o Proceeds will be used for the financing of its equity share in planned gold mining joint ventures with IAMGOLD (approved by Parliament) and Newmont Mining (currently being discussed in Parliament)

o With the bond issuance, the government is also looking to raise funds for the State Oil company, Staatsolie N.V., to finance its large‐scale capital investment program.

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Small can be beautiful

o Short distance between policy‐makers, academia, private sector, and administration.

o Ability to swiftly modify institutional and legal frameworks.o Ability to swiftly identify shortcomings and secure sufficient international 

physical, financial, and human resources to address shortcomings. o Ability to swiftly adjust policy stance. Example 2011:

• Corrected the sharp deterioration in the fiscal position. • Increased non‐mining revenue to reduce reliance on volatile mining sector.• Reduced expenditure.• Addressed domestic and external arrears.• Moderated monetary policy.• Addressed exchange rate imbalance.

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Conclusion: making small beautiful

o We are addressing the inherent disadvantages of being small:• High concentration on a few key sectors            export promotion, 

avoidance of Dutch disease effects, SWF, increased non‐mining taxation. 

• Low debt tolerance            continued moderation of fiscal policies, reliance on multilateral borrowing.

o We are embracing the inherent advantages of being small:• Ease of policy adjustments             proactive and better‐informed 

policy‐making, shorter decision‐making lines, effective use of data collection mechanisms and modern technology in administration.

• Ease of institutional change            accessing specialized international expertise to modernize key institutions and legal framework.

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ECONOMIC DATA 2013 2030

Real GDP growth (%) 4.5 % 8%

GDP (USD bn): $4.9BN $20BN

Per capita (USD) $9,120 $27,000

Inflation (%) 5% 2-5%

Credit Rating BB-/Ba3/BB A+/A1/A+

SWF $0 $ 5 Bn ($10 Bn)

Long Term Vision 2030

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INSTITUTIONAL  2013 2030

UN Human development Index

Score: 0.68 (medium) Target: 0.85 (very high) to be in the top 40 countries

Inequality adjusted Human development Index

Score: 0.518 Target: 0.8 (to be in top40 countries)

Transparency International Corruption Index

Score: 37 Target: 80-90( to be in top 20 least corrupt countries)

Foreign Policy Failed States Index

Score:71.2 Target: 30-40( to be in top 30 successful countries)

World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index

Score:164 Target: 20 ( to be in the top 20 countries)

Long Term Vision 2030

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THANK YOU 

SURINAME: A land of opportunity

We hope to welcome you soon in Paramaribo, capital of Suriname!

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